Rents spiked in Fan Francisco, Chicago, NY City, Rochester, Kansas City… rose more slowly in others… fell in Austin, Denver, San Antonio, Phoenix…

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Asking rents – the rents that landlords show in ads for their vacant rental properties – are not moving in lockstep across markets. In some markets, overall asking rents for mid-tier multifamily rental apartments, condos for rent, and single-family homes for rent, all combined, are spiking, such as in San Francisco, Chicago, Rochester, New York City, or Kansas City. In some other markets, these asking rents are falling, such as in Austin, Denver, and San Antonio. But overall, markets where rents are rising are overpowering markets where rents a declining.

There is also a big difference between multifamily apartments, where rents are under pressure in many markets due to large amounts of new supply of rental units and condos for rent; and single-family rental homes, where rents have continued to rise in most markets.

Across the US, asking rents in November rose year-over-year per the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for mid-tier:

• Single-family rental homes: +3.1% (red in the chart)
• Multifamily: +1.7% (yellow).
• Overall: +2.3% (blue)

Asking rents are not actual rents that current tenants pay.

Asking rents are advertised rents on units that landlords have not been able to rent out yet and that are still vacant and advertised as for rent.

But the CPI for “Rent of Primary Residence,” released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the CPI data, tracks actual rents that current tenants are paying. This is a big difference.

The chart below shows year-over-year percentage changes of asking rents per ZORI (red) and the CPI for Rent of Primary Residence (blue).

From late 2020 to early 2023, asking rents exploded as landlords went hog-wild, but not that many tenants signed new leases at those rents; and annual rent increases on renewals were much smaller. So from late 2020 to early 2023, asking-rent increases overshot actual rent increases for existing tenants by a wide margin, topping out at +16% year-over-year in early 2023 for the ZORI, while actual rents topped out at +8.8% at about the same time. The increases of both measures have been cooling since then.

Rents of SFRs outpace multifamily rents.

There are about 50 million rental units of all types in the US. About 15 million of them, or about 30%, are single-family rental homes (SFRs). Of those 15 million SFRs, 11 million are owned by mom-and-pop landlords and 4 million by larger landlords, including a handful of giant landlords.

Increases in asking rents for SFRs continued to be much hotter than for multifamily units. And so the difference in asking rents between SFRs and multifamily units has surged over the years.

Asking rents for mid-tier SFRs, at $2,203 in November, were 25.4% higher than asking rents for mid-tier multifamily units at $1,757. Back in 2015 and 2016, single-family rents were 7-8% higher than multifamily rents.

Asking rents for 33 bigger cities.

The charts below of a sample of 33 bigger cities in the US show asking rents for mid-tier SFRs and multifamily rentals combined, per the seasonally adjusted ZORI. In order of year-over-year percentage change.

San Francisco, CA: +1.2% in November from October, +10.1% year-over-year, making it the city with the worst year-over-year increase in asking rents among the bigger cities.

Note that rents had plunged in San Francisco, and only toward the end of 2024 did they surpass the 2015 high:

Chicago, IL: +0.6% in November from October, +6.7% year-over-year:

Rochester, NY: +0.7% in November from October, +6.5% year-over-year:

New York City, NY: 0.8% in November from October, +5.7% year-over-year:

Kansas City, MO: +0.5% in November from October, +4.8% year-over-year:

Indianapolis, IN: +0.2% in November from October, +4.4% year-over-year:

Baltimore, MD: +0.2% in November from October, +4.1% year-over-year:

Detroit, MI: +0.2% in November from October, +4.0% year-over-year:

Seattle, WA: +0.3% in November from October, +3.9% year-over-year:

Pittsburgh, PA: +0.2% in November from October, +3.7% year-over-year:

San Jose, CA: +0.4% in November from October, +3.7% year-over-year:

Atlanta, GA: +0.7% in November from October, +3.5% year-over-year. Note the resurge, after the decline:

Oklahoma City, OK: +0.2% in November from October, +3.4% year-over-year:

Omaha, NE: +0.1% in November from October, +3.4% year-over-year:

Philadelphia, PA: +0.2% in November from October, +3.3% year-over-year:

Boston, MA: +0.2% in November from October, +3.2% year-over-year:

Columbus, OH: +0% in November from October, +3.1% year-over-year:

Los Angeles, CA: +0.2% in November from October, +2.3% year-over-year:

Portland, OR: +0.2% in November from October, +2.3% year-over-year:

Forth Worth, TX: +0.3% in November from October, +2.0% year-over-year:

San Diego, CA: +0.3% in November from October, +1.9% year-over-year:

Washington, DC: -0.2% in November from October, +1.5% year-over-year:

Jacksonville, FL: +0.3% in November from October, +1.3% year-over-year:

Charlotte, NC: +0.1% in November from October, +1.0% year-over-year:

In Las Vegas, NV: +0.3% in November from October, +1.0% year-over-year:

Miami, FL: +0% in November from October, +1.0% year-over-year:

In Houston, TX: 0% in November from October, +0.5% year-over-year:

Nashville, TN: +0.2% in November from October, +0.5% year-over-year:

Dallas, TX: 0.1% in November from October, -0.1% year-over-year:

Phoenix, AZ: +0.1% in November from October, -0.5% year-over-year:

San Antonio, TX: +0% in November from October, -0.6% year-over-year:

Denver, CO: -0.2% in November from October, -2.2% year-over-year:

Austin, TX: -0.2% in November from October, -3.0% year-over-year:

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.