Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal, Hungary, Bulgaria.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Prices of existing homes of all types (“dwellings”) in the 18 largest countries in the European Union (EU) and in the European Economic Area (EEA) have not moved in lockstep:
In some countries they have exploded in recent years, such as in Hungary (+21% year-over-year, +296% since 2010) or in Portugal (+18% YoY, +150% since 2010); they have surged in many others; and they don’t look so rosy in markets such as in Finland (-3.1% YoY, -13% from 2010).
In Italy, despite the blistering surge, prices are still below 2010 during the prior housing bubble that then imploded.
Here is a wild ride across the housing markets of the biggest countries by GDP, based on data from Eurostat through Q3 on Friday. The data goes back to 2005 for some countries, and less far for other countries; but I put all of them on the same timeline going back to 2005 for easier comparison. The vertical axis represents the index value; the index was set with a value of 100 for 2010.
Prices declined from peak in prior years in 6 of the 18 countries (year of peak):
- Finland: -13.4% (Q2 2022), back to 2010 levels.
- Germany: -8.1% (Q2 2022)
- Sweden: -6.4% (Q2 2022)
- France: -4.3% (Q3 2022)
- Italy: -2.9% (Q2 2011)
- Austria: -2.3% (Q3 2022)
Biggest price gains since 2010:
- Hungary: 296%
- Czech Republic: 162%
- Portugal: 150%
- Bulgaria: 139%
- Austria: 126%
- Norway: 120%
- Poland: 108%
- Netherlands: 95%
- Sweden: 85%
- Germany: 85%
- Ireland: 79%
- Denmark: 74%.
Biggest year-over-year gains:
- Hungary: 21.1%
- Portugal: 17.7%
- Bulgaria: 15.4%
- Spain: 12.8%
- Czech Republic: 10.8%
- Netherlands: 7.7%
- Ireland: 7.5%
- Denmark: 6.8%
- Romania: 6.6%
Biggest quarter-over-quarter gains in Q3:
- Portugal: 4.1%
- Bulgaria: 3.8%
- Hungary: 3.1%
- Spain: 2.9%
- Ireland: 2.6%
- Czech Republic: 2.5%
- Denmark: 2.5%
- Belgium: 2.4%
- Romania: 2.3%
- Netherlands: 2.0%
The two countries with quarter-over-quarter declines in Q3:
- Finland: -2.2%
- Norway: -0.5%.
The home price indices for the 18 largest countries in the EU or EEA:
The little tables show either three or four columns, from left to right: % change since 2010; quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) % change; year-over-year (YoY) % change; and % decline from the peak, if applicable.
| Germany, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 85% | 1.0% | 3.3% | -8.1% |
| France, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 33% | 1.6% | 0.7% | -4.3% |
| Italy, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 0% | 0.7% | 3.9% | -2.9% |
| Spain, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 37% | 2.9% | 12.8% |
| Netherlands, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 95% | 2.0% | 7.7% |
| Poland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 108% | 0.9% | 4.0% | |
| Belgium, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 62% | 2.4% | 3.7% | |
| Sweden, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 85% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.4% |
| Ireland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 79% | 2.6% | 7.5% | |
| Norway, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 120% | -0.5% | 5.1% | |
| Austria, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 126% | 1.6% | 2.7% | -2.3% |
| Denmark, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 74% | 2.5% | 6.8% | |
| Romania, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 34% | 2.3% | 6.6% | |
| Czech Republic, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 162% | 2.5% | 10.8% | |
| Finland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 6% | -2.2% | -3.1% | -13.4% |
| Portugal, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY | |
| 150% | 4.1% | 17.7% | |
| Hungary, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 296% | 3.1% | 21.1% |
| Bulgaria, Prices of Existing Homes | ||
| Since 2010 | QoQ | YoY |
| 139% | 3.8% | 15.4% |
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Finland is a shocking exception, as one of the 4 Euro nations to increase in price between 2009-2014, but the only one of any Euro nations to be back at 2010 prices, despite a steadily increasing population since 1965.
an AI engine stated: “Finland’s housing prices dropped back to 2010 levels due to a combination of soaring variable interest rates (rapidly increasing mortgage costs), a significant oversupply of new apartments from previous building booms, weak household purchasing power from slow wage growth, and general economic uncertainty, leading to decreased demand”
what is the actual price of these homes in usd?
It all depends of country and location. From my experience I can share ehat I see: Averages starting: NL house, some 600K (Amsterdam 1,2M) apartment 400K, Spain big cities: houses 800K, apartment 400K, smaller towns: apartment 150K. Bulgaria (Sofia), apartment 250k.. Small villages: dirt cheap…
Here is the reality in Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU.
In the capital Sofia, the average price per m2 is around 2500 euros or 2155 usd. The average gross salary is 1789 euros or 1529 usd. The prices of goods and services are almost the same as in Western European countries
Here is a comparison between Vienna, which was the number one city to live in the world for a decade, and the third largest city in Bulgaria – Varna.
Vienna registered 18,865,000 overnight stays, and Varna – 3,561,074, meaning Vienna welcomed 5.3 times more tourists in the same year; also, the desired average salary in Varna is 1,160 euros – compared to the usual 4,260 euros in Vienna. We also compare Bulgaria’s GDP – 103.4billion euros, and that of Austria – 485 billion euros (because the bulgarian statistic does not have detailed statistics by city). We note that Austria has a GDP 4.7 times larger than Bulgaria. Let us note, however, that we are comparing an imperial capital in Western Europe and a provincial town without highway access to the capital and neighboring cities. With a difference of about 5 times in GDP, number of tourists and level of salaries, prices per m2 in Favoriten (10th district) and Margareten (5th district) in Vienna are around 4827 euros and 4070 euros respectively, and in the Chaika district in Varna they are 3000 – 4000 euros per m2.
Or to buy 1 m2 in Vienna at 6500 euros per m2, 1.3 gross monthly salaries are needed. To buy 1 m2 in Varna, 1.1 gross salaries. Keep in mind that the capital Vienna is a former imperial city and currently leading the ranking for the best place to live, and Varna is a provincial city that does not even have a highway connecting it to the capital and even to neighboring cities.
The Bulgarian real estate market is in a bubble that is much bigger than that of Toronto when all indicators such as prices per m2, salaries, GDP and accessibility are taken into account.
* The average gross salary is 1,789 euros or 2,093 US dollars.
I’m from Spain.
We are kind in the same situation here.
Our euro and eeuu mates want to live in our cities as we made them very attractive.
we should let them our houses , of course.
Spain try to impose some kind of additional tax to foreigners, but europe went nuts about it.
So here we are, paying MORE in Barcelona and Madrid than other big metros but salaries are 1/2 of foreigner salaries.
maybe we all find another way…
There is a big difference between Spain and Bulgaria. In Spain, properties are bought by Americans, Germans, English and people from all over the world, even Bulgarians.
In Bulgaria, the net flow of foreign investment in real estate for the period January-September 2025 was negative at EUR 11.5 million, increasing nearly fivefold compared to the negative flow of EUR 2.5 million a year earlier.
Not only are foreigners not buying properties in Bulgaria, but those who have bought are selling and fleeing.