By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Home sales in Canada rose by 2.8% seasonally adjusted in November from October, the fourth month in a row of increases, and roughly back to pre-pandemic levels. Compared to the frozen volume in November last year, home sales jumped by 26%. But volume was still more than 20% below the same months in 2020 and 2021.
New listings inched down by 0.5% from the prior month. But inventory at 160,000 listings, was still 8.9% higher than a year ago, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Supply inched down to 3.7 months in November, from 3.8 months in October.
Prices of single-family properties in Canada were roughly unchanged month-to-month and were down 0.3% year-over-year — the eighth month in a row of year-over-year declines. Since the peak in March 2022, prices dropped by 17.4%, and are back where they’d first been in August 2021, according to the Canada MLS Home Price Index for single-family benchmark properties. All prices here are actual, not seasonally adjusted, in Canadian dollars.
Prices of condos in Canada fell 0.7% in November from October and 3.9% year-over-year, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year declines, to a new three-year low of November 2021. Since the peak in April 2022, the index has dropped by 12.6%.
Home prices by metro in Canada.
Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index:
- Month-to-month: +0.1% to $1,282,100; near September 2021
- From peak in February 2022: -19.1%
- Year-over-year: -0.3%, seventh year-over-year decline in a row.
Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.1% to $649,200, lowest since October 2021.
- From peak in April 2022: -17.2%
- Year-over-year: -5.0%, with year-over-year declines in 22 of the past 23 months.
Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (part of the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):
- Month-to-month: -0.2% to $892,800, just above July 2021
- From peak in February 2022: -22.8%
- Year-over-year: +3.5%.
Hamilton-Burlington metro condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -2.4% to $519,000, a new 3-year low, lowest since September 2021.
- From peak in April 2022: -18.0%
- Year-over-year: -5.1%.
Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.2%, at $1,996,100.
- From peak in April 2022: -4.7%
- Year-over-year: +1.0%.
Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.6%, to $752,800, just above February 2022.
- From high in April 2024: -3.3%; from high in April 2022: -2.5%
- Year-over-year: -1.2%, fifth year-over-year decline in a row.
Victoria, single-family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: unchanged at $1,157,500, just above December 2021
- From peak in April 2022: -10.4%
- Year-over-year: +1.1%.
Victoria condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.5%, to $546,400, below December 2021.
- From high in May 2022: -10.9%
- Year-over-year: -4.0%, fifth year-over-year decline in a row.
Ottawa, single family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.3% to $722,400, below April 2021
- From peak in March 2022: -12.0%
- Year-over-year: +2.1%.
Ottawa, condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.3% to $406,200, below April 2021
- From peak in March 2022: -11.2%
- Year-over-year: -3.7%.
Calgary, single family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.1%, to $680,200, fourth month-to-month decline after huge two-year spike.
- Year-over-year: +7.0%, the smallest gain since July 2023.
Calgary, condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -1.2%, to $342,300. Third month in a row of sharp declines after gigantic spike.
- Year-over-year: +7.7%, the smallest since January 2022.
Montreal, single family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.2%, to $640,500.
- From peak in May 2022: -0.7%
- Year-over-year: +6.4%.
Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -2.1% to $536,800
- From peak in April 2022: -7.4%
- Year-over-year: +3.7%.
Halifax-Dartmouth, condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -3.3% to $456,500
- From peak in April 2022: -4.6%
- Year-over-year: -0.8%.
Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.3% to $458,700, same as in April 2022.
- Year-over-year: +9.7%
- In the 17 years since the peak of the prior bubble in June 2007, the index is up 16%.
Edmonton, condo benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -1.0% to $194,100, first seen in 2007.
- From peak in June 2007: -19.6%
- Year-over-year: +10.9%
Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: +3.2% to $434,500
- Year-over-year: +12.4%
Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:
- Month-to-month: -0.2% to $380,200
- From peak in March 2022: -2.0%
- Year-over-year: +9.3%
And here is the US equivalent: The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Prices Drop in All 33 Big Metros, Most in Austin, Tampa, Dallas, San Antonio: From 2022 peaks: Austin -22%, San Francisco -10%, Phoenix -9%, San Antonio -8%, Denver -7%, Salt Lake City -6%, Sacramento -6%, Portland -6%, Dallas -6%, Seattle -5%, Honolulu -5%…
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:
Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? Sign up here.
Thanks WR,
I just cant fathom how and why people are paying so much for home sin Canada.
This baby has long way to go down and down,
We need similar story for USA as well which is unfolding in similar way per your recent posts.
Like W.R. says, things don’t go down in a straight line. It’s economic physics! Yes, a continued tragic increase in equity (real estate) can bring out the worst in our human nature.
The suffering and tragedy can not be over stated. To take on a 30 yr mortgage with crazy horse on the loose is a recipe for disaster.
It’s a good bet that good news is not on the horizon for our fine Canadian neighbors.
Homes are priced in houses.
You either bought years ago, and you can have a home.
Or you didn’t, and you cannot.
Nobody here does any real work.
The economy is completely fake.
I’d like to think that the overextension will lead to a more significant and sustained period of price drop, but honestly the poor economy may be overwhelmed by “resort-style” dynamics at least in Toronto/Vancouver, where purchases are made primarily by outside money insensitive to local price/wage or price/rent ratios. For instance, we are looking at moving back to Toronto from the US because compared to expensive coastal cities in the US, Toronto is actually a great deal. There are $2 million CAD SFHs in desirable areas like High Park and Davisville Village which converts to $1.4 million USD which is comparable to Seattle suburbs and way better than pries in San Jose. Then you also consider walkable urbanism, better public transit, and lower property taxes in Toronto and you get a win. That’s unfortunately why there are people still looking to buy at these prices.
That’s unfortunately why there are people still looking to buy at these prices
If above is true then why prices are falling
Stripping out the pandemic peak the last 3 years have been roughly flat with seasonal variations (higher in the spring) which may be driven more by composition effect. One realtor I talked to in Toronto has a theory that everyone is doing everything they can to “hang onto” their house and pay their mortgage including sacrificing all other discretionary spending and tapping extended family help. He notes that many immigrant cultures rely heavily on cross subsidization from extended family members. i.e. the one distant rich uncle won’t let the family default on payment. If this is true it would explain why we haven’t seen a surge in listings despite the Canadian economy in the doldrums.
Hi Rick
Realtor would be the last person I’d trust when it comes to real estate economics.
Hope you understand why 😀
All BoC rates are between 3% and 3.3%. The RE sector is the largest in the country. During the plunge the BoC cut rates to ease the pain. The spread between US10Y, BoC, ECB, BOJ and the PBOC is too tempting. The Fed might cut rates causing no harm. Money from all over the world might pour in to finance our economy. Canadian oil will support our expansion, bringing strong dollars home. Demand for Western Canada Select will be high. WCS might rise above WTI without tariffs.
Canada’s mortgage market is dominated by “fixed-rate” mortgages that are fixed for only a short period of time, such as two years or five years, and variable-rate mortgages. While variable-rate mortgages have seen rates drop along the lines of the BOC’s rate cuts, the fixed-rate mortgages track in parallel to the 5-year Government of Canada bonds. And those 5-year yields have risen recently despite the rate cuts.
More details about Canadian mortgages here:
https://wolfstreet.com/introduction-to-canadian-variable-rate-mortgages-fixed-rate-mortgages-mortgage-insurance-and-helocs/
From the linked article: how does negative amortization and the “trigger rate” work?
If rates keep going up but the monthly payment stays the same – doesn’t the interest component just take up a larger % of the payment, and the loan takes longer to payoff? How could the required interest payment be larger?
Mortgage terms in Canada are either “fixed rate” (attached to the 5 year government bond) – or “variable rate” (attached to the BOC’s benchmark rate). I believe the ratio of current mortgages is roughly 70% fixed to 30% variable in Canada.
Variable rate mortgages with all major banks (except Scotia bank) have all payments stay static with possible fluctuations in the ratios of interest and principal that are billed (due to changes in the benchmark interest rate).
Most mortgages are under 25 year amortizations and most are renewed in 5 year term intervals (fixed or variable terms).
For variable mortgage holders during the run up with the benchmark rate – interest portion of bill increased greatly – with static payments – that decreases the portion of principal that is paid (except Scotia bank – overall monthly bill increases on variable rate). After home owners current term expires – on a fixed 25 year amortization – renewing for another 5 years – principal owing is more because of more funds being directed to cover increased interest. On renewal – monthly bill will be higher, not only because of (likely) higher interest being paid in new term, but outstanding principal that wasn’t paid in previous term – being spread out through rest of amortization period. Hope this helps.
ScrappyDoo,
Thanks very much for that explanation. I see where I was confused – it’s on renewal after the five years that the payment goes up because of the higher interest component of the payment.
Lower prices are a start. But pricrs are still too high for the average earner. And it’s suspicious how sticky prices are.
Housing affordable in canada, more than the price:
* % agent fee, pushed $ sales-cost as house prices inflated, anecdotally $15k to $60k, over 30 years, same house.
* municipal development charges (these are for necessities, roads sewers schools, etc, much are real cost as there is no spare capacity in city infrastructure)
* property taxes escalating 10% to 15% per year for years (some from inflation, some from lack of controls, some from wonky non essential polices)
* home insurance, up ?%?
* home maintenance; esp labour has near doubled since 2020
* CHMC says 1.2m loans to renew in 2025, and 1m will face 30% to 40% payment increases, due to rates.
* 60% of mortgages are yet to renew, soon though, as, in cdn, the “term” is typically under 7 years
* overburdens of: a) 25% to 35% cummulative and rising inflation, b) politicians live to play Santa Claus with taxpayers money; way too many politicians per capita in canada; way too much waste and cronism, c) over immigration past an affordable absorption, c) immigration that did not in numbers replace the skills of retiring boomers who built and maintained this place, d) excessive debt carrying cost; now a huge long term burden, e) real-jobs job destruction, f) absence of rational public interest leadership.
USA is potentially in a better place. But world wide, especially the west, it’s similar issues. Globally coordinated? I hope USA can rationally reset, then path out of this is illuminated.
Does anyone ever hope for a recession?
Looking at graphs like these make we wish for another ’08.
No one in the government hopes for inflation. They actually like it (some). It’s deflation they worry about.
It feels like a real recession and not a “vibe-cession”.
Warehouses (and accompanying temp agencies) are not hiring, very long lines for retail jobs.
One time I saw about dozen middle-aged men wearing business casual in a long line leading to the OVO clothing store job fair.
The people living in the great state of Canada will find no comfort, with the cool chinook winds howling at the front door and the housing Grinch clawing at the back, Christmas must be canceled.
Apparently my old employer cancelled Christmas gathering this year. They’re an automotive supplier. Luckily I jumped ship to F&B which is less cyclical and more stable for machine builds. Let’s see how long Stats Canada can revise the numbers to avoid declaring a recession.
You obviously dont recall 08. Recessions are no fun for anyone except for those sitting on big piles of cash waiting to buy out bleeding folks who are losing their homes, cars, lives and futures.
Be careful what you wish for. I sold out in 2021 and 2022. It’s been hell watching the markets keep running up to nosebleed levels and feeling like I sold too soon, but my time is coming.
i recall it. i’m old.
recessions are fun for the responsible, as they get rewarded for their responsibility.
if you’ve saved up some money, you can deal with a recession. it’s the irresponsible types that suffer in recessions. most modern people are irresponsible, which is why government policy caters to them. simple democracy after all.
I sold in 2020 Barrie Ontario. Same unit now selling for about 5% more than what I got. Meanwhile my house money portfolio is up ~30%+ [which I levelled back to 50% cashlike savings over the past 3 months]. That was my gambit. All good.
All the inventory I have been looking at is way off its 2022 peak. Now with rental vacancies skyrocketting, insurance rates stratospheric, property taxes ratcheting serious increases like never before and condo/strata fees doing similar, even with decrease in interest rates, we are going to see stuck and sticky because with all these other increases, the banks are lending less of the pie. I foresee a slow slide down with a few bid-war blips as well heeled, and parentally subsidized FOMOs again think now or never.
The fact that rent has increased 20-30% since 2020, while single-family housing has increased 2-2.5 times should be a reminder that the market is paying more because it can – not because it has to. Additionally, while sales increased in 2021 and 2022, active listings tanked. With household debt at record levels, changing immigration policy, and the risk of tariffs and war shocks, there is still a lot of room for surprises that aren’t accounted for in the current forecasts. The way many realtors have been talking over the last year shouldn’t sit right. These aren’t “growing pains”, they are signs of a bubble.
Mortgage rates need to come down to 4% or below so that housing becomes affordable again.
Here in the U.S., the mortgage market hasn’t gotten the memo that the Fed is lowering rates. I guess the Fed needs to start acting decisively to get mortgage rates below 4% so that housing can recover.
The Fed is just fine with 7% mortgage rates and has not shown any displeasure with them at all. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US tracks the 10-year Treasury yield with a spread, and QT has widened the spread, and the 10-year yield has risen to 4.4%:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/05/everybody-should-get-used-to-these-mortgage-rates-says-fannie-mae-ceo-mortgage-rates-10-year-treasury-yields-qt-and-spreads/
I think that the interest rates should go up, and as they seem to be doing that I’m not alone.
When it cost you money to borrow people (and businesses) become more fiscally responsible. That’s a good thing.
Get inflation below 2% and interest rates above 10% and the average consumer can actually live well and prosper.
High mortgage rates aren’t the problem but High home prices are.
Looks like sellers are very slowly getting the memo in usa.
Btw.. fed does not directly control the mortgage rates which are tied to 10 y yield which is controlled by market unless fed is buying bonds
To make housing affordable “again”, price needs to come down. Back in 80’s housing was “affordable” even when people paid double digits mortgage rates.
You bond bulls are in for a surprise when mortgages start having double digit yields…
A year ago the 6M was 5%, the 2Y was 4%, the 5Y was 3.3% and the
10Y and above were lower than 3%. The current yield curve lifted the long duration. A year ago all rates up to 10Y were higher than today rates. From 10Y and above below today rates. The BoC lowered the
front end and the 5Y below a year ago and a month ago to reduce mortgage rates, to encourage consumption and to ease gov debt payments.
It’s hard for me to explain the growth in property sales when the job market is collapsing.
BetterDwelling today.
Canada’s labor market just got another round of bad news from the national statistics agency. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows job vacancies fell sharply in Q3 2024, but not due to a hiring boom this time. Employers are hiring for fewer roles, and the outright size of the country’s labor market has begun to shrink for the first time in years. The news comes just a week after the agency warned that the unemployment rate has hit a 7-year high, excluding the pandemic.
In Nova Scotia — We are downsizing and have our rural ocean front home listed for 4 months in the 850k range did not sell but the 6 homes that we looked at to buy, if we sold our home. all sold in the 500k range closer to town. There is a housing shortage here and even a prefab slab home is a minimum of 500k. this month 3 homes we had been watching had open houses and all of the sold the following week.
I have a coworker who just built in Shelburne. 2 storey, 1400 sq ft. Total, on slab, 0.5 acre land. Did much of the work (carpenter by trade) himself (and contracted out all trades he couldn’t do) – about $775,000.
If it is not selling despite being listed for 4 moths then the market is sending you clear signs.. the price is too high
Directionally.. not looking good price wise for future
we are realizing the realtor came up with the number. thinking ontario or bc buyer. the place is awesome we are just aging out. so much more than the homes we are looking at next spring we will add a bunch of acreage and another 450 ft of ocean frontage.
Yesterday I had to drive 10 hours on a return trip to Victoria (BC) to pick up some specialty plywood for a personal project. It was interesting because I built houses there 50 years ago as an apprentice…. right out of high school. To me, the modern version of Vic looked absolutely dreadful with new condos perched right above the highways and I could only wonder why anyone would stay there, especially with condos starting above 500K and strata fees up to $500 monthly. Add on property taxes, wait lines for restaurants, and bumper to bumper traffic, the hype only goes so far.
I seldom agree with bygeorgist on anything, but he nailed it with the following imho:
Homes are priced in houses.
You either bought years ago, and you can have a home.
Or you didn’t, and you cannot.
It was sad to read that truth.
As for the nobody works comment that’s another story. Everyone I know works…and works hard. My GenZ nephew works 4 10hr days, and then an extra shift on Fridays…construction, in Victoria no less. Summer he works most weekends doing side jobs. Job postings everywhere for skilled trades and professions. The key word is skilled.
Oh yeah, saved $600 dollars by picking up the plywood myself. Good day despite the slush, sleet, and lane changing nutjobs. Saw a Tesla truck, even. In Victoria. Ugliest vehicle I have ever seen, but that’s another story.
Right now in the Chinese cities in Canada everything listed isn’t selling. Without the Chinese buying up everything the locals can’t push home prices higher.
And if the Chinese/China had been buying these past few years, more the fool them with the plummeting Canadian currency.
But, from what I read, the real estate situation on their home territory is a planet worst. Lose lose. For them. China and Canada.
And, from the China students I have met with in BC, they really don’t want to be there and I think they are a stronger cohort than earlier ones – communicating emphatically to their parents NO to university in Canada which was one of the means of the mechanics of buying property in BC.
I don’t think Canada is that special regarding RE. It’s a saffehaven. A good chunk buying are cash buyers or corporations. Housing will be fine. Hey, average prices just broke a record in the UK and they are on the verge of a recession. In the US, no one in the middle class can afford a home either. Prices can stay high.