The Housing Markets of Europe: From Most Splendid Housing Bubbles to Go-Nowhere Markets

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

This is our second annual wild ride across sales prices of existing homes of all types (“dwellings”) in the 16 largest economies that are either in the European Union (EU) or in the European Economic Area (EEA), based on data from Eurostat through Q1, released on Friday. The data goes back to 2005 for some countries, and less far for other countries.

Some countries have or had indeed the most splendid housing bubbles, and a few of those have deflated some. Other countries had the most splendid housing bubbles 15 or more years ago. A few didn’t have any housing bubbles at all. And one essentially went nowhere over the past 15 years. So a wild ride across the spectrum.

Biggest decliners from the peak and year of that peak:

  1. Finland: -14.6% from Q2 2022
  2. Italy: -14.3% from Q2 2011
  3. Germany: -11.3% from Q2 2022
  4. Sweden: -7.3% from Q2 2022
  5. Austria: -7.3% from Q3 2022
  6. France: -6.5% from Q3 2022

Triple-digit gainers from 2010 to their respective peak:

  1. Czech Republic: +146%
  2. Portugal: +139%
  3. Austria: +136%
  4. Norway: +111%
  5. Poland: 108%
  6. Germany: +106%
  7. Sweden: +103%

The home price indices for the biggest European markets:

The little tables show either three or four columns:

(1) % change from 2010 to the peak, whether the peak was in 2022 or in the current quarter. But in some countries, the peak was before 2010, such as in Italy and Spain, and those markets don’t have that column. (2) Quarter-over-quarter % change. (3) Year-over-year % change. And (4) % change in the current quarter from the peak.

Of the 16 markets, 7 are down from their peaks:

Finland, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY From peak
16.5% -1.6% -2.3% -14.6%

The index fell back to where it had first been in 2010. This is an example of a housing market that really hasn’t gone anywhere in 15 years.

Italy, Prices of Existing Homes
QoQ YoY From peak
1.63% 4.9% -14.3%

The recovery started during the pandemic.

Germany, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY From peak
105.7% 1.3% 3.6% -11.3%

The index is where it had been in 2021.

Sweden, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY From peak
103.2% 0.3% 3.3% -7.3%

Also back to 2021.

Austria, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY From peak
136.2% 1.1% 3.3% -7.3%

The index is also back where it had been in 2021.

France, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY From peak
39.0% 0.3% 0.4% -6.5%

Spain, Prices of Existing Homes
QoQ YoY From peak
3.2% 12.3% -1.2%

Home prices are almost back to the peak 18 years ago.


Of the 16 markets, the other 9 have made new highs:

Poland, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
107.8% 0.5% 6.2% New high

The Eurostat data for Poland begins in 2010:

Belgium, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
58.2% 1.4% 3.6% New high

Denmark, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
65.5% 2.1% 8.8% New High

Norway, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
111.5% 5.7% 7.3% New High

Ireland, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
77.2% 1.1% 9.1% New High

The Eurostat data only goes back to 2010, and Ireland’s troubles started earlier. But within the data, from 2010 to 2012, the index plunged by 33%.

Romania, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
24.8% 2.1% 6.2% New high

Czech Republic, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
145.9% 2.2% 9.3% New high

Portugal, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
139.1% 5.3% 17.0% New high

From 2010 to 2013, the index fell by nearly 20%. From that low point in 2013, the index has nearly tripled.

Netherlands, Prices of Existing Homes
2010 to Peak QoQ YoY
85.9% 1.8% 10.9% New high

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  8 comments for “The Housing Markets of Europe: From Most Splendid Housing Bubbles to Go-Nowhere Markets

  1. Dave says:

    No wonder the Portuguese hate the foreigners buying up all their property. Up 17% YoY after several years of YoY growth is crazy.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Yes, they come in with their American wealth and make the local housing market unaffordable for locals. Happening in lots of places. Not always Americans though, but Chinese buyers and others too. Mexico City has some protests going on over the issue right now (apparently popular with Digital Nomads). Chinese buyers also drove up local markets in the US, though that has cooled in recent years. There is a lot of the going around.

      • Phoenix_Ikki says:

        Yeah you see a lot of those Chinese buyers even now in SoCal, especially in SGV and Irvine, doesn’t seem to ever slow down unfortunately…

        • thurd2 says:

          The entire swath from Monterey Park to Diamond Bar (east of downtown Los Angeles) has gone Chinese/Korean. I sold a house in Diamond Bar and ALL the prospective buyers were Chinese.

  2. Sporkfed says:

    Low rates caused quite a bit of distortion in most markets.

  3. Anon says:

    Can we blame all of these on supply shortages too?

  4. Phoenix_Ikki says:

    Interesting data for Europe, wonder if majority of their population have the same house humping mentality that housing will always go up and a sense of shame (or throwing away money mentality) in renting as a lot of people have in the US. At least they don’t have this beast call the 30yrs fixed mortgage to harden their belief..

    • thurd2 says:

      A big difference in housing markets is if the buyer can “assume” the mortgage of the seller, which sort of happens in Canada but never in the US. It would be nice to see the most recent average home price in the various countries discussed by Wolf. I wouldn’t mind buying a house in rural France, Germany, Italy, or Greece, away from the invasion.

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