Everything Bubble

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7%

by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 96 Comments

Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further on Surging Longer-Term Yields: 10-Year Yield Now Higher than All Shorter Yields. Mortgage Rates Resurge

by Wolf Richter • Dec 14, 2024 • 114 Comments

Fed cut by 75 basis points since September while 10-year Treasury yield rose by 75 basis points to 4.40%, as Bond Market frets about Inflation & Supply.

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop

by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 48 Comments

Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.

Credit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” & Risk Premiums, but Corporate & CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher

by Wolf Richter • Dec 9, 2024 • 45 Comments

Loosey-goosey financial conditions don’t mean low borrowing costs. They just mean narrow yield spreads.

Everybody Should Get Used to these Mortgage Rates, Says Fannie Mae CEO: Mortgage Rates, 10-Year Treasury Yields, QT, and Spreads

by Wolf Richter • Dec 5, 2024 • 62 Comments

“Current mortgage rates and Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2025 rates are well in line with rates over the past several decades.”

US Treasury Debt Held by Foreign Investors: Ravenous Appetite for Juicy Yields, Juicy Compared to their Stuff at Home

by Wolf Richter • Nov 18, 2024 • 79 Comments

Will foreign investors buy the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt? Increasingly crucial question. But yield solves demand problems.

Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2024 • 205 Comments

Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.

Fed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $155 Billion as QT Drains Liquidity, Nothing Blown Up Yet. SOFR & TGCR Spreads Begin to Move

by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2024 • 62 Comments

“Such temporary rate pressures can be price signals” that help markets redistribute liquidity to where it’s needed most: Fed’s Logan.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone on Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7%

by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2024 • 139 Comments

The 10-year yield surged by 60 basis points in five weeks but may run out of steam by about right now.

Treasury Buybacks: Update on the Bond Market Bloodletting

by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2024 • 62 Comments

Among the jewels: Treasury Dept. paid 88 cents on the dollar to buy back 10-year Treasury notes sold at auction Aug. 2020 at a record-low yield of 0.677%.

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