Fewer quits and historically low layoffs & discharges mean fewer job openings, and less hiring to fill them. But that’s only part of it.

173,500 payroll jobs added on average per month in 12 months, instead of 242,000, but above 2018-2019 average of 171,900: preliminary annual benchmark revisions.

Huge undercount of immigrants since 2022 messes up employment data in the household survey.

New highs in employment: Construction, Professional & Business Services, Healthcare, Wholesale trade. Declines in Information.

Three-month averages have been steadfast: higher-than-normal job creation and wage increases.

Layoffs & Discharges drop further, and are far lower than before the pandemic, as employers cling to their workers.

Our Favorite Recession Indicator shows next recession keeps moving further out.