ADP Employment Report: -32,000 Jobs in September after -43,000 Annual Adjustment to Benchmark ADP data to BLS Data by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2025 • 12 Comments Pre-benchmarking jobs: +11,000. Private-sector measures not immune to data mess. Trend shows “employers have been cautious with hiring.”
“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 93 Comments At these valuations, “exit hurdles become exceptionally large.”
The Labor Market in New Era of Low Churn, Uneasy Calm, Government Job Losses, and Crackdown on Illegal Immigration by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 20 Comments Government job openings plunged 23% year-over-year. Federal government hires plunged 33% year-over-year.
The “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 112 Comments This is going to take a long time to get worked out.
Pending Home Sales Rise from Near-Record Lows, Zigzag along those Lows, -43% from 2020, -30% from 2019: Charts Speak by Wolf Richter • Sep 29, 2025 • 47 Comments A bigger rise in March got more than wiped out by a drop in April. That’s how it goes with zigzagging month-to-month data.
Corporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions by Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2025 • 93 Comments But profits are still huge after the pandemic free-money spike, except in auto manufacturing where losses pile up. Financial industry profits hit new record.
Inflation Is in Services despite Powell’s Denials: PCE Price Index for Core Services Accelerated Further. Durable Goods Prices Fell for 2nd Month by Wolf Richter • Sep 26, 2025 • 121 Comments The 12-month overall PCE & core PCE price indices, which the Fed uses for its target, are worse than a year ago.
Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed Further, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 65 Comments Price declines and increases vary dramatically in different markets.
What Slowdown? Q2 GDP Growth Revised Up to Hot Zone of 3.8%, Stronger Consumer Spending & Private Fixed Investment by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 57 Comments Government consumption and inventories were a bigger drag though. All adjusted for inflation.
Inventory of New Completed Single-Family Homes Jumps to Highest since 2009, but Sales of New Homes See Outlier Spike in the South, Prices Skid: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Sep 24, 2025 • 36 Comments Homebuilders rant about the tough market.
