Wolf Richter

After Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero

by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 3 Comments

QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.

What Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done”

by Wolf Richter • Dec 20, 2024 • 32 Comments

Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.

Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million

by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 83 Comments

Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.

Home Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages?

by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024 • 51 Comments

Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.25%-4.50%, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, Sees Higher Inflation, Higher “Longer-Run” Rates. QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Dec 18, 2024 • 244 Comments

Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.

The Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half

by Wolf Richter • Dec 17, 2024 • 109 Comments

It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.

Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending

by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 83 Comments

Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Nov. 2024: Condo Prices Drop to New 3-Year Low, Single-Family Prices Stable at -17% from Peak in March 2022

by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 38 Comments

By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further on Surging Longer-Term Yields: 10-Year Yield Now Higher than All Shorter Yields. Mortgage Rates Resurge

by Wolf Richter • Dec 14, 2024 • 114 Comments

Fed cut by 75 basis points since September while 10-year Treasury yield rose by 75 basis points to 4.40%, as Bond Market frets about Inflation & Supply.

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop

by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 48 Comments

Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.

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