Here’s my Powell Cocktail, Not Quite in his Own Words by Wolf Richter • Jan 31, 2024 • 147 Comments It’s premature to think rate cuts are right around the corner, we haven’t decided anything yet, it’s meeting by meeting, but in March no way Jose, I mean, that’s not my base case.
Wow, Fed’s Statement Pushes Back against Rate-Cut Mania and End-of-QT Mania. Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT to Continue as Planned by Wolf Richter • Jan 31, 2024 • 134 Comments Ok, so that push-back in the statement was unexpected.
“Effective Immediately,” Fed Shuts Down Arbitrage Opportunity with the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) by Wolf Richter • Jan 24, 2024 • 134 Comments This is funny, in a central-bank kind of way.
Fed’s Balance Sheet QT, Liabilities: RRPs -$1.78 trillion from Peak, to $590 Billion, but Reserves Rise to $3.6 Trillion as Liquidity Drains and Shifts by Wolf Richter • Jan 19, 2024 • 106 Comments RRPs heading to their normal level of zero. And it’s time to talk about the revived Standing Repo Facility.
Fed Reports Operating Loss of $114 billion for 2023, as Interest Expense Blows Out by Wolf Richter • Jan 12, 2024 • 125 Comments On top of whatever unrealized losses ($1.3 trillion in Q3) from its securities holdings. But losses don’t matter to the Fed.
The BTFP Will Expire in March: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr by Wolf Richter • Jan 9, 2024 • 80 Comments Last remaining bailout tool from the March bank panic goes away. Current arbitrage may have been a factor in shutting down this baby.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.28 Trillion from Peak, to $7.66 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021. Banks Got an Arbitrage Opportunity when Yields Dropped by Wolf Richter • Jan 4, 2024 • 81 Comments The Fed has shed 31% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE.
Fed Members Fan Out to Douse Raging Rate-Cut Fires by Wolf Richter • Dec 18, 2023 • 286 Comments So far, vice chair Williams, Mester, Bostic twice already, and even Goolsbee who accused markets of wishful thinking.
What Powell Said About Continuing QT amid Rate Cuts, RRPs Going to Zero, Reserves Dropping to Magic Line in the Sand by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2023 • 237 Comments How far can QT go? Quite a bit further.
Fed Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees Three Rate Cuts in 2024, QT to Continue by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2023 • 314 Comments Lowers GDP growth projections and PCE inflation projections for 2024.
