In between: Vancouver, Victoria, Hamilton-Burlington, Calgary, Ottawa, Halifax, Edmonton, Winnipeg.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Prices of all types of homes in Canada fell by another 0.3% in December from November, seasonally adjusted, and by 4.0% year-over-year, to the lowest level since April 2021, according to the Canada MLS Home Price Index Composite released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today.

Since the peak in February 2022, the overall index has dropped by 19%. But price movements in the major markets have diverged: At one end of the spectrum, in the vast Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, prices have plunged. At the other end, there are a gaggle of markets where prices rose to all-time highs, such as in the metropolitan areas of Montreal, Quebec City, or Winnipeg. Then there are the markets in between where prices have dropped but not yet in the double-digits, such as Greater Vancouver and Calgary.

And in markets where prices declined over the past two years, condos got hit harder than single-family properties.

Home sales in Canada declined by 4.5% year-over-year in December. Inventory listed for sale at the end of December, at 133,495 homes, was up by 7.4% from a year ago. Supply was at 4.5 months. So now, all hopes rest once again on the spring selling season.

But markets diverged. The big story is the housing bust playing out in Canada’s biggest housing market, the vast Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), for year 2025, sales fell by 11.2% from the already low levels in the prior year, to 62,433, while listings rose by 10.1% to 186,753 homes, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TREB).

These sales were the lowest since the year 2000, and down by nearly 50% from the peak year 2021.

Prices in the major Canadian markets.

Below are the prices and charts in Canadian dollars for single-family homes, and in some markets for condos, seasonally adjusted. Data via CREA.

Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index:

• Month-to-month: -0.6%
• Year-over-year: -6.4%
• From peak in February 2022: -23.3%
• $1,174,800; lowest since March 2021

Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.6%
•  Year-over-year: -8.2%.
• From peak in April 2022: -21.4%
• $563,100, lowest since February 2020. Prices have worked off the entire pandemic-era price spike.

Despite the massive problems that the Toronto condo market currently is stewing in, prices haven’t dropped quite as much from the peak as prices of single-family homes (-23.3%). But they’re currently dropping at a faster rate and are catching up.

Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (part of the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):

• Month-to-month: -0.2%
• Year-over-year: -6.6%
• From peak in February 2022: -25.0%
• $845,500, lowest since February 2021.

Hamilton-Burlington metro condo benchmark price: 

• Month-to-month: -1.3%
• Year-over-year: -9.6%
• From peak in April 2022: -25.4%
• $462,400, lowest since March 2021.

Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.2%
• Year-over-year: -5.0%.
• From peak in March 2022: -6.4%
• $1,928,000, back to December 2021.

Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: unchanged
• Year-over-year: -5.4%
• From high in October 2023: -6.6%.
• $725,500, where they’d first been in January 2022.

Victoria, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.1%
• Year-over-year: -2.2%
• From peak in March 2022: -9.3%
• $1,152,400, where they’d first been in November 2021

Ottawa, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.3%
• Year-over-year: +0.9%.
• From peak in March 2022: -6.4%
• $718,800 where it had first been in December 2021

Ottawa, condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -1.0%
• Year-over-year: -2.2%
• From peak in March 2022: -11.7%
• $395,900, lowest since March 2021

Montreal, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +1.0%,
• Year-over-year: +6.5%
• $693,900, a new high.

Calgary, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.1%
• Year-over-year: -2.3%

• From peak in January 2025: -2.3%

•  $678,700, lowest since May 2024

Calgary, condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.5%
• Year-over-year: -6.6%
• From peak in September 2024: -8.1%
• $318,200, lowest since November 2023.

Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -1.5%
• Year-over-year: +3.4%
• $579,700

Halifax-Dartmouth, condo benchmark price. In this small-ish condo market, the price index, with relatively few transactions, can be all over the place.

• Month-to-month: -3.8%
• Year-over-year: -8.6%
• From peak in April 2024: -11.1%
• $416,000, back to February 2022.

Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +4.2%
• Year-over-year: +17.5%
• Six-year price explosion: +93%, which is nuts
• $507,300, new high

Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.3%
• Year-over-year: +4.7%
• $502,200, essentially unchanged since February 2025.

Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +1.3%
• Year-over-year: +6.1%
• to $415,000, new high

And in case you missed it: The phenomenon that wrecked the housing market is slowly unwinding: “Locked-in” Homeowners Nevertheless Pay Off Below-4% Mortgages: their Share Drops to Lowest since Q4 2020

 

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.