Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone on Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7% by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2024 • 139 Comments The 10-year yield surged by 60 basis points in five weeks but may run out of steam by about right now.
Treasury Buybacks: Update on the Bond Market Bloodletting by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2024 • 62 Comments Among the jewels: Treasury Dept. paid 88 cents on the dollar to buy back 10-year Treasury notes sold at auction Aug. 2020 at a record-low yield of 0.677%.
Mortgage Rates Explode to 6.82%, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.20%, +55 Basis Points since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 21, 2024 • 175 Comments How the yield curve is un-inverting shocks real-estate folks who’d promised rate cuts would push down mortgage rates even further.
Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 9, 2024 • 135 Comments Fed is seen as deprioritizing inflation fight, while a tsunami of supply heads for markets.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 5, 2024 • 138 Comments The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
The Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut: Why Have Longer-Term Yields Risen since the Rate Cut? Already Priced in? Inflation Concerns as Policy Loosens in a Decent Economy? by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2024 • 156 Comments Mortgage rates also ticked up.
The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Treasury Department Aggressively Pushes Down Long-Term Interest Rates via Shift to T-bill Issuance and Bond Buybacks by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2024 • 168 Comments But buybacks occur at huge losses for investors. Today it bought back a 1.25% 20-year bond for 66 cents on the dollar.
CRE Gets Strangled, Corporate Bankruptcies Highest since 2010, but Junk Bonds & Broad Financial Conditions in La-La-Land by Wolf Richter • Jul 22, 2024 • 89 Comments The big divergence.
There’s a Boom in Distressed Debt Exchanges to Deal with Leveraged-Loan Defaults by Wolf Richter • May 13, 2024 • 33 Comments An alternative to a restructuring in bankruptcy court.
