Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal, Hungary, Bulgaria.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Prices of existing homes of all types (“dwellings”) in the 18 largest countries in the European Union (EU) and in the European Economic Area (EEA) have not moved in lockstep:
In some countries they have exploded in recent years, such as in Hungary (+21% year-over-year, +296% since 2010) or in Portugal (+18% YoY, +150% since 2010); they have surged in many others; and they don’t look so rosy in markets such as in Finland (-3.1% YoY, -13% from 2010).
In Italy, despite the blistering surge, prices are still below 2010 during the prior housing bubble that then imploded.
Here is a wild ride across the housing markets of the biggest countries by GDP, based on data from Eurostat through Q3 on Friday. The data goes back to 2005 for some countries, and less far for other countries; but I put all of them on the same timeline going back to 2005 for easier comparison. The vertical axis represents the index value; the index was set with a value of 100 for 2010.
Prices declined from peak in prior years in 6 of the 18 countries (year of peak):
- Finland: -13.4% (Q2 2022), back to 2010 levels.
- Germany: -8.1% (Q2 2022)
- Sweden: -6.4% (Q2 2022)
- France: -4.3% (Q3 2022)
- Italy: -2.9% (Q2 2011)
- Austria: -2.3% (Q3 2022)
Biggest price gains since 2010:
- Hungary: 296%
- Czech Republic: 162%
- Portugal: 150%
- Bulgaria: 139%
- Austria: 126%
- Norway: 120%
- Poland: 108%
- Netherlands: 95%
- Sweden: 85%
- Germany: 85%
- Ireland: 79%
- Denmark: 74%.
Biggest year-over-year gains:
- Hungary: 21.1%
- Portugal: 17.7%
- Bulgaria: 15.4%
- Spain: 12.8%
- Czech Republic: 10.8%
- Netherlands: 7.7%
- Ireland: 7.5%
- Denmark: 6.8%
- Romania: 6.6%
Biggest quarter-over-quarter gains in Q3:
- Portugal: 4.1%
- Bulgaria: 3.8%
- Hungary: 3.1%
- Spain: 2.9%
- Ireland: 2.6%
- Czech Republic: 2.5%
- Denmark: 2.5%
- Belgium: 2.4%
- Romania: 2.3%
- Netherlands: 2.0%
The two countries with quarter-over-quarter declines in Q3:
- Finland: -2.2%
- Norway: -0.5%.
The home price indices for the 18 largest countries in the EU or EEA:
The little tables show either three or four columns, from left to right: % change since 2010; quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) % change; year-over-year (YoY) % change; and % decline from the peak, if applicable.
| Germany, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 85% | 1.0% | 3.3% | -8.1% |
| France, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 33% | 1.6% | 0.7% | -4.3% |
| Italy, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 0% | 0.7% | 3.9% | -2.9% |
| Spain, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 37% | 2.9% | 12.8% |
| Netherlands, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 95% | 2.0% | 7.7% |
| Poland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 108% | 0.9% | 4.0% | |
| Belgium, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 62% | 2.4% | 3.7% | |
| Sweden, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 85% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.4% |
| Ireland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 79% | 2.6% | 7.5% | |
| Norway, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 120% | -0.5% | 5.1% | |
| Austria, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 126% | 1.6% | 2.7% | -2.3% |
| Denmark, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 74% | 2.5% | 6.8% | |
| Romania, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 34% | 2.3% | 6.6% | |
| Czech Republic, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 162% | 2.5% | 10.8% | |
| Finland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 6% | -2.2% | -3.1% | -13.4% |
| Portugal, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 150% | 4.1% | 17.7% | |
| Hungary, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 296% | 3.1% | 21.1% |
| Bulgaria, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 139% | 3.8% | 15.4% |
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:
Finland is a shocking exception, as one of the 4 Euro nations to increase in price between 2009-2014, but the only one of any Euro nations to be back at 2010 prices, despite a steadily increasing population since 1965.
an AI engine stated: “Finland’s housing prices dropped back to 2010 levels due to a combination of soaring variable interest rates (rapidly increasing mortgage costs), a significant oversupply of new apartments from previous building booms, weak household purchasing power from slow wage growth, and general economic uncertainty, leading to decreased demand”
You need only two words to explain that: Nokia iPhone
The collapse of Nokia was around the 2008 times and it impacted Finland considerably.
Not sure of the steadily increasing pop. Total Pop 2024 5,549,886, Total Pop 2023 5,583,911, Total Pop 2022 5,556,106 (macrotrends.net). Not too friendly to immigrants anymore either
May have also something to do with the Russian war. My understanding is that some of the towns closer to the Russian border are suffering economically.
Half of Saint Petersburg used to go there shopping. Some bought summer houses there.
Finland decided to go austerity mode in pretty much all policy decisions since the current government came into power, right into a soaring interest rate environment, in a country where the vast majority of mortgages is adjustable rate. And are even now planning to cut their way to prosperity.
Yes, wage inflation was successfully tamped down (with the government cutting strike rights etc), but you know what? That means the purchasing power of households is also weaker than before, as the inflation burst’s elevated prices don’t go away – or if they do, very very slowly. How odd that the economy is now in a deep freeze and the home prices right there with it.
Additionally, when it comes to apartments, there are some specifically Finnish debt “innovations” from the last decade that allowed the prices in high demand areas to inflate beyond reason even if the overall housing indexes didn’t budge much. But as a result, now there are lots of apartment buildings built in 2021 or 2022 that are just about overloaded with debt, to the point no one dares buy apartments in them.
what is the actual price of these homes in usd?
It all depends of country and location. From my experience I can share ehat I see: Averages starting: NL house, some 600K (Amsterdam 1,2M) apartment 400K, Spain big cities: houses 800K, apartment 400K, smaller towns: apartment 150K. Bulgaria (Sofia), apartment 250k.. Small villages: dirt cheap…
Here is the reality in Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU.
In the capital Sofia, the average price per m2 is around 2500 euros or 2155 usd. The average gross salary is 1789 euros or 1529 usd. The prices of goods and services are almost the same as in Western European countries
Here is a comparison between Vienna, which was the number one city to live in the world for a decade, and the third largest city in Bulgaria – Varna.
Vienna registered 18,865,000 overnight stays, and Varna – 3,561,074, meaning Vienna welcomed 5.3 times more tourists in the same year; also, the desired average salary in Varna is 1,160 euros – compared to the usual 4,260 euros in Vienna. We also compare Bulgaria’s GDP – 103.4billion euros, and that of Austria – 485 billion euros (because the bulgarian statistic does not have detailed statistics by city). We note that Austria has a GDP 4.7 times larger than Bulgaria. Let us note, however, that we are comparing an imperial capital in Western Europe and a provincial town without highway access to the capital and neighboring cities. With a difference of about 5 times in GDP, number of tourists and level of salaries, prices per m2 in Favoriten (10th district) and Margareten (5th district) in Vienna are around 4827 euros and 4070 euros respectively, and in the Chaika district in Varna they are 3000 – 4000 euros per m2.
Or to buy 1 m2 in Vienna at 6500 euros per m2, 1.3 gross monthly salaries are needed. To buy 1 m2 in Varna, 1.1 gross salaries. Keep in mind that the capital Vienna is a former imperial city and currently leading the ranking for the best place to live, and Varna is a provincial city that does not even have a highway connecting it to the capital and even to neighboring cities.
The Bulgarian real estate market is in a bubble that is much bigger than that of Toronto when all indicators such as prices per m2, salaries, GDP and accessibility are taken into account.
* The average gross salary is 1,789 euros or 2,093 US dollars.
I’m from Spain.
We are kind in the same situation here.
Our euro and eeuu mates want to live in our cities as we made them very attractive.
we should let them our houses , of course.
Spain try to impose some kind of additional tax to foreigners, but europe went nuts about it.
So here we are, paying MORE in Barcelona and Madrid than other big metros but salaries are 1/2 of foreigner salaries.
maybe we all find another way…
There is a big difference between Spain and Bulgaria. In Spain, properties are bought by Americans, Germans, English and people from all over the world, even Bulgarians.
In Bulgaria, the net flow of foreign investment in real estate for the period January-September 2025 was negative at EUR 11.5 million, increasing nearly fivefold compared to the negative flow of EUR 2.5 million a year earlier.
Not only are foreigners not buying properties in Bulgaria, but those who have bought are selling and fleeing.
That’s basically the same phenomenon as when Americans during COVID took their NYC and Bay Area salaries to previously cheap areas of America and bid the prices up.
It’s a huge problem, but I don’t have a solution for it.
Bulgaria recently launched the digital nomad visa. A beautiful country coupled with a low COL, it could explode in popularity.
“A beautiful country coupled with a low COL,”
“beautiful”, yes, cheap properties, no.
For 200-250 thousand euros you can buy an apartment anywhere in Europe except for the central areas of the capitals of the countries.
The same goes for American and Canadian cities.
In Bulgaria it has become ridiculously and unrealistically expensive
I think German property is one of the most attractive investment opportunities at the moment. Prices are rebounding and are supported by increased immigration and high building costs. Most importantly, there are several listed residential REITs which are trading at extremely large discounts to NAV, some as large as 50 percent.
Maybe because NAV reflects highly inflated multifamily valuations based on prices from years ago that have now gone down substantially? This is what happened in the US multifamily space. Lots of multifamily landlords collapsed because they couldn’t make their debt payments and the properties were seized by lenders.
In terms of US REITs, many of them have plunged by 50% or more because of the issues in multifamily CRE.
Excellent article, the charts look just like they do here in the US.
Global asset bubble?
More like global labor devaluation. Think of the costs/median hourly salary worked for these properties.
Finland used to be neutral and had thriving cross border commerce with Russia. Recently, they joined NATO and closed the border. Their president Stubbs keeps pushing for war with Russia. Who would want to invest in Finnish real estate?
Who would want to live next to a demented, belligerent neighbor like Russia? FTFY. I mean, prices sure look like they started to decline after Russia invaded their sovereign neighbor, Ukraine.
Finland did, with very little problems, for 70 years as a neutral nation.
Then something changed…
“Then something changed?”
Yes. Russia invaded a neighboring country in 2022 and is still waging a brutal war against it to take what it hadn’t taken in 2014. Russia’s neighbors, including Finland, now know that they could be next. That’s what happened. Finns understand that perfectly.
Negative mortgage rates caused a bubble. Young couples have to sign
a $1 million mortgage, piling debt.
All very location dependent, of course, within each country. In Portugal, houses and apartments in Lisbon and Porto have become quite expensive, but in the “interior”, where I live, there are bargains to found.
My house, ~140sq/m, cost <€200k including aa substantial renovation. It is in a charming town, with a beautiful view, etc. The same type of home would cost ~€400k or more in either of the major cities.
Also worth considering are property taxes, which can vary wildly from country to country. I owned a condo on Long Island for many years, and I'm sure some readers are familiar with the high taxes on properties on LI. In Portugal, I pay )
<€400.
Europe is old. In the major cities contractors erased a few old buildings and erect clusters of 40/60 floors multi apt buildings, using the illegals. In smaller cities 8/15 floors multi. Prices will stay at high plateau, protected by the ECB, in order to prevent bubble collapse #2.
Inflation will reduce prices in real terms, but it will take a decade or two. Europe, unlike China, will constrict supply, to keep prices high.
Bulgarian RE prices bubble was fueled by accepting the Euro as national currency in 1/1/26. So basically all illegal money went into real estate by the end of the year. Now it will be over.