But Model Y was #1 US bestseller through Q3 before EV incentives ended. And Tesla’s hype machine works: TSLA trades at a P/E ratio of 300, other automakers at 10 to 20.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The total number of vehicles that Tesla delivered to customers around the globe in Q4 2025 plunged by 15.6% from a year ago, to 418,227 vehicles, the lowest Q4 since 2022 as the federal EV incentives in the US ended on September 30, as other EV brands around the globe ate Tesla’s lunch, and as the Cybertruck has failed (red in the chart).
Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y plunged by 13.8% from a year ago, to 406,585 vehicles, also the lowest Q4 since 2022 (blue).
Deliveries of what Tesla calls “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined, the green line at the bottom of the chart – collapsed by 50.8% year-over-year to just 11,642 vehicles in Q4, the lowest Q4 since Adam and Eve (or at least since 2014). Sales of the Model S have been dying for years, the Model X never took off, and the Cybertruck is now a failed model.
The Semi, Tesla’s most promised and delayed vehicle ever, is now ramping up mass production at its new Nevada factory. The few prior Semis were essentially handmade prototypes under a pilot program that companies like PepsiCo tested. So that model is still in the hype-and-hope department.
But the Model Y remains an immensely successful model in the US: In 2025 through Q3, it was the #1 bestseller by registrations in the US, with a share of 3.0% of all vehicles sold, ahead of the Toyota RAV4 (2.9%), and the Ford F-150 pickup (2.8%), according to Experian’s quarterly report on vehicle registrations. That performance was helped by frontrunning in Q3 ahead of the end of the federal EV incentives of $7,500.
Experian’s Q4 report on registrations, when it comes out in March, will show that in Q4, Model Y registrations plunged as the federal EV incentives had ended, and that it likely lost its #1 spot in the US to the RAV4 and the F-150, but that it remained one of the bestsellers in the US.
Cybertruck woes. Tesla said in 2023 that it expects to be able to ramp production of the Cybertruck to 250,000 units in 2025. But now in the reality of the whole year 2025, deliveries of “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined – have collapsed by 40% to 50,850 units for the full year.
Cybertruck is now a failed model. It was immensely expensive to develop, took years longer to get to production due to the technical challenges and innovations its design pushed, and now faces a cold reception from consumers and the media.
Here we’re looking at the “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined – under the magnifying glass
For the whole year, global deliveries of all models dropped 8.6% to 1.636 million vehicles; compared to the peak year of 2024, they dropped by 9.5%:
Why are we even looking at this? Tesla’s crazy share price. Tesla’s stock-market fan club has turned their eyes away from the mundane stuff an automaker makes, including its failed super-hyped models, and now it’s all about future robotaxis, where Tesla is about two years behind Waymo, humanoid robots for every household or whatever, AI, and other promises, and to heck with the prior failed promises, such as the Cybertruck.
Tesla’s shares, currently at around $445, are near their all-time high of mid-December and trade at a P/E ratio of 300, when automakers listed in the US usually trade in the 10-20 range, including Toyota (P/E ratio of 10), GM (P/E ratio of 16), and Ford (P/E ratio of 11). I know, I know, Tesla is not an automaker, it’s a hype machine and the TSLA fan club loves that and thrives on it.
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It will take more than this for the cult to lose faith, still hovering above $442 today. To the believers it will be another BTFD moment, rinse and repeat cause they are not a car company anymore and they are all buying into the hopes of going to Mars in couple of years, humanoid robot butler or AI tech overlord utopia or whatever…. In a alternate universe sane timeline and any other ordinary automaker, stock would’ve tanked long time ago but here we are….
Honestly good luck to anyone brave enough to short this stock, it’s been an interesting case study and one for the history book for sure.
Tesla could very well benefit from the next space race. China is ahead in so many areas and spending so much that doubtful the US will keep up but doesn’t mean we won’t burn tax payer money trying. Some of space race isn’t practical but much of it like reusable rockets for putting Starlink type satellites is essential. China is doing some amazing work in so many areas of space and very far ahead of US. Fascinating stuff if you like that kind of thing. The US has underinvested across the board from infrastructure to ship building to basic industrial capacity that there simply are not the skilled people to do the work even if the money was made available to spend.
“Tesla could very well benefit from the next space race.” and “like reusable rockets for putting Starlink type satellites is essential.”
You’re most likely talking about SpaceX, not Tesla. SpaceX is a separate company, owned by Musk and other big investors, such as Alphabet, VC firms, etc. It may attempt an IPO this year. SpaceX owns Starlink.
Tesla made money by selling EPA smog credits to manufacturers that couldn’t meet the fuel economy requirements. This helped Tesla build factories and purchase existing ones. With that money dried up because EPA will no longer enforce fuel mandates, what will Tesla do to counterweight that? The margins they make on a vehicle must be high. Revisions on existing vehicles are coming because of age. Elon is very good at keeping trust. I love Tesla idea, just think it’s a bit obvious.
I shorted it last year in the spring with some success but the options numbers really don’t work well. You can’t make much. A reasonable price for Tesla (and it is a car company and battery company) is about $13 a share. It’s obscenely overvalued, but it keeps bouncing back up because it’s a cult.
TSLA is down 7.81% this holiday week! Willshire 5000 lost 666.59 billion this week or .96%.. willshire is broadcasting “doom” for the market. Gold is down 4.43%
For clarification CNBC had the usd:jpy closing out 25 at 156.66 they ran the same number when the currency markets open yesterday for a hour at 156.66 broadcasting mistake. There is a liquidity problem, JP Morgan is offering 4% for 3 months that is way above a 3 mo t bill, plus they can go to the Fed discount window and pay 3.64. JPM never overpays to their customers! Credit unions yes. JPM is profit making machine they are paying for liquidity because they have a need for liquidity
“There is a liquidity problem, JP Morgan is offering 4% for 3 months …”
LOL. I just checked with Schwab. JPM is not offering ANY CDs at Schwab, doesn’t need the cash, is away in cash, zero liquidity problems. No bank is offering 4% on ANY CDs of ANY maturity at Schwab. The highest offers are 3.7%, except for a 5-year at 3.8%. Most offers are around 3.4% to 3.5%.
oh Wolf!
Full-Self Driving and robotaxis are just 10 years away! Btw now Tesla is a humanoid maker…so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
And/or P/E is a forward-looking for Tesla ( and Palatir and RGTI..)
One of these well-worn justifications never make it into your article – “Hmmm curious..” (as the man said)
/s if it wasn’t clear
Tesla is an anomaly. Many of tired to replicate its success, falling short of expectations. Tesla spent 12 years not being a profitable company. Today, they are, however, massively overvalued. There just isn’t an automaker that can challenge Tesla today. That 12 years, their income was smog credits. It helped build their infrastructure and setup means to create their 3 and y respectively. It’ll take a lot to dethrone them as the big EV maker, but little to drop that stock price.
BYD has already overthrown Tesla as the global top EV automaker.
BYD is kept out of the USA, but in many places elsewhere in the world they are everywhere. You see them all over the place here in Thailand, nice cars too.
Not surprising that a Chinese EV manufacturer is outperforming globally. Prices in the US are known to be inflated for high margins. They blame wages, but rather it is margins that should be worrisome.
If you want to see inflated prices, go try to buy something in Europe.
Tesla sells cars designed 10 years ago. BYD continues to innovate. The US can never afford let BYD into the US or it will destroy the automotive industry.
Isn’t this the exact medicine that Capitalism prescribes?
Maybe then we can start up some good scrappy competitors to Chinese cars, once the dead wood is cleared.
Fools by that stock at these levels. I came close to shorting it at $280, but got distracted. Too bad because there would have been pretty good profit.
US car companies still exports cars, and even some non US companies like BMV export from the US, but I wonder how long that will hold up. Chinese EVs are cheaper and better quality. At least Chevy is bringing the Bolt back in 2027 and at likely a decent price so perhaps US car companies are finally adapting. Maybe they actually make some intelligent decisions and invest in their future.
Chevy is bringing the bolt back,hhhmmmmmm.
At same time Ford is dropping the lightning.
Seems the ev market more for cars and perhaps not trucks.
Pricing is the reason. The Lightning is $70k while the Chevy Bolt is $30k.
GM is not bringing the Bolt back. It will introduce a lower-cost EV based on its new Ultium platform and call it “Bolt.” It will be an entirely different vehicle than the old Bolt, which was based on a GM-Korea ICE vehicle. GM’s electric trucks are doing pretty good.
Ford is refocusing on lower-cost EVs. It screwed up by trying to be a luxury brand when it’s not. Ford is also redoing the tech of its electric pickup to boost its range and bring costs down, and will come out with a new version.
Once people find out how good the latest self driving technology works, the cybertruck will become a winner in sales growth. My motivation to buy one was driven by the self driving, not by the fact it was an EV. With Tesla self driving features, I see myself able to ‘drive’ well beyond the ages where my parents had to stop driving.
Hahahaha
Tim
But there are not of enough of you, Tim, which is why the Cybertruck is a failed model. If there were 300,000 more Tims each year, that would be a huge help.
Easy on the Kool-Aid there…I know it’s the holidays and all but no need to overbinge on the Musk/Woodshed branded kind .lol
Tim,tis why me uncle bought one,all there mind body excepting even with mirrors hard for him to see at times passing lanes ect. due to stiff neck from injuries,hence ,he is happy and feels safer.
Too much technical info to write here but as a Software Engineer I’d be hesitant to trust Tesla’s self driving technology with my life. Their approach to a number of issues cuts corners and is problematic imo.
Right?
For a “tech” company I would have thought they’d be all in on the radar/ lidar/ whatever NextGen sensors are available?
Instead my understanding is that they’re extremely camera heavy so therefore have little advantage over a 20 y/o eyesight and many disadvantages to the Waymo platform approach.
The gotcha with Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” or “Autopilot” systems is that they’re officially classified as “SAE J3016 Level 2” systems that require constant human supervision. The State of California has just ordered Tesla to stop advertising their cars as “self-driving” because it’s considered deceptive due to the Level 2 certification.
While most of the focus on the abilities of production Tesla cars to self-drive has been on the computers, in order to achieve SAE Level 4 the car also needs redundant control/actuation systems for steering and brakes. As far as I have been able to discover, none of Tesla’s current production cars have this redundancy, and therefore cannot be certified for Level 4 operation or operate as “Robotaxi’s” without significant/expensive modifications.
It’s possible that Tesla could move their cars up to SAE Level 3, but that still requires a human to be available to take over control of the vehicle as needed and that won’t be good enough for Robotaxi.
Great article. Tesla’s other major money maker are megapack batteries for giant battery farms called BESS which allows companies to buy electricity made cheaply at night and sell it for vast profits during the day. Each BESS makes about $1B over it’s 20 year lifetime. Tesla’s market share is 28% in the US and as the batteries are actually made in the US and many countries/jurisdictions have either banned or are looking at banning Chinese batteries and inverters because of cyber security concerns, Tesla is well situated as basically being the sole supplier for the US and the EU. It would make this division more lucrative than the car business which is still making good coin. Their biggest competitor for electric vehicles is BYD in China that’s actually making affordable vehicles using safer LFP batteries. Keeping BYD out of the US is essential for Tesla to survive
But revenue from Tesla’s “energy generation,” at $3.4 billion in Q3, was only 16% of total revenues.
Do you think a battery manufacturer should be priced at 300x p/e? I don’t!
Awwww, worlds tiniest 🎻
TBH. Tesla should be priced at 44 not 440, and it should joint Wolf’s Imploded stocks list. 😂
how obvious dies it need to be ? TEsla is 100 times overval,ued at l;east
I perceive Tesla and Elon Musk through the lens of the so-called PayPal Mafia. Consumers who use PayPal confound me no end, the company takes a cut of anything you deposit and a cut of anything you spend. If that’s not “dulling the edge of husbandry” I don’t know what is. I see the valuation of Tesla in the same fog, there must be some form of optics in play here to which I am blind.
Credit card issuers and debit card issuers also take a cut of everything you spend with those cards. You just don’t see it. The merchant sees it and increases prices that you pay to cover those fees.
But the card companies lost a big lawsuit, and now more and more merchants (including the California DMV, LOL) are offering a lower price if you pay cash or add a fee if you pay by credit card.
Do you only ever pay cash & ACH transfers?
I pay with cash and Zelle a lot, my favorites. They’re free for both ends. ACH has fees for one end, like credit cards, but a lot lower.
FWIW a friend bought a Cybertruck … he ordered online a year ago when he had too many Ryes and completely forgot about it … 6 months later they called him up … they gave him the option of not taking delivery but he did.
It’s purple and it’s an ugly monster. I can’t see how anyone would want to drive around in that ugly box.
I think they’re handsome in a rugged sort of way. But my wife absolutely hates them. So no Cybertruck in our house 🤣
I don’t think that there is another vehicle out there that stirs up such negative reactions to how they look. Normally, when people don’t like the looks of a vehicle, they just ignore it. But you cannot ignore a Cybertruck. You just can’t. Not even my wife can ignore them.
“handsome in a rugged sort of way” … o.O
LOL
In a similar vain I thought the H2 was ruggedly handsome/cool … not so much “Cyber ARK” for some reason.
Coming back to my car I saw one that parked in front of me and that pissed me off. It’s grotesque.
I drive a model Y with FSD
If you haven’t driven a Tesla with FSD you shouldn’t be commenting.
If you have, you’d understand Tesla’s valuation.
I have never driven a Tesla, but I DO read (and comment on?) WolfStreet!
I have major concerns about FSD in my neighborhood (rural Colorado). Generally due to weather conditions and overall road conditions.
I’m sure it would be OK for a lot of the roads and conditions here, BUT
My six-month-old granddaughter will never “drive” a car. She’ll look at a steering wheel the same way we look at 8‑tracks — a weird relic of the past.
Speaking of relics, I think some of you here were on AI in another thread — you’re not rejecting the future because it’s bad, you’re rejecting it because of who’s delivering it.
Tesla’s high P/E?
Is NOT all about EVs and IS also about Full Self-Driving and Robotaxis. I live in Las Vegas — I ride the Boring Company Loop in self-driving Teslas – WOW! and take my Model X on road trips – AMAZING!. FSD is life-changing, safe, and gives a first-hand vision of the future.
People criticizing Tesla often haven’t even driven one. Perspective – I own three EVs — Mercedes EQE AMG, Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model X — and for pure competence, tech, and travel ease, Tesla is ahead.
BYD, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche, and others are closing dealerships, cutting sales, and restructuring. This isn’t just a Tesla story — the whole industry is evolving, and Elon Musk started it.
Tesla’s P/E is high because the market is pricing in the future, not just today, not just the car in your garage — so get out of your recliner and wake up.
FSD, Robotaxis, energy, AI — the future is here, and Elon’s building it.
GO TESLA! GO SPACEX! GO BORING CO.! GO NEURALINK! GO STARLINK! GO ELON!
There are lots of makers with very equivalent features. A lot.
If you have not tried them all, you might misunderstand Tesla’s valuation…
Thanks to our gracious host, and best to all in the new year.
Opinions that Musk’s best days are in the rear view mirror are just as valid as yours. Vehicle performance can’t always compensate for a deeply tarnished brand.
Alex Djordjevic
‘you’d understand Tesla’s valuation.’
🤣❤️🎇🍾
So you like your car (great!), and that justifies a P/E ratio of 300 despite declining vehicle sales, when Toyota’s P/E ratio is at 10? This attitude is why meme coin and crypto prices explode before they plunge.
I want a self-driving car that will drive me from California to Florida. I want to have the kind of confidence in it so that I can take naps while it drives. I want to tell it to go the speed limit the whole way. I want it to tell me what restaurants are available a half hour ahead of time and pull into a parking place at the restaurant of my choice. When it is night time, I want it to find me a good cheap clean motel, make a reservation, and deal with the motel worker when we get there. I want it to stop for gas or electricity and fill it up by itself, or call an attendant to do it. If I tell it to shut up, I don’t want to hear any bells or rings or mechanical voices. If it does all this, I might buy one.
I don’t own Tesla Shares. I last considered buying Tesla when it was at 160. Certainly wish that I had pulled the trigger then.
The play on Tesla is no longer EV’s. Until the next real increment of battery performance comes out, EV’s are dead in growth terms.
Tesla seems to have thrown in the towel on 4680 and has probably decided that it cannot compete with the Asians and China in particular in Batteries. Samsung appears to have made some progress in solid state batteries, but unfortunately their chemistry uses some amount of Silver. But if the battery delivers it’s specs at scaled production it may still usher in that next increment of performance getting average range up near 500 miles without as much penalty for cold and the ability to support fast charging.
Elon has probably lost most interest in EV’s nd has shifted his focus to AI and Robots. Nobody knows if that is a good bet. The demos are impressive, but the use cases are still a bit ill defined or undemonstrated in real life.
Tesla does seem to have made good progress in Full Self Driving. Many of us dismiss this – I personally like to drive so it’s not that appealing to me. I think the important implication is not i FSD itself but in the general progress that work has contributed to Teslas AI efforts. Tesla FSD depends on ordinary optical vision – not lidar or radar or most other specialized sensor arrays. The master of natural vision and it’s translation into spacial awareness will be fundamental in Teslas Robot efforts.
As to SpaceX – Elon has made some comments about providing a path to SpaceX shares for Tesla shareholders. Beyond those internet rumors who knows what the truth is.
SpaceX is huge, in my view. Starlink will generate gobs of cashflow to support other space initiatives – Data Centers in space, Power Generation in Space. Who knows.
If America had 10 more Elon Musks, what might that mean. Lots of people hate Elon. You probably would never want to work for him, but he is a national Treasure. Given what modern America has become, I’m sure we will find some what to destroy him.
My GUESS is that most of the same people who would buy a Tesla EV do NOT share Elon Musk’s political opinions. And that those who DO share Elon Musk’s political opinions aren’t in the market for any brand EV.
During FIFA world cup, soccer fans will use robotaxi, bc waymo is so ugly.
You clearly don’t own a Tesla. Car 2.0.
Not enough people are buying its cars and so sales have dropped for the second year in a row. Why is that so hard to grasp?
Personally, I don’t have sympathy for a company that can’t produce a true low-cost EV like GM & others are doing. Tesla should have rolled out a Model 2 this past year which still would have been late. Outside of the failed CyberTruck, Tesla is pretty much shipping the same kinds of EVs as they’ve been doing for 10 years now. They’re not innovating nearly fast enough & are focused on giving the changing EV consumers what they want. And Tesla is vertically integrated more so than any US EV maker.
Perhaps a bad analogy but I think EV market is likely early Internet. It was slow then fiber backbone was added like crazy, but it wasn’t until they got the “last mile” to the home where it wasn’t slow, making the phone line busy or only slightly better DSL. If the charging infrastructure was highly available they would be used much more but for now I see it being good for 95% or more of my driving and charge at home but no point in giving up a 2017 RAV4 ICE with 60K miles to save maybe $1,000 a year but then worry about my longer trips to Portland, Seattle or wherever.
But no doubt all of this will advance and by 2030, if I’m not in Uruguay, then could see it. Hard to predict though as we aren’t exactly a society built around funding public infrastructure. I remember being a kid when BART launched and wish high speed public transportation was a thing but those projects just aren’t funded.
I can’t believe nobody is talking about the cyber cafe, Tesla’s largest revenue growth driver. 2025 revenues of around $297,000 (my
rough guess based on assumptions of 10,000 meals at $29.70 average ticket). This represents infinite growth over 2024 cheeseburger revenue of $0. And these aren’t just any cheeseburgers, they are building all kinds of high tech algorithms into the cooking and ordering models which will put McDonald’s and all of the other fast food burger chains out of business within 5 years. This is easily a $2-4T business by 2030.