Global Stocks over the Long Term: the S&P 500, the Big Standout vs the Markets of Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Canada by Wolf Richter • Jan 1, 2025 • 53 Comments And how the decline of the yen and rupee impacted USD investors in Japanese & Indian stocks.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak by Wolf Richter • Dec 31, 2024 • 147 Comments The office-debt meltdown keeps getting worse. The motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. But now what?
Buyers’ Strike Continues: Pending Home Sales Remain Deep in the Frozen Zone though up a Tad from Rock Bottom by Wolf Richter • Dec 30, 2024 • 109 Comments Prices are still way too high, but… “Buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market”: NAR.
10-Year Treasury Yield Rose 100 Basis Points since September as the Fed Cut 100 Basis Points. Why the Historic Divergence? by Wolf Richter • Dec 27, 2024 • 222 Comments Treasury Yield Curve Steepens. Bond Market a Wee Bit Nervous?
San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge by Wolf Richter • Dec 26, 2024 • 85 Comments Housing Bust 2 reverses part of the “Housing Crisis” when people with good incomes could no longer afford to live in the City.
Who Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities? by Wolf Richter • Dec 24, 2024 • 116 Comments A hot question for an iffy situation. So here are the holders as of Q3.
Glut of New Completed Single-Family Houses for Sale Spikes to Highest since 2007, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021 But Are Still Way too High by Wolf Richter • Dec 23, 2024 • 149 Comments Lennar shocked the market by saying it’ll address this situation with further price cuts; its average price to drop by 16% from the peak in 2022.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 120 Comments Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.
After Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 59 Comments QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.
What Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done” by Wolf Richter • Dec 20, 2024 • 42 Comments Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.
