But Model Y was #1 US bestseller through Q3 before EV incentives ended. And Tesla’s hype machine works: TSLA trades at a P/E ratio of 300, other automakers at 10 to 20.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The total number of vehicles that Tesla delivered to customers around the globe in Q4 2025 plunged by 15.6% from a year ago, to 418,227 vehicles, the lowest Q4 since 2022 as the federal EV incentives in the US ended on September 30, as other EV brands around the globe ate Tesla’s lunch, and as the Cybertruck has failed (red in the chart).
Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y plunged by 13.8% from a year ago, to 406,585 vehicles, also the lowest Q4 since 2022 (blue).
Deliveries of what Tesla calls “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined, the green line at the bottom of the chart – collapsed by 50.8% year-over-year to just 11,642 vehicles in Q4, the lowest Q4 since Adam and Eve (or at least since 2014). Sales of the Model S have been dying for years, the Model X never took off, and the Cybertruck is now a failed model.
The Semi, Tesla’s most promised and delayed vehicle ever, is now ramping up mass production at its new Nevada factory. The few prior Semis were essentially handmade prototypes under a pilot program that companies like PepsiCo tested. So that model is still in the hype-and-hope department.
But the Model Y remains an immensely successful model in the US: In 2025 through Q3, it was the #1 bestseller by registrations in the US, with a share of 3.0% of all vehicles sold, ahead of the Toyota RAV4 (2.9%), and the Ford F-150 pickup (2.8%), according to Experian’s quarterly report on vehicle registrations. That performance was helped by frontrunning in Q3 ahead of the end of the federal EV incentives of $7,500.
Experian’s Q4 report on registrations, when it comes out in March, will show that in Q4, Model Y registrations plunged as the federal EV incentives had ended, and that it likely lost its #1 spot in the US to the RAV4 and the F-150, but that it remained one of the bestsellers in the US.
Cybertruck woes. Tesla said in 2023 that it expects to be able to ramp production of the Cybertruck to 250,000 units in 2025. But now in the reality of the whole year 2025, deliveries of “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined – have collapsed by 40% to 50,850 units for the full year.
Cybertruck is now a failed model. It was immensely expensive to develop, took years longer to get to production due to the technical challenges and innovations its design pushed, and now faces a cold reception from consumers and the media.
Here we’re looking at the “other” models – Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X all combined – under the magnifying glass
For the whole year, global deliveries of all models dropped 8.6% to 1.636 million vehicles; compared to the peak year of 2024, they dropped by 9.5%:
Why are we even looking at this? Tesla’s crazy share price. Tesla’s stock-market fan club has turned their eyes away from the mundane stuff an automaker makes, including its failed super-hyped models, and now it’s all about future robotaxis, where Tesla is about two years behind Waymo, humanoid robots for every household or whatever, AI, and other promises, and to heck with the prior failed promises, such as the Cybertruck.
Tesla’s shares, currently at around $445, are near their all-time high of mid-December and trade at a P/E ratio of 300, when automakers listed in the US usually trade in the 10-20 range, including Toyota (P/E ratio of 10), GM (P/E ratio of 16), and Ford (P/E ratio of 11). I know, I know, Tesla is not an automaker, it’s a hype machine and the TSLA fan club loves that and thrives on it.
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It will take more than this for the cult to lose faith, still hovering above $442 today. To the believers it will be another BTFD moment, rinse and repeat cause they are not a car company anymore and they are all buying into the hopes of going to Mars in couple of years, humanoid robot butler or AI tech overlord utopia or whatever…. In a alternate universe sane timeline and any other ordinary automaker, stock would’ve tanked long time ago but here we are….
Honestly good luck to anyone brave enough to short this stock, it’s been an interesting case study and one for the history book for sure.
Tesla could very well benefit from the next space race. China is ahead in so many areas and spending so much that doubtful the US will keep up but doesn’t mean we won’t burn tax payer money trying. Some of space race isn’t practical but much of it like reusable rockets for putting Starlink type satellites is essential. China is doing some amazing work in so many areas of space and very far ahead of US. Fascinating stuff if you like that kind of thing. The US has underinvested across the board from infrastructure to ship building to basic industrial capacity that there simply are not the skilled people to do the work even if the money was made available to spend.
“Tesla could very well benefit from the next space race.” and “like reusable rockets for putting Starlink type satellites is essential.”
You’re most likely talking about SpaceX, not Tesla. SpaceX is a separate company, owned by Musk and other big investors, such as Alphabet, VC firms, etc. It may attempt an IPO this year. SpaceX owns Starlink.
oh Wolf!
Full-Self Driving and robotaxis are just 10 years away! Btw now Tesla is a humanoid maker…so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
And/or P/E is a forward-looking for Tesla ( and Palatir and RGTI..)
One of these well-worn justifications never make it into your article – “Hmmm curious..” (as the man said)
/s if it wasn’t clear
Tesla is an anomaly. Many of tired to replicate its success, falling short of expectations. Tesla spent 12 years not being a profitable company. Today, they are, however, massively overvalued. There just isn’t an automaker that can challenge Tesla today. That 12 years, their income was smog credits. It helped build their infrastructure and setup means to create their 3 and y respectively. It’ll take a lot to dethrone them as the big EV maker, but little to drop that stock price.
BYD has already overthrown Tesla as the global top EV automaker.
BYD is kept out of the USA, but in many places elsewhere in the world they are everywhere. You see them all over the place here in Thailand, nice cars too.
US car companies still exports cars, and even some non US companies like BMV export from the US, but I wonder how long that will hold up. Chinese EVs are cheaper and better quality. At least Chevy is bringing the Bolt back in 2027 and at likely a decent price so perhaps US car companies are finally adapting. Maybe they actually make some intelligent decisions and invest in their future.
Chevy is bringing the bolt back,hhhmmmmmm.
At same time Ford is dropping the lightning.
Seems the ev market more for cars and perhaps not trucks.
Once people find out how good the latest self driving technology works, the cybertruck will become a winner in sales growth. My motivation to buy one was driven by the self driving, not by the fact it was an EV. With Tesla self driving features, I see myself able to ‘drive’ well beyond the ages where my parents had to stop driving.
Hahahaha
Tim
But there are not of enough of you, Tim, which is why the Cybertruck is a failed model. If there were 300,000 more Tims each year, that would be a huge help.
Easy on the Kool-Aid there…I know it’s the holidays and all but no need to overbinge on the Musk/Woodshed branded kind .lol
Tim,tis why me uncle bought one,all there mind body excepting even with mirrors hard for him to see at times passing lanes ect. due to stiff neck from injuries,hence ,he is happy and feels safer.
Too much technical info to write here but as a Software Engineer I’d be hesitant to trust Tesla’s self driving technology with my life. Their approach to a number of issues cuts corners and is problematic imo.
Great article. Tesla’s other major money maker are megapack batteries for giant battery farms called BESS which allows companies to buy electricity made cheaply at night and sell it for vast profits during the day. Each BESS makes about $1B over it’s 20 year lifetime. Tesla’s market share is 28% in the US and as the batteries are actually made in the US and many countries/jurisdictions have either banned or are looking at banning Chinese batteries and inverters because of cyber security concerns, Tesla is well situated as basically being the sole supplier for the US and the EU. It would make this division more lucrative than the car business which is still making good coin. Their biggest competitor for electric vehicles is BYD in China that’s actually making affordable vehicles using safer LFP batteries. Keeping BYD out of the US is essential for Tesla to survive
But revenues from Tesla’s “energy generation” was only $3.4 billion in Q3, or only 16% of total revenues.
Awwww, worlds tiniest 🎻
TBH. Tesla should be priced at 44 not 440, and it should joint Wolf’s Imploded stocks list. 😂
how obvious dies it need to be ? TEsla is 100 times overval,ued at l;east
FWIW a friend bought a Cybertruck … he ordered online a year ago when he had too many Ryes and completely forgot about it … 6 months later they called him up … they gave him the option of not taking delivery but he did.
It’s purple and it’s an ugly monster. I can’t see how anyone would want to drive around in that ugly box.
I drive a model Y with FSD
If you haven’t driven a Tesla with FSD you shouldn’t be commenting.
If you have, you’d understand Tesla’s valuation.