Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 107 Comments At the long end, the bond market is nervous.
30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 169 Comments The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.
The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 137 Comments Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.
30-Year & 20-Year Treasury Yields Back over 5%, 10-Year over 4.5%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage Rates Back over 7% by Wolf Richter • May 24, 2025 • 149 Comments Will the bond market eventually wake up and scare the bejesus out of Congress? Is it already rubbing its eyes?
Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Debt-to-Income, and Credit Limits in Q1 2025: Our Drunken Sailors & their Credit Cards by Wolf Richter • May 20, 2025 • 82 Comments With the free money gone, the hangover is getting worked off.
10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2025 • 73 Comments Despite the rumors during bond turmoil, foreigners kept buying Treasuries and the “basis trade” didn’t blow, but the “swap spread trade” made a mess.
Despite Turmoil in Stocks: Financial Conditions, Financial Stress, Junk-Bond Spreads Still in La-La Land or Barely Exiting by Wolf Richter • Apr 21, 2025 • 128 Comments These are aspects the Fed is considering in its monetary policy; that type of discussion is part of its meeting minutes.
The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Apr 18, 2025 • 152 Comments Mortgage rates are higher in relationship to the 10-year Treasury yield than they were most of the time over the past 50 years. There are reasons.
10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back to February’s 4.5%, Yield Curve Re-Un-Inverts, Mortgage Rates Back at 7% by Wolf Richter • Apr 12, 2025 • 147 Comments The aggressive Bash-Down by the White House of long-term Treasury yields and the dollar since January worked. Until it didn’t.
10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back Brutally, Stocks Go Crazy, S&P 500 Spikes 8.5% then Plunges Back in 1 Hour on Fake News by Wolf Richter • Apr 7, 2025 • 131 Comments Treacherous markets. But they did seem to catch their breath finally. Stocks are due for a big bounce.
