Slowing Supply of Immigrant Labor & Slowing Job Growth Keep the Job Market “in Balance” and the Unemployment Rate Low, Push Up Wages. Powell Talked about It by Wolf Richter • Aug 1, 2025 • 138 Comments The Fed’s dual mandate is “stable prices and maximum employment, not so much growth” in employment, he said at the press conference.
PCE Inflation Accelerates in Services and Goods. What Powell Is Waiting For by Wolf Richter • Jul 31, 2025 • 91 Comments Not everything rose. Prices fell for new vehicles, auto parts, auto accessories, and phones.
The Fed, Torn by Two Governor Dissents, Sticks to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Uncertainty by Wolf Richter • Jul 30, 2025 • 115 Comments “Uncertainty about the economy outlook” is back in full force in today’s statement, after it had “diminished” at the last meeting. QT continues.
Recklessly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $519 Billion since Debt Ceiling, Expected to Hit $37.8 Trillion by Yearend. $722 Billion in Treasury Auctions this Week Alone by Wolf Richter • Jul 29, 2025 • 108 Comments A Mississippi River of debt issuance. But the Treasury buybacks are small.
Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 107 Comments At the long end, the bond market is nervous.
30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 169 Comments The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$13 Billion in June, -$2.31 Trillion from Peak, to $6.66 Trillion. New Milestone: 3 Years of QT by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 95 Comments The new and improved Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sprang into action for one day at quarter-end on June 30.
Who Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2025 • 41 Comments Here’s who dumped and who bought over the years through Q1.
Fed Sees Hotter Inflation for Longer, Higher Unemployment, Slower Growth, “Dot Plot” Shifts More Hawkish but still Sees 2 Cuts in 2025. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Jun 18, 2025 • 120 Comments “Uncertainties” rule. Wait-and-see amid inflation fears and slowing growth.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$36 Billion in May, -$2.29 Trillion from Peak, to $6.67 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020. by Wolf Richter • Jun 5, 2025 • 56 Comments The Fed improves its Standing Repo Facility to prevent another repo market blowout as the balance sheet continues to drop.
