Consumer

Serious Delinquency Rates for Subprime & Prime Auto Loans, their Balances, and their Burden: Our Drunken Sailors in Q2

Subprime is, as always, in trouble, which is why it’s subprime – high-risk-high-profit auto sales & lending that can entail steep losses.

Taxpayers and investors are mostly on the hook this time, not banks.

The long-defaulted federal student loans come out of the shadows of government forbearance.

Consumer spending growth accelerated from low levels. Federal government spending drops for second quarter in a row.

Wages & salaries rose at a solid pace, but Social Security payments returned to trend after a spike in April due to policy changes.

Looking at the nuts and bolts, we see that the spending goes on, even if the mood is ultra-sour.

After inflation, “real” yields on money-market funds are near 2%, and households kept pouring cash into them. But CDs lost ground.

No signs yet of tariffs getting passed through to consumers, neither in durable goods nor in clothing and footwear.

With the free money gone, the hangover is getting worked off.

Something rare occurred: Auto loan balances fell despite highest new & used vehicle sales in years. More people paid cash to dodge interest rates?

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