Wolf Richter

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.25%-4.50%, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, Sees Higher Inflation, Higher “Longer-Run” Rates. QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Dec 18, 2024 • 247 Comments

Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.

The Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half

by Wolf Richter • Dec 17, 2024 • 111 Comments

It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.

Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending

by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 83 Comments

Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Nov. 2024: Condo Prices Drop to New 3-Year Low, Single-Family Prices Stable at -17% from Peak in March 2022

by Wolf Richter • Dec 16, 2024 • 39 Comments

By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg.

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further on Surging Longer-Term Yields: 10-Year Yield Now Higher than All Shorter Yields. Mortgage Rates Resurge

by Wolf Richter • Dec 14, 2024 • 114 Comments

Fed cut by 75 basis points since September while 10-year Treasury yield rose by 75 basis points to 4.40%, as Bond Market frets about Inflation & Supply.

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop

by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 48 Comments

Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.

The ECB Steps Away from Bond Market Entirely, Speeds Up Bond QT even as it Cut Rates

by Wolf Richter • Dec 13, 2024 • 23 Comments

It already reduced its balance sheet by €2.48 trillion and completed its loan QT to near-zero.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Prices Drop in All 33 Big Metros, Most in Austin, Tampa, Dallas, San Antonio

by Wolf Richter • Dec 12, 2024 • 136 Comments

19 Metros below 2022 peaks: Austin -22%, San Francisco -10%, Phoenix -9%, San Antonio -8%, Denver -7%, Salt Lake City -6%, Sacramento -6%, Portland -6%, Dallas -6%, Seattle -5%, Honolulu -5%…

PPI, “Core” PPI, “Core Services” PPI Inflation Much Hotter after Whopper Up-Revisions Going Back Months

by Wolf Richter • Dec 12, 2024 • 80 Comments

The problem is in services, which account for 67% of PPI. But goods prices are re-accelerating too. The whole inflation scenario has changed.

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: CPI & “Core” CPI Accelerate Further Month-to-Month, 3-Month Averages Heat Up for 4th Month. Year-over-Year, CPI Accelerates for 2nd Month

by Wolf Richter • Dec 11, 2024 • 64 Comments

On re-spiking motor vehicle prices, jumping food & gasoline prices. But housing inflation backs off.

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