Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis. Multifamily Delinquencies Soar to 7.1% by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2025 • 49 Comments Commercial real estate (CRE) loans on office and multifamily properties got further bludgeoned in October.
Banks Borrow Record $50 Billion at Fed’s New SRF amid Hot Repo Rates, ON RRPs Spike to $52 Billion in Opposite Direction by Wolf Richter • Oct 31, 2025 • 22 Comments Month-End Liquidity-Palooza: Banks finally used the new & improved SRF the way the Fed has been exhorting them to use it to keep a lid on repo rates.
Repo Market Brushfires Doused by Banks’ Use of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) by Wolf Richter • Oct 20, 2025 • 76 Comments The new & improved SRF begins to serve its purpose of allowing the Fed to push QT as far as possible without blowing anything up, unlike last time.
Is it Really Different this Time? by Wolf Richter • Oct 10, 2025 • 190 Comments AI is huge. But so is the mania of hype, hocus-pocus deals, and piles of real money fortified by leverage that caused stock prices to explode.
“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI by Wolf Richter • Sep 30, 2025 • 120 Comments At these valuations, “exit hurdles become exceptionally large.”
Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Jump after Rate Cut, Yield Curve Steepens, Bond Market Gets Edgy by Wolf Richter • Sep 21, 2025 • 106 Comments Bond market reacts to inflation expectations and supply of new bonds, not the Fed’s policy rates.
Scenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2025 • 116 Comments The Treasury market counts on the tariffs to slow the supply of new debt and could throw a hissy-fit if they end while the Fed cuts rates into accelerating inflation.
Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 107 Comments At the long end, the bond market is nervous.
30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2025 • 169 Comments The bond market’s reaction to the inflationary environment, to fears of a lax Fed, and to a Mississippi River of new debt.
The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 137 Comments Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.
