New Vehicle sales rise but still below 1986. GM, Ford, Hyundai-Kia book huge EV-sales gains.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The biggest automakers have now reported vehicle sales for Q4 and the full year 2024, and we’re going to look at their annual sales back to 2013. Hyundai-Kia set a new record and moved into fourth place, behind GM, Toyota, and Ford. Stellantis spiraled down into a catastrophe, with Nissan not far behind. Tesla, which had leapt from record to record, hit a wall in 2024. And GM, Toyota, and Ford, though their sales rose, are way down from their highs in 2015 – Ford by 20%!
Total new-vehicle sales rose by about 2.3% in 2024 to about 15.8 million vehicles, using some estimates to fill in for the still missing smaller pieces. EV sales rose 10% to a record 1.3 million vehicles, despite Tesla’s decline. ICE vehicle sales ticked up less than 2%.
Overall vehicle sales are still below where they had first been in 1986, nearly four decades ago. The two best years were 2000 and 2016, with 17.4 million and 17.5 million vehicles sold. In 2024, sales were about 9% below 2000. Over the same period, the US population has increased by 20%! So this an ugly chart:
Prices are too high.
Automakers have forever gone upscale to ever fancier models, and raising prices on top of that, to where volume hit a ceiling and started to stagnate, interrupted by plunges and bankruptcies. So now they have huge profit margins but low sales volumes. But two of the bigger ones — Tesla and Hyundai-Kia — have made hay in this climate.
The average retail transaction price including all incentives and discounts in December was roughly unchanged from a year ago, at $46,200, according to JD Power estimates. During the pandemic, it had spiked by 36%, from $34,900 in December 2019 to an absurd $47,300 in December 2022. And those prices are a massive problem in terms of sales volume – they’re just too high.
The biggest automakers in the US.
General Motors, #1: Sales of all its brands in the US in 2024 rose 4.3% to 2.71 million vehicles. But this was down by 12% from its recent peak in 2015.
- EV sales: +50.8% to a record 114,400 vehicles, even though it killed its popular Bolt and Bolt EUV in 2023 (62,000 units sold in 2023). But GM came out with a slew of new models in 2023 and 2024.
- ICE vehicle sales: +2.9% to 2.59 million vehicles.
- EV share of GM’s total sales rose to 4.2%, from 2.9% a year earlier.
By comparison, across the industry, including Tesla and the other dedicated EV makers, the share of EVs has risen to 9% of industrywide new-vehicle sales.
Toyota, #2: Sales of Toyota and Lexus brands combined in the US rose 3.7% in 2023, to 2.33 million vehicles. This was down by 7% from its recent peak in 2015.
Toyota just started selling EVs. After having poohpoohed EVs for many years, it changed course two years ago, relegated its anti-EV CEO Akio Toyoda to being Chairman, and replaced him with a new CEO, Lexus boss Koji Sato, under whom Toyota has commenced a huge development program for EVs. So eventually. But it’s way behind.
Ford, #3: Sales by Ford and Lincoln brands combined rose 4.2% in 2023 to 2.08 million vehicles. From the recent peak in 2015, sales were down 20%!
- EV sales: +34.9% to 97,865 vehicles in 2024.
- ICE vehicle sales: +3.0% to 1.98 million vehicles.
- EV share of Ford’s total sales rose to 4.7%, from 3.6% a year earlier.
Hyundai-Kia, #4. Combined sales rose by 3.1% in 2024, to a record 1.63 million vehicles.
Hyundai is the parent company of Kia, with Hyundai holding a 33.9% stake in Kia, and Kia holding stakes in Hyundai subsidiaries, and they share vehicle platforms. For our purposes here, the duo as one automaker with different brands.
- EV sales: +53% to 101,131 vehicles, not including Hyundai’s Kona EV and Kia’s Niro EV which they don’t split out from their ICE sister models.
- ICE vehicle sales: +1%.
- EVs now account for 7% of their total sales.
Honda, #5: Sales rose by 8.8% in 2024 to 1.42 million vehicles, down by 13% from its 2017 peak. Stellantis’ collapse made room for Honda to move into the #5 slot for the first time.
Honda, like Toyota, dropped the ball on EVs, but is now belatedly trying to catch up.
Stellantis #6: This is just painful to watch. FCA US sales dropped another 15% in 2024, to 1.30 million vehicles. From the recent peak in 2015, sales have collapsed by 42%. The US brands of FCA have no EVs.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares was forced to resign “effective immediately” on Sunday, December 1, amid enormous frustration by US dealers with his leadership. Its shares [STLA] have collapsed by 57% since March 2024.
This is a catastrophic chart of an existential crisis:
Nissan #7: Sales of Nissan and Infiniti combined ticked up 2.3% in 2024 to 924,008 vehicles. From the recent peak in 2017, sales are down by 42%.
This is another existential crisis in the making, not far behind Stellantis.
Honda is now in discussions with Nissan over a merger, or rather a takeover of Nissan. But this is going to be a complicated deal, if it even takes place. Many of their models are competing directly with each other, and antitrust regulators should take a close look at that. But if that deal happens, based on 2024 sales, and if Honda doesn’t shut down some Nissan models, it would make that combination the #2 automaker in the US, ahead of Toyota. The last thing the US auto market needs is less competition. It needs lower prices, not higher prices.
So another very ugly chart:
Tesla doesn’t disclose US sales. It only discloses global sales. Tesla’s global sales in 2024 dipped by 1.1% from the record in the prior year. But there’s the registrations data in the US through Q3 (the Model Y was the #2 Model in the US), and there are estimates for the remainder of 2024. Cox Automotive estimated on a preliminary basis that Tesla’s US sales fell to 633,000 in 2024.
This dip in sales – even as EV sales at the legacy automakers have soared amid strong demand for EVs – is a sign that there are some serious issues at Tesla that are allowing other EV makers to eat its share in big gulps.
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There are more reasons for the Stellantis plunge. I had a 2017 Jeep Wrangler in early 2024. I had some issues and tried to make an appointment to get them fixed and it was 6+ weeks for an appointment. So I waited. Finally I had my appointment and they told me the stuff I knew was a problem was a problem, but they didn’t have the parts on hand to fix them. But that would be $200 just for having them look it over. I would need to order the parts and wait another 6+ weeks to get it fixed I guess. Plus more money. That’s when I swore them off forever.
This also happened about the same time the Ford Bronco came out with basically jeep wrangler equivalent charisma. I didn’t buy one of those but I’m done with them.
I have this whole theory about boxy jeep/trucks that appeals to the masculinity of US males that I won’t bore you with, but if you raise the price to the roof, and your service sucks, and now there is competition in that space, you are done.
They did this to themselves.
Going back to their days as chrysler they have been a disaster since the 80s. I remember Lee Iacocca claiming they had their quality issues under control. It was a lie. If you read publications like consumer reports you would have stayed away from their cars 50 years ago. It’s sad how mismanaged they are.
My family has a story regarding Chrysler in the Iacocca era. My grandfather’s company had sold them some custom material handling equipment used in their factories on the production line. In todays dollars, probably 2-3 million bucks, so a big chunk of change for the small family business. Most of that work was generally funded by a revolving line of credit. Labor and metal are expensive.
They strung out payment for many months to the point that my grandfather went in person to meet with whoever would listen up at headquarters. He said to the payables admin “You don’t understand…your JOB is to pay me”. The admin replied “No, you don’t understand. My job is actually to NOT pay you”.
Eventually payment was made after a long battle, but he swore to never sell them anything again, as the whole process turned what seemed like decent work into a loss-making endeavor.
I was told that story as a cautionary tale about dealing with uncreditworthy customers. My understanding is that Chrysler’s turnaround plan was largely based on screwing suppliers as hard as possible. Works in the short term, but burns bridges in the long run.
I worked at Chrysler FCA for 20 years as an engineer. The wanted us to be bullies in all of our efforts unless we were at our own assembly plants. A lot of us would get kicked out of assembly plants because it was bully meets bully. I made good money but became a jerk in the process.
I have a 14 year old Chrysler 300C, and it’s the best car I’ve ever owned (I’ve had Fords, Hondas, Nissans and an Oldsmobile) — I guess that makes me one of the lucky few where their customer base is concerned.
I had a 200 and never had a problem
Stellantis is even screwing with their one standout brand, RAM. I have owned pick-ups for many years now and look for versatility, performance and comfort in new trucks. Have owned Ram and Ford. Ram now fits twin-turbo inline-six engines. Ford offers modern twin OHC 5.0l V-8 (Coyote). Pick up truck users are predominately V-8 engine oriented. Very few want to mess with turbo’s and most understand their drawbacks. RAM will lose sales to Chevy and Ford, as will Toyota who have made the same error. RAM builds the best all-around truck today but their engine choices are a non-starter for many of us.
Actually, jeeps tend to appeal to young women. They are overrepresented as wrangler buyers. Even though the wranglers real purpose in life is off roading, and that’s what it’s designed for. But you’ll never stop people from buying what they want.
Macho men collecting rubber duckies?!?!?
Yep, it’s a great vehicle if you’re short.
“Yep, it’s a great vehicle if you’re short.”
Consensus rationale for entire move from traditional cars to SUVs (theory – Women like them since they can see more from higher up and feel safer).
Perhaps.
But I’ve often wondered if regulatory arbitrage among failing/flailing US automakers in early 90’s played a big role too.
GM/Ford were long losing to competent foreign *car* manufacturers in early 90’s…but still had advantage in CAFE fuel reg sheltered truck segment.
Low-and-behold, SUVs on truck frames emerge as a big thing in mid 90’s. Presumably *also* CAFE-favored over foreign car makers.
Hmm.
Reg arbitrage wouldn’t explain SUV popularity per se – but it would explain why GM/Ford would push very, very hard for SUVs to become a thing (CAFE bias in truck/truck-framed SUV mkts would allow US makers to long-delay costly improvements in *car* manufacturing).
I know that SUV crossovers (on car, not truck, frames) have long since become a thing, so probably CAFE advantage is gone (actually true?) but I do wonder about the early-day dynamics of the switch from cars to SUVs.
cas127
This is so wrong. Automakers don’t sell what they want to sell. They sell what Americans want to buy. This is the most important fundamental principle about the car business.
Automakers go bankrupt if they try to sell what Americans don’t want to buy.
They have made small economical cars in the past, but they didn’t sell very well because Americans like and buy big vehicles, and so automakers killed their small and mid-size cars. For example, Ford killed the Focus (compact car) along with the Fusion (midsize car) in 2020 because they didn’t sell very well. That’s how it goes. Despite your conspiracy theory, the car business is demand-based. You go out of business if you try to sell something people don’t want to buy.
If this were strictly true, then why do companies pay for advertising?
I think you’re missing the point that demand can be created – it’s not all strictly organic.
Advertising cannot create demand for something people don’t want. We tried, believe me. Everyone tried. You can buy a nice big used car for the price of a bare-bones small new car. That’s the problem. Americans aren’t stupid.
“Americans aren’t stupid.”
How do you explain all the Chrysler and Jeep products that are still selling?
🤣yep!
Wolf… “Americans aren’t stupid”.
Sorry wolf, you lost some points on that comment. I’d says they are stupid as rocks.
Yes! My oldest daughter’s first vehicle in high school was a Jeep Wrangler she loved.
Young Barbie’s Dream House evolves into Middle-Aged Barb’s Breakdown Debt Prison.
Sorry, but that’s just bad parenting.
Yep, Jeeps are for chicks.
I bought a Chrysler Pacifica in December. Needed a tax write off and my old work minivan was on borrowed time. Some interesting things to note:
*The Pacifica is Chrysler’s only vehicle for sale. This is mind blowing. Chrysler was the original company. To hollow out the namesake is horrendous and qualifies as corporate malfeasance by Stellantis. How does an established manufacturer only sell one model???
* With rebates and discount, I got $10k off the $52k MSRP. The trim & options I purchased, a Limited, was priced at around $46k in 2019. It was previously the top-of the line trim, but they introduced a pricier version more recently – in line with hedonic improvements that Wolf discussed here.
*The amount of sensors, gizmos and gadgets in this thing is insane. I guess this is what people want, but coming from vehicles that are pre-pandemic (I have a 2011 GMC 3/4 ton work truck base model, an older 2015 VW wagon and the wife has a 2019 Kia). None of these mid-tier vehicles have anywhere near the gadgetry and tech that the Pacifica has. There were no Pacificas available that didn’t have all kinds of gizmos.
*I joined a few groups/forums for post ’17 Pacificas. They are filled with complaints about broken sensors, check engine codes and mechanical issues – on new vehicles that are mass produced by an established manufacturer. I used to be of the mindset that you run vehicles for 10+ years and maintain them. I can’t imagine keeping this thing for more than 5 years at this point because I, even as someone in a mechanical trade that works on his own cars, want nothing to do with all the expensive technology that can go wrong on this thing.
*I’m not impressed with where new vehicles are at. There should be room for basic no-frills vehicles – why American manufacturers are ignoring this market is baffling.
The comment about people wanting basic, no frills cars: i wonder if the ultimate solution for that group will be robo taxis, autos on demand. Similar to housing, some groups will own and others will just rent.
Sooner or later, one traditional manufacturer (US or overseas) under near-terminal financial duress is going to re-discover the value/virtues of simplified mass production and produce a high-volume meat-and-potatoes vehicle for under $20k.
Or…Chinese or Indian manufacturers will simply continue to do so and try to get them into the US.
The only question is how long tariffs (long needed but now too late) might block the Chinese/Indian sub $20k import cars (which, if remotely reliable, would annihilate domestic production of $45k SUVs – even with renewed ZIRP jiggery-pokery)
LOL. Americans HATE small cars. People here in the comments say that they want a bare-bones small car, but that’s all BS. Americans HATE small cars. Back in the day, we used to sell the Ford Festiva (Korean made) for $4,999, and we’d lose money on them, and we might sell 1 a month, because people walked over to the used car lot and look at what they could buy for $4,999 at the time, and it was a much bigger car with all the bells and whistles, and that’s what they bought. Or they saw that they could buy a new truck for $11,000 with nothing down, and they bought a new truck. And we made money.
The Chinese vehicles that will appeal to Americans are those that are the size of the vehicles here, and have all the bells and whistles and safety features that our vehicles have. And then they won’t be so cheap anymore.
“No frills” cars are not really preferred by the customers, here’s the demand by vehicle type:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-demand-by-vehicle-type/
Still, some demand for compact/small cars, but not alot
I rented a Kia K4 in Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago and had a blast driving through some of the hilly/mountain areas in and around LA. I have a mid size suv which I need for work, once I’m done I’ll be buying a small car, they are way more fun to drive than all these ridiculous behemoths everyone seems to like.
Does an M2 count as a small car, because I’d like one of those. Not cheap, but small.
Frankly, I’m not sure we (as a country) actually want* affordable cars. Traffic is already horrendous. It sucks to be poor, but if everyone can afford to drive, we’re all a bit more miserable.
Just a thought, having been to very densely populated places, both rich and poor.
I still want small cars (I drive a Ford Fiesta with a manual transmission), but I’m fully aware I’m the tiny minority. And even I don’t actually want a no-frills car. My problem there is car options seem set up like cable TV packages, buy 300 channels so you can get the 30 you actually want. My ideal car is likely not very profitable for automakers even if US carbuyers wanted it, which they don’t.
Anyway, I don’t blame others for wanting bigger cars, despite them making the road more dangerous for everyone in the name of making it safer for themselves. That’s how externalities work.
Dave: “the upgrade to option package #2 includes a tinted windows, a paint protection package, Better sound system with 19 speakers, programmable power liftgate, and a rear seat tissue dispenser, all for an extra $5,998.00″….that’s why.
exactly. one thing i will say though is that once you get used to the new safety features, you can’t do without them.
“all for an extra $5,998.00”
But just $75 per month for 72 months under our ZIRP reality-distortion payment plan.
I feel ya, because I think like you. But the manufacturers make what sells. I used to design manual transmissions and it was a dying concept here in the US, and all but dead now. It was a hard area to work in, as I knew the skillset would be meaningless down the road. If there is a large market for something, they will respond (look at EVs). But typically when they don’t, it’s because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze to them. Most people want technology in their vehicles nowadays.
They’ll have to pry my beloved 2006 Subaru Forester 5-speed manual vehicle from my cold, dead hands. 19 years and 173K miles young. I love this car!!
Haha same with my 1995 K2500 pre emissions diesel ;) the rust will get it before anyone else does
I don’t want heated seats and steering wheel. I don’t want motorized side doors or motorized hatch. I don’t want parking assistance, I don’t want sensors all around the vehicle, I don’t want a sunroof. I don’t want Lane assistance. I don’t need illuminated door handles. Don’t need carplay or tech like that beyond Bluetooth. All I needed was the towing package, and in order to get that I had to have all that other crap I didn’t want. All I keep thinking about is stuff that’s going to break that I don’t want to pay for or replace.
This thing is brand new and there’s things that already don’t work. You’re supposed to kick your feet under the doors or hatch to open it and that works like 25% of the time. Pulling the text messages from my phone via Bluetooth doesn’t work either it keeps telling me I have new messages when I don’t.
Granted I’m guess I’m not the ideal customer. I’m cheap. If this wasn’t a business vehicle I would not be buying a new vehicle. I’ve been getting by in a 1992 Ford minivan. My heavily abused work truck is going on 15 years old. I have a daily driver if VW TDI wagon base model with a manual transmission that I’d much rather drive when I’m not loaded up with people or materials.
I knew I needed to buy a new vehicle this year and I waited until the last week of December to do it. Between money off and the tax deduction its a $28,000 vehicle for me. I’ve owned probably three or four dozen vehicles in my life. This is the fourth new one. Not impressed with the quality of the build the pricing and where the new vehicle market is going.
Should have bought a Sienna awd for peace of mind
No stow and go. That’s indispensable to this contractor. In my old Ford minivan I have to take out the seats to get a clear cargo floor. Pacifica is the only option for a combined family hauler contractor van.
At least in past years…
AWD didn’t engage at <20mph, and it had no tow hooks, so you risked breaking something getting it pulled out of a snowbank.
Terrible car for a winter environment – why would you want AWD that won't get you out of snow when you're stopped???
Unbelievably dumb design decisions unbecoming of Toyota – which is otherwise a smart company.
I’ve owned 4wd trucks and a 4wd wagon. Never AWD. Work on my own vehicles. AWD systems are overly complicated for what they’re trying to do – use a computerized system to control an overdesigned mechanical system to give you some additional traction on two more tires. All this to avoid teaching people how part-time 4WD systems work. And especially not AWD when winter tires exist. AWD problems in modern vehicles are troubleshooting nightmares. I will continue to avoid at all costs. One more expensive system to brick the vehicle at some later point.
We manufacture products for commercial trucking. In our product line, we offer what is basically “good, better, best” to try to satisfy the various price/value appetites of different buyers, climates, vehicle use cases, etc.
The “no frills” product barely moves, and is likely on the chopping block soon because it’s hard to manufacture competitively at low volume. It mainly exists now to provide a reference price point for the higher end stuff. They’re priced to break even.
The middle and top end products combined carry 95% of the sales volume, with middle tier being the largest.
I think the story is similar in autos. There is a market there for very cost-conscious buyers, but they are a small minority of buyers.
Most people just want a reasonable product at a reasonable price without having to think about it too hard. Emphasis on the last part of that sentence.
Cost-conscious buyers will buy used instead.
why someone would pay 56k for a mini van baffles me.
What does that even mean you needed a tax write off? You spend a dollar to get a quarter. That’s the dumbest statement I’ve ever heard
I know how taxes work. I’m replacing a 32 year old vehicle. I’m buying a new one because I can. I’m getting a big tax write off on top of this – $15,000. If I waited until 2025 to make the purchase, it would have nowhere near the impact on the tax bill due to capital gains made in 2024. You must be a hoot at parties.
Your credibility in the auto scene ended in your first sentence.
“I bought a Chrysler Pacifica “.
Are you aware of any small vans in the US with an easy option for clear floor space that can also haul families? I’m eagerly awaiting your list of vehicles that meet this description.
Fair comment and complaint. I have been in the car sales industry for almost 2 decades… The majority of people absolutely DO want all the frills.. but let’s think for a moment about a bare bones/washed down vehicle. The Ford Maverick is a great example. It’s a great vehicle and nearly all of its owners have great things to say about it. But look at it from a company perspective. You’ll hardly find any of them Ford dealer lots. That’s because the dealers don’t want to order any of them. They have to pay for them to sit on the lot, and there is less than $800 between invoice and MSRP. Likewise, Ford doesn’t mind not building them, because Ford does not make much money on a budget model either. They would rather build f-150s and rangers and take higher profits.
Every sensor, gadget, button, and knob that’s on a vehicle is just another couple hundred bucks that they can jack the price up on, whereas that couple hundred bucks really only costs the manufacturer 10 – 20 – $30.
.. My point is that this lack of affordable base model vehicles is a result of corporate greed. They want to build the flashiest\fanciest vehicles that their engineers can dream up.
Dodge is a great example. They cut the Journey off in 2019. The journey could still be built today and offered for $30,000 or less on a sticker price. And they could still put a good deal of equipment in the journey. It is obviously an aged platform so there’s only so much you could do, but there are many people that would be satisfied with a brand new 2025 Dodge journey on the same platform. But on the flip side, the Dodge Durango is just as aged of a platform. Dodge has continued to refresh and refresh Durango. And ever since its latest refresh, there has only been more and more content added to the vehicle…. I believe the 2024 Durango RT premium can have a sticker price of over $60,000!!
The Durango is a great vehicle. However, $60K for a vehicle that hasn’t had a redesign in 15 years is ABSURD.
The Maverick is a compact truck, but it’s NOT “bare-bones.” It’s got all the stuff that people here complain about. Same with the Toyota Corolla and other compacts.
I get all the arguments about why we get what we get. But then I go to Europe and see what they get. And read about what gets sold in the rest of the world. Is it really all just American corporate and consumer mentality? Manufacturers the world round are selling more basic vehicles and apparently making profits. Why is this such a problem in the US only?
It would take collective action that Americans would fight tooth and nail to defeat to change the auto market to become like Europe. Not happening. That or $8 gas. Also not likely, given how good we’ve gotten at getting oil out of the ground.
Wolf, you would be very correct. I bought my sister a new 2024 Corolla (freaking base model) and it has all the gizmos, safety systems and technology. I just wanted to get her something reliable, but I was stunned by all the amenities for a new 24k car.
“They did this to themselves.”
Chrysler was notoriously crappy for decades before the Italians (!!!) had to come in and save them via Stellantis.
Big surprise – Chrysler crap plus Italian crap = more crap.
As you allude to, Jeep-driven fantasy role-playing kept the whole crap-show marginally rolling on…but apparently that is now done too.
I got ris of my 1994 Jeep Grand Cherokee at 120K miles as it needed a new differential (for the 2nd time) and needed heater work. I pity the poor fool who got it used.
I bought a new Dodge Viper ACR in 2001, I was 23 YO petroleum engineer. In 2005 the shop called me to tell me a screw came out with the engine oil while doing an oil change. I called the local dealership, and they were helpful but their books did not include enough details about screws to help, so they gave me the Dodge “technical support” phone number which I called, where I spoke with a woman who seems to have had little more than a vague notion what an engine was. She told me to drive it down to the local Dodge dealer and have them find where it came from and reinstall it. I reiterated that it came out with the oil and asked again if I could speak with an engineer who is familiar with the parts used in the engine. It was BTW a pan head Phillips screw and I correctly assumed that not a lot of non torque specific fasteners would reside within a 450 HP engine. I also reiterated that I had already spoke to the local dealers service team and they recommended I call this number and speak with an engineer. She simply rebutted that she couldn’t help. I ended up writing their CEO at the time providing the above story and making two more points. 1) I am 27 and am financially able to afford your most expensive model, I can’t tell you how many vehicles I will own over the remaining years of my life, but I can tell you exactly how many of them will be Dodge. 2) This car gets a lot of attention, people come up saying things like cool car, and I reply that it is but their service is terrible, I’ll never own another Dodge.
My parents bought a 2017 Dodge Journey R/T. It seats 7 my family of 5 travels with them on long vacation drives in this car. It has 1 USB and three cigarette lighter ports. I call it the Marlboro edition. I don’t know anyone who smokes, but I do know a few who have cell phones and iPads. The window switches are located on the arm rest where one naturally places their elbow. There is an AC adapter in the back seat. The kids have like 5 electronic devices that rely on it (taking turns charging various electronics). Every time the vehicle is turned off and restarted one need to go back into the settings to turn it back on (as opposed to it simply turning on and off with the ignition). This typically isn’t noticed until hours later when all electronic devices are now nearing dead. It gets 21 MPG. Every time a window is randomly rolled down at highway speeds due to someone’s elbow hitting the window switch or the kids start arguing because their electric devices are dead I subtly remind my parents about the Honda pilot that also seats 7 but gets 30 MPG and wasn’t designed by Thurston Heinz (a bit of an inside joke – Thurston is the CEO that ran BlackBerry into the ground by never quite figuring out that people might want to use their smart phone screen to brows the web).
I love that everyone is piling on Stellantis. Their demise can’t come soon enough.
Well, then they should all go out of business. Maybe you should own the GMs, Fords, Toyotas, Acuras, my family and friends have owned. Talk about problems. I guess you would be thrilled with an Eco-boost Ford that managed to crap out two rear ends, a transmission, transfer case, a turbo, along with a dozen other problems by 88,000 miles. How about my boss and his Chevy van that launched a transmission at 16,000 miles, or the Chevy van he replaced the first one with and its engine failure at 75,000 miles. He just replaced the van because the replacement engine failed. Why don’t you buy an Acura. My brother owned three TLs and two RLs. All but one spent dozens of weekends at the dealership getting crap fixed. One of the Acuras left him stranded on the side of the road when it only had 1,4000 miles on it. Oh he bragged about those things until he went to work for the Acura dealership and found out they are junk. He never bought another Acura. How about my neighbors Toyota Tacoma and its rusting frame issues and we live in the Southwest, or my current neighbor and the rust on his Tacomas frame. I could write a book about how bad those cars are.
I have owned nothing but Dodge and Plymouth automobiles since 1977. I worked in a shop from 1975-1990. I wouldn’t trade any of my Mopars for any other manufacturer period. I have a ’71 Challenger, ’09 Challenger RT, and a ’15 Cherokee Trailhawk. Best damn vehicles on the planet. I have 140,000 miles on my Jeep and she is good for another 140,000. In 10 years, I have paid out 3,000 dollars for repairs other than scheduled maintenance. Over half of that was due to mice chewing up stuff. Beats the hell out of 40,000+dollars my co-worker put into his Eco-boost with 88,000 miles. If Chrysler goes out of business, I’ll support Mazda, Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, or a couple more. GM, Toyota, Honda, Tesla, can kiss my backside.
jay,
You have strange friends and neighbors, I must say, given their litany of car problems. My friends’ and neighbors’ vehicles — none of them Stellantis brands — and our own vehicles over the years (of brands you mentioned) have been essentially problem-free. Just maintenance (oil change, tires, etc.).
Come work in automotive. You build a million vehicles, you’re gonna get variation. Your sample size is nothing in the grand scheme of things, and everyone has their story of what vehicle they had that’s so great, or failed early, etc. etc. in the end, quality and durability tell the tale, and people catch on, and they buy those brands. Look at Toyota. So be frustrated, just know experiences will vary.
I have a 2018 Renegade (Trailblazer). 9 speed w/ 4wl. I love it. Great in city, great in snow and ice, great off dirt roads. I don’t take it deep off road but it works if I need to. Reliable. I know the transmission well and it’s so reliable that I rent Jeeps (mostly Wrangler 4 doors and Grand Cherokees) when traveling. I will purchase a second Jeep (used 2020 or newer) sometime this year (a Rubicon). So it’s not all doom and gloom for them. Broncos are twice as much and don’t pull the big weight when you want it. They are pretty though. Kind of like a Rolex for the show and go crowd.
What was once an off road vehicle is now a over-priced pavement princess.
A friend at work has Jeep that has had endless problems for a decade. Her service stories are worse than airline nightmares. Buying a Chrysler product is simply foolish.
Amen.
It’s not like this is a recent issue either. It’s been going on for decades. Boggles my mind how people keep buying them.
Yes. Chrysler certainly spent years digging their own grave. The last US car we bought was our 1971 Chrysler Imperial LeBaron which was Chrysler’s top of the line vehicle. Its front brake proportioning valve failed at 750 miles as we were headed over the bridge for an evening in Long Beach, CA. The dealer couldn’t fix the problem and sent the car out to their Santa Fe Vehicle Prep Southern California facility. My father was an old friend of Chrysler’s then Vice-Chairman Buck McCurry and we had all horsepower trying to get the problem fixed. The rear window surround was also coming undone. I asked the head of the facility why Chrysler had so many problems on their top of the line car, and his response was to me was ‘if you expected the kind of quality you want in a car, you should have bought a Mercedes-Benz. Unsurprisingly, that is exactly what we did on our next car purchase.
This is the result of huge trillion dollar deficit spending of our government and the resulting inflation and continued price increases.
This is also happening in the housing market.
Get ready because it is going to get worse!
Big boxy vehicles are nothing more than fuel for toxic masculinity? LOL
People can’t enjoy anything nowadays… And with their own money no less, without someone slapping a label on them.
First thought, what does the data from 2000-2012 look like?
Second thought, if home prices and car prices are too high, what happens next?
You can see in the first chart what it looked like in general.
In terms of by automaker: Some years ago when I started this, I went through the 10-k SEC filings and press releases of each of these automakers for each year to dig out the vehicle sales back to 2013. That was a lot of work. So if you want to know what it looks like by automakers going back to 2000, by all means, dig it out yourself. You might as well dig out the data going back to 1950. Because you know, someone is going to ask, “what does the data from 1950-2000 look like?” 🤣
Look at the fleet age.
Good for the mom and pop auto shops.
I have been seeing quite a few new temp plates the last few weeks. Perhaps stock market wealth effect still in place
We sold a rental property at still-inflated prices in 2024. Purchased a work minivan in December. If we didn’t buy this vehicle in 2024, would have paid more than $15k in extra taxes on the capital gain. Had prices not still been so high, we would not have sold the rental property, and would not have bought this vehicle. I’m a tradesmen and work on my own vehicles and am haven’t purchased new since 2009. Inflated asset prices have downstream effects
You must not be in Arizona, where rocking the temp plate is a way of life. And let’s just say that more than a few of those temps didn’t come from ADOT.
@Bet: You may be right – end of tax year capital gains sales so extra $ floating around.
“What goes up must come down
Spinning Wheel got to go ’round
Talkin’ ’bout your troubles
It’s a cryin’ sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the Spinning Wheel spin
You got no money, you got no home
Spinning Wheel all alone
Talkin’ ’bout your troubles and you
You never learn
Ride a painted pony
Let the Spinning Wheel turn
Did you find your directing sign
On the straight and narrow highway
Would you mind a reflecting sign?
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colors that are real
Someone is waiting just for you
Spinning Wheel spinning true
Drop all you troubles by the river side”
Blood Sweat & Tears
Stellantis inherited a dysfunctional Fiat-Chrysler – both in Europe and North America – to begin with. It was willing to merge with anyone for a reason.
The Marchionne-era was already about cutting development and pouring money into brands that the Italian management favored (which worked in the case of the Jeep revival, not so much with Alfa Romeo). Tavares was on the right track about reforming operations, but he had issues understanding the US mindset where brand image is important. In theory the whole Stellantis global parts bin & all the platforms are open for the NA department to design new cars with, but not much was realized in the past besides the Dodge Hornet.
At the same time he was under heavy fire from the Italian government that is preaching about reindustrialization and still dreams about the country as a motorland that should be manufacturing cars for the world.
South America was pretty much the only part of the package where things were working alright for the company.
At the same time hats off for Mary Barra – she turned a similar pile of junk into a #1.
Not sure how Nissan will do in the following years – unlike Stellantis they are doing bad depsite being full of brand-new models that cover pretty much every market segment.
If I were for Honda I’d have the books of Nissan triple-checked with the best accountants. You never know what kind of skeleton is hiding in the closet when it comes to Japan. Also, they have pretty bad reputation to ally with after the Carlos Ghosn-incident, I’m not sure the promise of expansion is worth it.
Don’t understand what Honda would get out of the “merger”. Must be pressure from government? Promise of some help from government?
The Honda-Nissan “merger” is being forced by the Japanese government. They know Nissan is not a viable company, but they cannot let such a large traditional Japanese company fail or fall into foreign hands (see what happen to Ghosn when he tried). Should the deal go south, they will just bail them out (see JAL)
And China not running out of steam. Will sell more EV alone than ICE in 2025, a full decade ahead of their 2035 goal. Tesla still doing okay in China and slightly ahead of BYD but not clear how long that will last with the local market there now preferring local. Great to see.
Where do you get the idea that Tesla is ahead in BYD in China? No way that’s true.
Any wagers on how long Americans will tolerate the rest of the world buying $20k-$30k Chinese EVs, while being stuck with outdated overpriced legacy offerings? 🤔🙄
Yeah but what are we gonna do. Whine to our politicians? I wonder if I whine for our capital gains tax policy to change, if they would also fix that too. Doubt it haha
4 years/2 years over/under..
Used BYDs will start coming in through north and South borders, as it is not as easy to tarrif used car sales. That’s how I think we’ll start getting more foreign evs.
What do those Chinese cars look like after NTSB safety testing I wonder?
Meant slightly ahead in total sales not just in China. Expect that to not last long.
With the amount of coal they consume,
They will not be running out of steam anytime soon. Meanwhile the rest are chasing the wind and taxing cow farts.
Tom,
They do not have access to plentiful natural gas however China has demonstrated full investment in alternative sources and has demonstrated ability to reach goals. Renewables, along with battery power, have come down and are competitive and reliable and that will only increase. They are essentially the world manufacture so the energy needs are high
Don’t forget about China’s new fleet of CNG-powered long haul trucks.
Cow farts (methane) are the future.
Yes. Which is why German and California electricity is the cheapest. Oh. It’s not.
Don’t forget they are also standing in line waiting for the west to handout billions…trillions?…. to “developing” countries for “clean energy” devlopement.
No argument from me Glen.
India and China will continue to utilize coal as they expand other sources.
I just chuckle at the West shutting down their base load sources..to save the planet. And demanding no tariffs from Biden…or Trump.
David,
Generalizing cost of power simply based on what it costs to consumer misses that costs are not often associated with fuel inputs and other factors. Even in California it varies significantly per provider. For example, Sacramento is about 16 cents a kilowatt hour, 55% cheaper than state average but basically the same as national average. I have never done a deep dive into why but many Californians pay extremely high costs that most would be considered malfeasance by companies like PG&E. But renewables are not a factor as study after study shows price competitive per electricity generated. That is without factoring the continued cost of over utilization of fossil fuels.
PG&E is a gangster organization. It should have been dismembered in bankruptcy and sold off in pieces to local rate payers (co-ops) or municipalities. And the FBI should investigate the PUC for corruption.
No Chinese brands in US yet? In Europe they start to show up. Not sure how sales have been after the new tariffs though.
Volvo and Polestar are Geely brands, and they’re here. But not the mass-market brands that have started to flood Europe, BYD, etc.
We’re force fed Chinese products and packaging that we don’t want, but the moment there’s a cheap Chinese car that would make sense for the masses, allowing a budget friendly transportation option – NOPE, must f**k over the people to benefit greedy US auto manufacturers.
Ain’t that the truth! Any product you look to buy, 90% chance it’s made in China. But a much cheaper vehicle, all of a sudden manufacturing jobs matter.
Do you want China to also kill the US auto manufacturing industry with subsidized vehicles, just like they killed other industries in the US? yes or no?
In know Depth Charge’s answer already: “Yes.” Depth Charge wants the whole system to collapse and implode and burn to the ground. So we know that.
China declared officially years ago that auto manufacturing was a key technology that it would subsidize and promote, and it forced foreign automakers to surrender their IP to Chinese partners, and teach them how to design and manufacture vehicles. And it protected its own market with massive tariffs. And then it redoubled these efforts with EV and battery manufacturing. And now China is the largest auto manufacturer by far in the world, and it’s inundating foreign markets with subsidized vehicles, trying to kill foreign producers. It has done similar things in other industries. It’s China’s long-term MO. It’s time to step on the brakes here.
I go out of my way to buy tools made anywhere else other than China and have been doing so for years…15 years, anyway. Many NA brands have moved to Taiwan, S Korea, and of course, Mexico. But, they are all democracies. Can’t afford Festool, well I could, but I need work tools, not bragging rights. I think it is important to support friendly/domestic industry that pays a livable wage to their employees.
“DeWalt announced its Made in the USA Initiative in 2013. The company considers where the demand for a tool is the highest when deciding which products to be made in a certain country.”
The much vaunted Milwaukee cordless stuff made in China.
Anyway, once you get a bunch of cordless stuff you resupply around your batteries, anyway.
I would never buy a Chinese vehicle. Went from a 2002 GMC Sierra (work truck) to a Nissan Frontier….2 years ago. The GMC was a comfortable tank compared to the Nissan. I did specify the most basic vehicle possible but still had to spend a lot of time with the manual to learn the electronics. For example, have to disable the rear braking feature to back a boat trailer and that requires scrolling through menus….only takes a few seconds but it took some practice. But the truck is fantastic for what it is. I welded up a rack to haul plywood and steel as the box is smaller than plywood, but all new truck boxes are this way. I love the fuel efficiency tracking and other digital calculations done automatically….and currently averaging 10.5 litres/100 km. Yes, I would buy another one provided the quality stays the same.
“In know Depth Charge’s answer already: “Yes.” Depth Charge wants the whole system to collapse and implode and burn to the ground. So we know that.”
Haha, you’re funny, Wolf. That’s one of the reasons why I love ya’.
I’m not interested in buying a Chinese car, but tbe US supports its auto industry also. EV subsidies based on domestic content, federal government only buying US brands, multiple bailouts, etc. Hardly the innocent victims of global trade.
I give it about 2 years before Americans are loudly clamoring for the $25k Chinese EVs the rest of the world gets to enjoy.
Maybe GM will bring the redesigned Bolt back then? (It’s supposed to come this year)
I bought the cheapest transportation available after my Toyota was totaled a year ago. A bare bones Mitzibushi Mirage is just that. It’s the equivalent to a 1955 Volkswagen. I use it for local city travel. Easy to park, easy to shop for groceries, easy to put golf clubs in, good visibility, good gas mileage etc. The US car manufactures don’t make these vehicles anymore. So I say f$ck the US Auto makers. I don;t live my life trying to fatten their profits and benefit their stockholders.
Highly doubt that.
Depth Charge:
You are right. In the late 50s-60s, millions of us bought the very cheapest transportation possible. The VW Beetle. No frills, not particularly safe, but it did get us from A to B which was needed.
I say bring on the BYDs of the world!
My guess is that Musk knows Tesla is a melting polar cap because BYD is coming. His long term plays are SpaceX and maybe his software (although he looks like he backed the wrong horses on that front). SpaceX will make its big money in military/government contracts, and the far right loves military spending. I wouldn’t be shocked if SpaceX does deals with Putin and Xi in the next decade to build out their satellite coms, no matter how insane that sounds now if you follow international politics.
That, or took much K cooks the brain.
Basically, it’s a coin flip.
It will be cheap until the competition is bankrupt and
out of business. At that point the price will be what the market will bear and with fewer
competitors that price will be high. BTW, social costs are never mentioned by free traders.
The $20-25k new car market is showing fantastic growth like the new Chevy Trax and the Kia K4, so there very good alternatives for buyers who want value without going to the Chinese.
Sporkfed, that’s because “free traders” (there has never been any such thing as free trade, by the way — it’s an ideological premise) are from the Margaret Thatcher “there is no such thing as society” wing of atomized neoliberal lunacy.
the part that frustrates me the most is that everything is packaged. i think the modern safety features are great, like surround camera, blind spot monitor, crash avoidance and so forth. but i don’t care at all about sun roofs, leather seats, heated and air conditioned seats, upgraded sound systems or any of that.
but you usually can’t get the safety features without getting all of the other crap too.
Domestic OEMs are already trying to reduce complexity….as they see how Tesla does business. It’s easy to complain as a customer but realistically, factories can only manage so many options packages. Sometimes marketing teams package incorrectly but the reality is not everyone can get every little thing they want, without driving up costs big time. However, at least focusing on what you’re saying would be more beneficial than say ….selling a Chevy silverado under the guise of a ‘GMC Sierra’.
I’m certain the packages are engineered to part you of the moat money possible with no regard for what you (and everyone else) wants.
I mean that’s stellantis’s strategy right now and it doesn’t seem to be working. So i disagree. If you don’t sell customers what they want, they stop buying. The strategy is to create perceived value with minimal cost to company, like software features, backup cameras etc.
DC
Yep,
I bought a no frills exercise bike off one of my mail order catalogs for $150. Assembled it in 30 minutes and have been using it for the last year every day for 20 minutes. “Made in China” . Why can’t US workers make a similar product. Answer anyone?
Because our labor and materials needed to make it would result in a price higher than you want to pay. Same reason we have imported products to begin with.
What would you propose that Americans stop producing so that they could make your exercise bike?
Depth Charge,
I agree with you. I don’t see an issue with Chinese cars nor the government subsidizing them as it is consistent with their political and economic model. They have done with industrialization what nobody thought possible and raised the standard of living. They have a ways to go but nothing suggests they won’t meet their goals. Deng Xioaping knew it was necessary to not only embrace the prevalent model in the world but also develop their productive forces and fit into their model. Admittedly America is worried and it is not without irony they 100% enabled it. America of course won’t crash and burn but will have to adjust, and wealth concentration won’t be what voters want but of course they have little say. Status quo I think for me but my son’s lifetime will likely see some significant shifts. The Chinese are busy playing chess while American politicians are playing monopoly with constantly changing players and priorities. We don’t have 1 year plans, let alone 5 year plans.
‘Deng Xioaping knew it was necessary to not only embrace the prevalent model…’
True. But Xi is a throwback to Mao. Xi is desperate to escape blame for the largest real estate bust in history. He is locking up high ranking members including old allies who go back to his days as mayor. The fundamental task for China is to move on from the CCP.
I live in Japan, and am about to order a BYD Dolphin. There are not many options when you want V2L. The price is also good.
I’m the meantime, Americans cars are being built in China. The little Buick (Enclave?) is Chinese made. The a Chevy Bolt is Korean made (Daewoo). More and more American cars are made in foreign countries and imported. They don’t cost consumers much less, but the companies make out very well on labor costs. My neighbor had a Jeep Renegade, which was made in Italy and powered by Fiat. She had the clutch fail because of the dual mass flywheel. It was $3k to fix because the flywheel was $1,300. She got rid of it right after fixing the clutch. If it was mine, I’d have converted it to a solid flywheel and lived with the extra vibrations.
Kia has put a lot of work into their cars lately. According to consumer reports they now have the best large SUV and the best minivan. Each time they re-engineer a car it seems to vault to the top.
I bought the carnival minivan 2 years ago and couldn’t be happier. It was pricey, but I had a 25 YO sedan that needed replacing.
Back in the late 80’s and early 90’s, Hyundai/Kia made the worst engine, a 1.5L Alpha that was used in nearly every car that wore their name and in the Mitsubishi/Eagle Summit. The issues from this engine’s failures lead to the mandated 10 year 100k mile powertrain warranty for imports. Hyundai redesigned it for the Alpha II and increased the warranty to 150k miles. To this day, I still don’t trust their engines. I haven’t heard many complaints about their V6s or even their bigger fours, but they’ve been having issues with some engines, again.
Stellantis’ problems are easy to understand. I’ve owned several Dodge / Chrysler vehicles. They all fell apart within about 4 to 5 years. I’ll never buy another one.
No, their #1 problem is THE PRICE. They jacked the prices up to levels so laughable that most of their customers literally disappeared. Ram trucks used to be the best value of the big 3, because they were markedly cheaper. It was easy to find them $15k-$20k less than the competition.
Further, the Ram HD diesel trucks with the Cummins turbo diesel lasted much longer than the Ford and Chevy options. Nowhere is that fact more obvious than when you look at hotshot drivers. It’s been over 80% Ram trucks over the competitors, because you could easily go 600,000+ miles with good maintenance.
Then Ram went full clown show and their lowest trim level diesel truck, the Tradesman, which used to be in the high $30Ks, is now routinely in the $70Ks. And their loaded models are over $100K. They priced out the very people who used to buy them. They need to cut Ram truck prices by 40%, minimum. And even then they’re still eye-watering.
Part of what made RAM HD a success was their use of the I6 diesel. No other manufacturer offers that, and couple that with Cummins longevity and diesel history. Resulting in the durability you mention. But also efficiency, they are known to be more efficient under load (thats why nearly all Semi trucks use I6 diesels). But the rest of the truck was never known to be durable. The other challenge with diesels is regulation and requirements, which make them expensive and prone to failure. Agree with you though that now with inflation catching up to us, they have priced themselves out of a major market. And therefore, they deserve to fail, in my opinion. Allowing BYD into USA wont change that a whole lot.
Correct. a 500,000 mile engine surrounded by a 100,000 mile truck.
I have two 2014 Jeeps and will never sell either of them. At the time you could get an unlimited warrenty.
Both are over 100k and almost zero problems. The polar started having lifter noise and they rebuilt everything under warrenty even with it being 10 years old and 100k+.
The cars are good, the owners are another matter.
I bought a 2014 Dodge challenger in Nov of 2013 and still have it. Battery lasted 11 years and the car has been trouble free. But it’s a v6 with no options except the rear spoiler and 20 in wheels. It’s fun to drive and was way under 30k. Bare bones car, love it.
It is incredible that we don’t sell more cars than we did in 1986. I suspect the used car market makes up for population increase. Prices are too high for new cars. But why? It seems to be across the board with all automakers, except maybe the Chinese. Has net profits exploded over those decades? Regulatory requirements? Raw materials? Manufacturing costs (labor and materials)? Bureaucracy? Corporate debt to funnel cash back to Wall Street? I’m betting a little of each. How many of these things can be fixed by better management to create more competitive prices? The lack of transparency in the market is maddening.
Better cars last longer?
Absolutely. Vehicles nowadays last way longer than what they did back in the mid-1980s, with the average fleet age going up from less than 8 years then to almost 13 years today.
This certainly helps explain why new car unit sales have stagnated despite a significant rise is the US population in the past 40 years.
It is amazing that cars, unlike nearly every other consumer product these days, actually last longer than their twenty year-old counterparts.
Lasting longer is a mixed blessing. Manufacturers stop producing spare parts after about a decade, by their own admission. Then you are left to attempt to scrounge and pay up in the aftermarket.
Dealers will also tell you that they have a hard time replacing mechanics that retire. They also have to pay up, which explains the shop time cost increases to diagnose and then attempt to fix your car or truck.
From what I can see most cars stay on the road 19-20 years now. That is probably now too long for the industry to grow.
Also of note vehicle miles traveled total is 18% above 2000 levels.
silly comparison. how much work has been done over the years to those ice vehicles that are 20-25 years old? do they have a new transmission? rebuilt engine? replaced head gasket? timing belt?
why is it that everyone insists that ev vehicles are junk because they need a new battery, but ignore all of the maintenance and repair costs ice vehicles need?
That’s your speculation, 15 years? Based on what, because your cell phone needed a new battery? You are just guessing. You are aware that there’s plenty of teslas with 300k miles right? How long you want your battery to last for, a million miles? Will you be happy then? Ever been to the rust belt to see what cars look like after 20 years? Nothing last forever, and cars are designed with a finite life, like most non commercial things in this world…
Because they can charge them. It’s as simple as that. Do things cost more, well yes, labor and parts. But that doesn’t explain it. Management will never reduce prices to help the common folks, their job is to maximize profits. You want lower prices….. you need reduced sales, high inventory, increased competition. That’s what’s slowly starting to occur.
Perhaps the market itself is stagnant. My father would replace his car every three years like clockwork because it would start to fall apart. We keep our vehicles for eight years or more and rarely have issues with them, so there isn’t much incentive for us to change. Bling only goes so far. We recently replaced an eight-year-old ICE Hylander with an EV (downsized). It was not a Tesla.
The fortunate few are those getting a car allowance for leasing and upgrading every 2-3 years. That allowance also covers gas and maintenance. Nice work, if you can get it.
Yep. A neighbor gets a brand new, loaded diesel truck every couple years. He sold his personal truck because he even uses the company truck on personal time.
It’s ironic that Elon Musk supported the Trump election so visibly even though it was the Dems that gave him a $7500 credit for every car, protected him with tariffs, and Dem voting California was the state that’s really boosted them initially.
The sooner all of the sheep who bought into partisan politics realize they were nothing more than pawns in the billionaires’ giant ego game of “feel my power,” which they play with each other, the sooner the system can experience change. Alas, I have zero hope for that. Because, people are stupid.
Depth Charge,
You’re not suggesting with the ownership of mass media by corporations and control of most other media in some fashion that Americans are buying all the propaganda and politicians and corporations are laughing their way to the bank? Don’t worry, if it gets bad enough some table scraps will be thrown our way. There are reasons why politicians pursue things like TikTok ban and has nothing to do with privacy or security of individuals data but Gen Z and Alpha get unfiltered view as ideally free speech was perhaps intended.
I think I bought the best car that fills in the best of the all possible worlds. I bought the Hyundai Tucson Hybrid Plug In. It gives you the best of everything in one car. The Plug In gives you 33 miles when totally charged so that on a day to day basis you don’t have to buy gasoline. The Hybrid part also powers the plugin battery so on long trips it extends the 33 mile rule. At home I rarely get gasoline at all. In the 18 months that I have owned it I have probably spent $800 in gas. An total EV car gets me nervous if I had to take long trips.
If you are only going to own one car, your solution is the most flexible currently available. If you have a fleet of two or more cars in your family, then I would recommend instead at least one EV and at least one ICE instead.
Look at the price of steel and any other key commodity over the same time range and you’ll see a strong correlation for the auto price surge.
I would submit that most of this is due to the inflation impulse that was engineered by the Fed (and US Gov.) during the COVID shutdown.
Faced with these basic input cost increases, the automakers decided to add a bunch of cheap/unnecessary gimmicks to help justify the huge price increases; most of which, as indicated by comments above aren’t even desired or desirable.
Add to that the predicatable labor demands after the initial price impulse and the automakers, like many industries had their hands tied.
It’s the inflation of the currency during COVID that is the root cause.
You nailed it. A lot of suppliers have gone out of business since their pricing was tied to old commodity prices. Anyone who can’t re-price in this game disappears. Manufacturers have re-priced accordingly, to whatever people will pay. Margins have fattened some but not exponentially. In time, customers may find price discovery if enough inventory builds up. As you say, this was financially engineered at a much higher level. Hardly greedy automakers , as they were always and will always be greedy, as they are allowed to be. Just a small part of the everything bubble.
I know there is a huge bias on this site for EV and lots of chatter on big sales increases, but they are still way behind ICE in total sales. I tried one and had huge problens as I am rural and travel rural.
Our auto makers do not need protection, they need compatition. If we block out china we will fall behind in quality, innovation,and sales.
Don’t allow ego to go before common sense. We need china way more than they need us. Deals will be made and all the current political bs will be forgotten.
Elon is one very smart guy. He knows car production is not the future. It is bateries, charging, data, and space. Oh my he is in all of those and more.
Your charts are pretty funny. EV sales are soaring at GM to a total of 100,000 vehicles (same as Ford). That’s multiple car styles. They cancel ICE cars that only sell 100,000 a year. And they certainly don’t invest multiple billions of dollars in them. Toyota’s and Honda’s charts look better than both Ford and GM and they certainly didn’t miss that paltry 100k worth of EV sales and total misapplication of resources
Stellantis and Nissan have both ignored their product line for years and haven’t reinvested in new designs. Of course they are going in the toilet. Mal-investing another couple billion dollars into EV’s for 100k worth of sales certainly isn’t going to help. Nissan did do some EV cars and was one of the early adopters. how’s that going for them?
Sooo…they should just ride out ICE until it fully collapses (likely within 5-15 years) while dedicated EV OEMs walk away with the future of transportation? Sounds smart. 🤪😆
The true beautiful chart is Hyundai Kia, and they have done lots of EV investment. The landscape is changing, EVs will continue to grow like them or not.
Why would anyone ever even consider another manufacturer than BMW which make a wonderful array of vehicles all the way from Minis up through BMW Rolls-Royce? The 2025 BMW models are better than ever and offer petrol (gasoline), diesel, and electric cars and remain the ultimate driving machines for discerning drivers. I have 4 BMWs and they are simply superb with no equals at all.
Glad you like them. Not everyone likes the same thing. That’s the American way. Get used to it.
That must be why there are so many junk vehicles on the road.+
BMW doesn’t make a truck. Have you been to Texas?
I’ve been to Texas a number of times. Most all people in trucks have no need or use for trucks at all and they are a very crude form of vehicle that should be highly taxes off of all US roads.
Agreed. Let’s tax trucks out of peoples hands because you don’t like them. I’ll call my local government reps today and recommend this. All hail Bavarian Motor Works !!
Lots of BMW’s here in Texas. Parents usually buy them for their daughters when they turn 16.
Same in Beverly Hills, CA but parents usually buy BMWs for their sons too when they turn 16!
One of my longtime friends lives in Texas. He bought a BMW SUV so he can travel with his bicycles in the back. And he does.
Um, $$$$$.
And $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to repair as they age. I know. But I’m sure yours have all been “superb”….
BMW work truck ?
BMW is for those who can’t afford a good German car like Porsch.
I really love the looks of early Z’s and would love to add one to my collection, but you can’t keep one running and off of the lift
Nope. BMW makes the best and most reliable cars in the world and they are far superior to Porsches.
SoCalBeachDude, because BMWs are overpriced at retail and repair costs are far, far higher than domestic.
I own a BMW motorcycle, but I would NEVER buy one of their cars.
BMW cars are not overpriced at all and most are remarkable bargains at their current retail prices relative to lesser vehicles.
I have had 4 BMWs, my current X4M40i for 8-1/2 years. Apart from air conditioning, no repairs at all. For finish, performance and road feel, there is no equal. It takes 5 seconds to pass a transport truck.
Yep. 100% correct.
The downside of BMW is maintenance expense. It is famously expensive.
BMW’s are fun to drive, no question. They’re not fun to maintain.
Automakers other than Tesla and BYD lose money on every EV they sell. More EV sales are a double-sided blade. They have to get into that market but in the short term, it is killing them. Tesla’s margins are much larger than BYD but BYD still has large volumes in China (Half the cars sold in China are EV’s). BTW, Tesla rolls a car off the line in China every 28 seconds. EV’s are the future and some makers are late to the party.
Here is the principle of mass production. You lose money on small volume production — like Tesla did for 10 years — but as production rises, the PER-UNIT production costs decline, and then you reach break-even production volume, and then beyond that you’re raking in the big money. In mass production, it’s all about volume. And at first, as you ramp production, you lose lots of money on every unit. That’s how it works. Tesla is a perfect case study for that. And that’s why auto manufacturing is so deadly for new companies — because you end up burning so much cash during the first 10 years before you have enough volume that most companies will run out of money, and investors’ good will, before they get there.
Tesla is not there yet. Its profit depends on (1) subsidy from US government (2) emission credits sold to other car companies.
BS layered on top of BS.
1. Rebates don’t go to Tesla, they go to the consumer, and consumers decide what vehicle to buy from whom. And a lot of the Tesla models don’t even qualify for it.
2. Regulatory credits go to Tesla, but Tesla is very profitable without them. You can just look this up instead of spreading BS here. See the link to Tesla’s 10-Q filing below.
Regulatory credits, 2024 through Q3: $2.07 billion
Income before tax, 2024 through Q3: $6.22 billion
Income without credits: 2024 through Q3: $4.15 billion
Regulatory credits, 2023 through Q3: $1.36 billion
Income before tax, 2024 through Q3: $7.78 billion
Income without credits: 2024 through Q3: $6.42 billion
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024043486/tsla-20240930.htm
3. Lots of these regulatory credits come from foreign countries where Tesla sells vehicles.
4. Regulatory credits don’t come from governments, and are not paid by governments, but are paid by other companies that Tesla sells these credits to.
I used to file announcements of a ‘battery breakthrough’ with fusion etc., but with Toyota now saying its solid state battery will be in production in 2 years, it’s time to consider the POSSIBLE arrival of a 700 mile range and ten minute charging. The announcement is not coming from a flaky startup.
If lithium ion can replace Ni Cad why can’t something replace Li?
One question: it must take one heck of a charging system to deliver that much power in ten minutes.
industrialized products need to have good performance, long life, ease to manufacture, and low defect rate. Many claims of advanced battery designs don’t pan out because they fail one of the several requirements.
TopSpeed: The Current Status Of Toyota’s Solid State Battery Development
Toyota’s focus has shifted towards solid-state batteries – a technology that promises to revolutionize electric vehicles with higher energy densities, faster charging times, and enhanced safety. In recent years, Toyota has made significant strides in developing solid-state battery technology, aiming to overcome the limitations of current lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries differ from traditional lithium-ion batteries by using a solid electrolyte instead of a liquid one. This fundamental change allows for several advantages, including higher energy density, which can significantly extend the range of EVs. Solid electrolytes also improve safety by reducing the risk of leaks and fires associated with liquid electrolytes. Additionally, solid-state batteries can support faster charging times, making EVs more convenient for users.
Toyota’s interest in solid-state batteries dates back more than a decade. Recognizing the limitations of lithium-ion technology, Toyota began investing heavily in research and development of solid-state alternatives. Their vision was clear: to create a battery that could outperform existing technologies in all critical areas—energy density, safety, and charging speed. Toyota’s early investment has positioned them as a frontrunner in the race to commercialize solid-state batteries.
In 2020, Toyota unveiled a prototype vehicle powered by solid-state batteries, marking a significant milestone in their development journey. This prototype showcased the potential of solid-state technology, offering a glimpse into the future of EVs. The prototype demonstrated impressive performance metrics, including higher energy density and faster charging times compared to conventional lithium-ion batteries. This milestone highlighted Toyota’s progress in translating laboratory research into practical, real-world applications.
Manufacturing these batteries at scale also presents challenges, as solid-state batteries require precise and often expensive production processes. Toyota has invested in developing advanced manufacturing techniques to address these challenges. One approach involves using thin-film deposition techniques to create uniform and defect-free solid electrolytes. This method allows for precise control over the electrolyte’s composition and structure, which is crucial for achieving high performance and reliability.
While solid-state batteries offer numerous advantages, ensuring their long-term durability has been a hurdle. Toyota’s research has focused on addressing issues such as dendrite formation, which can cause short circuits and reduce battery lifespan. Dendrites are tiny, needle-like structures that can form on the battery’s electrodes during charging and discharging cycles. These structures can penetrate the solid electrolyte, causing internal short circuits and reducing the battery’s overall performance.
nother critical challenge is the cost of solid-state batteries. Currently, they are more expensive to produce than traditional lithium-ion batteries. Toyota is working on optimizing manufacturing processes and scaling production to bring down costs. Achieving cost parity with lithium-ion batteries will be essential for the widespread adoption of solid-state technology. One approach Toyota is exploring to reduce costs is the use of abundant and low-cost materials for the solid electrolyte. For example, sulfide-based electrolytes can be synthesized from relatively inexpensive raw materials, making them a cost-effective option. Additionally, Toyota is investing in automation and advanced manufacturing techniques to improve production efficiency and reduce labor costs.
https://www.topspeed.com/toyota-solid-state-battery-development-current-status/
Toyota has been saying solid-state batteries are “just a few years away” for so many years now that I’ve stoped counting.
That said, there certainly is a constant stream of advances in battery technology over time (not just lithium ion but other chemistries as well). Unlike fission, ongoing improvements have actually made a difference, with battery manufacturing costs having come down dramatically over the past dozen years or so. This trend will continue, although maybe not quite at the same breakneck speed of a few years ago and will undoubtedly reach the point where EVs will become price-competitive with ICE vehicles at the point of sale. It is an inevitability as ICE vehicles do not enjoy the same expected manufacturing cost decrease curve given they are a mature technology. Just a matter of time.
When motor cars were first invented independently in 1896 by Carl Benz and Gottlieb Daimler who would merge in 1926 to become Daimler-Benz AG marketing Mercedes-Benz vehicles car were intended only as toys for the very rich and now we are coming full circle back to that concept after an interlude of interruption stimulated by Henry Ford making junk vehicles for the poor and lower classes which litter the road of the word now.
🤣
Trivia: Benz and Daimler never met. The ignition in the first Benz vehicle, a trike was by pilot light at the top of the cylinder. Benz idea was to ignite it with an electric spark. ‘Mercedes’ a French women’s’ name, was a marketing idea to overcome prejudice after WWI. The whole very early bit is pretty much a German story with the four- stroke cycle invented by Otto and Langen
Typo: electric spark ignition was Daimler’s idea.
Mercédès Adrienne Ramona Manuela Jellinek (16 September 1889 – 23 February 1929) was the daughter of Austrian automobile entrepreneur Emil Jellinek and his first wife Rachel Goggmann Cenrobert. She was born in Vienna and is best known for her father having Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft’s line of Mercedes cars named after her, beginning with the Mercedes 35 hp model of 1901.
I hadn’t realized she lived only 40 years!
Mercédès Adrienne Ramona Manuela…
Pretty names…don’t sound Austrian.
Great post! It is interesting that the traditional automakers have continued to pursue increasingly expensive vehicles. I recently read an article on how the Tesla Model 3 competes as one of the lowest cost vehicles to own. It’s a compelling argument to purchase one of these over the vast majority of traditional ICE vehicles.
The automakers have jacked up prices on ICE vehicles in an attempt to cover EV losses.
Bullshit on all levels.
1. Tesla doesn’t sell ICE vehicles, and it’s very profitable.
2. The models that sell in high enough volume are profitable, see Tesla, Hyundai and Kia. But during the ramp-up period as they’re trying to get volume up, they’re going to lose money. This is the case with ALL MASS-PRODUCED PRODUCTS.
3. Automakers cut prices over the past 2 years, not raised them. RTGDFA. Did you see the chart of the Average Transaction Price? Also look at my CPI articles and go down to the New Vehicle CPI chart. They jacked up prices in 2020-2021. And none of the EVs from Ford and GM that are on the market now were on the market back then.
SocalJim is having a bad day for sure. He can’t sell a house to save his life, and now you have to go humiliate him with facts.
Tesla is profitable because it is selling regulatory credits to other automakers. Do you know about that?
This is what I posted right here in the comments above a few hours ago.
Tesla is very profitable without them. You can just look this up instead of spreading stupid BS here. See the link to Tesla’s 10-Q filing below.
Regulatory credits, 2024 through Q3: $2.07 billion
Income before tax, 2024 through Q3: $6.22 billion
Income without credits: 2024 through Q3: $4.15 billion
Regulatory credits, 2023 through Q3: $1.36 billion
Income before tax, 2024 through Q3: $7.78 billion
Income without credits: 2024 through Q3: $6.42 billion
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024043486/tsla-20240930.htm
Adios.
From a recent article in Barrons: “Tesla believes it can launch a self driving robotaxi service in late 2025. Estimates of how much that service can be worth range from hundreds of billions to several trillion dollars.” and “FSD [Full Self Driving] version 13.2 gives some hope that Musk, who is famously optimistic about self driving timelines will be right this time.” You might have to recalculate your PE multiple for Tesla stock.
Also, concerning AI, here’s an old Winston Churchhill quote for you: “If you don’t take change by the hand, it will grab you by the throat.”
Barrons?? LOL Hype and hoopla piece to pump up the stock price. They’ve been doing that for years. Tesla’s robotaxis, if and when they finally arrive, don’t even have permits to operate. They will have to slowly prove themselves, city by city, no expressways at first, etc., just like Waymos did and do. You people are incredibly gullible.
Where is Mazda?
I just bought a new 2024 Mazda CX5, made in Hiroshima, Japan.
Paid $31,000 cash out the door. I love it!
I didn’t want 1.5 liter turbo engine or a 10 speed CVT slush box tranny or a sunroof and I don’t care about infotainment or a 12″ display monitor, etc.
That left me with Toyota or Mazda. Mazda was $8,000 cheaper.
2.5 liter fuel injected with a 6 speed auto that can be put in sport mode and shifted manually and Skyactive all wheel drive.
Mazda has the SAME base engine (you can get turbo) for it’s entire line, so they better be good. Mazda gets marked down because it isn’t a smart phone that you drive. Guess what? It’s a blast to drive!
If you ask which is most reliable make…most say Toyota.
In fact although they are virtually tied, Mazda just wins if you grind down into fractions.
My auto purchasing decision is largely driven by safety. The point of a car is transporting safely from point A to point B. I’ll pay more for safety since I believe it is like paying for extra protection in the event of an accident.
Ford was never interested in quality but was completely focused on producing the cheapest car conceivable for the ‘working class’ masses. It was a Johnny-Come-Lately in cars in 1908 at which time it introduced its Model T for $800. By 1914 it had cheapened the Model T so much that its price dropped 75% to $200 and all colors were dropped but the single color of black. This ‘innovative’ approach could again be attempted with cars. The last time making the cheapest car imaginable was by Volkswagen (People’s Car) with the VW Beetle Type 1 in 1938.
While not to your level it seemed like US auto manufacturing tried that. Examples like the Chevy Cruze, which had horrific build quality and made in US. They all ditched the small car segment as providing an affordable car is not their goal, profit is. And then the marketing gets poured into that you can have the perfect Cosby life is you just have a car that matches your desired identity. Jello pops all around.
‘There are only two cars that can stand up to desert warfare. the RR Silver Ghost and the Model T Ford.’
Colonel T. Lawrence (of Arabia)
BMW has long been invested in hydrogen fuel cell technology, and in 2024, their iX5 Hydrogen pilot fleet is being tested globally.
After years of development, this hydrogen-powered SUV integrates BMW’s advanced fuel cell technology, offering a maximum output of 401 horsepower and a range of up to 500 kilometers. The vehicle features two hydrogen tanks, which can be refueled in just 3-4 minutes, making it a viable alternative for long-distance, zero-emission driving.
The iX5 Hydrogen is being evaluated under various real-world conditions, including extreme temperatures and different terrains, and has performed impressively in both hot and cold environments. BMW is using insights from this pilot to prepare for potential series production by 2028.
Fuel cells have been around for over 180 years. They provided the electricity for the Apollo space craft and the Space Shuttle. In the year 2000, I worked on a fuel cell project. At the time there were lots of experimental vehicles with fuel cells. United Technologies had a bus powered by its fuel cell, BMW had a fuel cell vehicle, as did Mercedes, as did others. Fuel cells work great. The issue is hydrogen, which is a nasty, difficult to contain, and expensive fuel. And that’s where it fell apart — hydrogen, not fuel cells. And that’s where it still falls apart.
H for Hindenburg. Until we can store hydrogen safely, it’s too dangerous. If we can find a way to store it, it’s the perfect fuel.
Hydrogen is everything. It’s got loads of energy, it’s clean (because it has no carbon in it). It’s the reason methane / natural gas is so clean (CH4….get it, H4??). It’s the reason ‘hydro-carbons’ are so powerful, like diesel, gas, butane, propane, etc. it’s the reason your car doesn’t run on wood or coal alone, but more energy dense hydrogen-containing fuels. But if you don’t get it from the fossil fuels like you already are, how are you going to produce large sums of it??
Yes it’s the ultimate energy dense fuel with no carbon in it, but you still have to come up with it somehow before you go burn it. There’s no magic here, unless you come up with a cheap way to extract it from water for everyone. If you do, you’ll be rich.
9% efficiency is pretty damn good (with pure deionized water). These guys even claim 7% from tap or sea water:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05399-1
Hopefully somebody is working on transport and storage.
9% efficiency? LOL Solar cells are 20-47% efficient, depending on how much money you want to spend. You’re far better off using a solar cell to generate electricity directly, feed it into the grid, to then charge EV batteries that then will power the EVs – than creating hydrogen at a 9% efficiency, paying for the costs and energy needed to compress and physically transport and distribute the hydrogen to a filling station, compressing it further to 5,000 PSI or 10,000 PSI to then fill up the car, so that the fuel cell in the car can generate electricity to power the car.
Wolf – All true statements (of course) – and if all we want to do is power up EVs and charge batteries, with current tech then fuel cells will always win, hands down. Given that this is an automotive thread that’s probably the right way to think about it.
(removed a block here re: energy density that you’ve addressed in a separate response – too bad, had a cool zinger about why SpaceX doesn’t use electric rockets…)
Battery tech and energy density will improve, but so will the efficiency of photoinduced water splitting – it is literally one of the holy grails of pure science, on par with controlled nuclear fusion. When we have it, somebody will monetize the hell out of it, for better or worse, in ways we haven’t considered yet.
None of this negates the issues of transport, storage, and use, but those are engineering problems with known solutions – very expensive, politically problematic, but known solutions.
All I was really saying though, is that 7% with seawater and sunlight is really good 50 or so years after Honda-Fujishima. How long have batteries been around, since Ben Franklin or something?
We would additionally have to invent a way to reliably store and distribute it.
And it doesn’t appear that is likely.
Blake,
largely agree but have a couple of quibbles:
1. “it’s the ultimate energy dense fuel…”: No, hydrogen it’s the LEAST energy-dense fuel. To get any kind of useable energy density from the gas, you have to compress it to 5,000 psi or better 10,000 psi, which is a huge amount of pressure and requires special tanks, tubes, fittings, etc. Your car tires take 34 psi. In addition, H is so small that under this kind of pressure it seeps through many metals and fittings, requiring special materials to contain it. Look on a periodic table: H is the element with the smallest atomic weight, at the very top left.
2. “before you go burn it.” No, fuel cells don’t burn hydrogen. They’re electrochemical cells that use H and oxygen (from ambient air or other oxidizing agent) to generate electricity (you can obviously use H as fuel for an ICE, but that’s a huge waste).
Ok fair. Yes I was speaking in terms of combustion. And on a mass basis…where hydrogen is about 3x energy dense (kw/kg) as our hydrocarbon fuels like diesel/gas. Which makes it extremely appealing as even just a combustible fuel, and explains why it makes our liquid fuels so powerful compared to high carbon fuels (wood, coal, etc). But not so appealing when you consider the issues you’ve mentioned above.
On a volume basis the story is different agreed.
“3x energy dense (kw/kg)”
H is the lightest atom. It’s far lighter than air. 1 kg of H is a huge amount of volume, like a big balloon, unless you compress it. For fuels, energy density is measured by volume (volumetric density), for example, Btu per gallon, megajoules per liter, etc. One gallon of H at atmospheric pressure will power nothing. You hold a lighter at it, and it goes pop if you’re lucky, and that’s it.
Stellantis has no idea on what American customers want and they also have no idea how to market and sell cars in America. I’ll gladly take 30% of the the current CEO in charge of American decision making capabilities. Nobody wants a V6 charger. It sounds terrible and most people that buy a charger/challenger like the V8 rumble, hence why you tried to incorporate it into your electric vehicle. Why bring a V6 when you are already trying to push electric muscle cars on people? Getting rid of the main reason people bought a performance Dodge….a V8 seems like an incredibly bad idea that was championed by someone with no backbone and encouraged by yes men.
Keep the V8 and reduce weight to get your Mpg/EPA goals where they need to be. I will not buy either new Dodge and I’ve been a long time owner and fan. Europeans are killing Dodge.
CEOs forgot what Ford then GM then Walmart proved. 3 quick nickels beats one slow dime. There’s at least 3 major niches being absolutely ignored, by ALL automakers worldwide. Because it’s not about sales, it’s about the agenda of the multi-billionaires.
Last I checked the conventional ICE auto industry is hardly made up of mega billionaires. That’s tech my friend. Automotive is not all that profitable, from a margins standpoint, super high capital, dirty, old , industry. Who’s getting rich off the companies or their stocks? Unless maybe by shorting them lol?? Billionaires are now created through Tesla, Rivian, etc, their supporting networks, and tech companies. Old domestic auto creates millionaires, that’s about it.
I haven’t bought a brand new car since 1989 (which was the first and only time) and I don’t expect I ever will.
I also have never spent more than 25K on a car, and that’s Canadian dollars, so about 17.5K USD.
Current vehicle is 14 years old — hoping not to be in the market for another one for a few years yet …
An open apology to automobile aficionados – more than once in these pages I’ve railed against the idea of cars as anything more than mobility devices. I’ve overused the term “glorified Byrd scooter”, pointed to statistics of average use (<1hr/day), depreciation (~50% every 3 years), etc. Unlike many Americans in my income bracket I held no special affection for autos as fetish items and was uncharacteristically closed minded toward the concept.
Then I got a nice one, and I must say, you guys have a point. A couple of weeks ago we took some money off the table, and I dropped a chunk of in on a luxury SUV. I’ve driven more in the past two weeks than the rest of Q4 combined. And I’ve enjoyed every minute of it.
From a pure use-case perspective I could have gotten the same utility (including ~best-in-class off road) from a tricked out 4Runner for 1/3 the cost, but in for a penny, in for a pound and all that – no regerts.
What luxury vehicle did you buy or lease?
SoCal – It’s a ’22 G550 – I’ve been tear-assin’ around since Weds on some land we own about 100 miles east of here. I came home this morning thinking I’d gotten it all out of my system and since I’ve been back about 10″ of snow has fallen. I should have just left my tent up cause I know I’m going back tomorrow.
Did you test drive a BMW X5 or X7?
fullbellyemptymind,
🤣❤️
I knew you’d come around someday.
With new vehicle sales down for years, but annual mileage still strong (albeit somewhat reduced by work-at-home), eventually something has to give. Vehicles last longer but eventually become too expensive to repair. Average age is now at a record high of 12.6 years! Buyers or sellers will have to give in at some point as vehicle wear out.
“Toyota has commenced a huge development program for EVs. So eventually. But it’s way behind”
EV’s are all about batteries and batteries are increasingly about China. So Toyota or any other entrant into the EV space who can acquire batteries from China may not be as far behind as imagined.
Where Toyota does lag badly is software. That is not so easily fixed.
In the EV space, at least in the US which excludes competition from China, Tesla is the place to be. They are probably the best in software and flexible enough to adopt Chinese battery tech.
The biggest long threat to the EV market in the US is protection from Chinese protection and the apparent failure of efforts to create a really robust charging network.
I’d never in a million years buy an EV from any other American company whose engineering culture is completely subordinated to marketing.
I don’t think there’s going to be an automotive industry in 20 years. It’s inefficient to buy a vehicle that sits idle 90% of the time. I’m not impressed with autonomous vehicles so but they’re 1st generation designs. In other words, these are the clumsiest, stupidest, ugliest designs you’re ever going to see. 2nd gen will be a big step up.
I’m sorry but your mobility credits have expired.
American hate small cars?
What about all the fiats, minis, sports cars, etc.?
What Americans hate are generic piece of crap small cars like the ones they were offered for decades.
My personal theory is that manufacturers want to drive the male audience towards high margin trucks and SUVs.
There may have been an exception or two, but until the release of the Ford mustang, it was almost impossible to find any cars that didn’t look like they were meant to be driven by somebody’s wife or girlfriend.
Then came all the muscle cars, but at some point in time the limited audience for that got saturated, Americans don’t mind small cars. They don’t like the crap that was being offered to them… shouldn’t have taken too much effort to make the design slightly more visually appealing than those generic crummy ones.
Dropping by,
“What about all the fiats, minis, sports cars, etc.?
Was this sarcasm? or are you really this ignorant?
1. The “Small bare-bones” care that Americans hate are NOT “sports cars.” For you to lump Fiat and sports cars (Porsche, etc.) into one category is beyond absurd.
2. Fiat sold 1,528 cars in the the entire US in all of 2024 (one-thousand-five-hundred-and-twenty-eight Fiats sold in the entire USA in the entire year of 2024). Just look it up.
3. BMW sold 26,299 Minis in 2024 in the entire USA, down by 21.5% from the prior year. This is a super-low volume vehicle by US standards. Even at BMW, it accounts for only 6.6% of its 400k vehicles sold in the US.
But a Mini is NOT a “bare-bones small car.” The 2-door starts at $32,000 and the nicer 4-door models quickly go over $45,000. This is a compact near-luxury car, made by BMW.
Your personal theory is just as much BS as your first line.