Who Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities? by Wolf Richter • Dec 24, 2024 • 116 Comments A hot question for an iffy situation. So here are the holders as of Q3.
Glut of New Completed Single-Family Houses for Sale Spikes to Highest since 2007, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021 But Are Still Way too High by Wolf Richter • Dec 23, 2024 • 149 Comments Lennar shocked the market by saying it’ll address this situation with further price cuts; its average price to drop by 16% from the peak in 2022.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 120 Comments Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.
After Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 59 Comments QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.
What Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done” by Wolf Richter • Dec 20, 2024 • 42 Comments Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.
Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 126 Comments Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.
Home Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages? by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 61 Comments Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.
Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.25%-4.50%, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, Sees Higher Inflation, Higher “Longer-Run” Rates. QT Continues by Wolf Richter • Dec 18, 2024 • 247 Comments Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.
The Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half by Wolf Richter • Dec 17, 2024 • 111 Comments It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.
Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 83 Comments Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.
