The UK is out of the European Union, and “the rest frankly is detail.”
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
In the June 2016 referendum, the British voted to leave the EU. In March 2017, the UK government formally announced the country’s withdrawal, which kicked off a convoluted tumultuous political affair in the UK as the country was split down the middle. But on January 31, 2020, at 11 p.m. GMT, the UK withdrew from the EU. Brexit happened. And “the rest frankly is detail,” as long-time anti-EU crusader Nigel Farage said at his last speech at the European Parliament (4 minutes).
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Populism is becoming popular!
We are leaving and not coming back!
We love Europeans, we just hate the European Union!
2020…best political year eva.
I could not take in more news beside the Corona Virus scare. Now that a person already died as a tourist outside China, my ears have perked up ONLY on this scare. I listened to Farage, and it went out the other ear.
Wolf, how about those shorts? Corona Virus + Brexit should make it boil.
This coward is waiting for S&P below 3,000 if it ever gets that low.
Keywords: HIV protein strains. Wuhan National Safety Laboratory. Canada. The genome was published almost immediately. Interesting. Doubtful the Chinese make a mistake in their own backyard.
Call me when CV kills even 1/1000th of the population. Until then, it’s not economics, it’s hysteria, wag and vaccine marketing, just like every other flu scare I’ve seen in my life, and as such doesn’t really shoehorn into this conversation. About Brexit.
It’s not the virus itself, or the disease, that causes economic problems. It’s the REACTION by authorities and by large and small economic players that causes economic problems. I spelled this out in my podcast just now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrIwDgUwFuQ
The details come during the rest of 2020.
Meanwhile nothing really changes yet.
UK is not out of the EU. It has lost it voting rights but will be part of the EU for some time. After that it will experience the independence Canada enjoys with respect to the US
Yeah, because the EU is such a power house that everyone respects with even more respected central bank with positive interest rates and well capitalized private banks!
Like in hockey and Tim Hortons?
Or just having their own borders, laws, army, navy, trade deals, immigration policy, tax policy, currency, central bank and weird tv shows…
UK had their own borders
Laws and regulations. Canadian regulations are mostly made in the US or EU. Britain was a co-decider in the EU. Now it is no more. The free trade deal between Canada and the EU have also a court part and i don’t know if the high court in London still rules over Canada
army, navy are the same. Part of Nato. And the UK is complaining that the EU countries are shutting them out
Nafta influences trade deals with other countries.
EU immigration policy only influences EU citizen. Most recent immigrants in the UK are from outside the EU and the UK was allowed to do more but didn’t.
tax policy is officially outside the competence of the EU, in reality not but Canada has the US
British Pound and central bank were as independent of the EURO as Canadian dollar and central bank are to the US dollar
EU require a certain percentage of “domestic”, read EU, content by TV channels/netflix. This was a massive support for British media .
It took Canada 10 years to negotiate it’s trade deal with the EU. Good luck Little England!
there should not be any trade deals.
trade deals are helping good old boys to stay in charge and rich.
Being as the UK has been under the same regulatory system as the EU for the last 40 years or so, there should not be too many legal sticking points to get in the way of a trade deal being quickly struck, whereas Canada and the EU needed a lot of discussions simply to get near to an acceptable parity.
UK might become the EU’s Mexico. A deregulated place where underpaid workers can manufacture and assemble stuff cheaply for import for richer EU countries’ citizens to buy.
Here is a list of richer EU countries:
1. Germany
And now that they’re all alone supporting the rest of the EU, we will see how long they can remain rich without pulling their own exit.
A list of richer EU countries *now*
The only certainty in life is nothing now is certain to be that way in the future. And I see a lot of billionaire-owned corporations circling the UK for a chance to get their pound of flesh in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bribe, corrupt and profit.
This kinds of list are normally done on per person otherwise you end up claiming that Ethiopia is richer than Monaco
Total spending on the EU is simply not that much at a sliver above 1% of EU GDP of which the states only pay 70% directly. I don’t see a problem financing this
Germany won’t leave (plenty of other countries might though). The dirty secret for Germany in the EU, is while it complains about all the poorer EU countries not balancing their budgets and carrying their own weight in the EU, the Germans *LOVE* these countries in the EU with them because it helps keep the Euro weaker then it would be otherwise which massively aids German GDP through exports. The calculation I saw was that it adds up to 2% onto German GDP every single year. Additionally the EU gives Germany a free ride with all sorts of budgeting and financial moves that EU member countries are not technically allowed to do (but it is mostly only enforced on the poorer nations).
Why would Germany want out of this sweet set up? Sure they have to cover it up by acting like all their EU participation is at a huge loss but they do their part because they are selfless and loving, but it really is a free ride for them. The GDP boost is worth far more to them then all the costs.
Lol!
Only Germany? I’ll give you an analogy.
The Joneses and Smiths are neighbours. The Jones household is a two income family, each earning 50k a year after tax. The Smith household has a single income of 150k after tax supporting husband, wife, mother in-law, and 7 children.
Who’s the richer household?
The problem with the UK becoming a manufacturing hub, is that poland and other counties will still be cheaper, even if they are more regulated. Even more significantly, why deal with outside counties as opposed to fellow eu counties. The UK because it’s economy is based on finance and it’s a monarchy, will have to choose between keeping the rich happy or making everyone happy. I suspect the rich will win. Having your country’s economy being based on finance, runs contrary to everything else. The Englanders have grown arrogant and the UK and the Commonwealth will soon start to break apart. And probably after that will be the capital flight.
The EU has problems sure, but they can be solved. The first problem having to accept foreign refugees, the solution, flat out refuse and team up with the others to do the same, until the demand to take them in stops; it’s working pretty well for Hungary and others.
Most of the remaining problems have to do ultimately with the eurozone. It’s partly the UK fault as they prevented the EU from becoming more integrated, even if they didn’t have to participate, purely because the UK wanted to exploit them. In an era where everyone in Europe is switching to debit cards, having one currency still has benefits, but isn’t essential.
Ultimately, what will likely happen the refugees will stop flowing, the eurozone collapses or shrinks. The EU does great and invites in Scotland “northern Ireland merges with Ireland so it by default is in” and little tiny England and Wales become insignificant little nothing’s.
I would say do not create problems in other countries so people flee. See Libya were 50% of the people fled the country after we supported al- Qaeda in deposing Gaddafi.
Other countries were a lot of refugees come from are Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. I could say i see a pattern.
Char,
The large majority of the refugees have been random Muslims from across Asia and Africa. They aren’t fleeing violence, they are just chasing money or an easy lifestyle. The collapse of Libya and Syria’s situation did open up new routes for them, but Libya’s collapse and was Americas fault and Syria’s situation is not entirely but overwhelmingly America’s fault.
In Europe the refugees that stay are mostly from Syria, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan + Eritrea + former colonies of the particular country
That place is called Ukraine/Belarus/Turkey/Maghreb or just Eastern Europe for if you want to place it inside the Union. The UK wages are way to high to function as “Mexico” and if wages would drop so low a very large part of the Brits would migrate to the EU
Devolution. Sometimes we go backwards. Oh well…
Why is it backwards?
Because, don’t you know? Supporting negative yielding euro trash is progressive and the right thing to do™
I’m afraid you’re misinformed. Britain is not and has not been part of the euro. It has an independent currency and central bank.
@Kitty Kat
No shit, but aparently those things are regressive and devolved according to Breta…
The UK is going to be colonized by multinational corporations and the billionaire class who will privatize and deregulate the laws to suit their ends.
There’s so much profit to be made if they can jack up drug prices as high as Americans pay, make people buy private health insurance that costs more than their mortgage, and turn their free ambulance rides into $500 expenses.
I guess it’s only fair that the country that got rich colonizing so much of the world gets a taste of what it’s like to how powerful multinational corporate billionaires make the rules for them. Turn about is only fair play, after all.
And the UK now is not overrun with billionaires and multinational corporations? How exactly will Brexit do what you are claiming?
Same way it always happens
1) they’ll cut taxes for the rich
2) they’ll be “surprised” that the deficit goes up without that tax revenue
3) they’ll cut government services and make people buy it from the companies the rich own. Things like making Brits pay for their drugs.
4) the rich companies will price gouge the consumer
The EU: simply an non-elected government of the bureaucrats, by the bureaucrats and for the bureaucrats. Maybe good for paper-pushers, not so hot for farmers and fisherman as many never knew what hit them. My Italian relatives look forward to the day they follow in the footsteps of Brexit…..arrivederci EU…quItaly…Italeave…Jean Claude Juncker is the poster boy for bureaucratic corruption.
forgot…just an observation; the lady with the gavel at the end that cut off Farage (you must follow the rules and you will enjoy – I added that last part), certainly had a face that…again…as my Italian relatives say … “could cut cheese”.
You said hate! There will be no hate here!
And no flags! Cause flags be hate!
Holy fooken madness.
The ‘hate’ comment she made was stupid, but trying to enforce the rules of decorum of that forum, that’s what she’s supposed to do.
Yes I noticed that curt & vindictive cut-off as well as the bitterness on the faces of the very few who bothered to turn up to listen to Farage’s last hurrah.
He & his mates shuffled off holding their little flags, a bit like naughty school boys playing up at the end of term.
But it was ‘mission accomplished’, freedom from the unelected Eurocrats and all the fraud, repression & totalitarianism they inflicted.
Lets’ hope Italy & other countries with any self-respect left, have the courage to follow.
Farage is a British hero. He deserves to be Knighted. I’ll dash off a letter to Her Maj this very day.
Farage is a real patriot and has taken abuse for too many years. Reminds me of he who must not be named.
From my vantage Farage is part hero, and extremely entertaining.
Unfortunately the British are still stuck with the royal family, the City of London, and various other corruptions.
If i read “Mission Accomplished” i always think of Bush. Long live English vassal status.
ps. I don’t really care who’s vassal they will become but it will be either the US or EU
Zantetsu,
Our president has been saying the same things about our country’s politics since the 1980’s, from what I can remember. I agreed with him then and I agree with him still. What the do nothing left is doing to him and our country is an international disgrace.
Right so. The lady with the gavel clearly hasn’t been listening to Farages speach. By her action she made his point clear. The EU-commission is bullying nations into submission. ‘She’ makes the rules and who doesn’t like it has to leave. So be it. Who wants someone like that for a friend? Respect to the Brexitears.
I doubt she made the rules all by herself. Her job is to enforce them, which she was trying to do.
Your comment is essentially just saying that any time we don’t like rules we can claim that the people who try to enforce them are being fascists. It’s the argument of a 7th grader who doesn’t like having to be quiet in math class.
Factoid:
1) Farage was elected by British citizens as MEP;
2) “lady with the gavel” had exactly zero votes from any EU citizen for her position
OK Javert Chip, so now you are saying that only those who are elected are allowed to enforce rules?
That is awesome. Just try to arrest me for theft now, police. You weren’t elected, so you can’t do it.
True. However quaint some people want to live in a democracy even if it turns out they can’t make more money out of it.
@Javier chip
Normally the chairperson of a parliament is chosen from its members. So as member she was voted for and as chairperson she was voted for.
Italy and Spain would have to first dealt with their huge debts to get out the Euro zone. Right now their “Euro pins” is the only thing preventing their debts to choke them to death.
Spain does not have huge debts. It had a deficit problem
The EU is not a goverment. It is a corporation. A corporation hankering after the same respect as a sovereign country. The illusion tries to – and it appears successfully in your case – mislead with a song they sing together, the media are told to call it an anthem. EU Central bankers of each of the participating sovereign cointries are not required to answer to their own sovereign country government. That means soverignty and control over resources is being managed corpoately by a small greedy club of egos with pockets full of davos bank owners distributing QE to fund their agenda. This agenda I guarantee ignores basic magna carta principles outlining the power structure between people and state. Culture developed by weather and landscape has been steam rolled across the countries …. for what? Pagans taught the Romans a thing or two back then and since paganism is now a recognised religion on the census, maybe in future pagans have a few more lessons to teach.
Italy is not only one of the most indebted nations on the planet, but also has the oldest and fastest aging population in Europe. Entire villages and towns are abandoned in Italy. In short, Italy can’t afford to leave the EU.
Maybe it’s they can’t afford NOT to leave the EU. Why would they be better off with the EU than without it?
Villages and towns are abandoned everywhere and not only in Italy. Farming is every year using less workers and if you are in a region where almost all the work which is not consumpted locally is farming than that region will likely loose people
Watch this (good part starts at 1.33) famous Irish journalist demand the ECB explain why Irish taxpayers are being forced to bailout rich bondholders:
Irish Journalist Vincent Browne Vs. The ECB: “Explain Why The Irish People Have To Bailout Billionaire Bondholders!”
http://dailybail.com/home/irish-journalist-vincent-browne-vs-the-ecb-explain-why-the-i.html
Now repeat this for Greece, Italy, Spain, etc etc.
Add to that how America regime changed Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and thus flooded Europe with super cheap labor driving down wages.
So, now the divorce is done, but apparently the negotiation over future relationship has to continue. The Brit wife has left the house, but still has to follow the EU husband’s rule for another year, and if the EU husband decide to stick it to the Brit wife, technically she doesn’t have a voice. And by the way, she still has to depend on him to an extent for her future livelihood because of… proximity.
Honestly, you’d think this was some kind of bad TV show someone conjured up. But apparently this is reality…
Now I’m waiting for the remainers to get the chance to tell the leave side “I told you so” when the UK economy starts to fall apart. This acrimony is just so… British.
Hello!
Russian and American bachelors. I’d like place an order for a free trade deal. Yes, I know, German car manufacturers won’t be happy and French farmers are going to have a cow…pun intended.
It seems the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU. Oh well, they didn’t know what they had until it’s gone.
Ta Ta for now.
“And by the way, she still has to depend on him to an extent for her future livelihood because of…”
The UK will become a safe haven for EU citizen’s savings which suffer from the ECB’s -zero interest rates policy. Money will flow from the EU to the UK, which makes the UK a better place to invest than the EU.
Just my 2 cents of thought.
If you want interest on your money you should go to Venezuela. They pay interest. Your money with interest will likely be worth less than in if you kept it in Euro’s but you did get non-zero interest.
ps. I don’t know if the pound will depriciat against the Euro but it has been overvalued against the Euro for at least 30 years so i find it likely. It has also not been a particular strong currency since the war.It is now 1/6 of what it was in 1950 against the DM
I would imagine that the deutschmark was at a historic all time low against all currencies so soon after WW2 as 1950 so I think you are cherry picking evidence for your latter point.
Do you have any real reason to say that the pound is overvalued versus the euro?
Yes pound prices are often Euro prices. Even for things that are not priced in the single digits
Why is the British economy going to fall apart, and what part of the British economy and society is it going to affect, and in what way?
No one knows what exactly will happen to the British economy. All I am saying is that the polarization will likely be such that there will be people who just hopes Brexit is a massive failure and be praying that the U.K. crawls on hands and knees begging the EU to take them back.
The majority to take the U.K. out wasn’t that big. It’s not like 70% to 80% Of the population wanted to leave.
MCH,
I think you have it backwards. In this day and age the husband has to follow the wife’s rules. Otherwise I agree with your post.
In 300 years we’ll all look back on this and laugh.
Now with the UK “out”, we will enter the stalking phase of the relationship: The UK will be a lot more engaged in whatever “Brussels” say or does than it is with it’s own business. This will be “Brussels” fault as always.
The EU is trying to replace democracy with bureaucracy.
The “scores on the doors” so far are:
Democracy 1
Bureaucracy 0
The “EU” ain’t the only one infected with this evil. What about the “deep state” and the military industrial complex which has invaded all countries. It is not just the purview of the EU, although they are a very big example. Good on the British people for winning yet another (undeclared) war. It is well past time that the evil of globalisation be thwarted as it is killing the planet.
Honestly, democracy is starting to feel a bit overrated. It is basically mob mentality. The EU however is incompetent when it comes to wielding power, because fundamentally they have to cater to the two largest remaining constituents, the French and the Germans. Two country with very opposite mindsets.
I really hope that I am wrong and the democracies around the world can right themselves, but that is looking less likely everyday, what started out as a minor bit of crony capitalism has gone all out to take over all of our economies and the politicians are either beholden to these heads of industries or too busy bribing people with free stuff to get power.
What’s demorca… dermonkeysee? Never heard of it.
– Leaving the EU has one advantage. The EU now no longer can be blamed for all the things that (are about to) go wrong in the UK from now on. Now the voters / people in the UK must blame their own government for things that go “off the rails”.
*That* is the one Brexit outcome that will never happen!!
The only time I voted, ever, (been an expat for nearly 4 decades) was to join the common market way back in the 1970s. It was a good idea back then but was quickly overtaken by ideologues sucking on the money spigot and it has been downhill ever since. Happy to see the country of my birth go sovereign again (shame about the royal family).
The 1975 referendum wasn’t a vote to join the common market, but rather a way of gauging support to carry on with the membership that had already been in effect for two and a half years.
The European Parliament is elected (that’s how Farage got his cushy job and now pension to disrupt it) and the real power seats with the European council that his made of the heads of state of the member countries that also are elected. It looks democratic to me. The unelected bureaucracy is the European Commission and that is not elected in the very same way that civil servants of member countries also aren’t.
The Eu has many problems but it’s also a great peace and cooperation project and it is sad to see the UK leave.
I am guessing the future fonte UK is a booming (City of) London with deregulation and casino capitalism while the rest of the country suffers. Time will tell.
Ubik,
I have many friends who used to work, or still work, in the City of London, and most think Brexit is a bad idea–one that limits their business opportunities, but I agree with you–time will tell.
Capitalism and bureaucracy each coddle their own darlings.
Out of pure curiosity it will be interesting to see :
– trade deal with the US ( juicy things like the NHS etc )
– trade deal with the EU
– British agriculture ( Access of US farmers to Britain’s markets, end of EU agriculture policy in UK etc )
– What will happen in Hollyrood ?
– What will happen in Stormont and in this case what will the Republic do ?
– Is Boris with the hair able to hold on to Tories’ gains in Labourland ?
1) Within 70Y (from 1945 + 3Y) the 300Y British Empire, that rule the
waves and the whole world, is finally free from the shackles of the
EU, with US support.
2) The crown jewel of West Bengal opposed Brexit.
London know how dark the future will be.
3) GB dissection will cont, but the glorious English Premier league replaced it, dominate the whole world. Don’t lose that kingdom because of your crooked refs.
4) France, the most powerful country in Europe, will dominate EU,
sending UK to the back of the line.
You may not have noticed, because it isn’t well reported, that the streets of Paris are in revolt. Not usually a sign of a dominant power.
Petunia,
Great point.
Petunia: as I am half French myself let me explain to you how this works.
There’s always some street protest in Paris. Always. That’s just one of the reasons I hate that city. Nothing new here.
What’s different here is the persistence of these protest in face of all the dirty tricks employed by the government. People outside of France only see the CRS using infiltrators and beating people up but, again, there’s nothing new there. What’s different is how the government is stealthly trying to ruin protesters by dragging them in long and costly legal procedures or making activists they don’t like non-entities on social media on trumped-up charges.
This is stuff every French schoolchild is taught to have belonged to the arsenal of the much hated Vichy government.
These protests have very tangible economic roots: all that GDP growth figures President Macron is flashing under the noses of the Germans is fully paid for by half of the French population that has to deal with that inflation that officially doesn’t exist, cannot share the fruits of the financial boom and has to deal with an increasingly unresponsive State.
Throw on top the usual sprinkling of strikes by government employees (this is normal stuff) and you understand why this stuff is not going away any time soon.
Any extra questions?
I live in flyover country USA, if not for our current president, things might be much the same here as in France. Nobody in flyover America is surprised this is going on in Europe. Can’t wait for the French to vote for Frexit.
– One of the reasons to vote for Brexit was a topic called “immigration”. The british voters wanted to reduce immigration. But recently there was a proposal filed with the UK government that would INCREASE immigration.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51278298
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/01/uk-mulls-wave-of-low-paid-skilled-migrants-to-crush-wages/
– It were european companies that were heavily lobbying the european parliament. The companies wanted to have uniform rules across the EU. Now those companies are going to have to lobby the political establishment in London as well.
Beware of the state of the union.
It might be a poisonous snake bite .
I hope the presidents spends time discussing the state of CA and other liberal bastions. Sure to amuse us all.
Which presidents? And in what forum are you expecting this discussion? What are you even talking about?
Typo, meant: president.
As a long time but former resident of Ca. It is hard to watch. Newer arrivals don’t know any better.
The comments of this EU woman to this great speech reveal the egomanical arrogance of these elitist s. They believe they live up to higher ethical standards and therefore have right to ignore the will of the electorate.
That’s confirmation bias.
France is 70% elec powered by the (goodwill of ) Africans protected by Americans nuclear supplies. When America withdraws military support in mining desert areas – France will actually have to start negotiating with coutries instead of spitting in their faces when they speak. I predict Lux and Brux will disappear in the next 10 years into France.
The US has only a small part in the Union’s Sahel Forever War. Lux is more German than French. Brux is on the other side of the language border. 10 years is way to short for those kind of things and i don’t see why you don’t mention Italy. Historical the Northern part, aka the useful part, has been French. Local dialect was also more French than Italian. And political France and Italy are more on the same frequency.
The UK should be a client state of the USA. Other than financial services and the Queen it is an insignificant low productivity country of no import.
The north of England will continue to fade, due to the uneducated masses that live there, similar to what happens in place like West Virginia. Scotland will divorce itself from the UK soon enough and the remaining rump state will be rather pedestrian after that.
Jeffrey not sure what planet you live on however it is quite the opposite. Trump is negotiating the release of USA from the historical contracts which have bound it to the UK, using disclosure and the numerous hidden patents related to space as a bargaining chip. Rumours also admiralty law in the US to be replaced with common law. The UK is commonwealth connected country with some member countries with no historical links to Britain choosing to join for the camraderie and sharing best practice in country, coastline and resource management.
One interesting observation is that a lot of the comments are bi-polar: either leavers or remainers talking about the various positives and negatives of leaving
What if something bigger than that is going on? What if we are returning to the populism of the late sixties and toxic politics of the seventies that did severe damage to the economic system (and stocks, interest rates and everything along with it)?
Brexit has happened during the “good times” and so has the Trump presidency which looks set to continue into its second year
The EU has very serious challenges to face and if it doesn’t change, and become a high functioning fiscal and political union, it will disintegrate .
We are ALL going to have a big hangover when we realise history is simply repeating itself and Investor’s, just like the masses who caused these two calamities to occur, don’t realise it yet until it is too late.
*second term it should say
In no way is it clear that Trump will win a second term.
Toxic policies of the seventies? You mean the oil crises? I don’t think it was a policy outside Opec. More something that happened.
I mean here’s a brief summary, but sort of surprising that I have to summarise it:
The war in Vietnam that dragged on to 1975, along side war in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Portugal and the Indo-Pakistani war of 1971. I mean hello , the Yom Kippur conflict that has sowed the seeds of hatred in that region that last to this day
War in Lebanon, Tanzania and along the Sahara.
Then think local conflicts – the bombing and uprising in Canada by the FLQ in Quebec , the mass murder of students in South Africa
Yes you mentioned the oil crisis that eventually led to the worst decade for stock returns since the Great Depression and also set the scene for the vitriolic hatred Iran would have for America after their revolution in 1979, which lasts to today.
Stagflation, economic growth poor, rising interest rates and racial riots and tensions across the world.
I mean the Far East ? Mao zedong didn’t die until 1976 and China was in dire straights .
Watergate , Japan overtaking the US as an industrial power, Idi amin, assassinations etc etc etc
Definitely not a golden decade and one of great change for the world economically and politically . I suspect we are in about 1968-1969 and most people have no clue what is actually coming down the pike
– The US economy is already in a recession. Just look at the shrinking US Trade Deficit that’s happening right now under our noese. There are more countries in a recession (UK, Canada, Australia, China, ……. ) but then one shouldn’t be looking at that thing called GDP. GDP is a (VERY) flawed metric.
– Yes, there is something larger going with the UK, US, Canada, etc. We are seeing the rise of populism (in the style of the 1930s) and Farage is one of those populists. And it’s no surprise because people are “unhappy”.
Although not to but pick, Canada hasn’t really succumbed to populism yet given that Trudeau managed to win a second term- probably only developed country in world holding out from the descending into populism trend
– It’s just a matter of time before we’ll see a canadian populist who is going to blame all the usual suspects (immigrants, NAFTA, etc…. ) for all the problems canadians are experiencing.
– But one MAJOR reason why people are “unhappy” is the “weak” economic conditions in combination with (very) high levels of debt.
– Just watch what happens when the canadian housing bubble deflates in earnest. And I do see one person who could become the canadian populist.
– “Households in Vancouver are going broke megafast”
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/greater-vancouver-households-are-going-broke-mega-fast
– No surprise after such a run-up in mortgage debt and house prices.
– If the US economy gets hit then Trump won’t get a second term. We saw something similar in 2008. The US economy took a “sharp downturn” and the Democrats replaced the Republicans.
– Based on what I have read in the sixties and seventies the western world was still very prosperous. Much more properous than now. The main difference is that right now debt level are much much higher. And that simply rules out inflation. We already had the (credit) inflation since the year say 1980.
– If your bet is that (price) inflation is coming (again) then think again. It’s likely that we will see DEFLATION (first).
“Testify” Nigel!
Always loved his eloquent speeches. He ripped those EU parasites a new orifice every time he spoke.
Divorces aren’t just about assets and children. There is the social divorce – who gets which friends? Those details are going to be interesting to watch.
British politicians are almost always awesome speakers. American politicians generally look like dunces in comparison. It’s just a fact.
I remember when it was Bush and Tony Blair. One sounded intelligent and inspiring, the other … was a dullard from Texas.
And now we have Trump. Yeesh.
And we also have uninspiring left-wing dotards that long for state control and group think.
One of the best things about mr Trump is that he makes the Left go crazy every time he does something or says something.
he exposes them them for the worthless lot that they are.
Zantetsu:
Would love to see any American president in forum: “Prime Minister’s Questions!”
(Or any other of the main stream pols we support here)
I do understand the role of “comity” but sometimes we just have to “Let her rip!”
You’ll notice I didn’t even mention Dan Quayle. That would have been too easy.
I likes the fat ass , with his EU smirk, and his Filet Mignon and Lobster pot-belly pouring over his belt in an avalanche …….
Bye bye
Be free and may Brexit shine as a light for all of you
Kalergi’s map was never sure if UK would join in. For the next episode in the story see Kalergi. Is there a next chapter?
The EU parliament behaved like all bureaucratic organizations: grew to fill a void as it regulated (some things) that people wanted regulated.
As this mission was accomplished, it kept growing and protecting its authority and size. It then became a costly parasite.
Keeping a trade union should be a big plus.
A common currency could be acceptable IF they made everybody follow the rules. If not, forget it. They break the rules all the time in reality.
Other than that, it seems a waste of time and money, as far as the UK is concerned, anyway.
Costly in what way? The spending on the EU bureaucracy is peanuts and it is not if most of what they do would not be done and paid for without the EU.
Ask a Brit fish boat captain or average Joe Greek how much the EU bureaucrats cost.
what is a Joe Greek?
Fishing boats have not a problem with the EU but with nature. They want to catch more than nature can support. EU was just the boggy man that made them fish less.
There is also the division of the quota but that is the small problem and done reasonable fair.
The Rule of Ponzi is first one out … escapes with fortune (relatively) intact.
The entire Eurozone enterprise has a certain air of re-fighting World War Two about it. What if Adolf had kept the panzers for parades and street theater and simply introduced the euro as a universal currency and expanded bureaucracy, instead? It’s unfortunate Adolf was too stupid, too steeped in the life in the trenches and regimental headquarters. His Europe then otherwise resemble the Belgian super-nanny state of today … with properly curved bananas and more intact German cities.
As was Germany in the 1930s, the EU is a Ponzi. Without endless supply of ‘new money’ from the (giant) banks the enterprise falls apart. How is this affordable? Near-zero (manipulated) interest rates and relatively cheap fuel supply.
A Ponzi is necessary b/c of the EU’s cosmic, car-centric wastefulness; like the other ‘modern’ economies, Europe cannot ‘earn’ anything but must cheat, instead. In our onrushing ‘Age of Less’ there will be diminished flows toward the center, with Ponzis failing apart as a consequence. This in turn will the reduction of polyglot geographic empires into constituent statelets as can be seen in Spain, Italy and on the British islands themselves.
The Brits have cast off the lifeboat. Next out the door are Italy and Greece then the other PIIGS. The ‘City’ will move itself to Paris (and when the riots become nasty enough) to Frankfurt. After that, the magic 8-ball becomes murky. Frankfurt (and London) are at sea level. We all know what that means.
In what way makes this the EU different from any other first world state?
The future of the EU is bright, soon they will have unified European Military, and a few more EU members on the way, after Erdogan is gone, perhaps Turkey may be a candidate once again (in a decade or so). Trade links with China to the east will only grow closer.
Little England will be mired in austerity for the foreseeable future. A once mighty empire, reduced to a beggar nation, an offshore safe haven for the world’s plutocrats.
Yes. I am sure slovaks and estonians will be very eager to fight for German business interests at the orders of an unelected bureaucrat in Brussels.
It ain’t going to work.
Especially considering the joke of existing militaries in Europe. Germany has less than 300 functioning and modern main battle tanks in their entire army. The Pennsylvania National Guard has more armor.
And several other EU members are already contemplating their own exits.
The people of Europe are wonderful but that supranational government is ripe for reform and improvement. The unelected bureaucracy and single currency have not brought them growth, prosperity or a bright future. Instead they have a weak currency, no interest on savings, massive debt imbalances and general stagnation.
The beauty of democracy and freedom of speech is that it acts like a genetic algorithm, accelerating the evolution of knowledge and weeding out stupidity. Individuals who are free to try different approaches are able to pick those that work for them. Sure, there will be propaganda and misinformation and foolishness, and the gullible will always suffer for their foolishness. The role of the smart elites should not be to prescribe solutions, but to teach everyone skeptical critical thought so more people can sniff out and avoid the BS. This is because the elites are corruptible and as prone to exploiting their fellow man as anyone.
As it stands right now the BS has infected the whole EU and the entire enterprise smells.
“The beauty of democracy and freedom of speech is that it acts like a genetic algorithm, accelerating the evolution of knowledge and weeding out stupidity.”
That is the next thing Britain needs, freedom of speech.
The beauty of democracy
The fatal flaw of democracy is the inevitable emergence of demagogues determined to undermine it. Democracies only survive on the ability of its institutions to prevent demagogues from unduly manipulating the will of the people, and we have seen that there are standard techniques for defeating those institutions. As Goebbels said, it works in any country. There are very few functioning democracies left, and their number is declining.
We historians have known since the 19th century that the very existence of middle-class democracy is an aberration of history, and that the destiny of human civilization, if it manages to survive, is to be ruled by oppressive totalitarianism. It’s not what people want, but there’s lots of ways to coerce them and otherwise talk them into it.
Your ‘genetic algorithm’ meme, by the way, is absurd.
Deep human instinct demands of our psychology that our tribe have an alpha male, a tribal leader, a demogogue, an autocracy, a dictator, a madman.
Democracy has been the only form of government that has shown any effect at slowing this natural instinctive impulse, but it’s only sometimes effective, many times it fails.
The only way to solve this problem may eventually be to just submit to an algorithm or AI. An AI which can understand each citizen’s wants, needs, and fears and objectively craft policy to do the most good. Humans might just not be capable of self-governance without inevitably falling into to autocratic/fascist trap.
If you look at the arc of history, that is true for most of the time. The only question is whether there can be evolution enough to have a sustained middle class so that a country can be stable enough over the long run to survive as a democracy. Or will things devolve back. My guess is that eventually nation states will have to go…. but that will be centuries down the road.
One could argue that China in the early 2000 was on that trajectory, but growth has slowed and Xi had made his move far too early. Totalitarianism can work, the problem though is that there is too much of a dependency on having a “good” ruler or at least a benign one.
Well, Turkey, it is the US that was the driving force behind a Turkish EU membership, something that the Europeans do not like and thus have stalled things accordingly.
Will be interesting to see how keen the French are to keep the border at the Channel closed now that it will turn into EU’s external border. Will the French allow migrants trying to reach the UK to cross the Channel or not ?
No need for the French to keep the border closed. The easy way for anybody that want to leave the UK is trough Northern Ireland.
ps. It is not up to the Mexican to keep America Southern border closed so why would it be for the French. The EU is not the DDR
*the EU is not DDR*
:) ha, that one really made me laugh!!
Is it not, is it really not, dear Holmes.
Wolf has many posts on the futility of managing the euro the way they actually do; not how it was sold to the euro peasants.
Good luck with a euro military.
If I had a chance to hold euros or pounds I take euros.
“Power without accountability… Please remove your flag” and you’re in England or more specifically the British Parliament? Hmm…
This took place in the EU parliament.
1) Paris on extended Xmas strike again, hard to get to the airport.
2) Macron is tightening his grip on France, thanks useless yellow shirts idiots. This year 2019 – no bonfire flames !
3) They will not bend his will. Macron is the most powerful leader in
Europe.
4) That’s why he is becoming dangerous. US left Europe in a vacuum
and US dominance in the ME on decline.
5) Macron happily fill US shoes.
The Brexiters look fit. At end as Teacher is saying to remove flags the camera pans to a cheering Unionista with a big belly. There you go!
Guy Van Hofstat (for that is he), has put on a fair bit of weight this year.
But don’t get worried pips, he ain’t gonna let Italy go. If Italians went, then they would then want to tax his italian wineyard (yes, good old Guy is an eager agriculturalist and spends all his time making wine :). Ciao bello! Ciao and adio!
Sorry, me again.
For you who are not satisfied with reasonably solid and measured commentariat here but need some sadness instead, just go to FT, any article related to Brexit, and see tons of very sad people comment (I think they are called saddoes, it’s a kind of a cult). Full of scientific and realistic commentary.
Damn I am glad I gave up subscription there years ago.
Big$Mike will win the super bowl.
Thanks, Wolf.
I ran “Nigel Farage’s Dramatic Final Speech at the European Parliament” through DuckDuck Go and (shudder) Google, the later for the first hundred responses.
“Wolf Street” appeared, high up, on both search engines.
But, except for one story in the Washington Post, their were no referrals to any of the major U.S. newspapers or TV networks.
It’s no wonder to me (and I must say a source of personal satisfaction) that our so-called “Mainline media” is in decline.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/267047/americans-trust-mass-media-edges-down.aspx
Britain did well when her navies controlled the World, could feed herself, produced enough coal + north sea NG/oil to heat her homes, and citizens could look forward to having jobs. Obviously, these situations were not historically normal, or concurrent, but cycled over the last few decades and declining with Thatcher’s time of open class warfare.
What do they have to offer now? Banking scams and a few tax free islands?
A quick search produced these fun facts:
Britain produces approx 60% of the food she consumes.
“UK manufacturing used to account for over 50% of the size of the economy. Now, manufacturing accounts for around 12-15%. …”
“The service sector dominates the UK economy, contributing around 78% of GDP; the financial services industry is particularly important and London is the world’s largest financial centre.”
The bright spot is Debt to GDP which is 20% lower than the US level. Unfortunately, the GDP foundation of both countries is a wee bit bogus.
It doesn’t look good to me. If I would hazard a guess, in Britain the working folk will be poorer, opportunities will decline, and class divides will become even more entrenched. Add to that additional scapegoating to shift blame elsewhere. Meanwhile, the wealth will continue to funnel upwards and outside her borders.
Sound familiar? It should.
The little flag waving show is about as meaningless as a jet flyover at a sporting event. Whoopee. Ain’t we grand? Aren’t we proud? Wow.
As a Brit would say, “It’s all shite”.
It’s a major stage in Britain’s long-term decline and eventual blight, so enjoy it while you can.
Entropy, dear Holmes, entropy.
Or, to use the correct PC term; “great equalization through globalization”.
Everyone will be affected just the same.
I never understand people who think that services-dominated economies are a bad thing.
I don’t need to be a construction worker because someone already made the building I live in in the 1960’s.
I don’t need to make the shoes I wear because someone living an almost slave labor existence in Bangladesh is doing it (for now, and eventually they will be replaced by robots who do it even cheaper).
I don’t need to grow the food I eat because the agricultural industry has already, through decades of investment and work, become so efficient that a few farmers can make all the food I need with just a few hours work.
What am I left to do? Provide services like entertainment, banking, all the organizational stuff that allows others to live a comfortable, regular life (in my case, writing computer code).
That is not a problem, that is a mature social ecosystem.
Most of the service economy has elevated activities such as insurance (health, etc.), “servant” occupations (low value add), and wonderful people like ambulance chasing lawyers (really- check the stats).
That’s one reason why it’s better to manufacture actual physical goods.
The UK has now North Sea wind but if you live nextdoor to a much stronger power you end up as a raw material supplier if you are in the unlucky position to have raw materials.
As my Scot kin say,Aye to the Roundheads south of the Calidonia and be mindful of the feisty lass from Holyrood with her hand full of the flag of St Andrew and her gaze longingly cast toward the Continent.
And Good luck to Scotland, may they have freedom one day, in the EU. ;)
I consider the UK to be an ideal destination should a global crisis occur.
If you’re rich then nothing beats NZ.
I’ve lived there; it’s nice but very remote and quite small in just about every way. They have some unsightly social problems just like everywhere. There is a strong preponderance of common sense and stoicism there that you don’t often find in the USA.
Sorry I didn’t mean to imply that common sense and stoicism were a social problem. Those were meant to be three separate points.
It would be nice if Wolfe’s comments system were not so rudimentary, and allowed edits within the first minute or two of making a post, or until there is a reply.
AGREE zan–,,,;; how some ever, just a suggestion: try to sober up enough before you comment, as I do, so that you don’t need to edit,,,
works most of the time, and the rest of the time just let it go,eh
The UK is a civilized society, like Japan an island nation with a unique language. Is NZ going to burn up like Australia? I want the best culture I can get, not a small caretaker government for a bunch of rich American preppers, who couldn’t stop one Aussie skin head. Police states like Singapore can turn ugly as well. Then one day the law and order regime turns against you.
Hi Ambrose, have you ever even been to New Zealand? It’s very different from Australia. It’s a much greener and wetter country (although they do have their drier spots and their drier months).
New Zealand may break apart in an earthquake or experience a major volcanic eruption, but it’s not going to burn.
I don’t honestly know what the rest of your rambling is about. But NZ is very much a law and order country.
Only if you are loaded. The point of Brexit could indeed be some squillionaires setting up a sustainable* island fortress for when The Jackpot happens. There is enough land, enough tech, enough defence and enough of an infrastructure for a few thousand very wealthy people to live very comfortable lives. Assuming of course that they manage to get along and don’t bring “the family atomics” with them, like the Russians.
*) Once the population has been trimmed back a bit – but the NHS, substance abuse and “Universal Benefits” will gradually fix that problem.
What is the status of the separatist movement in Scotland?
Same as ever, waiting for further funding to arrive from, erm, this place to the south.
“The rest is detail?”
I’ve heard that’s where the devil is.
Yes, most definitely.
1) Europe need Greece, because Crete control the flow from the Dardanelles, Port Said and Latakia Syria. Greece effectively “Corke” Turkish export and influence in Syria and Libya.
2) Germany invest in Pittsburgh Pa, spreading its industrial might all over the US and Canada.
3) UK tried to impose its will on Putin, but Germany like his energy.
4) Both Trump & Putin retard the rise of Turkish power and the Iranian influence in the ME, along with Germany.
5) In order to protect their limited boundaries, Europe will have to be in bed with UK for a long long time, because France is not powerful enough, cannot be trusted and ==> to balance France rising power, with UK help.
6) Choking UK in 2020’s will have similar implications as the undeclared economic war against Germany 100 years ago, during the 1920’s.
“The UK tried to impose its will”
And the funny part is that now the English get to realize that they are just little people living on a wet and dreary island and that “their will” is worth about 2 pesos.
Good morning England. Say goodbye to Scotland and realize that the Germans are laughing a the idea of what’s left of the UK after this is done imposing their will on anyone. Wait till the English try to force the Scots to stay and then realize that with the EU now on the Scots side there is not a dang thing the English can do …. except to prepare in their own incompetent English way for the unification of Ireland, also in the EU.
I can’t stand the English. It goes way back, at least as far as 1776. :)
Thus, I’ve been greatly enjoying watching this. Watching the English shoot themselves in both feets, and all because they are so bigoted, stuck-up, and well, just so English that they can’t stand the notion of living near a Polish Plumber. What a reason to trash an economy! Now we get to watch the comedy as all the unicorns disappear at midnight.
My guess is that Farang is living in France within 2 years because he’ll be persona non grata to all the people who only understand too late that their jobs were tied to the EU and that trade deals take forever to negotiate. Especially when the Brits are now counting on Trump and Trump is about to lose an election by a historic landslide margin. Talk about tying your raft to a sinking garbage scow.
you, sir, lack common sense!
You gotta give Farage, and UKIP, credit for his tenacity. Politics is divisive and all sides are corruptEd as far as I’m concerned but it sure is fun to watch him mock those stuffy EC beaucrats in parliament.
I was in Amsterdam the morning after the Brexit vote and I remember watching the return on Dutch TV and I was shocked but not surprised.
FREEDOM…Well the UK isn’t very free but at least it now is free of one more overlord. This isn’t about hate of people but hate of a oppressive system that takes away your individual rights.
Free in a year..not ‘now’.
If I understand correctly..
The popular vote was anti-immigrant but also an expression of the divide between rich London and poorer Britain. Farage then is a rich Londoner that could not really keep up with globalization or change in general much like the larger constituency.
Farage also owes Verhofstad (“far court city’)’s doing. The Belgians have been amping federalism more than any other including France. The EU should now consider moving East. Away from London and towards its new center of gravity
Better yet toward a more distributed flatter organization. With all modern technology it is no longer necessary to be able to rub up against one another in Brussels. Simply teleconference. It is cheaper and more efficient and better for the environment. Courts only amass luxury and turn into corrupt rentier mistakes.
If everybody has to deal with the others in and from their home city you don’t get that people go out to strike a deal for themselves abroad and then go home to screw the rules and leave the bill to the others. Kind of.
– Ask yourself: Would the “Brexit” make a significant difference for the large mountain of british Household debts ? Is B(l)o-Jo going to introduce legislation that would force british banks to write off say 10, 20 or say 30% of all the Household debt in the UK ?
You don’t legislate a depreciation of a currency.