Every housing market dances to its own dynamics.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

In some markets, prices of mid-tier single-family homes, condos, and co-ops have sunk substantially from their peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024. In other markets prices have continued to rise, though at a much slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. Here we track 33 large and expensive markets by Metropolitan Statistical Area or MSA (Census-designated urban areas often consisting of multiple cities).

Prices in November declined year-over-year in 22 of the 33 MSAs that we track here, up from 6 at the end of 2024. The three MSAs with the biggest drops were Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (-23.6%), San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (-10.5%), and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (-10.4%).

In 9 of our 33 MSAs here, prices rose to new highs in November. The three MSAs of them with the biggest year-over-year price increases were Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI (+4.1%), Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN (+3.7%), and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ (+3.0%).

To qualify for the 33 most splendid housing bubbles, the MSA must be one of the largest by population and must have had home prices of at least $300,000 at some point. Some metros that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because home prices never reached $300,000, despite the blistering surge of home prices in recent years, such as the metros of New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

Prices were down from their highs in prior years in 23 of the 33 metros.

In 23 of our 33 metros, prices peaked in 2022, 2023, or 2024 and have declined since then. Of them, 17 experienced their peaks in 2022; Atlanta’s was in 2023, and the peaks of Miami, San Diego, Charlotte, San Jose, and Los Angeles occurred in 2024:

Percentage declines from their respective peaks in prior years through November 2025:

1. Austin, TX: -23.6%
2. San Francisco: -10.5%
3. Phoenix: -10.4%
4. San Antonio: -8.7%
5. Tampa: -7.7%
6. Sacramento: -7.3%
7. Denver: -7.1%
8. Dallas: -6.8%
9. Orlando: -5.0%
10. Miami: -5.0% (2024 peak)
11. Portland: -4.7%
12. Honolulu: -4.6%
13. San Jose: -3.9% (2024 peak)
14. Raleigh: -3.9%
15. Seattle: -3.4%
16. Atlanta: -3.4% (2023 peak)
17. Houston: -3.2%
18. Las Vegas: -3.0%
19. San Diego: -2.7% (2024 peak)
20. Salt Lake City: -2.1%
21. Los Angeles: -1.8% (2024 peak)
22. Nashville: -1.7%
23. Charlotte: -0.9% (2024 peak)

Prices reached a new high in 9 of the 33 MSAs (YoY % rise):

1. Milwaukee: +4.1%
2. Chicago: +3.7%
3. New York City: +3.0%
4. Philadelphia: +2.9%
5. Kansas City: +2.7%
6. Minneapolis: +2.0%
7. Boston: +1.5%
8. Columbus, OH: +1.5%
9. Baltimore: +1.4%

Prices declined year-over-year in 22 of the 33 MSAs:

1. Tampa, FL: -6.0%
2. Austin, TX: -6.0%
3. Miami, FL: -4.7%
4. Orlando, FL: -4.4%
5. Dallas, TX: -4.0%
6. Phoenix, AZ: -3.4%
7. San Francisco, CA: -3.2%
8. Denver, CO: -3.0%
9. San Antonio, TX: -2.9%
10. Atlanta, GA: -2.9%
11. San Diego, CA: -2.5%
12. Raleigh, NC: -2.5%
13. Sacramento, CA: -2.3%
14. Houston, TX: -2.1%
15. San Jose, CA: -1.9%
16. Las Vegas, NV: -1.6%
17. Honolulu, HI: -1.3%
18. Los Angeles, CA: -1.3%
19. Portland, OR: -1.1%
20. Seattle, WA: -1.1%
21. Charlotte, NC: -0.7%
22. Nashville, TN: -0.1%

Methodology: All pricing data here for the 33 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) are from the seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Zillow’s Database of All Homes also has sales-pairs data.

The 33 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.

In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. In the column furthest to the right: the percentage increase “since 2000.”

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX, Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-23.8%	-0.3%	-6.0%	147%

Back to April 2021. Prices had exploded by 73% from January 2020 through June 2022. A little over half of that price explosion has been backed out:

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA, Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10.5%	0.3%	-3.2%	284%

Back to August 2021. From January 2020 through June 2022, prices exploded by 33%.

The MSA includes San Francisco, much of the East Bay (such as Oakland), much of the North Bay, and goes south on the Peninsula into Silicon Valley through San Mateo County. It does not include the San Jose metro, which covers the southern portion of the Bay Area, and that’ll get to in a moment.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10.4%	0.0%	-3.4%	211%

Prices exploded by 65% from January 2020 through June 2022.

San Antonio MSA, Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-8.7%	-0.1%	-2.9%	143%

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.7%	-0.2%	-6.0%	252%

Prices exploded by 60% between January 2020 and June 2022.

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA, Home Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.2%	0.1%	-2.3%	239.5%

Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO, Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.1%	0.1%	-3.0%	203%

 

Dallas-Fort Worth MSA, Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-6.8%	-0.1%	-4.0%	183%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL, Home Prices
From Sep 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-5.0%	-0.2%	-4.7%	312%

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, Home Prices
From June 2022	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-5.0%	-0.1%	-4.4%	223%

Prices exploded by 48% between January 2020 and June 2022.

Urban Honolulu, HI, Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.6%	0.4%	-1.3%	279%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA, Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.5%	0.2%	-1.1%	213%

Raleigh-Cary, NC, Home Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.9%	-0.1%	-2.5%	152%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA, Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.4%	0.4%	-1.1%	235%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, Home Prices
From July 2022	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.4%	-0.1%	-2.9%	155%

Prices exploded 51% between January 2020 and June 2022.

Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX, Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.2%	-0.1%	-2.1%	146%

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV, Home Prices
From June 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.2%	-0.1%	-1.6%	177%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, Home Prices
Fr Dec 2024 high	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.9%	1.0%	-1.9%	335%

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, Home Prices
Fr Jul 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.7%	0.1%	-2.5%	328%

Prices exploded by 53% between January 2020 and June 2022.

Salt Lake City-Murray, UT, Home Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.1%	0.5%	2.0%	220%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, Home Prices
Fr Dec 2024 high	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-1.8%	0.4%	-1.3%	327%

Nashville MSA, Home Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-1.7%	0.1%	-0.1%	216%

Prices exploded by 50% between January 2020 and June 2022.

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC, Home Prices
Fr May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-0.9%	0.1%	-0.7%	167%

Prices exploded by 54% between January 2020 and June 2022.

 

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.2%	0.4%	217%

Baltimore MSA, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.0%	1.4%	178%

Columbus, OH, MSA, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.2%	1.5%	156%

Prices exploded by 43% between January 2020 and June 2022. From January 2020 through November 2025, prices exploded by 51%.

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.4%	1.5%	229%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.3%	2.0%	162%

Kansas City, MO-KS, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.4%	2.7%	182%

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.2%	2.9%	210%

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.5%	3.0%	222%

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.5%	3.7%	120%

 

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI, Home Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.7%	4.1%	154.8%

But at the national level, year-over-year price declines of mid-tier homes in some markets and increases in other markets balanced each other out, and on a year-over-year basis, prices were essentially unchanged in November, and down a hair from their peak in February this year.

And in case you missed it:

Mortgage Rates Are Not Too High. What’s too High Are Home Prices that Exploded by 40-70% in 2 Years, Creating the “Affordability Crisis”

NAR Says Typical First-Time Homebuyer Age Was 40 in 2025, up from 33 in 2021. But Is this Accurate?

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.