Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 46 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
Labor Market Is Just Fine Despite Dropping Federal Government Jobs, Media-Driven Moaning and Groaning, and Tariff Chaos by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 81 Comments The millions of immigrants that arrived in 2021-2024 finally get picked up in the data for labor force and total employment, which continued to spike.
Despite All Moaning and Groaning: Layoffs & Discharges Plunge, Hires and Voluntary Quits Rise, Driven by Private Sector Strength by Wolf Richter • Apr 29, 2025 • 123 Comments The labor market started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and it continued through March.
The Stock Market May Be in Trouble and Consumers May Be in a Sour Mood, But the Labor Market Is Just Fine by Wolf Richter • Apr 4, 2025 • 183 Comments Despite the furor over government job cuts, tariff chaos, and what not.
Underlying Labor Market Dynamics Still Tight Despite Highest Gov Layoffs & Discharges since Census Wind-Down of 2020 by Wolf Richter • Apr 1, 2025 • 15 Comments Hiring Begins to Shift to Private-Sector where Hiring Jumped, while Hiring by Governments Slumped.
Labor Market Dynamics Tighten Further. Job Openings, Quits, Hires Rise, Layoffs & Discharges Drop, Back Fed’s Wait-and-See by Wolf Richter • Mar 11, 2025 • 16 Comments The low point was in September. The Fed faces a scenario of re-accelerating inflation amid a retightening labor market.
Federal Government Layoffs & Quits Begin to Show up in the Jobs Data, Barely Dent Solid Labor Market by Wolf Richter • Mar 7, 2025 • 103 Comments Civilian employment at the federal government accounts for less than 1.9% of total payrolls.
There Hasn’t Been Much if Any Reduction in WFH in over Two Years, Despite the Hype about RTO by Wolf Richter • Feb 10, 2025 • 174 Comments Hopes that Return to Office will bail out office CRE seem premature: data on office attendance and Working from Home.
Huge Upward Adjustment to Employment & Labor Force as Wave of Immigrants is Finally Included, Unemployment Drops, Wage Growth Accelerates: The Annual Revisions Are Here by Wolf Richter • Feb 7, 2025 • 65 Comments The Fed, after complaining about missing immigrants in labor market data, now has further support for its pivot to wait-and-see.
Underlying Job Market Dynamics Retighten as Fed Moves any Rate Cuts into Distance amid Accelerating Inflation by Wolf Richter • Feb 4, 2025 • 113 Comments The low point was in September, which had spooked the Fed. But that’s over.
