The Condo Bust is spreading, after the most extraordinary Condo Bubble maybe ever.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Fairly steep declines of condo prices have been spreading to more and more cities. Here we’re looking at prices of mid-tier condos in some of the bigger cities.
Condo prices in the markets on this list have dropped by 12% to 28% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each city has its own chart below, with some additional data. Prices through September, seasonally adjusted.
The 23 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 28% from their peaks:
- Oakland, CA: -28% (2022)
- Cape Coral, FL: -28% (2024)
- Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
- St. Petersburg, FL: -25% (2022)
- San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
- Jacksonville, FL: -16% (2022)
- Tampa, FL: -16% (2022)
- Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
- Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
- Arlington, TX: -15% (2024)
- Seattle: -14% (2022)
- Boise, ID: -14% (2022)
- Reno, NV: -14% (2022)
- Aurora, CO: -14% (2022)
- Portland, OR: -13% (2022)
- Orlando, FL: -13% (2024)
- Scottsdale, AZ: -13% (2022)
- Mesa, AZ: -12% (2022)
- New Orleans, LA: -12% (2022)
- Phoenix, AZ: -12% (2024)
- Garland, TX: -12% (2022)
- Chandler, AZ: -12% (2022)
- Port Saint Lucie, FL: -12% (2024)
Cities that are too small to be included: Because the list was getting too long, I removed from the list of cities we track here some of the smaller cities in Florida and put them on this new too-small list (and their charts are no longer shown). Florida has some cities that are well-known, high-priced, and are centers of big urban areas; but by population of the city itself, they’re too small to be included here, which complicates the list. So now they’re on the too-small list, which is just a sampling of the many smaller cities with big drops of condo prices.
For example, prices from the peak in prior years:
- Killeen, TX: -42%
- Sarasota, FL: -21%
- Fort Myers, FL: -21%
- Bradenton, FL: -20%
- Naples, FL: -16%
- Lake Worth Beach, FL: -15%
- West Palm Beach, FL: -15%
- Boca Raton, FL: -14%
- Kissimmee, FL: -13%
- Clarksville, TN: -13%
- Greenville, SC: -12%
- Lakeland, FL: -12%
Didn’t make the 12% cut-off: There are many bigger cities where mid-tier condo prices have declined from their respective peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024, but not enough to make the 12% cut-off. Here are some salient examples (year of peak):
- New York City, NY: -11% (2022)
- San Antonio, TX: -11% (2024)
- Plano, TX: -11% (2022)
- Corpus Christi, TX: -11% (2023)
- Houston, TX: -10% (2024)
- Raleigh, NC: -10% (2022)
- Colorado Springs, CO -10% (2024)
- Sacramento, CA: -10% (2024)
- Salt Lake City, UT: -9% (2022)
- Dallas, TX: -9% (2023)
- Stockton, CA: -9% (2024)
- Washington, DC: -8% (2022)
- Atlanta, GA: -8% (2023)
- San Jose, CA: -7% (2022)
- Fort Worth, TX: -7%
- Las Vegas, NV: -7% (2022)
- Nashville, TN: -7% (2022)
- Oklahoma City, OK: -7% (2023)
- Miami, FL: -6% (2023)
- Los Angeles, CA: -6% (2022)
- San Diego, CA: -6% (2023)
- Long Beach, CA: -6% (2023)
- Memphis, TN: -6% (2024)
- Honolulu, HI: -6% (2022)
Year-over-year, prices declined in 22 of the 23 cities here in September. (exception: Boise unchanged), topped off by:
- St. Petersburg: -15.8%
- Cape Coral, FL: -15.7%
- Arlington, TX: -14.2%
- Oakland, CA: -12.8%
- Jacksonville, FL: -10.8%
- Tampa, FL: -10.2%
- Orlando, FL: -10.0%
- Port Saint Lucie, FL: -8.7%
- Garland, TX: -8.6%
- Aurora, CO: 8.0%
- Denver, FL: -7.6%
Condo prices in many of these cities, after running up for years, exploded from early 2020 through mid-2022 by 50%, 60%, 70% or more, in just two-and-a-half years, amidst an astounding FOMO-driven buying behavior and general investor-mania during the Free-Money era which created what was perhaps the most extraordinary condo bubble ever.
In the 10 years to the peak, prices exploded by 180% (Oakland), 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), by 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, Chandler), and 350% (Phoenix, Mesa). And by 500% in San Bernardino, CA, where prices have just started to decline and haven’t made the list yet. This stuff is just nuts.
Now these bubbles are deflating. The charts below, going back to 2003, visualize that process.
In some densely populated cities, such as San Francisco, condos often make up a bigger part of home sales than single-family homes.
Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops in “cities” (not in Metropolitan Statistical Areas) from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.
The Condo Bust in charts:
In the little tables for each city below, the metrics from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.
| Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -28% | -1.3% | -12.8% | 153% |
Lowest since December 2015, nearly 10 years ago, and nearly back to the peak of Housing Bubble 1: In each of the last five months, prices dropped by 1.3% to 1.8% month to month. That’s steep!
| Cape Coral, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -28% | -1.8% | -15.7% | 145.1% |
Back to where prices had first been in 2005, 20 years ago, below the peak of Housing Bubble 1. Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust.
| Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -25% | -0.2% | -5.9% | 113% |
Lowest since April 2021.
| St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Oct 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -25% | -1.6% | -16% | 193% |
Lowest since August 2021. Prices had already plunged 1.9% in August, 2.0% in July, and 1.8% in June.
| Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | -1.1% | -10.2% | 266% |
| San Francisco, CA, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 139% |
Lowest since March 2015.
| Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Nov 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -16% | -0.8% | -10.8% | 153% |
| Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.4% | -7.6% | 137% |
Lowest since May 2021.
| Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2021 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.6% | -3.3% | 265% |
Lowest since September 2018.
| Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15% | -0.8% | -14.2% | 236% |
Back to April 2022.
| Seattle, WA, City Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14% | -0.2% | -5.2% | 136% |
Lowest since September 2017.
| Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14% | -0.7% | -3.6% | 246% |
| Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14% | -1% | -8% | 205% |
| Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2001 |
| -14% | 0.2% | 0% | 221% |
| Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jan 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | -0.9% | -10.0% | 160.5% |
| Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | -0.3% | -5.0% | 110% |
Lowest since June 2016.
| Scottsdale, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | -0.2% | -4.9% | 196.4% |
| New Orleans, LA, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | 0.4% | -1.2% | 100% |
Back to mid-2016.
| Phoenix, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.2% | -5.2% | 237% |
| Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.8% | -8.7% | 242.6% |
| Mesa, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.2% | -4.5% | 209% |
| Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.2% | -4.9% | 196.4% |
| Chandler, AZ, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12% | -0.1% | -3.6% | 214.7% |
Condos are facing a lot of issues, including:
- Prices that exploded over the past few years, driven by FOMO-addled buyers, including investors, and ended up being way too high.
- Hefty special assessments for long-neglected big repairs.
- Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, in part driven by spiking insurance costs.
- Fannie Mae’s ever-expanding Blacklist of condo buildings that makes financing a unit in one of those buildings very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers.
- The end of Free Money: Mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range.
- Foreign-based owners who’ve had it and want to sell.
- Investors in condos to rent them out are facing stiff competition from a wave of new higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.
And in case you missed it: The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in September 2025
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:
Good, keep it going… More and steeper drop and faster.. Go Big or go home right?
Thanks WR for this report.
I guess the downturn is starting slowly but surely.
Condos are the first dominos to fall usually followed by SFRs.
I will say so far it really seems that price decreases have for most part seemed to avoid the north east though will say for sale signs are on the increase.
Outside of Boston was to a large degree the first “silicon valley” decades back and had a lot of defense contractors along with the major hospitals and colleges,still…..,a lot of that is gone and really have not seen what is replacing it and keeping the pricing so high ,especially as you get away from the city regions.
I think in a lot of cases, it’s the parents who are funding the kids. Throughout the “Northeast” white collar parents have accumulated a lot of money and they are realizing they can’t be buried with it. So, it is being gifted to the kids for buying a condo or house (who aren’t going to refuse the money regardless of how crazy prices get). Maybe it’s payback to the kids who will have to dig the parents out when they get snowstorms in their old age.
Also, watch those condos; they are great canaries for how the rest of the market will perform in the not too distant future.
That’s one of the big problems in having government policy that intentionally makes the wealth gap worse.
Be careful with the this area is different narrative. Seen it all too common with NorCal (SF) and recently with Austin and look at where they are at now. SoCalers seems to have this same my area is different mentality, so far they are claiming victory as percentage drop still marginal at best but usually time will reveal the truth.
Northeast might seem like they are immune and bucking the trend but if the fundamental and sustainability reasons is not solid, it will eventually go the way of certain previous invinicible high flying market as well.
Have you missed the biotech boom? Metro Boston has had a boom in venture capital for this industry. Tech is doing well thanks to companies wanting proximity to MIT. And while defense has had its ups and downs, Raytheon remains a big force in MA.
Salt Lake City – SFR Appreciation is flattening. Inventory is refilling. Condo’s / Townhouses have been built in every vacant lot…Condo/TH Appreciation is flat now.
Area is taking a breath.
People keep coming but the flood has backed off a bit.
Infrastructure built for the 2002 Olympics is now maxed out.
How much is enough???
Ahhh I am on the list now! Well at least I know I won’t get hit by a hurricane…
No, you’re not on a list I have. But your comments arrive flagged as potential spam. Maybe they’re getting routed through a spam server. Sometimes this goes away on its own.
Interesting, I seem to be getting that same potential spam filter automatically as well…or maybe not accidental flagged…:/
Yes. Can both of you try a different email address (fake is fine) with at least 10 letters in the handle and without numbers and without dots, underscores, etc. in the email handle, something you can easily remember, such as notmeagain@gmail.com or whatever.
The first time you do this, the comment will certainly go into moderation. But maybe the second time, it passes.
If that doesn’t work, trying out a different screen name might work.
great charts! that list of issues is quite compelling with no quick fix to arrest the slide in sight. somebody is going to be hurting or is this where our nationalized mortgage industry puts all taxpayers (and their children) on the hook to share the pain? and of course all mortgage industry executives will get their bonuses.
Another 50-70 percent and it starts to look reasonable!
I’m starting to wonder if it will ever look reasonable at any price. With the reported softening of the RE market, I started watching the prices of my favorite ocean view condo where I live in Honolulu. The prices are softening but this $1.3M condo carries with it a rapidly increasing $2000+/month maintenance fee that does not include property tax, electric or important insurance. All of these extras could easily fund a luxury condo rental in other amazing areas to live in the world that is paid for by TBill/Note/Bond interest on the $1.3M condo principal without me being “owned” by the condo or worrying about the possibility of special assessments.
“it a rapidly increasing $2000+/month maintenance fee that does not include property tax, electric or important insurance”
Wow, this is just bonker to the moon……even if we disregard the chance of any price correction and continue to assume housing will go up every year by mid single to low double digit, that carrying cost will eat you up alive, if strictly view from the whole housing is the best investment lens…another thing to point out the silliness of house humpers logic..
I’m not shocked at all by Florida. Every reason you listed describes Florida, where other areas only have some of those issues.
What does shock me is that Chicago isn’t on the list. Population of Chicago continues to slowly decrease, so why prices aren’t is hard to explain.
To be clear, is the data actual sale price data or ‘for sale’ price data? With the number of actual sales falling, perhaps these numbers are too optimistic for the markets as a whole.
Actual sales prices.
I don’t see these prices in those cities as “optimistic.”
However, there are cities where prices are still edging higher.
Just Look at your charts…just look at your charts! Housing Bubble 2 is a Mega Monster!
Imaging going to the chicken farmer and seeing normal sized chickens. Five years later, you return to visit Mr. Chicken Farmer and he has super-dosed his chickens with steroids, and you are now seeing 75-pound monster chickens running around everywhere. Massive, crazy and freakish. Thus is the monster that has been created with this current housing bubble.