Stunning charts of how investment in industrial machinery & equipment collapsed a decade ago in Canada but stayed on track in the US.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
“According to the latest national accounts data, real investment in industrial machinery & equipment [in Canada] fell in Q2 to its lowest level on record (data back to 1981). As today’s Hot Chart shows, the divergence with the U.S. is nothing short of appalling,” wrote Stéfane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau, at Economics and Strategy, National Bank of Canada, in a note sent to subscribers today.
“How did we get here? Years of excessive regulation, and a chronic lack of ambition by successive governments in promoting domestic transformation of our natural resources—recently made worse by Washington’s protectionist agenda,” they wrote.
Their note included this stunning chart of investment in industrial machinery and equipment in the US and in Canada. Investment in both countries had roughly tracked on a similar trend for decades through 2012, and then the bottom fell out in Canada, while investment in the US continued roughly along trend.
The analysts wrote in their note: “We’ve written about the plight of Canada’s industrial sector [here, here, and here].” The first of their linked reports includes these two charts:
Private nonresidential investment, inflation adjusted:
Net capital stock in manufacturing, inflation adjusted:
In their note today, the analysts wrote:
“That failure has eroded Canada’s manufacturing base and left us at risk of becoming irrelevant in global supply chains. To Ottawa’s credit, the pledge to quickly ramp up military spending to 3.5%–5% of GDP could help catalyze a reindustrialization. But time is of the essence—if we are to salvage what’s left of the sector.
“What Canada needs is a wartime multi-pronged strategy that ends the dithering: a competitive tax regime, a sweeping reduction in red tape, and clear laws on how we intend to develop our natural resources. Clarence Decatur Howe—the architect of Canadian industrialization—showed what determined leadership can achieve. Canada must now draw on that inspiration to rebuild its industrial base before it’s too late.”
But Canada sure knows who to invest in, push, promote, subsidize, and build a housing bubble that ranks among the world’s most splendid, if not the most splendid, that not even the Financial Crisis could slow for more than a couple of quarters, but that has now run into trouble, at least in Greater Toronto:
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Can you do the same with WTO entry, GFC, QE, and US vs China manufacturing? My guess is the charts are similar.
Canada went all in on inflating assets, shifting green, pumping housing prices, and importing goods—essentially financializing its economy vs the USA.
Isn’t this the same as what the US has done compared with China?
“Isn’t this the same as what the US has done compared with China?”
yes, the US looks pretty good in that regard compared to Canada, but abysmal compared to China.
Canadian business and machinery investment depended heavily on expensive tar shale requiring high energy costs for competitive ness…. That ended in the 2010s… While the US has the Permian and tech company investment…
Canada doesn’t have a draw for investment to compete with the US, it’s very hard for a low mid population country to compare to the US on economic metrics without a solid advantage in cheap resources or location.
Banana Republic…
You completely missed it. The analysts are talking about MANUFACTURING, not resource extraction.
Read the article!!!
Wolf it would be interesting to compare Canada to other smaller population developed countries when it comes to industrialization.
We are to the USA what Russia is to China. A giant gas station in the back yard.
Canada has a ton of resources relative to its population. It’s success in developing new resources and selling those resources at high prices has varied, and not done well in recent years. People want to blame our Prime Ministers for this, but I can’t think of any Prime Minister’s who have overcome these basic drivers.
Canada has had sporadic success at developing industry. Like Saudi Arabia we don’t want to rely solely on resources. Tons of government money has been thrown at industrialization project over the decades with little to show for it.
The USA was a potential huge market for industrial output. But this is fading under Trump. So currently there is almost no point on even trying to industrialize.
It’s been nearly impossible to build any sustaining industry. All of these factors are well known. Having a government that was reluctant to go all out to develop and sell resources did not help. Having low oil prices did not help. But had we sold more resources we still would not have a strong industrial base.
The auto industry has made some progress. Having a cheaper and well education labour force, combined with a significant government support, has been attractive to the auto companies. But that is the exception.
So what is a country to do? Drill baby drill. Export to the world. Look at PM Carney’s five strategic priorities. it’s all about ramping up and selling resources.
America secure resources are yours at a reasonable price if you will be polite about it.
I guess being a WW2 size Green New Deal guy like me had better not even start a debate with you…..especially when I’m acutely sick with TDS and have been since the escalator ride.
Sorry. That was meant for Nico.
Where did all the oil sand and mineral wealth extraction profit gone to ?
Have you asked ?
Which and what companies profited most from this mining business ?
MitchV, arguably Canada’s resource bounty has resulted in a sort of “Dutch Disease” where industrial development has been concerned. Certainly the bloat of the FIRE sector hasn’t helped any, especially on the regulatory capture front.
China was going from zero.
We don’t need that scale of investment
Everyone looks bad compared to china they are building industrial capacity since admitted to WTO 40 years ago.
It’s not valid to compare western industrialized countries with China as China is an emerging market economy, and a command economy at that. The former means that EMEs can enjoy strong growth just by imitating what western countries have already done. The latter means that such countries can force the population to save resulting in more capital investment at the expense of the creature comforts of consumption.
Force the population to save? Doesnt sound like freedom IMHO.
We need a lot less government, fewer regulations, much lower gross government debt. The only way to lower government debt, is either by default, or with higher inflation above the cost of paying debt. Our central bank and our politicians will choose the latter..but i have my doubts with Carney who seems determined to jack up our countries debt. You are aware of course that Canada quit issuing inflation protected bonds in 2022…and seems determined to stick the buyers with deflated currencies..Hmm. Why would anyone want to buy this debt?
To put it another way, if you could invest in a hard asset that is:
-government backed (the government will use all its resources to ensure it never drops in value, only appreciates)
-can be sold without paying taxes on capital gains (either as a primary residence exemption or by setting up an LLC to hold it which is reassigned to the buyer by the seller following the sale)
-can be used to hide ill-gotten gains either local (drug dealing, scamming, undeclared income, etc) or foreign (drug dealing, corruption, bypassing sanctions)
-appreciate 10% or more per year as a result of the above (essentially risk-free)
…would you invest in any other venture?
Why trust a government like ours in Canada?
Nailed it! WTF — short term gain (everyone’s rich, at least if they’re homeowners) so politicians get re-elected; just ignore the long term disaster this has been for the Canadian economy!
Can-adians have become Can’t-adians? Just call 1-800-Mex-I-Can for a bit of help.
We will see if Mark Carney has the right stuff to redirect the Canadian economy, certainly his predecessor did not, but the problem goes back further than the term of his predecessor. Plus Carney has a history of supporting his predecessor’s policies. He calls himself a pragmatist, but his track record is much more that of a controlling ideologue. It is complicated. A lamentable situation, for sure.
Carney was in the co-pilot seat for a majority of the downward years. Not just an advisor to Trudeau but as the man in charge of the Bank of Canada, while wanting money printing to bail out the economy after 2008.
bingo…you nailed it Prairies!
Ideologues are only relevant in academia and progressive politics. They are failures in every other segment of society, and drag down the population in general.
But voters prefer them over boring technocrats.
Ohhhhh Canada…Let me hear you sing…
Canada does not need to make, produce anything. They all can exchange hyper inflated homes to each other and make money. No need for this industrial thing :-).
Thanks WR for this report!
Excuse me, it’s my right to spend $15 on ginger turmeric kombucha with government-subsidized income assistance while I study gender science at a government-subsidized university. Don’t you understand that I’m investing in ME? /s
Maybe when Trump finishes his presidency, he can become Prime Minister of Canada and Make Canada Great Again.
This comment is amazing
Oh! Made me laugh!
Me too. But he’ll be completely purple by then….bone spurs may even come back.
I’d say this is a good joke, but it’s more of a reality than Canadians would like to admit. The only changes happening this year are pushed on the Canadian gov’t by the US gov’t via trade talks.
Canada has done right by me. What the Americans didn’t seem to realise up until lately, is that an OVER investment in technology also displaces workers and dramatically adds to the wealth disparity gap, which inturn leads to social instability. The tradeoff of a slower rate of living standards increase, for social, political and economic stability relative to the USA, will always be worth it, imo.
Exactly right. Maybe Canadians should try free trade (and free movement of people) between the provinces. My sister is a captive in Quebec due to a health condition. There is no national health care system – every province has its own goofy system. If you live in one province you can get a free Shingles vaccine, in another you have to pay $500. It’s ridiculous.
Guaranteed your sister can move to amerika for care. 🖖🏻
It reminds me of the goofy systems in the US. My shingles vaccines (two of them) were free at Kaiser. But other insurers in the US have been known to have co-pays in the hundreds of dollars.
My daughter is a travel nurse and was easily able to get licensed in four states where she worked. Try that in Canada. NOT! Every province erects difficult to surmount barriers to lawyers, doctors, nurses, teachers etc moving from one province to another. The country operates like medieval Italy!
We can thank our federally appointed judges in the Canadian Supreme court for that one. In the articles of Confederation, each original signee (the provinces) were promised free interprovincial trade AS AN INDUCEMENT TO JOIN CONFEDERATION. Our unelected activist Supreme Court justices…re-interpreted and downgraded the meaning of that promise…in the aftermath of the Free the Beer court case, and in my opinion that decision amounted to a breech of the original contract WITHOUT the implicate signed approval of the original provinces who joined. That results in your daughters interprovince job qualification issues IMHO, You can thank the LIBERALS for that one.
Read this recently: “ At 6.4 per cent of GDP, the U.S. fiscal deficit is four times Canada’s in proportionate terms and is on track to get worse.” (Toronto Globe & Mail)
Anyhow, a recession is looking more likely than not for both Canada and the US, and the question is whether or not in this new debt-ridden environment, with Canadian real estate in a huge bubble, our “safe” Banks will hold up.
In Canada, a big part of the government debt is with the provinces. Provinces have a HUGE amount of debt. And they’re continuing to increase their debts in leaps and bounds.
When you combine US federal, state, and local net issuance of debt and compare it to Canadian federal and provincial net issuance of debt over the past four quarters, Canada is borrowing more than the US, in terms of % of GDP.
From Economics and Strategy, same shop as the charts above:
That is interesting, even though I wouldn’t know how to begin to analyze or use it for any predictions. Thanks for paying what must be a large bill in monthly paywalls.
I do know that when I was up there (Sointula, Port Hardy, Oyster Bay, Black Creek, etc, etc)for the Vancouver 1985 (or 6?) World’s Fair many of my friends were bitching about it, saying “it’s bleeding the province dry”. Had to take the ferry from Nick Kelly’s home town.
Man those things are BIG! Except Sointula’s, it was a scary ride….all those ferries travel on what I would call ” almost (if not) Open Ocean”.
This is interesting. Apparently most national debt to GDP stats only talk about federal governments, obscuring the scale of some nations’ debt problems.
What is a better source to obtain national debt to GDP, including states/provinces?
Ahh but you forget how our Federal govt crows about their low net debt to gdp, Were you aware of how they calc their net debt. They take gross federal debt MINUS Canada Pension plan assets which they don’t own to arrive at Net Government debt. Spurrel and Associates has a great you tube on that bit of financial chicanery by our CAD politians,,,and a comparison of you guys in the US are sitting on say Us SOCIAL SECURITY. The guy is a CA who made the video, We are both bankrupt.
It was the RADICAL LEFTLEANING LIBERALS under TRUDEAU who were the architets of Canadas Decline .. just as was the case in EUROPE
Yep, those lefties don’t just want your money, they want your SOUL.
Hey, you must know some good Ole and Lars jokes. right?
Trudeau was a good guy who just didn’t do much.
Harper was a good guy who went a bit nuts and lost touch with fundamentals.
Chretien was a good guy who got drunk on his own power.
Trump has always been unstable.
There’s a trend here somewhere.
Oddly enough, I met two people this summer who personally met Carney while he worked at the BoE. Both, unsolicited, stated that he was a smart and classy guy that his staff liked and was great to work with. So I hold out hope; time will tell.
Yeah. I heard Carney was a real pro, also…..his BofE experience and all that.
Good luck, I do know many of you hate being tied so tightly to this USA sick mess.
Would I be right in thinking, if you run the BofE and the staff like you, you are not making the tough decisions?
And given the Liberals have been in power since 2015, and were advised by Carney—what have they accomplished by 2025,,,Diddly squat and more debt and higher inflation.
Were you aware of the fact that Chretien sold off th
e majority of Canada’s gold in the Bank of Canada, none was subsequently added by other parties, and Trudeau the second sold the last off in 2015-2016.
We currently have zero gold reserves backing our dollar…our bills are made of plastic, and all our coins are magnetic with no PM value at all? Dump all the coins on your iPad and watch em all stick, even the recently retired “copper” penny with a steel blank in it.
Its perhaps no surprise our fiat currency has no value at all,
No. Canada had one card… Oil shale, that doesn’t work in the era of cheap US oil. The collapse of oil in the 2010s wasn’t Trudeau’s fault.
Banana Republic…
You completely missed it. The analysts are talking about MANUFACTURING, not resource extraction.
Read the article!!!
He’s got more than that wrong! The head guy in US shale said to the industry: ‘Stop drilling’ months ago. Shale needs about 60 $ US to break even. More production just hurts everyone in the biz right now.
Canada’s oil is from oil sands not fracking. They aren’t happy with the low prices but can break even at 40 US.
BTW: I’m in CNQ a big oil sands co. Hasn’t been doing much since I went in about 3 weeks ago, now today up 2 %!
Go Ukraine, go!
The yelling of “RADICAL LEFTLEANING LIBERALS” only shows your lack of information, accurate information at least. You probably blame “TRUDEAU” for such low spending on the CAF on those left leaning Liberals, well as it happens Prime Minister Trudeau was handed a military that Stephen Harper gutted to below 1%, lowest ever. Those RIGHT LEANING CONSERVATIVES make a mess in the playroom and then leave it for someone, anyone to clean up. So you stay in Alberta and sulk. ❤️🇨🇦
And given the Liberals have been in power since 2015, and were advised by Carney—what have they accomplished by 2025,,,Diddly squat and more debt and higher inflation.
About thirty years ago I found myself asking why the western provinces of Canada couldn’t become US states. Then Quebec splits off and Ontario – where 60-70% of Canadians live and all the political power resides – is the new European welfare state type Canada. Seems like louder voices than mine are saying some of the same things now. Maybe this hard economic data shows it’s a better idea now than ever.
Whither the Maritime Provinces? They always seem to get lost in this type of discussion…
Some are called “Newfies” in Toronto and considered to be all stupid. Many Newfie jokes. Kinda like the Hamtramck Polish jokes in our rust belt here.
When I was doing LASER engraving consulting in Toronto in ’80, the guy who hired me said the Canadian Gov’t paid the full tab for the cost of anyone who brings a NEW INDUSTRY into Canada, which I did.
Everything…..wages, housing food, “sundries”, and as he was paying me off in US $100s when I was leaving he said. “We’d like to keep you around longer, but the bar tab is getting suspicious”. Me and his younger (my age) business partner who’s sister he married were really living it up blasting around Toronto in his Corvette. A lady who worked there jokingly accused me of, “Drinking Lake Ontario dry” every AM.
Meanwhile…200 *million* former subsistance farmers in China were willing to work 70 hours a week in low automation factories and live 8 to a room in factory dormitory housing on site…
…so here we are 25-35 years later.
2015 is a stand out year in those charts.
Yes, Trudeau became a PM, a sad day for Canada.
2015 energy crash. Killed Canadas tar sands and investment driver.
Banana Republic…
You completely missed it. The analysts are talking about MANUFACTURING, not resource extraction.
Read the article!!!
His agenda is showing Mr. Richter. That side of the debate in Canada is the reason the industrial sector in Canada has been on pause as legal battles hold up every possible attempt to grow. Taxation is punishing the established industries, lawyers representing activists block expansion of any and all expansions and just to make the whole thing look like a comedy, they have emissions rules stopping a Canadian electric truck project. No one can win.
WSJ: California Trucking Firms Go Under, Fueling Wider Industry Fears
No recovery from years long slump in sight as imports, factory activity and other drivers of demand sag
I gave up covering smaller trucking companies that go bankrupt years ago. There are just too many of them. They’re kind of like restaurants. New ones come, others go.
The general media is pushing the Tricolor Subprime Auto bankruptcy hard as a canary in the coal mine.
The general media is clueless about subprime dealer-lenders and ABS.
The 1990s slump was all due to NAFTA and the crazy Canadian central banker who left interest rates way too high, he should have made a movie “I see inflation even when its not there”. Canada recovered much more slowly than the US and the Canadian Government did not help with big spending cuts. Manufacturing was pouring out of Ontario in the 1990s.
The big surge in the 2010s is from the massive growth in investments in conventional and tar sand oil with much, much higher oil prices. Things were crazy in Alberta back in those days. That investment has slumped with the collapse in the oil price in 2014/2015.
Apart from digging and drilling holes in the ground and growing food and trees there really isn’t that much manufacturing in Canada. And why invest in productivity when you can get reams of cheap labour coming off the planes every week?
Thank you. Finally someone brought up the 2014,15 energy crash.
It stands out in my mind because it was the only time I actually saw deflation in my life. Prices actually FELL across the spectrum in 2015 as a fallout of this. That was interesting because there was no major correction the markets (although they got very wobbly, almost looking like a crash, at the start of 2016).
Banana Republic…
You completely missed it. The analysts are talking about MANUFACTURING, not resource extraction.
Read the article!!!!
Perhaps you ought to think about our uncompetitive tax rates with the U
SA, our major trading power, We are so screwed with taxes on our succesful entrapraneurs now getting taxed at over 50% in most of the country. Our business taxes are also non competitive with the USA. And the Liberals tried and failed to jack up the capital gains inclusion tax from 50% to 60% as part of the “let the rich pay just a bit more” for their socialist programs. Endless red tape and environmental opposition led Kerr McGee to exit the Trans Mountain pipeline project…forcing the Trudeau to buy them out, and finally finished it–away over the original budget for construction,,,Its now wonder capital has poured out of Canada, with much lower business investment in factors which normally improve our dismal rock bottom worker productivity numbers—and declining income for the same folks. we are well and truly screwed by …the Liberals here
Regulatory tale of 3 countries: Patented simple surgical device that lowers the cost of a common surgical procedure. Prototype disposable tip cost usd$300 in the usa with production tips quoted $30/piece. This was not commercially viable. Chinese prototypes provided free with top quality production units @ $0.30/piece. FDA clearance to sell in the USA was difficult until a great attorney beat down a woke activist FDA examiner in front of his boss such that the boss cleared our device. Then requested our regulatory consultant to prepare the submission for Canada regulatory approval. Consultant said “fugetaboutit” as Canadian regulatory framework is impossible to deal with. Canadian docs wanted the device but had to explain about their government “protections”. Panicked first (and best) by selling all USA real estate in 2022, retired and currently relaxing in beautiful, modern and immaculate Xiamen, China where 5 star ocean view hotel rooms cost $70/night, dinner for two at a nice restaurant is $10 and taxi rides in new BYD EVs cost $2. Midnight strolls everywhere are perfectly safe. Put your wallet/purse down, walk away, no one touches it. No homeless, no protesters, no tweakers. Lovin it.
How’s the weather? Do you need to speak the local language?
@Brian Here in Xiamen the weather is like Houston. For China weather in general, its similar to the corresponding latitude in the USA. They even have Hainan island down south known as the “Hawaii of China” at a 75% discount.
The rumor I have always heard is that Chinese do not like foreigners. But as with many things said about China in the West, it may be complete BS. I’d be interested to hear from someone who actually lives there about that.
CSH,
Like many/most/nearly all peoples of the world, the Chinese tend to view themselves as the center of many/most/nearly all things.
The centuries old phrase “Middle Kingdom” sounds fairly benign but it really meant *central* kingdom.
Alongside centuries of civil wars/unrest, there were also centuries of “tributary attitudes” toward neighboring states.
But this was far from unique to China.
Today?
1) On the one hand, many/most (not nearly all – 1.2 billion is too big for “nearly all”) Chinese know that their 25-35 year industrial rise is pretty much unprecedented in human history.
2) And largely bought through self-sacrifice and government control/manipulation but
3) They don’t trust their own Chinese leadership enough *to not* get a large percent of their hard-won savings the hell out of China.
So it is a mixed attitude towards outsiders/the outside world.
Just like most places.
@Brian Learning Mandarin helps, and is fun, but not required. Hotels have English speakers. Google Translate and local translator apps fill in where needed.
LOL you can put your wallet down and walk away but you can’t express any sentiment toward leadership except utter devotion, and there is literally no rule of law. Wealthy Chinese people are not fools, they are taking everything they possibly can put of the country, where it can’t be confiscated.
@Happy1 Oh, do you mean riot about lack of entitlements, block traffic and burn/loot stores? Correct, thankfully can’t do that here. But there is no reason to as there is not much to complain about. References on flight of capital? The wealthy friends I have here are financially diversified but certainly not running for the hills as you imply. But I agree that they’re not fools as they have options but prefer living in China. No rule of law? Sure feels the opposite to me here on the ground in China, and I’d venture a guess that a huge swath (most?) of the population of the US and EU are complaining right now that there is no rule of law there. Certainly one of the reasons I left the US and rarely return as I don’t want to get randomly stabbed on a train, shot due to my opinions or mobbed by rioters.
@CSH Yep, west media propaganda is just that. I’m here extremely often for extended periods of time. Everyone is either polite or indifferent. They don’t really seem to have much of an opinion about foreigners other than we’re a curiosity. Here in Xiamen, I’m out and about daily yet go weeks without seeing a single person that is non-Asian (Caucasian or a person of color). Just my local experience as I’ve been meaning to see most other areas of China but it’s just so nice, comfy and low-cost here in Xiamen that I can’t motivate lol.
I believe it. Back in the day, some time in 2009, HSBC was struggling due to the financial meltdown and decided to do a special share offerring to raise some funds. It went ahead in countries all over the world, but they left Canada out because the regulatory headaches were just too big…
But Canada is going to hit their zero emission targets a lot easier without any industry. They may go down in a ball of fire but at least they did their bit to make world a better place.
It’s amazing that a place with so many natural resources and not a large population can be mismanaged by government so badly. What I’m not clear about Canada is who is profiting or is no one really making any revenue because governments have strangled industries?
China
“That failure has eroded Canada’s manufacturing base and left us at risk of becoming irrelevant in global supply chains. To Ottawa’s credit, the pledge to quickly ramp up military spending to 3.5%–5% of GDP could help catalyze a reindustrialization. But time is of the essence—if we are to salvage what’s left of the sector. ”
Lots of that military spending hopium going around. It never factors in the toll it would take on an economy that actually has to seriously use the firepower in a throw-down.
Agreed. Not to mention that military spending is like regulatory spending in that it doesn’t actually produce anything that society can use and benefit from…unless they sell the hardware via exports.
Guess who led the country from 2015-2025. Its not rocket science. I could have told you this for free
That’s pretty bad logic
If oil was still 120 a barrel for last ten years…
At 5 million barrels per day for 10 years at a 70 premium to real world is over a trillion in lost revenue thanx to the crash, or about 5% less GDP every year
Banana Republic…
You completely missed it. The analysts are talking about MANUFACTURING, not resource extraction.
Read the article!!!
Wolf: Actually, a lot of Canadian Manufacturing, of Industrial products went into the Oil Sands, and other extraction industries.
We made matting for rigs and cranes but that business dropped 70% overnight roughly a decade ago.
And FWIW, “Made in China” oil derricks and donkeys wiped out the entire Canadian Industry. Perhaps in the U.S. too?
This article is NOT about sales by manufactures, but about investment in manufacturing to boost manufacturing.
So sales of your matting are down because of tar sands or whatever. That’s SALES, not investment.
But the country needs to INVEST in manufacturing of products for which there is demand to BOOST manufacturing output – that’s what the entire article was about. Canada has quite a bit of manufacturing, such as autos, aerospace, food products, wood products, other consumer products, etc., but not nearly enough and lost of lot of it. Offshoring manufacturing to China and other countries — investing in those countries instead of in Canada — is one of the culprits. Same as in the US. But it needs to be reversed by investing in Canada. That’s what the article is about.
”Canada is bleeding capital at the fastest rate since the Financial Crisis. Statistics Canada’s (Stat Can) latest data shows foreign investors pulled billions from the country in Q2, with domestic investors joining the exodus. This goes beyond tariffs—the sheer scale and pace of outflows point to deeper structural cracks and fading confidence in the country’s future.”
”Canada Hasn’t Seen Foreign Capital Flight At This Pace Since The Financial Crisis
Canada’s global investment appeal suffered its biggest setback since the Financial Crisis. Foreign investors sold off $16.8B in Canadian securities in Q2—the largest divestment since Q4 2007. The pullback was primarily in bonds (-$10.3 billion), but substantial withdrawals were also seen in money market instruments (-$3.6B) and equities & fund shares (-$3.0B). This follows a $5.8B divestment in Q1, making $22.65B withdrawn to date. The days of Canada being viewed as a safe haven during volatile times may be coming to an end, and this can have a big impact on households. ”
”Less foreign capital means a weaker loonie, eroding confidence and pushing borrowing costs higher. When investors dump bonds, prices fall and yields rise—driving up fixed mortgage rates, especially if Ottawa floods the market with debt into weak demand. ”
While I also yearn for the collapse of the Canadian housing bubble, Better Dwelling your source for these headlines isn’t the most reputable website. They’ve been permabears on Canadian housing since they were established and still haven’t been correct
Though a broken clock is right twice a day?
Why all the bleeding heart complaints? You voted the Trudeaus into power very resoundingly for many years and have now got exactly what you wanted. You should all be very proud of yourselves for achieving your goals.
Trudeau the Younger didn’t get elected until 2015, a full 25 years after manufacturing investment in Canada diverged from US levels as the second chart (if you even bothered to look at it).
I guess TDS knows no borders … 🤨
“Canada is ranked #5 in the world for quality of life. The US is ranked #22.” Which would you choose to live in of the two countries, especially with the political turmoil that is taking place now in the US?
Am I an ambitious person building a business or an emigree from the 3rd world for easy living on the dole? Very different answer depending on that answer. Canada is running out of the former and has way to many of the latter.
Yea, all natural born citizens are ambitious. In fact that’s all I see cutting lawns, clearing tables, preparing food, picking produce, building houses, etc. All white too. Glad to see I’m not the only one that can see things clearly.
Happy is a black and white “thinker”, Me.
“Very different answer depending on that answer.”
Don’t expect discourse, he is just a sniper.
I don’t know how old you are, but I sure do remember having fresh fruit, clean hotel rooms, well kept yards, and even more housing construction 40 years ago than today. All without 20% of the population being (il)legal immigrants. How did that ever happen?
Miatadon
“Quality of life” is in the eye of the beholder.
I personally was refused entry into Canada to visit friends and help on a house in ’07 in a 94 fully equipped worktruck and my dog and the “reason” was for 2 US DUIs and a dropped US assault charge all prior to ’85, not as much as a parking ticket since.
“We take DUI and assault seriously in Canada,” the lady told me.
That is NOT an open border, oh Happy one.
I had been going up there since ’63…maybe 8-9 visits to Canadian friends and 2 to my great Uncle in Dunster BC.
Wrong reply box and I did not see Happy post before writing the second one….sorry Wolf.
@NBay,
Ouch, that border denial story is harsh. I’ve lived 2 years in Canada, so I do have first hand experience with life there.
There are more than 400K students on visas in Canada from India. At least 20K of those students have never bothered to attend the college they were admitted to. Most of them aren’t at University, they are “enrolled” in the Canadian equivalent of community college.
The US and Australia both require students to pay tuition prior to entering the country on a student visa.
For unclear reasons, Canada doesn’t require this, and immigrants from the third world, but most especially the poor parts of India, are exploiting this loophole as a free pass into Canada.
Anyway, this is not widely known in the US, but it is pretty common knowledge in Canada. On a population basis, imagine if there were 4 million people from India in the US on student visas, many of them not real students, and add in the availability of state subsidized benefits, and you get some idea of why people in Canada are upset.
Do your sources also know what % of them still have both kidneys?
It could have National Health Care implications.
@ Me,
I’m talking about immigrants in both cases, not people who already live here.
Do you think a smart young software entrepreneur from India with ambition and a great idea is looking to move to Canada?
Do you think someone with a large extended family seeking a phony student visa for a shady college so he can bring 20 relatives to live in subsidized housing and receive subsidized healthcare is looking to live in the US? With this administration?
Incentives matter.
Betterdwilling 10 september 2025
Canadian life satisfaction is slipping before it recovers from the pandemic. The average score fell to 7.0 in Q2 2025, down 0.1 points from the prior quarter. It was the first decline in over a year, and a strong warning that the drawn-out pandemic recovery is stalling again.
Life satisfaction in Q2 2025 shows a clear provincial divide. Quebec leads at 7.5, half a point above the national average. Atlantic Canada follows, with PEI (7.3), New Brunswick (7.3), and Newfoundland (7.2) all outperforming. Nova Scotia and Manitoba matched the national average at 7.0.
On the low end, Ontario (6.8) is tied with Saskatchewan and BC (6.8 each). Alberta ranks last at 6.6, underscoring persistent dissatisfaction in Western Canada.
The split shows a recovery that isn’t just fragile, but deeply uneven across the country.
The drop in the national life satisfaction score isn’t a blip, but more quantitative evidence of eroding sentiment. It comes amid record capital flight and an unprecedented number of Canadians relocating for good. The recovery is incomplete, uneven, and already collapsing—which will create long-term structural inequalities.
Julien:
That is hilarious. All of Canada’s Welfare Provinces are more satisfied than the Provinces that get taxed extra to send to the Welfare Queens? What else did you expect?
The political turmoil that is made up by reddit?
Stop hiding behind BS united nation rankings…they dont mean anything…you can live in the #5 country all you want but if you have no job or economy or food it doesnt amount to anything
Canada is an incredible place to live compared to the states. I have lived in both. Canadians at least the rural ones are frugal and dont care about the latest gadget. You may not pick up in the numbers but some of the best manufacturing is going on. my neighbours in order of address. sawmill, plumber, master welder, boat builder, carpenter. farmer, organic greenhouse farmer, dont know, excavating service, dont know, livestock farmer. and me lazy retired american expat who can pound a nail or run a backhoe or a lathe when needed. and when I broke my ankle my total bill with surgery and the ambulance ride was 140.00 for the ambulance ride. My neighbour had a hip replacement and his wife a knee replacement, for 0 dollars. We all have used equipment and make it last as long as possible.
Lol ok
Likewise just got my hip replaced 10 weeks ago Wednesday — zero cost to me personally.
But you just go right ahead and “LOL” … 🙄
I live and will stay in the US,thanks for asking though.
Sure,some challenging times here and feel will get even more challenging,that said,have had a good life here and owe it to me friends kids and all kids in US to work and if necessary fight to get the country back on track for the next generations.
X James 1911
When someone mention me “moving to Canada” I always reply that the best antidote to wanting to move to Canada is….moving to Canada…just go and report back. I lived there, no thanks. I personally met only two people that did the move independently up north and guess what, they are both back in the good old US…
That article is suspicious since the GDP per capita is $61k in the article but according to Trading Economics the GDP per capita is $44.4k in 2024 and only on pace to $45k in 2025. The GDP in Canada has been in decline and is currently being projected higher, but projections are always sunnier than reality.
Prairies,
Yes but…
Trading Economics of $44.4k = US$44.4K, this is World Bank data in chained 2017 dollars converted to USD since it’s World Bank data).
In chained 2017 CANADIAN dollars, it was C$58.8k per StatCan in Q2
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610070601
I didn’t read the “Canada is #5” article and don’t know what they were walking about. So I cannot comment on the “$61k.” But guessing: maybe is was USD World Bank data but not adjusted to inflation, so current GDP per capita expressed in USD by the world Bank. The difference between US$44.4k and US$61k would be inflation in Canada from 2017 to 2024. And that would make sense.
Replying to Miatadon
I’m an immigrant from Europe, I moved first to Canada and then the US (I’m citizen of both) and I can tell you that for a motivated hard working person there is simply no comparison. These “Quality of Life” ranking are mostly BS and sometimes even worse, just paid advertisement dressed as “studies”. These is no way that I could have got as far as I did in the US if I did stay in Canada. Cost of housing alone is a big deal, many comfortably middle class young Canadians can only dream about home ownership nowadays. The geographic diversity of the US and the gigantic American economy simply outmatch Canada in any possible way, you simply have so many more choices. When my Canadian friends visit me, especially at my second home in Tampa Bay, they are simply amazed (and pretty angry) at the type of home you can get there for the price of a dog crate condo in Vancouver….
What is it about the mantra that military industry is good for the economy.
In my book it is a drag on the economy, because the resources you put into this industry will not be earned back.
If you build farm equipment or forest harvesting machines, they are tools to produce revenue.
The only way military equipment becomes profitable is to invade another country with it and plunder everything you can. Or sell them to somebody else so they can do the plundering. But now the whole west is thinking of producing army equipment. To sell to whom?
This way of ‘new’ thinking has bad outcomes.
Military equipment is a big export product category. But a country has to have a functional industry to develop, make, and export these products.
crv – if our species and it’s ingenuity didn’t constantly find the products (and byproducts) of arms races fascinating, and sadly, necessary in the face of constant arms obsolescence and geopolitical disagreements (and therefore a guaranteed-profitable ‘mantra’ for somebody) the rut of history’s tire track might have yielded a different tread pattern…(the club, the spear, the throwing stick, the sling, the bow, Old Stone Age points, Folsom points, copper, bronze, iron, gunpowder, steel, ballistic missiles, nukes (an admittedly-truncated list)- anyone?).
may we all find a better day.
If the United States is supposedly “investing” so much money in manufacturing, why don’t we have anything to show for it? In the last fifteen years, US Manufacturing output on a dollar basis has been essentially unchanged, with the outlier being a significant increase in 2020 – 2022. (See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOMA).
Are these numbers a sign of the U.S. doing something right, or engaging in massive mal-investment?
If you link a chart, at least look at it and don’t lie about it.
“In the last fifteen years…” the index you linked has shot up by 58%!
Since the end of 2019, it has shot up by 26%
Change your screen name to “Innumerate.”
Canada de-industrialized with adoption of the climate change hoax.
It’s all working to plan! Politicians all want the same – make Canada great and get elected. Unfortunately, they keep coming up with solutions looking for a problem instead of the other way around. But that’s okay – it’s the Canadian way.
For example, we keep throwing billions at the car industry and, after all these billions, it has become a small player in the Ontario economy. One day, it may even pay back some the interest this money has cost the benevolent Canadian taxpayer. But that’s so last year.
Last year, the voters almost took a risk on change by electing the conservatives, but we managed to save ourselves at the last minute and reelect our disgraced Liberals. With increasing limits on free speech, we won’t face such a risk again.
We could work our strengths but its been much easier to suck on the American teat – until Trump. Now we’re running scared. We wonder what went wrong but don’t have a mirror.
Lots of Albertans and other Canadian fossil fuel honks in the comments here, with predictable results.
I’m old enough to have voted against the original Canada/US FTA (and lost) — the second chart indicates that I was right to be leery of its consequences. I would prefer to have been wrong, because the results have been painful.
Toronto and Ottawa call the shots regardless of who’s the leader in their respective provinces and territories.
And from 2015 to 2020 was more of protecting social interests than creating jobs (as if creating another bureaucrat is considered productivity).
Real estate was just another cash cow for bureaucrats to get from land transfer taxes, property taxes, and as one writer alleged “snow-washing dirty money” into Canadian real estate (which eventually ends up in corrupt politicians’ pockets and benefit the landlord class of politicians who own several rental properties).
Starting a business that time was replete with red tape, and the social interest causes did not better in terms of being at risk of hauled into a Kangaroo Court tribunal for offending someone’s feelings.
Let’s see what the current PM will do in terms of expanding the industrial economy.
Let me be short and to the point, Wolf is from Europe so he understands what I’m talking about.
In a nutshell, Canada actually combines the negative aspects of Europe and the US.
European bureaucracy, relatively low salaries for professionals, lack of dynamism, low productivity and innovation (Europe actually has been innovative in certain areas) with the US hire and fire culture and meager social safety net then, cherry on top of that, horrendous weather pretty much everywhere in the country. Frankly, if I have to stay in North America I rather go for the money and opportunities….
Pretty sure Wolf is in California. (This is what a “short” comment would look like)
The drop in machinery and equipment is all related to the drop oil sands spending which started to fall significantly in 2014 which almost perfectly matches or correlates to the chart of drop in Canadian industrial machinery and equipment chart.. pretty simple.
Nah, the biggies in Canadian manufacturing are automotive manufacturing, aerospace, food, etc. The manufacturing of equipment for the oil and gas industry is not the to biggie.