And to top it off: cancellations of pending sales rose to a record rate in July.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Demand in the housing market sagged further: Pending home sales dropped by 0.4% in July from June, seasonally adjusted. They have now spent nearly three years crawling along, or setting, record lows, according to data going back to 2010 from the National Association of Realtors today (historic data in the chart via YCharts):

It’s even worse: the cancellation rate. Pending sales are based on contract signings and track deals that haven’t closed yet and could still get canceled because buyers cannot afford or even get homeowner’s insurance, or for other reasons. Signed contracts that then get cancelled are included in the pending sales here, but are not included in closed sales reported later.

Alas, Redfin reported that in July, 58,000 pending sales were canceled, amounting to 15.3% of all pending sales, the highest rate for any July in Redfin’s data going back to 2017

Pending sales in all regions near record lows. Pending sales fell sharply in the Midwest, but also declined in the South and Northeast. The West was the only region where pending sales rose. Pending sales remained near record lows in all four regions.

Pending sales of existing homes in the US, compared to the Julys in prior years:

• 2024: +0.7%
• 2023: -6.5%
• 2022: -21%
• 2021: -36%
• 2020: -41%
• 2019: -32%.

The Buyers’ Strike continues because prices are too high after shooting up by 50% or more within 2-3 years. Those prices no longer make economic sense.

While inventory surged. This plunge in demand coincides with surging inventories of existing homes for sale – despite large waves of delistings by frustrated sellers – leading to the most supply since July 2016 over the past three months, along with May 2020.

Split out by single-family homes and condos: Supply of single family homes rose to 4.5 months while supply of condos has been over 6 months since April, the highest since 2012 at the end of the Housing Bust. Here is the combined supply:

In the South, pending sales dipped 0.1% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted.

A map of the four Census Regions is posted in the comments below.

Compared to the Julys of prior years:

• 2024: +1.8%
• 2023: -9%
• 2020: -39%
• 2019: -30%

But inventories surged across the South.

In Texas, inventory of existing homes for sale in July jumped by 24% year-over-year, and by 32% from July 2019, to the highest in at least the decade of data from Realtor.com (we discussed the inventories of the big metros in Texas here).

In Florida, active listings in July jumped by 23% year-over-year, and by 29% from July 2019, according to data from Realtor.com (we discussed Florida’s by-metro inventories and days on the market here):

And for example, in the Atlanta metropolitan area, active listings spiked by 31% year-over-year in July:

In the West, pending sales rose by 3.7% in July from June, which had been the second-lowest on record.

Compared to the Julys of prior years:

• 2024: -1.9%
• 2023: -6%
• 2020: -47%
• 2019: -40%

Active listings in the West have also been surging.

In Los Angeles County and in the San Francisco metropolitan area, active listings reached the highest level for any July in the decade of data from Realtor.com (discussion of inventories of in biggest markets of California is here).

In other markets in the West, inventories have also surged, reaching the highest for any July in the decade of data in the metros of Denver, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Tucson, Portland, and Las Vegas (discussion by metro here).

For example, active listings in the Denver-Aurora-Centennial metro are up by 48% from July 2019 (dotted purple), and along with June the most in the decade of data from Realtor.com.

In the Northeast, pending sales dipped by 0.6% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted.

Compared to the Julys of prior years:

• 2024: -0.6%
• 2023: -2%
• 2020: -42%
• 2019: -31%

In the Northeast, inventories have also grown, but remain tighter than in other parts of the US.

For example, in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro, inventory jumped by 25% year-over-year and by 61% from July 2023, to be roughly level with July 2020, but well below the prepandemic years.

In the Midwest, pending sales dropped by 4.0% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, to the second-lowest sales in the data going back to 2010.

The record low had been July 2024, and compared to this record low, sales were 1.3% higher.

Compared to the Julys of prior years:

• 2024: +1.3%
• 2023: -8%
• 2020: -39%
• 2019: -29%

Inventories in some of the big metros in the Midwest diverge, rising sharply in some, such as in the metro of Columbus, OH, but less so in the metros of Detroit and Chicago:

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.