This Strength of the Labor Market & Economy, amid Accelerating Inflation, Puts the Fed Back into Wait-and-See Mode by Wolf Richter • Jan 10, 2025 • 96 Comments Huge upward adjustment of total employment coming in February when the BLS incorporates the wave of immigrants into the data.
Labor Market Dynamics Retighten, Job Openings Jump Again. Fed Faces Scenario of Solid Job Market, Re-accelerating Inflation by Wolf Richter • Jan 7, 2025 • 113 Comments In light of this scenario, the Fed has been backpedaling on rate-cut expectations for two months.
San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge by Wolf Richter • Dec 26, 2024 • 85 Comments Housing Bust 2 reverses part of the “Housing Crisis” when people with good incomes could no longer afford to live in the City.
Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 126 Comments Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.
Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 83 Comments Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.
Labor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See? by Wolf Richter • Dec 6, 2024 • 73 Comments Payrolls & wages jump, prior 2 months revised higher, solid bounce-back from Hurricanes and Boeing strike. 3-month average payrolls +173,000!
Underlying Job Market Dynamics Begin to Retighten. The Fed Is Already Backpedaling on the Pace and Depth of Rate Cuts by Wolf Richter • Dec 3, 2024 • 99 Comments Job openings and voluntary quits jumped by the most in over a year, layoffs and discharges plunged.
Hurricanes Helene & Milton and the Boeing Strike Make Mess of Jobs Report. And Wages Surge by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2024 • 30 Comments Upon the data’s implications for inflation, the bond market puckered its lips: 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.35%, highest since early July.
Hiring Jumps for 3rd Month, Workers Cling to Jobs, Layoffs & Discharges Jump but Remain Low, Job Openings Fall by Wolf Richter • Oct 29, 2024 • 57 Comments Hurricanes in September & October and the Boeing strike will mess with labor market data for a few months; the Fed won’t get clear answers.
OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed? by Wolf Richter • Oct 4, 2024 • 232 Comments Pandemic distortions and millions of migrants suddenly entering the labor market, who are hard to track, have wreaked havoc on data accuracy.
