Federal Reserve

This Fed Meeting Must Have Been an Epic Circus

by Wolf Richter • Dec 10, 2025 • 164 Comments

Amid 3 dissenters in both directions, FOMC cuts by 25 basis points. “Dot Plot” sees 1 cut next year, 3 members see 1 hike. Reserve management purchases of T-bills begins.

In Edgy Bond Market, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3-Month High, 10-Year Yield Hits 1-Month High, Mortgage Rates Jump

by Wolf Richter • Dec 8, 2025 • 79 Comments

The expected rate cut gets complicated: A dovish Fed amid rising inflation can spook the bond market.

The Fed Will Talk a lot about “Reserve Balances” and “Reserve Management Purchases” at its FOMC Meetings

by Wolf Richter • Dec 8, 2025 • 59 Comments

What Are They? And why now?

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$37 Billion in November, -$2.43 Trillion from Peak, to $6.54 Trillion

by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2025 • 61 Comments

Standing Repo Facility at zero, after doing its job calming the repo market at month-end. QT ended on December 1, but in November, QT continued.

Mortgage Rates Are Not Too High. What’s too High Are Home Prices that Exploded by 40-70% in 2 Years, Creating the “Affordability Crisis”

by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2025 • 178 Comments

But there is a solution to this affordability crisis.

Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock

by Wolf Richter • Nov 27, 2025 • 80 Comments

Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.

Treasury Market Scuttles Hope for December Rate Cut, Doubts January Cut, after Hawkish Fed Minutes

by Wolf Richter • Nov 19, 2025 • 31 Comments

“Many participants suggested that … it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”

Another Sign that a Major Rethink of the Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Is Gaining Momentum

by Wolf Richter • Nov 17, 2025 • 103 Comments

Warsh, on the shortlist for Fed Chair, advocates for more QT, a smaller balance sheet, and lower short-term rates, in sync with Bessent.

Government Sold $694 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $38.2 Trillion, Treasury Yields Rise Further, Shift to T-Bills Begins

by Wolf Richter • Nov 14, 2025 • 145 Comments

Long-term Treasury yields under pressure, amid large auctions of notes and bonds, despite shift to T-bills.

Entire Treasury Yield Curve from 3 Months to 30 Years Has Risen since Fed’s Rate Cut. Mortgage Rates too. Bond Market Edgy about Inflation & Supply

by Wolf Richter • Nov 9, 2025 • 145 Comments

The 6-month Treasury yield sees Fed on hold in December. Cutting rates as inflation accelerates is a delicate operation that the bond market isn’t fond of.

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