The Data Mess. Markets, Interest Rates & Inflation and There’s Still No Recession; Risks of Financialization & Overleverage by Wolf Richter • Aug 26, 2024 • 87 Comments Wolf Richter on Thoughtful Money.
The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year by Wolf Richter • Aug 24, 2024 • 196 Comments For the Treasury market, Powell’s speech was a nothingburger. A Sep rate cut has been priced in since the Aug 2 jobs report.
Inventory of New Completed Houses Surges to Highest since 2009, Triple from 2 Years Ago, Exactly What’s Needed to Bring Down Prices across the Housing Market by Wolf Richter • Aug 23, 2024 • 106 Comments Sales of new houses jumped, fueled by lower prices, big incentives, and mortgage-rate buydowns. Homebuilders are taking share from homeowners.
Here Comes the Inventory of Vacant Homes while Buyers’ Strike Continues despite Drop in Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Aug 22, 2024 • 244 Comments Active listings explode in the metros of Tampa, Orlando, San Diego, Denver, Seattle, and others.
Home Buyers’ Strike Expands even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since May 2023. Surging Refis to Speed Up the Fed’s QT by Wolf Richter • Aug 21, 2024 • 86 Comments People are waiting for rates and prices to drop, while supply keeps rising.
Nonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months through March Revised Down by 818,000, to 2.08 Million Jobs Created, from 2.90 Million by Wolf Richter • Aug 21, 2024 • 90 Comments 173,500 payroll jobs added on average per month in 12 months, instead of 242,000, but above 2018-2019 average of 171,900: preliminary annual benchmark revisions.
Banks Still Stuck with $13 Billion in Risky Loans from Musk’s LBO of Twitter 22 Months Ago, Possibly the Longest Hung Deal of this Size Ever by Wolf Richter • Aug 20, 2024 • 98 Comments The banks could sell the leveraged loans, but only at a big loss. Some have already written them down by hundreds of millions of dollars.
QT Continues: ECB Balance Sheet: -€2.39 Trillion or -27% from Peak, to €6.45 Trillion, Lowest since August 2020 by Wolf Richter • Aug 20, 2024 • 41 Comments Combined QT by the Fed and ECB removed $4.4 trillion in liquidity so far. A couple of years ago, this would have been an unimaginable feat.
The Only Thing Pushing Up Retail Sales Is Ecommerce. Brick-and-Mortar Sales Have Stagnated for 2 Years by Wolf Richter • Aug 19, 2024 • 58 Comments Ecommerce keeps crushing brick-and-mortar retailers, except in autos, gasoline, and food, but even there, the tide is slowly turning.
China Obscures Stock Market Fund Flows by Foreign Investors: Another Effort to Prop Up the Relentless Long-Term Money Pit by Wolf Richter • Aug 19, 2024 • 69 Comments Since the peak in 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index is down 52%.
