Civilian employment at the federal government accounts for less than 1.9% of total payrolls.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Because it has been the topic in the news for weeks, we’ll talk about civilian employment at the federal government first, though it is just a tiny part of overall employment.
In terms of timing: Today’s employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about jobs at “establishments” – employers of all kinds, including governments – is based on who is on the payroll in the week that includes the 12th. In February, this reference week was February 10-14. So these payrolls in roughly mid-February don’t include the departures in the second half of February. They’ll show up in later reports. Also, some of the layoffs are tangled up in uncertainty and court challenges, and it may be a while before the fog clears up.
In the prior month, in mid-January, civilian employment at the federal government, not seasonally adjusted, fell by 18,000. Then, in mid-February, employment fell by another 11,000, bringing the two-month total reduction to 29,000, not seasonally adjusted, which reduced the employment level to 2.99 million, where it had been in April 2024.
But there is normally a big drop in January, followed by a smaller increase in February. So seasonal adjustments are used to iron them out.
These seasonal adjustments converted the mid-January job loss (-18,000) to a gain of 5,000, indicating the drop was seasonal, and that the already announced DOGE layoffs hadn’t made it to the mid-January payrolls yet.
In February, seasonal adjustments reduced the job loss (-11,000) to a job loss of 10,000, and reduced seasonally adjusted employment to 3.01 million, indicating that the first batch of layoffs made it to the mid-February payrolls.
The spike in federal government employment (seasonally adjusted) reflects the hiring for the 10-year census. And there’s this dip in February:
Federal government employment as a percent of total payrolls has been historically low for years as a result of total payrolls growing much faster than government employment. But in 2023 through mid-2024, the growth rate of government employment was higher than the growth rate of overall employment, and the ratio rose and peaked in May 2024. Since then, the ratio has been declining. In February, it fell to 1.89%.
This relatively low ratio of federal government payrolls (3.0 million) to overall payrolls (159.2 million) indicates that the job cuts at the federal government won’t make a major dent in overall employment, unless government contractors – from SpaceX on down – also start shedding lots of people.
Beyond the federal government…
Total payrolls in mid-February rose by 151,000 from the prior month, to 159.2 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (blue in the chart below).
The three-month average, which includes the revisions and irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles, dipped to 200,000, which is in solid territory.
Note the consistent decline of the three-month average from May 2024 (200,000) to August 2024 (84,000), which had been a worrisome trend that lots of people were fretting about, and it triggered the Fed’s big rate cut in September. But by that time of the rate cut, the trend had already reversed.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.28% in February from January (+3.4% annualized), a deceleration from the hot increase in January of 5.2% annualized.
The three-month average rose by 3.6% annualized, a deceleration from the prior months (red line).
Year-over-year, average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% in February, and the increases, despite some ups and downs have been in the 4% range for over a year.
Unemployment rose by 203,000 to 7.05 million people who were actively looking for a job during the survey period, according to the BLS household survey today. Unemployment has been in this range since July.
The three-month average dipped by 23,000 and has been on a slight down-trend since July (red)
In terms of the laid-off government workers: They show up here if they looked for a job during the survey period. People who decided to retire after getting forced out and therefore weren’t looking for a job are not considered unemployed, but retired, and they don’t count here.
The headline unemployment rate (U-3), based on the survey of households, edged up to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January.
Over the past seven months, the unemployment rate has stabilized at the historically low range of 4.0% to 4.3%, with July having been the high point.
The unemployment rate = number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job divided by the labor force (number of working people plus the number of people who are actively looking for work).
The unemployment rate of 4.1% is historically low, and a sign of a solid labor market, and well below the Fed’s median projection in its Summary of Economic Projections at the December meeting which it lowered to 4.3% for the end of 2025:
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Fire ’em all, and we will have a lean machine federal goverment. Ayn Rand was right, you know.
…as long as we’re spitballing here, only as long as there are no more public bailouts or subsidies for ANY private business, and K Street and its denizens are permanently plowed beneath the earth. Congressional districts increased by setting a 60,000 population upper limit with concomitant reduction in salary/perks and increase in severe penalties for self-dealing. Use modern communications to move physical center of elected government around the nation periodically. Require all Federal candidates to pass the U.S. citizenship-knowledge test, as well as one of Constitutional knowledge at superior minimum grade levels before being qualified to run for office. But hey, who am I kidding? Randian utopias demonstrate no more understanding of the human character than Marxist or Gileadist ones, irrespective of any accuracy of their descriptions of societal issues and struggles…
may we all find a better day.
+1
I agree as long as government can’t arbitrarily shut down or debank businesses or industries
“Require all Federal candidates to pass the U.S. citizenship-knowledge test, as well as one of Constitutional knowledge at superior minimum grade levels before being qualified to run for office. ”
Wouldn’t hurt to require that they can show that they passed a high school science course, too.
Hell, passing a cognitive test would screen out many politicians
I have an interesting story confirmed by multiple Swamp sources that this breaking news will soon be released:
All 3 million Federal worker’s personnel data has been downloaded to a secret server run by Musk. No one knows where it is. An AI algorithm is being run on the data which will give a docier on every federal worker. Jobs targeted for elimination will be pulled out of this HR (Human resources) master database and letters of resignation will be drafted automatically and sent to all affected employees. This AI algorithm was used by Musk at Twitter to eliminate 70% of the workforce. Those who don’t accept the offer of a buyout and sign the resignation letter will be fired. A 19 year old high school dropout nicknamed “Big Balls ” is overseeing the program under the direction of Musk himself.
Ayn Rand was certifiable, and her ideas are predictably attractive to the young (who don’t know any better) and the historically ignorant — and woe unto you if you’ve ever encountered the cult known as “Objectivism.”
Utterly ridiculous …
So canning all the Veteran Affairs workers is not going to make a dent in the deficit or help much to balance the budget, but presumably inconveniencing veterans.
I think the VA is understaffed because it took them 2+ years to process my hearing loss (combat stuff) application and I was rejected anyway. Seeing they couldn’t find all my records (USAF 1964 – 1968), I had to send away for them (months long wait) and only 1/3 or the records came back. Good thing I still have my original DD 214 though. Atta Boy, VA!
Howdy Anthony A. Those records might be keep in that mine shaft. Give the miners a little more time?
Me mum was a doc at the VA,all the folks I met there really did seem to care about their folks they were caring for.
With that said,me mum thought it might be better to just give all vets a health card and let them choose who they wanted to care for them,she felt perhaps the VA hugely downsize excepting creating decent programs that vets might need and then farming it out.
The staff was great but the bean counters seemed pretty bad,know they need to keep track of monies but me mum and family/friends who are vets thought it went way too far.
As one of me t-shirts says”We owe illegals nothing”
“We owe our vets everything”
I do not agree with a lot of the politics of the wars but do feel we owe our vets,which includes trying to stamp out the as Sabbath calls em Warpigs.
Everyone would be better off if the VA were closed and all veterans given full unlimited private health care coverage. I have spent time in the VA system during medical training, there are many people who care, but it is astoundingly inefficient, the department where I worked was roughly 1/3 as productive as a comparable private hospital, and this was a high quality academic affiliated VA in the Bay Area, not some backwoods clinic.
For a more recent example, the VA hospital in Aurora CO was built about a decade ago, original budget about 300 million dollars, final cost, 2 billion, due to incompetent administrative people continually changing design plans during construction. And no one was fired, the lead administrator just retired with full pension when the heat was turned up. Unbelievable.
Happy – I guess my mileage has varied. When did you do your training (Ft.Miley via UCSF?) there? The timeliness and quality of care I have received at the SFVA far outstrips any I ever received from my private healthcare before having to drop it in the wake of job loss from the GFC of ’07-’08, finding relief offered by the VA under the Obama administration. I don’t disagree that VA care quality is highly-variable, depending on facility proximity to quality med schools willing to contract with it, and areas where quality staff prefer to live and spend their careers. Have the impression that wait times may also have more than a little to do with patient volumes expanding to meet public/presidential/Congressional pressures to improve VA care without realistic and concomitant staffing and financial support. That said, given the wait times my wife is currently encountering for followup treatment for her mild heart attack earlier this year by her civilian medical establishment, I’m not sure your suggestion would any better address those issues for vets without containing legislative codicils ensuring they
will go to the front of any line (let alone addressing that against the collapsing availability of general medical care in rural ‘Murica). In 2016, former VA Sec. Shulkin published a very good analysis of the different demands of VA healthcare to that of the civilian market, one that I would like to think Sec.Collins has read and considered. I have gone on too-long, but there is much more to this issue, and regrettably without simple, or cheap solutions.
may we all find a better day.
‘Everyone would be better off if the VA were closed and all veterans given full unlimited private health care coverage.’
Check prices of private unlimited, when they KNOW it’s unlimited…this would make current seem cheap.
Va hospital satisfaction among all patients is much higher than that of those in non-va hospitals. You can look it up. I wouldn’t trust anyone online agitating for cuts to veteran services. It’s too easy to spread manure online.
I don’t think they are under staffed.
They are completely incompetent.
I have dealt with government agencies few times and have first hand experience of their incompetence.
That’s not my experience with federal government employees. I found them to be competent and dedicated workers.
There is also an enormous amount of waste because the guiding principle has been forever: “No one has ever been promoted for saving the government money.” In other words, people get promoted for justifying bigger budgets and throwing money around. The incentives are wrong. There is no sense of efficiency. Effective is good enough, and the more it costs the better, it seems.
Since my wife worked under Treasury for the federal government, I’ll say that most DO care but in the end, they’re at the whim of the elected official.
The unions and culture also make it near-impossible to get rid of underperformers so they tend to be just passed off whenever possible.
The accumulation of policies from every previous error also increases the amount of work required to get anything done.
I have worked for and around government for about a decade. As Wolf says, the incentives are wrong. There is no reward for doing a good job in the bureaucracy. You get paid according to the pay schedule. Can a good manager introduce better processes and cut staff in half and actually increase output? Sure. Will he get a great bonus? Nope. Promotion? Nope. So why do it? But take a risk and have it fail, and you’re gone. Can’t let your betters look bad in the press or to the elected officials. But do you really want a well-functioning government? If government could produce healthcare as effectively as the private sector, why not just have the government do it? Why have all these middle-men taking profit?
@Wolf I’m happy that you have had good experience with Federal workers. The last time I had to deal with the IRS things did not go well. A good friend is married to (a Just about to retire) RN who has worked at the Palo Alto VA for decades and her stories of waste and disfunction will blow your mind. Since I am in the Apartment buaines I have seen for decades that “affordable” housing is just a scam to funnel money to the politically connected and it seems like every day we are seeing how it is not just “affordable” housing (that costs 2-3x more to build and 2-3x more to run that similar “market rate” apartments) but mst government projects are dezined to first make the politically connected richer than second do something with the little money left over as a cover so the cash flow won’t stop (The CA “bullet train” is like the CO $300 million dollar VA hosptial that actually cost $2 billion but with “billions” more going to the politically connected”
ApartmentInvestor
Read my entire comment, including the second paragraph (there were only two paragraphs, and you never got to #2). You completely missed it.
Me too re the ”original DD-214” AA,,, apparently, in fact, THE only piece of paper worth anything to VA!
OTOH, had to go to hospital after trauma couple years ago,,, and the VA Bay Pines hospital folx treated me SO well that I got over my 50 years of fears of horse pistols: actually drinkable coffee in the am, followed by delicious breakfast…
The percentage of the working population chart says it all Wolf. The propaganda machine of the Right has been saying over and over again that the federal government is too bloated. I would love to share that chart with them.
Kurtismayfield, what does the percentage of our workforce have to do with a bloated government.
Propaganda………yet to see.
I just can’t stop looking at the second graph. You’d think it was way higher the way Republicans are always crying about it. It’s even lower than the Bush era
Consider for a moment how much more efficient office based businesses have become in the last 30 years. So much more of the work can be done with software and not paper. I have no doubt that half the office based Federal workforce could be let go with zero consequences to customer service if done correctly. Everyone I know who works for the Federal government agrees. The problem is finding which half should be let go and doing it. This is long overdue.
And the real problem is paying for those system upgrades (what, MORE spending?) and the long time to develop those system and port over all the data. BTDT in the private sector….
The ADD critics would declare it a boondoggle, failure, and corrupt before even 1/3 progress is made.
Worked at a number of .gov facilities, you see much more hustle at most restaurants
Monk – these days, in our area, anyway, it’s the owners having to hustle a lot more of their traffic themselves because sufficient waitstaff help is not to be had…
may we all find a better day.
Happy, the graph being discussed is a percentage/proportion. Those efficiency gains you mention should effect Federal and non-Federal employees equally. The proportion is still historically low so that’s irrelevant.
A very strong argument can be made to return the federal workforce levels to at most 2019 levels.
The Defense/Intel Agency I worked for could do a better job with 15% to 20% of the employees. 20% of the budget was wasted on fraud. 30% of the employees worked on tasks they should not longer be doing or were being duplicated by other agencies, 30% were tasks that could and should have been automated long ago, 20% of the employees were completely unproductive. Add in that about 50% of the agency budget involved contracts that should be cancelled as the contractors were completely incompetent. About 15% of the government workers were highly dedicated and should be retained. The rest should be fired. Musk is 1000% correct.
Please provide data as to “all the Veteran Affairs workers” that were fired.
Aren’t you from Canada?
It won’t make a dent in the deficit, but you can bet your ass it’ll significantly reduce the quality and efficiency of veteran health care. It’s so sad. My gf receives care from the local VA and it’s far from great, this is the last thing they need. For all those commenting on their VA experiences, tyvm for your service.
Unfortunately a lot of Vets voted this regime in and I feel their pain.
Did you feel the pain of the union pipe fitters and steel workers who lost their jobs when pipeline projects were shut down by the previous administration? Most of them voted for Biden
I think the “tolerant” greenies told the fitters….learn how to code.
Not a good plan as *coding* is going the way of the Do Do Bird as AI will be doing it. But, AI won’t be doing plumbing or welding up a new pipeline.
Odd comparison. Guessing like 1000 jobs lost, vs what, a million or ten vets?
This is a strange comparison. IMO, we do owe our vets some gratitude for their services, especially if they have been negatively affected by their service such as an injury or disability.
Pipe fitters working for private companies that want to build pipelines to export our mineral wealth overseas, while leaving the local population to suffer with the resultant air/water pollution, cost of remediation etc aren’t owed anything special their service working for a private company.
I have a friend who used to work for SS, he worked from home 90% of the time. While collecting a check from the taxpayers, he also started and ran his own winery, a full time job in and of itself. This is the BS taxpayers are fed up with, as stats reveal only 20% of federal employees report to the office. So whine if you will about the poor government workers, but most taxpayers champion Trump and Musk reigning in the billions of dollars in waste and hacking the $hit out of the bloated and inefficient government agencies.
This is absolutely a problem. It’s always been a problem. I learned this in a short stint at an air force base as a contractor. Most of the govt employees there were dumber than bags of rocks. I’m convinced that they worked for the govt because they would never have made it in the private sector. That being said, you don’t fix the problem by firing everybody indiscriminately. You have to go department by department, improving processes, removing those that don’t contribute, etc.
You do have to have someone from the private sector come in to do the job. However, Elon vs Twitter have already proven that he is not the man for the job.
Despite firing 70 percent of original Twitter workforce by Musk Twitter is doing absolutely fine .
We need efficiency and competency in government workforce as well
I absolutely support DoGE Musk and Trump on this although they are going bit slow per my liking .
The kind of waste DoGe is finding in government is mind boggling but a lot of msm won’t report this .
BS:
‘Elon Musk’s X is worth nearly 80% less than when he bought it, Fidelity estimates. Elon Musk in Krakow on January 22. The social media platform formerly known as Twitter is worth almost 80% less than two years ago when Elon Musk bought it, according to estimates from investment giant Fidelity.Oct 2, 2024’
The savings via cuts don’t begin to cover loss in revenue.
Of course he grossly overpaid and the ‘boy wonder’ tried to wriggle out. Then he saw who Twitter had hired as counsel. So dumb deal goes ahead. Since then he’s made a VERY bad deal worse.
Now he’s going to do an encore for the USA!!
Nick Kelly
While at it, he’s also throwing Tesla under the bus.
Nick Kelly
I am not talking about the net worth of the Twitter.
I am talking about the technical viability of the platform with 70 percent less staff .
This has nothing to do with his political views or net worth of Twitter.
This has to do with if one can run Twitter efficiently with 70 percent less staff which is proven
No performance issue
No disruption in the service despite drastically cutting staff.
nick, does fidelity have any basis to know what it’s worth? it’s no longer public and doesn’t have to file anything.
i wouldn’t be surprised if they were using some nonsense goodwill figure to come to that 80% conclusion.
wolf, how is musk throwing tesla under the bus? he feels a calling to improve america. people can debate whether or not he’s improving it, but if leftists boycott because they’re upset that he’s trying to cut government waste, what can he do about that?
Seems to me he’s attacking the very departments that have open investigations into him and the other billionaires., like the Financial protections board and Labor Relations. He hit those first and hard.
@Franz,
“but if leftists boycott because they’re upset that he’s trying to cut government waste, what can he do about that?”
They’re not upset about cutting waste. They’re upset about his approach, methods, communication, a-holery, lies, exaggeration, and absolutely mind-boggling conflicts of interest (well, for him, it’s not conflict, it’s awesome!”). And then his dismantling of the very guardrails that keep sociopaths like him from grifting, swindling, and just plain committing financial tomfoolery (love that word).
gattopardo, that’s bs. they’re upset because he’s challenging the liberal order.
“I am talking about the technical viability of the platform with 70 percent less staff”
It’s apparently not viable since it’s hemorrhaging cash and users. Who knew that people would flee a platform overtaken by white supremacists and trolls? It turns out content moderation is part of technical viability. This is just the kind of thing that a neurodivergent guy like musk cannot grasp. He is physiologically incapable of reading a room. Coding can’t make up for that.
@Franz again,
Not b.s. Anecdotally, among even my most liberal friends (I live in coastal CA), none are concerned about that.
@Jon, “The kind of waste DoGe is finding in government is mind boggling but a lot of msm won’t report this”… Untrue, Jon. The “MSM” is reporting it (and the exaggerations DOGE is making, from a combination of sloppiness, errors, and probably political gain) like crazy. If you take the time to read up on it, you’ll be even less happy with the pace, because their real cuts are a fraction of the advertised total. Check it out.
(FTR, I am thrilled at the concept of wholesale spending cuts)
Not only has X’s user base plummeted, but it’s such an echo chamber that no one would even know if (that) the number of AI bots has skyrocketed. Algorithms that determine post visibility matter. Anyone interested in critical thought and two-sided discussion is long gone. It went from a “digital town square” to an echo chamber like Truth Social, presumably. It’s a dying platform and competitors like Threads and BlueSky have benefited greatly.
Oh, and if you briefly look up data on Twitter vs X outages, X outages have been much more frequent and have lasted longer. Very clear data and easy to learn about if you Google it.
Only a problem if he’s neglecting the gummint job.
Keep in mind that Einstein was a FTE at the patent office when he wrote a Nobel prize winning paper (and three others that are similarly unparalled).
I’ve been doing a random survey of people in the Washington DC area, regarding their opinions on the firing of federal workers. To my surprise, across the board from the cashier in my local grocery store “I couldn’t care less” to my lawn man ” It’s about time they got a real job and reported to work” there is almost a universal dislike of federal workers here in the Swamp. I can’t imagine what the opinions are in flyover country. I think the fact that after the covid-19 crisis ended the federal workers here refused to report to work, rubbed people here the wrong way. I agree. When I worked in the government, I worked 40 hours or more per week including unpaid overtime, as well as had to take work and training home on my own time on my own computer and Internet. I am now in the private sector and have to work twice or three times as hard for half the pay I received in the government. I am sick of hearing these whining dogs complaining about having to report to work in their offices. I say, do what Reagan did with the ATCs in 1981. Report to work in the office or get prepared to be fired.
With Tesla down 28 %, shouldn’t shareholders worry whose waste he’s worried about. History is loaded with examples of the early innovator being overtaken by new competition. We are seeing this at fastest speed ever.
Which is this guy’s night job?
And BTW: what is with that idiot cap.
His night job appears to be making babies.
“And BTW: what is with that idiot cap.”
Uh, it’s a visible ass-kiss to the boss. Paired with words like “strong leadership by…” and “…promised made, promises kept by….” makes for a convincing proof of loyalty.
Remember, he borrowed on his Tesla shares, as the SP falls he risks the loans being called. It’s in the recent 10K. What happens when majority shareholders are forced to sell?
I don’t think he would be forced to sell. The shares are collateral. I think he can just hand the crushed shares to the lenders and wash his hands off them (after having gotten their cash and keeping what he bought with it).
Not only is Wolf right, I think Musk has another layer of protection. He simply won’t comply. I don’t know if Musk has a history of “deadbeatery”. But his boss does, and with the courts and law all under his thumb, well, all bets could be off.
These shareholders elected the guy who bankrupted a casino and most other businesses he ran prior to being able to use his power to keep them afloat. No one is concerned about intelligence or competence.
Federal employee and veteran benefits payable in 2024- 15,033.4 (In billions of dollars) – 2023 -14,347.6
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements13.pdf
DM: ‘Greedy’ egg baron who jacked up prices to make BILLIONS
New research casts a scary light on the skyrocketing price of eggs, which have nearly doubled from a year ago and has hitherto been blamed on a virus that’s wiped out millions of hens.
A shocking new report is blaming the nationwide egg crisis not on bird flu, but on ‘greedy’ companies that upped their prices long before an outbreak.
Among them is a single egg producer from Mississippi, which has made billions from egg sales since 2023. According to the new report by Food & Water Watch, the company — Cal-Maine — jacked up its prices even before it was hit by the avian flu outbreak in December 2023. The company sold 7 percent more eggs in its 2022-23 financial year than in 2021-2022. But because it upped prices and pocketed an extra $1 off every dozen sold, its profits jumped sevenfold to $1.2 billion that year, the report says.
‘Cal-Maine fleeced $1 billion in additional profits from its customers — mainly retailers, who often pass along price spikes to families,’ says the report. ‘Cal-Maine’s shareholders especially benefited. The company’s stock is roughly three times as valuable today as it was at the start of the bird flu outbreak.’ Researchers call this ‘outrageous at a time when food costs are skyrocketing and more families than ever can’t put food on the table.’
Sounds like a good time for the city folk to revisit city zoning & HOA
restrictions on owning a few layers.
No egg shortages or high prices out in my little slice of flyover.
In my neck of the woods in Tampa there are no HOAs. You want a chicken? Buy a chicken. You want a peacock? Buy a peacock. You want a goat? Buy a goat. You want a wolf? Stick with Wolfstreet, you’ll get more out of that.
Dealing with the Fox’s are enough of a problem.
The Wolf den by the bay is far from this roost.
There are anti-monopoly laws for a reason — too bad the US pretty much stopped bothering to enforce them courtesy of Robert Bork et al. Now you’re all paying the price of what Isabella Weber calls “seller’s inflation.”
BOHICA and good luck, because you’re going to need it …
DM: Trump DOJ opens investigation into who’s to blame for soaring egg prices
The Justice Department has launched an investigation into soaring egg prices and are looking into whether large producers conspired to raise prices on everyday Americans.
DM: Trump’s Treasury chief’s shock admission about the economy … and why it might be worth it
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said that the American economy may slow during a ‘detox period’ as the Trump administration slashes public spending.
He also said, “ Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream. ”
He is so right. Who wants $300 90 inch tv’s.
WE DO !
Wait a minute!!
After years of people wailing about govt. debt
we are shocked that a slow down/recession might occur
if the obese client is put on a strict diet.
I live in rural fly over.
It has been amazing the transformation since covid.
School, City, State…all piled onto the gravy train.
Of course this revenue source would never end.
Now its all doom and gloom about having to now make “tough”
cuts…..or increase taxes to keep the sugar high.
“….shocked admission…” really???
People rarely talk about the underground economy, the pay-under-the table economy. I read it is important in the construction industry, among others, probably restaurant and hospitality too. As illegals are deported and fewer are coming into our country, I imagine they will have to be replaced by citizens, some of who might demand legitimate paperwork from their employers. Believe it or not, some citizens do not want to break the law. Also I imagine the government will crack down on employers who hire and pay illegally. If this happens, employment numbers should improve, since there will be more employed persons to be counted. For every new legal employee replacing an illegal one, one new employed person will be added (to the numerator), the same person being also added to the labor force participation number (the denominator). Over time, if the quantity is sufficient, the unemployment rate would drop.
I recall Wolf once said that the current numbers do not distinguish between the illegal and legal employment market, but I suspect most employers who are paying their workers under the table will not respond with much enthusiasm to a government survey, and, perish the thought, might even lie.
The household survey covers all workers, including under the table and legally in this country.
The establishment survey covers all employees on the payroll, regardless of legal status, and it doesn’t ask for names or legal status. Companies just report numbers of employees on the payroll, not names. But being a payroll survey, it doesn’t cover independent contractors, including day laborers, such as for construction work, etc., and farm workers.
Unemployment is very low. You can’t pull unemployed citizens out of thin air. Where will these legal citizens come from? Are they going to leave their current job for a lower paying construction job? If they do, how is that going to improve employment data?
In reality, the lower paying jobs will remain unfilled. Construction companies will have to pay more to hire competent workers and they will pass those costs on to homebuyers.
Not another horse opera? “You tell ‘em Dawnald Earp is comin’ on his pale vice-horse. Dawn’s comin’, and hEllon’s coming with him!”. I’ve seen better movies with a smaller budget. Where’s ma darn popcorn?
Do you think you are correctly counting or overlooking the Legal contract employees? Employees let go when government contracts were canceled leading to job loss by hundreds of American Citizens who were being paid by an employer who held a government contract.
In terms of the establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls), workers that work for government contractors are included in their company’s category such as “Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.”
In terms of the household survey data (unemployment, unemployment rate, etc.), everyone is included.
The problem isn’t government employees, it’s the growth in
government contractors. That’s
where the majority of the waste and
outright fraud lie.
I would also include the grant writing racket.
Following disclosures from DOGE is like watching the early shows of South Park.
Some of these grant proposals had to be done on a dare
at the end of happy hour.
I can only imagine their look when they were actually funded.
the problem is in both. plenty of useless government employees too
Sporkfed
correct
When I left over a decade ago we had contractors who worked on a Network security project that I was the project manager. The cost was 25 million, and the contractor, a beltway bandit, hired 30 contractors who then hired 30 more subcontractors. After 3 years, their only deliverable was folder on a PC that contain a dozen files. All of the information was completely worthless. I reported the fraud to the Inspector General’s office and the contract was cancelled. Then another contractor was hired and repeated the same result. They delivered nothing and were paid in full.
You are a fine librarian.
As Granville said: “Watch the Tape!”
Sad that this site has become another place where different viewpoints aren’t tolerated. I did at times find Wolf’s responses to be a bit harsh, but that’s fine, it’s his website.
Having two posts on the tariffs be deleted has sure changed my mind. I took the first one to be a glitch but when the second one appeared and then disappeared, is that accidental? I can’t think why either of the posts were objectionable – if they were I would love to know why. So sad that a free, respectful exchange of information isn’t allowed.
Of course I expect this post to be deleted.
your comment exceeded the bullshit limit. There is a bullshit limit here. There isn’t a bullshit limit on X. Go trolling on X.
I stopped caring when my posts are moderated to oblivion (frequently, but not as frequently as they could be, lol). It’s frustrating when your opinion doesn’t make the cut, but just as often I’m impressed and surprised when opposing viewpoints are left unscathed.
It’s Wolf’s site, he can draw that line, if you care don’t post or go make your own website.
You constantly comment on partisan politics, which causes your comments to get tangled up in trip wires that attempt to enforce commenting guidelines #3:
3. When commenting, we check our political views at the door. WOLF STREET is a business, finance, and economics site, not a political site. Readers from across the political spectrum are invited and should feel comfortable. It’s OK to mention politicians and policy issues. It’s not OK to descend into partisan bickering.
Here are the commenting guidelines:
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/27/updated-guidelines-for-commenting-on-wolf-street/
I understand and I’ve been working on that. It’s hard because politics and the economy are so intertwined. I keep a lot to myself, but when others chime in with partisan political falsehoods or talking points, I tend to speak up. And while it may be political in topic I stick with FACTS and cite sources to counter BS, which I’ve learned from the best… and facts aren’t partisan (at least they shouldn’t be 😂)
I assume there is some trickle down from federal job losses to state jobs but have no idea how to approach the problem. state government is the glue that holds a lot of red states together, and cities which depend on state and federal grant money.
Most of the state and local government jobs are education (all levels from kindergarten to universities) and healthcare.
Wolf, the universities are where the most waste is. Too many highly paid administrators funded by grants from the Federal Government. NIH allowing 55% of grants to to be used for administrative cost instead of actual research. I remember several years ago seeing Harvard receiving $666 million a year in federal grants all while their endowment was in the Billions.
You say “administrative costs,” but you mean “indirect costs.” In scientific research indirect costs include scientific equipment, lab infrastructure, utilities, computing/databases, maintenance, in addition to administrative costs (which often are considerable since it takes a lot of labor to jump through the hoops of Federal grant requirements). That said, I agree that a few universities with massive endowments could fund more of their own research.
Not many Federal Employees in the grand scheme, but each of their job losses have knock on effects. Selling homes, reduced spending, etc. The future layoff polls are getting worse, and of course Wall Street is none to happy with the on again, off again Trump tariff threats. I hope things get better soon, but I am not seeing it yet.
We don’t suffer from a shortage of government, period.
During the height of the pandemic, we were doing an appraisal right across the street from the entrance of a major federal office building on E Street in the heart of downtown Washington D.C. I was there 2 hours sitting in the car. Right in the middle of the work day I didn’t see a single person enter or leave the building in the 2 hours I was there. My conclusion was that no one was reporting to work in the office. I talked to a hot dog vendor who was running a stand about a block away. He confirmed what I saw with my own eyes. He said he could not even pay the rent to have his truck there, and was going out of business.
Swamp’s letter to Donald and Musk
I believe the government needs to downsize way more than 50%. Like 85% to 90% is more like what is needed. It would operate better with fewer employees. Here are my suggestions.
1. We should shoot for keeping about 15% of the current Federal workforce at the most. Merit and skills needed should determine who gets to stay. All federal workers should have termination letters issued, put on administrative leave and be given 3 months to apply for the restructured jobs in the downsized agencies which haven’t been eliminated. Those who are released should look to the private sector for future employment.
2. Whole Agencies need to be eliminated – their functions can be managed at the state level better. The Dept of Education is a prime example.
3. Agency functions need to be combined for efficiency. For example, the FBI needs to have all of it’s functions taken over by the Federal Marshall’s service, and the rest eliminated. Make the old FBI building a museum.
4. With the productivity gains driven by advances in technology over the last decade, the government can do the same amount of work, and do it better with 1/5th of the staffing.
5. Contracting out core functions has not worked and has not produced cost savings or better service to the taxpayers. The only functions that should be outsourced are things like janitorial services, and landscaping. All core function outsourced contracts should be de-funded and their functions moved in-house using career government employees who are dedicated to serving the country.
6. Work from home should be eliminated, or drastically reduced to one day per week at the most. Any job that can be 100% WFH can be outsourced to India or foreign country, given the speed of Internet broadband. 100% WFH is a fraud on the taxpayer. Any worker that doesn’t report to the office should be fired. All public service unions should be abolished.
7. All new Federal employees hired must have served in the armed forces for at least 3 years, unless they were unable to serve because of a severe disability.
I’ve got more suggestions and I could go on, but these are my observations based on my many years working in the Swamp on the inside.
Sincerely,
Swamp Creature
I love #7 Swamp Creature. Brilliant!
I worked in a combat support Defense Agency. During the IRAQ War in 2003 they put a bulletin board at the entrance to our facility for all employees to put the names of their dependents and love ones who were serving in IRAQ. After one month there was only 1 name on the bulletin board. Looks like the IRAQ war was like NAM, a rich mans war and a poor mans fight. What a disgrace!
…hm. With the Army’s current and significant post-recruitment retention shortfalls, even with multiple programs attempting to address general recruit health, obesity and illiteracy issues as basic training facilities are being expanded, one might wonder at a possible reactivation of the draft (the ‘AUS’ component in my handle) on the horizon, and if it would reprise the 2-year active service/4-year ‘inactive’ Reserve requirement. Spitballing, again, Swamp, would your #7 address this change should it happen?
may we all find a better day.
Yes it would. 2 to 3 years of universal military service should be manditory. All able body males should be required to register for the draft.
Swamp – for the record, all U.S. males between the ages of 18-25 years are still required to be registered with the Selective Service (presumably not shut down, yet. Are Mr.Musk’s merry crew fully registered?). Failure to comply punishable by a fine of up to $250k and five years’ imprisonment.
may we all find a better day.