Higher for Longer Inflation & Interest Rates Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings? Waiting for the 2-Year Treasury Yield to Overshoot by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2024 • 214 Comments Four decades of history say it’s not over until the 2-year yield overshoots the EFFR. It has undershot for a year, and inflation is taking off again.
PPI Inflation Spikes in Services and Finished Core Goods, Very Disconcerting by Wolf Richter • Feb 16, 2024 • 138 Comments Reheating services inflation isn’t a surprise. But the PPI for finished core goods saps hopes for goods “deflation” to hold down overall inflation.
It Sucks Being a Retailer in January and February. But Do Retail Sales Show Consumers Cut Back? by Wolf Richter • Feb 15, 2024 • 72 Comments A good time to look at seasonality and inflation/deflation in retail sales, especially as prices of goods have dropped.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: National Price Drops Further in January -18.3% from Peak. End of Easy Money by Wolf Richter • Feb 14, 2024 • 121 Comments Toronto houses -20% from peak, condos drop to 2-year low. Vancouver -8% from peak, Hamilton -25%, Victoria -14%. Calgary set new high.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation by Wolf Richter • Feb 13, 2024 • 291 Comments But that’s how inflation is, once out of the bottle: It serves up nasty surprises.
CRE Loans Coming Due in 2024 Balloon by 41%, to $929 Billion, as Loans that Matured in 2023 Weren’t Paid Off but Extended by Wolf Richter • Feb 12, 2024 • 92 Comments Extend and pretend kicks into high gear. For example, the $975 million mortgage on a San Francisco office tower.
Even Banks in Asia-Pacific (APAC) on the Hook for US Office CRE: Fitch by Wolf Richter • Feb 12, 2024 • 64 Comments That’s what “spread far and wide” means. During the US CRE bubble, yield-chasers not just in the US but globally gorged on invincible US CRE.
The $2 Trillion in Goods the US Exported in 2023: Led by Energy Products, Capital Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive by Wolf Richter • Feb 10, 2024 • 53 Comments The biggest export group — crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemicals — retraced part of the 50% spike as prices dropped.
Miles Driven Eke Out Record after Covid-Plunge: People Drive Less, but there Are More People by Wolf Richter • Feb 9, 2024 • 62 Comments But mass transit is still singing the remote-work blues. RTO not now?
Our Drunken Sailors’ Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, and Available Credit by Wolf Richter • Feb 9, 2024 • 113 Comments Credit cards are the dominant payment method, from reimbursed business travel to ecommerce and bar tabs. And some people use them to borrow.
