Active Listings compared to April 2019: Jacksonville +23%, North Port-Sarasota +29%, Tampa +31%, Orlando +40%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +42%, Lakeland-Winter Haven +71%.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Unsold inventory of existing homes for sale is piling up in Florida at a stunning rate. Active listings jumped by 35% year-over-year in April, to 182,589 homes, by far the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016, and was 23% higher than in April 2019. There’s a housing shortage until there suddenly isn’t.
The month-to-month surges in February, March, and April were particularly spectacular. It seems sellers have lost patience with “this too shall pass,” in terms of the 6%-plus mortgage rates, and have started to put their homes on the market in larger numbers, and leave them on the market when they don’t sell, instead of pulling them off the market within a short time. But buyers are on strike.
So inventory has been piling up because sales plunged. Lots of supply, little demand. Why? Because prices are far too high after the price explosion since 2020, and those too-high prices have triggered demand destruction, one of the most fundamental economic dynamics.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro: Active listings jumped by 41% year-over-year in April, to 51,987 homes, the third-highest in the data, behind only February and March 2019. Compared to April 2019, inventory was 2% higher.
The Miami metro is still a little behind the other big Florida metros, in terms of the inventory pile-up, but it’s coming right along now:
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro: Unsold inventory jumped by 32% year-over-year in April, after three majestic month-to-month jumps in a row totaling 21%, to 19,310 homes, the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016. Unsold inventory was 31% higher than in April 2019.
Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro: Active listings spiked by 41% year-over-year in April, to 14,580 homes, along with March the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016, and 42% higher than in April 2019.
There is some pre-covid seasonality in the metro where March marked the high point, and then inventory fell in April and continued falling till about September. But this year, instead of falling in April, inventory was essentially unchanged. The same occurred during the inventory surge a year ago.
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro: Active listings spiked by 45% year-over-year in April, to 13,765 homes, by far the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016, and up 40% from April 2019:
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro: Active listings spiked by 32% year-over-year in April, after six majestic month-to-month jumps in a row totaling 58%, to 11,234 homes, the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016, and up 29% from April 2019.
Jacksonville metro: Active listings spiked by 35% year-over-year in April, after three majestic month-to-month jumps in a row, similar what we’ve seen in the other metros, totaling 20%, to 9,676 homes, the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016, and up 23% from April 2019.
Lakeland-Winter Haven metro: Unsold inventory jumped by 29% year-over-year in April, to 5,191 homes, by very far the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016. It was 71% higher than in April 2019, and 107% higher than in April 2018. Showing signs of a glut:
Prices have shot up way too far: For example, the prices of mid-tier homes in the Tampa metro spiked by 60% from 2020 to the peak in mid-2022. That’s what triggered demand destruction, one of the most fundamental economic dynamics:
Demand destruction: In the South, pending sales of existing homes were again down year-over-year in March, and marked the worst March in the data from the National Association of Realtors going back to 2011, though they rose from February, seasonally adjusted. Compared to March 2019, pending sales were down 25%.
And that’s the problem: At these way-too-high prices, result of the massive price-spike since 2020, demand destruction has set in, which is why inventory is piling up. But there is a classic cure for any demand destruction – there always is: substantially lower prices.
Home prices have started to move lower in many metros, including in Florida: The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets
Condos are making particularly sharp moves: In 15 Bigger Cities, Condo Prices Already -10% to -22%, 5 Are in Florida with Accelerating Drops. Absurdity Comes Unglued
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Interestingly, today’s bubble peak, inflation adjusted, is about the same as the 2007-8 bubble peak. If history follows, we may be looking at some bargains in the near future.
For context, how does inventory of 182K listings compare to the depths of the financial crisis?
Miami is still a good long-term bet for housing. The booming Sun Belt won’t die down in population for decades to come, and everyone needs a place to live.
Wonder if most of the RE agents are having any honest conversation with their sellers like lower your price to move those supply and stop hanging onto 2022-23 prices or they are still selling BS narrative like oh rate is going to get cut soon and floods of demand will pile up again or telling them one of area is still having bidding wars..etc.
Anecdotally, been seeing way more email blasts on houses for sale from Redfin in SoCal compare to last 6 months, now daily I get about 4-5 a day on areas I searched before, probably doesn’t mean anything. It’s still funny to see some gem from these ads though, hopium is still around and once in a while you’ll still see sold with price increase and the original price wasn’t cheap to begin with..like the gem below.
$690,000
2 Beds · 2 Baths · 862 Sq. Ft.
Laguna Niguel, CA
Phoenix Ikki, that’s not a bad price for a property in Laguna Niguel. I wonder if it is a tear-down, right next to the freeway, or maybe the seller is low-balling the price.
Excellent piece, Wolf. The national implications are definitely something to watch. Your work, as always, delivers just the facts – a true Dragnet for our times.
Wolfman, there is no mention of the Florida panhandle :-(
I’m not surprised Florida will be the first to drop in price due to the housing bubble, as its always been more of a speculative state for real estate and a lot more pro-real estate developer than California and other states.
The Panama City Beach area is still growing because of tourism (within a 14 hour drive of Chicago and 5 hours of Atlanta) and other industries like Eastern Shipyard, Kraton Chemical Plant, SeaPort of Panama City, Berg Pipe, Miller Marine custom boats construction, Trane HVAC manufacturing, the new teaching hospital and medical research facility run by Florida State University, as well as the Coast Guard base, the Naval Station Panama City and Tyndall Air Force Base.
Also Panama City Beach is becoming popular for off season or non beach weather (December 1-February 28) tourism with different types of major events and conventions.
1. “there is no mention of the Florida panhandle”
The metros here are the largest metros in Florida. They’re just not in the Panhandle.
2. The Panama City Beach area is still growing because of tourism …
what’s growing is inventory, LOL. In the Panama City-Panama Beach metro, inventory is double of where it was in April 2019. It’s among the worst in Florida:
A D, do you work for the Panama City Chamber of Commerce?
If the Fed cuts mortgage rates increase.
Jay’s favorite past time is painting himself into corners.
Powell is doing the best he can (not a compliment). But he is probably doing a “good enough” job since almost everybody hates him now. Of course almost everybody will love him when he caves to Wall Street and Wall Street’s political puppets and lowers rates, like last year when he cut 50 basis points based on employment data that turned out to be wrong.