Across the US, after a mindboggling Condo Bubble, from Manhattan (-19%) to Oakland (-29%), from Cape Coral (-30%) to Seattle (-14%).

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Some people buy condos to live in an urban center, close to work, or along the shore, with big views, nice amenities, and no maintenance, repairs, and yardwork. Others buy condos as rental properties or short-term vacation rentals. Condos are a popular way for mom-and-pop investors to get into multifamily. Others, especially nonresident foreign investors, buy condos to park some cash in the US and watch the price appreciate without ever doing anything with the condo. Others buy condos as a vacation home.

The first category – condo owners who live in their units – are like other homeowners: They don’t move that often and provide some stability. But the other categories can make condos very speculative, with big manias followed by big crashes.

An example of such mania-followed-by-crash is Killeen, TX, where condo prices have collapsed by 46% over the past three years through November, including by 24% year-over-year – a condo rug-pull, so to speak. But Killeen is too small (160,000 population) to be included on the list here of the bigger markets.

In the 28 bigger markets on this list (mostly cities, but also five counties, and one metropolitan statistical area), prices of mid-tier condos have dropped from 12% to 30% from their respective peaks through November. Each of them is depicted with a chart below, plus some additional data.

And then there are a bunch of markets where condo prices have dropped less than 12%, and didn’t make the cutoff. I listed over 30 of them here, but without charts.

All prices here are for mid-tier condos (the middle third by price in each market).

And one more thing… Condo prices in the cities of Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, Glendale, and Gilbert, AZ, have moved nearly in lockstep, all of them down either 12% or 13%, rounded, and they used to be on this list individually, but they’re all in the huge Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metropolitan statistical area (MSA); so instead of showing them individually with similar-looking charts and percentage changes, this list now shows the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA, the only MSA in this lineup. If some of those cities start diverging strongly from other cities in the MSA, I may revert to separate charts for some of the cities.

The 28 bigger markets where condo prices fell 12% to 30% from their peaks:

1. Cape Coral, FL: -30% (2022)
2. Oakland, CA: -29% (2022)
3. Petersburg, FL: -27% (2022)
4. Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
5. Sarasota County, FL: -23% (2022)
6. Manhattan, NY: -19% (2022)
7. Jacksonville, FL: -18% (2022)
8. Tampa, FL: -18% (2022)
9. Collier County (Naples), FL: -17% (2022)
10. Arlington, TX: -16% (2024)
11. Detroit, MI: -16% (2021)
12. San Francisco, CA: -15% (2022)
13. Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
14. Aurora, CO: -15% (2022)
15. San Mateo County (northern Silicon Valley), CA: -14% (2022)
16. Queens, NY: -14% (2022)
17. Seattle, WA: -14% (2022)
18. Reno, NV: -14% (2022)
19. Orlando, FL: -14% (2024)
20. Garland, TX: -14% (2022)
21. Port Saint Lucie, FL: -14% (2024)
22. Boise, ID: -13% (2022)
23. Portland, OR: -13% (2022)
24. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: -12% (2024)
25. Fremont, CA: -12% (2022)
26. Raleigh, NC: -12% (2022)
27. Plano, TX: -12% (2022)
28. San Antonio, TX: -12% (2024)

The biggest year-over-year price declines of condos.

These are the markets, among our 28 markets, with the biggest year-over-year price declines in November.

• Petersburg: -16.0%
• Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers): -14.3%
• Arlington, TX: -13.4%
• Oakland, CA: -13.1%
• Sarasota County: -12.0%
• Jacksonville, FL: -10.7%
• Tampa, FL: -10.2%
• Orlando, FL: -10.2%
• Garland, TX: -9.8%
• Collier County (Naples): -9.4%
• Port Saint Lucie, FL: -9.4%
• Aurora, CO: -8.2%
• Plano: -8.1%
• Denver, FL: -6.9%
• Houston: -6.7%
• San Mateo County (northern Silicon Valley): -6.6%
• Raleigh: -6.1%
• San Diego: -6.1%
• Dallas: -5.9%
• Austin: -5.7%
• Los Angeles: -5.3%
• Miami: -5.3%
• Long Beach: -5.3%
• Atlanta: -5.1%

Some cities that didn’t make the -12% cut-off for the list:

There are many bigger markets where mid-tier condo prices have declined from their respective peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024, but not enough to make the -12% cut-off. Here are some salient examples (year of peak):

• New Orleans, LA: -11% (2022)
• Corpus Christi, TX: -11% (2023)
• Houston, TX: -11% (2024)
• Colorado Springs, CO -10% (2024)
• Sacramento, CA: -10% (2024)
• Stockton, CA: -10% (2022)
• Dallas, TX: -10% (2023)
• Lubbock, TX: -10% (2022)
• Huntsville, AL: -10% (2022)
• Salt Lake City, UT: -9% (2022)
• Henderson, NV: -9% (2022)
• Spokane, WA: -9% (2022)
• Modesto, CA: -9% (2022)
• Washington, DC: -8% (2022)
• Atlanta, GA: -8% (2023)
• Las Vegas, NV: -8% (2022)
• Fort Worth, TX: -8% (2024)
• San Diego, CA: -7% (2023)
• Miami, FL: -7% (2023)
• Memphis, TN: -7% (2024)
• Nashville, TN: -7% (2022)
• Oklahoma City, OK: -7% (2023)
• Louis, MI: -7% (2023)
• San Jose, CA: -6% (2022)
• Los Angeles, CA: -6% (2022)
• Honolulu, HI: -6% (2022)
• Long Beach, CA: -6% (2023)
• Vancouver, WA: -6% (2022)
• Madison, WI: -6% (2024)
• Minneapolis, MN: -6% (2021)
• Marietta, GA: -6% (2024)
• Madison, WI: -6% (2024)

Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

Aftertaste of the price explosion: Condo prices in many of these cities had exploded by 50%, 60%, 70% or more in the two years from mid-2020 through mid-2022, driven by mindboggling absurd buying behavior, investor-mania, and Free Money.

In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% (Oakland), 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, Chandler), and 350% (Phoenix, Mesa). And by 500% in San Bernardino, CA, where prices have just started to decline and haven’t made any of the lists yet. Now these bubbles are deflating.

In some densely populated markets, such as Manhattan or San Francisco, condos and co-ops make up a big part or the majority of home sales.

The Condo Bust by market:

The tables for each market below show from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.

Cape Coral, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-30%	-1.5%	-16.9%	137%

Prices are where they’d first been in October 2005, so over 20 years ago, well below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in mid-2006. And it continued in November, with a month-to-month drop of 1.5%, seasonally adjusted:

Oakland, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-29%	-0.7%	-13.1%	149%

Lowest since September 2015, a decade ago, and below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in mid-2006, nearly 20 years ago!

St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices
From Oct 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-27%	-1.0%	-16%	187%

Prices have dropped to where they’d first been in July 2021 after some massive month-to-month declines.

Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25%	-0.3%	-5.7%	112%

Lowest since April 2021.

Sarasota County, FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-23%	-0.8%	-12.0%	134%

Prices are almost back where they’d been at the peak of Housing Bubble 1.

Manhattan, NY, Condo & Co-op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-19%	0.4%	1.4%	211%

Prices in the Borough of Manhattan (New York County) are where they’d first been in April 2014.

Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-18%	-0.7%	-10.2%	260%

Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Nov 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-18%	-0.6%	-10.7%	150%

Collier County (Naples), FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	-0.4%	-9.4%	158%

Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2021 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-1.0%	-4.3%	258%

Lowest since September 2018.

Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.6%	-13.4%	231%

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, prices had shot up by 278%. In just the four years between mid-2020 and mid-2024, prices exploded by 63%.

San Francisco, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	0.7%	-0.6%	142%

Prices are where they’d been in mid-2015. Between 2012 and 2022, prices shot up by 86%:

Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	0.0%	-6.9%	137%

Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.4%	-8%	202%

San Mateo County, CA, Condo & Co-op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.2%	-6.6%	197%

San Mateo County, just south of San Francisco County, encompasses the northern part of Silicon Valley. There are no big cities in San Mateo County, but lots of smaller ones, packed together. The southern part of Silicon Valley is in Santa Clara County, whose biggest city is San Jose, which I track at the city level (condo prices -6.3% from the peak in 2022, -6.1% YoY).

Seattle, WA, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	0.1%	-4.9%	136%

Prices are where they’d first been in September 2017.

Queens, NY, Condo & Co-Op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	0.0%	1.9%	191%

Prices in the NYC Borough of Queens (Queens County) are back where they’d first been in March 2018.

Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.9%	-9.4%	236.1%

Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	0.1%	-4.4%	196.5%

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, prices had more than quadrupled (+320%).

Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.2%	-3.9%	244%

Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Jan 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.7%	-10.2%	156.4%

Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2001
-13%	0.2%	1%	221%

Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	0.1%	-4.4%	110%

Prices are where they’d first been in mid-2016.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.1%	-4.1%	210%

The Phoenix metropolitan statistical area includes the cities of Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, Glendale, Gilbert, Tempe, and many others. Condo prices have moved very similarly. So it makes sense to show prices at the MSA level.

Fremont, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-6.7%	208.0%

Home to Tesla’s first manufacturing plant. Prices are back to mid-2018 levels. But they had nearly tripled in the decade from 2012 to 2022!

San Antonio, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2023 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.3%	-4.8%	129%

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, prices had spiked by 115%.

Raleigh, NC, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-1.2%	-6.2%	144.1%

Plano, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2023 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.5%	-8.1%	134%

Condos confront a pile of special issues:

• Over the long term, land appreciates, most buildings depreciate to zero and are eventually torn down. The land that big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner gets 100% of any appreciation of the land.
• Prices that exploded over the past few years ended up being way too high, once the mania settled down.
• Hefty special assessments – or the threat thereof – for long-neglected major repairs dog some older condo buildings.
• Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, partly driven by spiking insurance costs in natural disaster zones, add substantially to the monthly costs of condos.
• If a condo building is on Fannie Mae’s Blacklist, financing a unit in that building gets very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers who’ll exact their pound of flesh.
• The Free Money has ended, and mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range.
• Foreign-based owners who’ve had it may want to sell. And there are fewer foreign-based buyers.
• Investors in condos as rental properties are facing stiff competition from a wave of newly completed higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.

And in case you missed it:  Lennar Further Cuts Average Sales Price of New Homes, to Lowest since 2017, -25% from Peak: That’s what this Housing Market Needs

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.