Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Denver, Portland, Phoenix, Fort Worth, San Antonio.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

There are different housing market dynamics among big cities in terms of mid-tier single-family homes: Some big cities have been showing price declines for some time, and in 10 of them, the price declines have turned more serious, seasonally adjusted, after the gigantic price explosion over the prior few years. But other big cities show continued price increases; or flat prices around the high; or the first declines after big surges.

Five of these big cities had double-digit price declines from their peaks in mid-2022 through May, two of which over 20%, seasonally adjusted.

1. Austin: -22.1%
2. Oakland: -20.3%
3. New Orleans: -18.1%
4. San Francisco: -15.3%
5. Washington DC: -10.8%

Other cities had similar price declines of mid-tier single-family homes, such as Birmingham, AL (-14%). But the cities are too small to qualify for this big-city list.

Five more big cities had price declines of around 8% to 9% from their peaks in mid-2022 through May:

1. Denver: -9.0%
2. Portland: -8.9%
3. Phoenix: -8.8%
4. Fort Worth: -7.7%
5. San Antonio: -7.6%

Prices in all of these 10 big cities in May fell month-to-month and year-over-year.

Single-family home prices are not sliding down the slippery slope as fast as condo prices have been sliding, which I discussed a few days ago: The Condo Bust Is Here: Prices Dropped Already 10% to 23% in 20 Bigger Cities, Unravel the Most Splendid Condo Bubble Ever.

These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month moving averages of “mid-tier” single-family homes in “cities” – not in metros, or Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The values are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The 10 Big Cities with the biggest price declines.

In the little tables for each city below, note the sharp month-to-month drops – a sign that the declines are heating up (the drops are not seasonal because the index is seasonally adjusted).

The metrics in each table from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and increase since January 2000.

Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-22.1%	-0.8%	-5.9%	172%

Prices in the city of Austin are back where they’d first been in May 2021. They exploded on the way up but are much slower-moving on the way back down.

In the two years from mid-2020 through mid-2022, prices in the city of Austin had exploded by 64%, which was nuts. This price explosion in Austin and across the US shows that something went seriously wrong with the Fed’s monetary policies at the time, and we know what: Buying trillions of dollars of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities and leaving short-term policy interest rates at near zero for way too long. But now the Fed is doing the opposite: it shed $2.3 trillion in securities so far via its QT program and has been sticking to its 4%-plus policy rates.

Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-20.3%	-1.4%	-7.6%	297%

Note the month-to-month drop of -1.4%, seasonally adjusted, which is substantial. Prices are back where they’d first been in March 2020. In the decade between mid-2012 and the peak in May 2022, prices had exploded by 236%, which was nuts.

New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2007
-18.1%	-0.4%	-4.1%	109%

Prices are back where they’d first been in September 2020.

San Francisco, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15.3%	-0.3%	1.2%	236%

Prices have returned to where they had been over six years ago in mid-2018. Over the decade through mid-2022, prices had shot up by 146%.

During the two years of mid-2020 through mid-2022, prices had surged by “only” 14% as the price explosion of 127% in the prior eighth years had already exhausted the market, and major companies had started to leave because out-of-whack housing costs were driving up their payroll expenses.

Washington D.C., Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10.8%	-0.7%	-4.1%	279%

Prices are back to September 2020 levels.

Denver, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-9.0%	-0.9%	-3.5%	218%

Prices have returned to January 2022 levels. In the decade through mid-2022, prices had spiked by 174%.

Portland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-8.9%	-0.7%	-0.5%	225%

Prices have fallen below July 2021 levels.

Phoenix, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-8.8%	-0.5%	-3.4%	254%

In a little over two years, between April 2020 and the peak in July 2022, prices of mid-tier single-family homes had spiked by 62%. In the 10 years through mid-2022, prices had exploded by 339%.

Fort Worth, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.7%	-0.5%	-2.6%	194%

Prices have backtracked to March 2022 so far. In the 10 years through August 2022, prices had spiked by 187%.

The cities in Texas didn’t experience much of a Housing Bubble 1, and Housing Bust 1 was therefore relatively mild. But this changed with Housing Bubble 2.

San Antonio, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.6%	-0.5%	-3.6%	154%

Prices have returned to February 2022 levels. In the decade through mid-2022, prices had shot up by 126%.

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