Each market dances to a different drummer. But in some metros, the drummer hasn’t gotten out of bed yet.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The inventory of homes for sale in the Nashville metro spike to a new decade high in July. The inventory increases in the metros of Atlanta, Washington DC, and Columbus brought levels back into the normal-ish range that prevailed in the years before the pandemic. Inventory in the Boston metro has come up a lot, by 61% in two years, but remains well below the pre-pandemic levels. In the Detroit metro, inventories have surged by 35% in two years but are still down by 37% from 2019.
Each market dances to its own drummer, and inventories are diverging – though they’re increasing in all of them compared to 2024 and 2023. In some metros, such as Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia, that drummer hasn’t even gotten out of bed yet.
In other vast markets, discussed earlier here, inventories have reached by far the highest levels for July in the data from Realtor.com going back to 2016. Inventories have shot through the roof in Texas and spiked in the Florida metros, and they soared in the formerly hottest markets in California – some to new decade highs, and others still below the prepandemic years. And in other big metros in the West, inventories are also piling up, such as in Denver, Seattle, Phoenix, Tucson, Portland, and Las Vegas.
It’s not because new listings are inundating the market – they’re not, far from it. It’s because demand has plunged, and homes sit on the market for a long time before they sell or get pulled off the market.
In the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin metro, active listings spiked by 30% year-over-year and by 64% from July 2023, to 10,880 listings, the highest in the data from Realtor.com, which goes back to 2016.
Each of the last three months have been records in the decade of data. The pandemic trough was filled in 2024, and now is the overshoot.
Properties sat 55 days on the market before they sold or got pulled off the market, that’s about 20 days longer than in the Julys before the pandemic.
The trough had been caused by the Fed-repressed 3% mortgage rates during a time of raging inflation which reached 9%, and enough buyers didn’t put their old home on the market in order to ride the price spike up all the way, which then fueled the price explosion further till mid-2022. And now, those homes are coming out of the woodwork, and demand has slumped.
In the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metro, active listings spiked by 31% year-over-year in July and by 105% from July 2023, to 28,989 homes listed for sale, the third highest July in the data from Realtor.com, behind the Julys of 2019 (30,690 homes) and 2016 (32,373 homes).
In the Columbus, OH, metro, inventory jumped by 14% year-over-year and by 79% from July 2023, to 4,058 homes, roughly flat with July 2019 and down by 4% from July 2018.
The seasonal peaks are around September or October.
In the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro, active listings jumped by 56% year-over-year in July, and by 95% from July 2023, to 13,669 homes listed for sale, having suddenly in the span of a few months emerged from the pandemic trough, but remain below the prepandemic Julys.
In the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro, inventory jumped by 25% year-over-year and by 61% from July 2023, to 7,286 homes for sale, roughly level with July 2020, and well below the prepandemic years.
These big year-over-year increases over the past two year came off ultra-low levels. So active listings were still 31% below 2019 and 28% below the inventories in July 2018 and 2019.
In the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro, active listings jumped by 22% year-over-year, and by 35% from July 2023 to 9,450 homes, just a hair below July 2020, and well below the prior Julys in the data from Realtor.com.
Compared to July 2019, listings were still down by 37%, and compared to 2018 by 27%. The seasonal peaks are in September or October.
In the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metro, active listings rose by 11% year-over-year, and by 35% from July 2023 to 8,174 homes, the highest since July 2020 and well below the pre-pandemic Julys.
Compared to July 2019, listings were still down by 31%, and compared to 2018 by 14%.
In the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington metro, active listings jumped by 19% year-over-year and by 35% from July 2023 to 11,227 homes, roughly level with July 2020 and below the prior Julys going back to 2016.
Compared to July 2019, listings were down by 45%, and compared to July 2018, by 49%.
In the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro, active listings rose by 9% year-over-year and by 13% from July 2023 to 36,844 homes for sale, more than in July 2023 and 2024, but less than in any prior Julys in the data from Realtor.com which goes back to 2016.
Compared to July 2019, inventory is down by 46%, and compared to July 2018, by 43%.
In the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro, active listings rose by 5% year-over-year and by 15% from July 2023, to 15,717 homes, well below the prior Julys.
Compared to July 2019, listings were down by 60%, and compared to July 2018, by 58%.
The seasonal highs are roughly in September and October. Chicago’s drummer hasn’t gotten out of bed yet.
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“The inventory of homes for sale in the Nashville metro spike to a new decade high in July. The inventory increases in the metros of Atlanta, Washington DC, and Columbus brought levels back into the normal-ish range that prevailed in the years before the pandemic. Inventory in the Boston metro has come up a lot, by 61% in two years, but remains well below the pre-pandemic levels”
Translation and prediction on what we will see across here and on Reddit
Folks in Atlanta, Washington DC and Columbus…”Oh maybe the market is slowing down but maybe there are still people buying….this shall pass or not”
Folks in Boston…”Nope not in my neighborhood, homes selling in less than a min and lines are out the door overbidding..”
Howdy Folks. What a fantastic ride this has been. Youngins should be amazed as the RE future unfolds. Fun to ride this out here at Wolfstreet.
THANKS Lone Wolf. No other place like your website.
I was just talking with a colleague today that is trying to sell his place. He was stating that its priced very reasonable and doesn’t understand why it isn’t selling. So, I asked him what we do when a car sits on the lot a long time and doesn’t sell. His response…..”we lower the price until it sells”. Nice guy, but he couldn’t put two and two together. This seller entitlement is so deep it obscures reason. Eventually peoples hands will be forced and reality will settle in.
Definitely more homes getting listed in my neighborhood on Long Island. When we were buying last summer it was our home and one around the corner that were listed.
This summer Ive counted 7 so far….out of those only one looks like it needs a complete gut. The rest have been somewhat tastefully renovated over the years and will prolly sell quickly.