The stock market’s solar craziness gets cleaned out stock by stock, even as solar-power generation continues to soar.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Sunnova Energy International, which booked huge losses every single year selling residential solar energy equipment and services – $1.61 billion in total losses since 2017 – said on Sunday that it and its subsidiaries Sunnova Energy Corporation and Sunnova Intermediate Holdings, LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas. Its subsidiary Sunnova TEP Developer had already filed for bankruptcy on June 1. In the filing, it said that it would continue operating as “debtor in possession” while trying to sell some of its assets under court supervision.
The marvel was of course its stock [NOVA] during the free-money pandemic. It went public in July 2019 at $12 a share and traded around $10 until the free money during the pandemic came along and caused the share price to spike five-fold to $55 by February 2021. That month, right at the peak, the Texas-based company acquired SunStreet from homebuilder Lennar, and Lennar washed its hands off it. Then the shares went to heck and were inducted into our pantheon of Imploded Stocks (minimum requirement: -70% from peak).
Shares last traded on Friday at 22 cents. The company said it expects to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and that holders of its shares “could experience a significant or complete loss on their investment, depending on the outcome of the Chapter 11 Cases” (data via YCharts).
During the years of losses, the company racked up $8.5 billion in debt, as per its last financial statement through December 31 – it failed to file its Q1 financials – amounting to over 10 times its 2024 revenues of $840 million.
In addition, the company had $2.1 billion in other liabilities, for total liabilities of $10.7 billion, as of its year-end financial statements.
Other solar stocks have collapsed as well. But solar power, in terms of electricity generation, keeps rocking higher.
Solar power generation surged 26.9% in 2024 to 303,167 GWh, utility scale and rooftop solar combined. This is not “capacity” but electricity generated and used. Solar’s share ballooned to nearly 7% of the total electricity generated in 2024, surpassing hydropower [my report with charts: US Power Generation by Source in 2024].
In addition, utility-scale batteries have become a profitable way of arbitraging the highly volatile electricity spot prices that can spike during high-demand hours and plunge during low-demand hours, often on the same day. In this arbitrage, batteries work well with big solar installations, buying electricity when the price is low, and selling it often just hours later when the price is high. And batteries work well with small-scale solar too. Some of the solar companies here are involved with both solar power and energy storage.
There are up-front costs with solar power, as there are with every power plant. When it comes to energy, there are no free lunches. But with solar, the “fuel” is free for the life of the installation, and the math has been getting better as the price of photovoltaic panels has come down over the decades.
Big utilities are all over solar power, as are big equipment providers, such as Tesla. But these eight Imploded Stocks here are specialized players, many of them with over 1,000 employees at the peak, and with hundreds of millions to several billion in annual revenues.
Stock market solar craziness.
SunPower is already a goner. It filed for bankruptcy in August 2024. Most of its assets were acquired by solar SPAC Complete Solaria for $45 million (more in a moment), and SunPower’s shares got wiped out.
One of the early solar big boys, it went public in 2005 as a spin-off from Cypress Semiconductor. Its stock experienced two bubbles: #1 in 2006-2007 when it went from $20 a share to $100; and #2 during the free-money pandemic when the stock multiplied by 12, from $4 a share to $54. In the end, it was felled by a toxic mix of operational issues, years of losses, accounting issues, missed filing deadlines, defaults, etc. (data via YCharts).
Complete Solaria [SPWR], which acquired SunPower’s assets, had gone public via merger with a SPAC in July 2023, as a residential solar systems provider. After the acquisition, it started doing business as SunPower and changed its ticker to SunPower’s former ticker SPWR.
Since the SPAC-merger, the stock has plunged by 82% to $1.93 today.
SolarEdge Technologies [SEDG], which makes inverters, batteries, power optimizers, and other equipment for solar systems, went public in 2015 via IPO amid a deal with Tesla Energy to provide inverters for Tesla’s Powerwall. But eventually, Tesla produced its own inverter. And that was that.
The company, headquartered in Israel and largely active in Europe, became sort of a rollup acquiring companies in Korea (Kokam), Italy (SMRE), and the UK (Hark Systems).
In 2024, it lost $1.8 billion, dwarfing the little bitty income it had booked in prior years. And sales collapsed by 70% in 2024.
What’s notable is the stock price, which had multiplied by 10 between early 2019 ($36 a share) and January 2021 ($360 a share), before collapsing by 95% to $18.72 today:
Sunrun [RUN], a residential solar systems installer based in San Francisco, went public via IPO in 2015, and over the past five years, lost $4.5 billion, including $2.85 billion in 2024.
The stock had multiplied by 11 between April 2020 ($8.36) and January 2021 ($96.50), but then collapsed and today closed at $8.27. Maybe investors should have taken the ticker literally?
Enphase Energy [ENPH], which makes equipment for residential and business solar and storage systems, and also EV chargers, went public via IPO in 2012. But then in 2019, stock took off and eventually, fueled by the free-money pandemic, multiplied by 48, to $336 in December 2022. Today, it closed at $43.26, down by 86% from that high.
The company has been profitable, but revenues collapsed by 42% in 2024, to $1.33 billion.
Shoals Technologies [SHLS], maker of equipment for solar systems, including utility-scale systems, went public via IPO in January 2021 at $25 a share, spiked to $40.17 within a few weeks, and then tanked, and closed at $5.10 today, down by 87%.
The company had been mildly profitable in recent years, but annual revenues plunged 18% in 2024 to $399 million.
Array Technologies [ARRY], maker of ground-mounting systems for solar installations, went public via IPO in October 2020, at $22 a share and quickly rose $51.01 in January 2021, before it kathoomphed.
The IPO during the free-money pandemic raised over $1 billion amid huge demand for the shares. It was also when PE firm Oaktree Capital, which had backed Array, began dumping its shares at peak prices.
Annual revenues have plunged by 44% over the past two years, to $915 million in 2024, and it lost $240 million last year. The stock has now plunged by 85% from the January 2021 high, to $7.49.
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“Its stock experienced two bubbles: #1 in 2006-2007 when it went from $20 a share to $100; and #2 during the free-money pandemic when the stock multiplied by 12, from $4 a share to $54.”
You know we’re in the golden age of scam and hype, when one bubble just isn’t good enough. Give it sometime, maybe 3rd time the charm, after a rebranding/name change exercise perhaps..
Btw, pretty sure SolarCity would be at the tip top of this list if it wasn’t for a famous rich cousin that bailed them out…
‘we’re in the golden age of scam and hype,’
And these outfits actually had a product. The coming, guaranteed Crypto Crash will dwarf their flame out. Prediction: CNBC will rue the day it ever started quoting these ‘assets’ along with oil, copper, gold, etc.
The debt added to the US debt pile is going straight to markets. Crypto (and stocks) won’t stop going up until the debt is reined in. Too many dips have been successfully bought since 2009, so it’s gonna be incredibly hard to bring these down.
That doesn’t mean I’m asking you to buy them here; just saying it’s a hardened bubble. Powerful people are now invested in crypto so they will support the scam.
Seems odd to me that every high point is around 2021. Downhill from there. All of these charts should be published in supposedly official financial news reports! Would wager they will be covered up and never published anywhere except here.
A pretty amazing phenomenon: the run-up when a new technology becomes the hot sector and is followed by the deflating baloon flying around the room as the hype sells off.
If it was a mis-guided rally, everyone’s hurting. If it was a legit sector with wild upside, it’s still a shrimp-storm until the 1 or 2 companies in that sector that are the eventual world-beaters in that particular tech area emerges.
Everyone’s right about renewable energy as a growing solution, but the world-beater is probably the highly unpopular company that starts with a T. Sorry haters.
Only unpopular to the many that are unfit mentally.
Because rationality is chasing declining-sales companies with three-figure PE ratios.
Storage and production are two different things.
The company that starts with a T isn’t really in the renewable energy sector. They do have a roofing product that is seriously underperforming and hasn’t gotten much traction thus far. While they are making a storage product, the bulk of their batteries have come from Panasonic and LG, but they are starting to manufacture their own in Texas. The top storage provider by volume in the US is NextEra and while the company that starts with T is a global leader in volume, BYD is right behind them and breathing down their neck. As with electric vehicles, there are enough alternative choices that the company starting with T isn’t guaranteed to be in the catbird seat for long.
It is a legit sector. But you have China who adds yearly to its manufacturing capacity of Solarcells in excess to the total installed capacity of the USA.
– The USA has a total of ~239GW installed total at the end of 2024 (which is kind of weak tbh, should be above 500GW already, and yes the grid can handle it if yall invest in it.)
– China had (in 2023) production capacity for 930GW and produced 212-289GW of modules. => lots of idle production capacity (different sources, different numbers)
-By 2024 China produced already 499GW of solar modules!! Half of that was exported. Solar manuacturers were already struggeling from 2010-2020 from chinese dumping prices. It got a lot worse.
Not even 100% tariffs will save the US solar industry. The thing is, the (most) chinese OEMs aren’t making money either at current prices.
Reuters reported about 2 weeks ago that both the UK and the US discovered undocumented communication devices in inverters and batteries from more than one manufacturer from China.
I know from buying defense equipment that we were super cautious about making sure electronics did not come from China because of the obvious potential for espionage or sabotage. Think about the Hamas cell phones for example. I really think that there’s going to be a market for American made batteries for the BESS systems which are proliferating across North America and the rest of the world right now. At least they would be safe from Chinese espionage
Deflating balloon flying around in a room what a great visual effect…the ai says their are 200 billion trillion stars in the known universe…
It would be interesting to go back and look at the analysts who pushed these stocks back when they were high flyers. Also to view the few who despised them. See where they are today.
Who got all this “free money” and spent it on stocks?
A lot of business owners with PPP loans
Yes, lots of people in the financial and real estate industries. They had a business with employees, took out zero interest, no pay back schedule, federal loans and promptly bought up everything in sight at whatever price they could get. A movie should be made about this. Probably one of the great scams in history.
Yes. When people are handed free money, whether it’s lower middle class people getting $2,000 or business owners getting $500,000, they don’t care how it’s spent, as they didn’t earn it.
Imagine that!
No, I haven’t invested any money, other than what I paid to have my system installed. But, be that as it may, my Enphase Energy system has been working like a champ since 2018.
And that is Slim’s unpaid endorsement.
Thanks for that article. Diversity in articles is great her. I have been following these green energy SPACs a bit since the first bubble.
The big trend here is people being sold these stocks as if the companies didn’t provide common commodities. You can buy a micro inverter equivalent to Enphase for 1/4th the price from china. Great products but still a common appliance. My neighborhood electrician designs and installs solar systems. They are not exactly complicated.
We installed our solar and battery back-up system in March. We typically generate more power than we use. We sell our excess production to Duke Power…and, our battery is fully charged at the end of each day.
We paid $48k for the entire system. We received a tax credit of $15k and a payment of $9k from Duke Power in exchange for limited battery control.
But the beautiful part is that our newly constructed house was designed with a plan for rooftop solar. Can’t see a single panel from the curb.
If these electricity use projections (related to AI) come true, this solar installation will be a fantastic investment.
I have an experience similar to yours. Solar panels and battery with associated electronics. When the grid fails the transfer switch move me over to battery almost instantly and then back to the grid when the power comes back. Battery is enough to run the house for 15 hours.
My Rocky Mountain Power bill averages 21.00/month. However, the whole install with a cost comparable to yours will probably never make real economic sense. The payback is about the estimated life of the Panels. However the panels are not the real expense driver, its the other electronics – concentrator, inverter, transfer switch and the labor involved with the initial install.
But for myself the payback is not being subject to power outages and being somewhat insulated from the constant rate increases which the power company blames on state green energy mandates.
I have direct experience with Sunrun from properties my father owned in Calif. What a disaster. Much of the solar scam in Calif is that homeowners pay nothing for the install, they lease their roofs to the installer and then get paid with a reduced electricity rate. The catch is they put a lien on your house and commit you to 20 years.
Then when you sell your house, you had to get the buyers to accept the lease. Meanwhile the initial discount on your electric bill seemed to shrink over time and as Sunrun ran into trouble, the “free” maintenance never happened.
Still early on. Wait another 8-13 years, and the odds are your system will probably not be doing so well. You could be a lucky one whose system keeps going well, but many rooftop solar systems tend to start having problems after about 15 years.
? Solar was early 20 years ago. If you own a house, and it doesn’t matter if its in florida or alaska, you are not financial responsible if your roof isn’t covered with solar cells.
It is very simple. The math checked out while the cells were 4x more expensive. The only problem might be with your codes and prohibitive certification costs or whatever.
I know people who change their panels after 15 years. Not because they are broken but because new ones a much more efficient and the wiring is already there. My friend takes those old panels and installes them on his own garage and sheds. Free electricity.
I was forced to change my panels last summer. Half of my array was torn off the roof during a microburst storm.
Fortunately, insurance covered all the replacement costs except my deductible.
What’s the story with the rapidly collapsing revenues in 2023 and 2024 – were deal-crucial tax benefits/credits removed?
And what happens to home-use and grid-feed systems if the installer companies have gone BK? Will in-home and grid-feed systems still work or are they now inoperative junk?
California changed their rate structure for solar (Net Energy Metering 3.0) making it a less attractive proposition and CA is the largest solar market in the country. There were a ton of predictions at the time that the change would put a lot of solar companies out of business.
Much like electric vehicles, there’s a limit to the number of potential customers. The cost has to pencil in both payback and public display of lifestyle choices.
China flooded the market, especially in Europe, which caused the prices to drop precipitously. Cheap Chinese panels are really hard to compete against for the higher efficiency providers.
“And what happens to home-use and grid-feed systems if the installer companies have gone BK? Will in-home and grid-feed systems still work or are they now inoperative junk?”
Unsure what happens to folks who fell for the Sunrun scam, as there you’re selling your power to them rather than directly to the utility.
Many of us own our PV arrays outright – I net meter directly with the electric company and only pay when my usage occasionally exceeds production during winter.
I haven’t heard from my installer in over a year – they could have gone BK for all I know.
Could call these Icarus stocks
That sure comes to mind every time.
Looking at you TSLA
Only “fossil fuels” are viable energy. If anything else was, EVERYONE would be using it. Nuclear is making a comeback and hopefully bridges the gap, and batteries could help when the technology matures, but Fusion will be the game changer.
The cheapest most reliable energy source by miles is hydro-electric.
It is also renewable. The sun’s energy evaporates the water to fall as rain upstream, which is then harnessed running downstream.
Too Bad there’s limited suitable locations for hydro.
Nick Kelly,
“…most reliable energy source by miles is hydro-electric.”
Well, yes and no, because when there is a drought, hydro generation gets cut because there is not enough water flow. This happened in California lots of times, and also in your back yard with BC Hydro in 2023, 2024, and so far in 2025 when BC Hydro became a net importer of electricity from the US grid, and during the period, the US overall became a net exporter of electricity to Canada. I mean, thank you, we love selling electricity to Canada, but Canadians are complaining about it, and it’s quite a struggle over there at BC Hydro right now:
https://energyfuturesinstitute.ca/f/bc-hydro-moves-to-address-electricity-deficit-amid-imports
Wind and solar are cheaper by magnitutes. But that doesn’t really matter.
Hydro has its issues. For one, in the industrialized world, there are basically no underutilized rivers. We have what we have and we can’t grow it.
More, we have basically overbuild hydrocapacity. A dam does not stand forever and there are many smaller hydro dams where the maintanance cost is not covered. It becomes more economical to dismantel the dam after 50-80 years. A crumbling dam can become a hughe hazard.
The other “hidden” cost of dams are incredible evaporation. That depends obviously on the climate the dam is build in, but eg. Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) evaporates around 800,000 acre-feet or 6.22ft of water. (around 200-260 billion gallons of water per year)
“This loss is comparable to the total annual municipal and agricultural consumption in states like Utah or Nevada—even before accounting for other forms of loss like leakage or canal transit”
Then there is the ecological impact but I guess there’s nothing without…
(PS: Cadillay Desert should be mandatory reading for everyone in the South-West of the USA)
Or the dams get decommissioned/blown because the tribal folks lost their ‘usual and accustomed’ fishing/harvesting areas and the fish passage impeded migration.
There just is no pleasing everyone. Excuse the side track – we are supposed to be talking about solar.
Cheap and reliable, but mostly tapped out here in the US. Pretty much all of the larger locations are already in use. Micro-generators on smaller streams could be a cool idea in areas where there’s already flow-control dams, but it generally takes a fair bit of water to make the process worthwhile. We could always dam up Niagara Falls if we need to.
Niagara was one of the first if not the first generating sites in US. No longer is don’t know why. Two teams competed for contract: one led by Edison with DC power, other from Westinghouse using the new fangled AC designed by N Tesla. The politicians couldn’t make up their minds, so they split it into two with each team doing their thing. As late as the 60’s, students arriving at a college near one of the original Con Ed plants were told that that the place was on DC and lots of their stuff wouldn’t work.
For sure drought is an issue for hydro-electric and global warming is making them more likely. In 2010 the largest US facility, the Hoover Dam, warned it might have to stop generating at all if the level in Lake Mead continued to fall.
Everyone is using it. From greenland to the antarctica, solar power is only rivaled by wind on cost. And yes, today that is even true including batteries.
Solar photovoltaic power is without a doubt on of if not the cheapest sources of electeic power for new construction. China installed 270GW of solar power last year, not because they are stupid and it’s not viable, but because it’s a cheap and efficient source of electric power that doesn’t have any associated fuel costs. Solar power was also the largest source of new electric capacity last year in the US. Here is an article that explains why solar power is taking off everywhere. Between 2009 and 2024, the levelized cost of electricity generated from solar power fell by 88%.
https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind are the cheapest sources of electricity as measured by levelized cost of electricity for new builds. The costs associated with building new wind and solar power plants has fallen exponentially over the past decades at a rate that corresponds to the total amount of solar PV and wind power installed as the industries become more efficient due to learning curves.
There is a lower bound to fossil fueled power beyond which producers will not expand production because it’s not profitable. This puts a floor under the levelized cost of electricity of fossil fueled power.
Renewables do not have this problem because the fuel cost is free, their costs are determined by the cost of the technology and installation costs. As more renewable power is installed, the technology becomes more efficient and the industries themselves become more efficient due to learning curves. This is why spending money to expand renewable energy was a good investment.
This is also why both Texas and California are all in on wind and solar, despite vastly different politics.
It’s foolish to not develop our renewable resources and the associated manufacturing supply chains here in the US due to a political preference to assist the fossil fuel industries.
Ultimately, consumers will pay more over time as we depend more on fossil fuels for energy generation while simultaneously expanding our energy use to bring new industries home, for AI, crypto, etc.
All of this is happening along with exporting massive volumes of oil products and natural gas while the Trump administration simultaneously cuts efficiency standards that help keep costs down and allow more efficient use of our resources.
Going all in on fossil fuels while working to prevent the free market from allowing renewable power to succeed like the Trump administration is doing will increase costs for fossil fuels and fossil fueled power here at home, especially if we continue to export insane volumes of oil products and natural gas. Petroleum exports are why gas prices aren’t well in the $2 range with oil being in the $60/barrel range.
Quote Wolf : Solar power generation surged 26.9% in 2024 to 303,167 GWh, utility scale and rooftop solar combined. This is not “capacity” but electricity generated and used.
Trouble with home roof top solar is that much of the energy is generated when there’s nobody there.
Why is that trouble? It goes back to the grid, or to a battery.
Take a look at the real-time data from CA ISO (California Independent Service Operator) when you get the chance. They coordinate electricity generation across a chunk of the state with generation, usage, and price data all available.
Long story short, you have to match supply to demand and you don’t get to pick when the sun shines. California’s pushed for solar power for years now, including requiring solar panels for new construction since at least 2020. Solar basically works from ~8am to ~6pm, and electricity demand peaks at 8pm, several hours later. Batteries are expensive and California’s only really brought that capacity up to speed in the past two years. They rely heavily on natural gas when the sun doesn’t shine.
Under California’s old net metering, that meant you gave your utility relatively worthless noon solar power in exchange for rather expensive 8pm natural gas power. Demand mismatch means that solar power can be practically worthless ( $100/MWh (Megawatt Hour, 1000 KWh’s that your power is typically priced at). Who makes up the balance? Everyone without solar paying 30 cents a KWh.
As Sandy mentioned above, California reformed their net metering program two years ago so new homes will only receive credits worth roughly 7.5 cents a KWh. That really pushes new home construction to install a battery system at which point you start to question whether or not a grid connection even makes sense, or they might try to get away without having solar instead.
1. Your AC is there. It’s free usage of AC, so you can run it when it’s hot outside, and when you come home at night, your home nicely refrigerated?
2. Batteries also perform miracles with solar installations, as pointed out a gazillion times here.
3. And if you’re connected to the grid (some people with solar are not), you can sell the excess to your power company (net metering).
It seems like a lot of the roof top solar companies weren’t so much in the solar business as the finance industry. I’ve had a ton of people stop by my house and try to sell me roof top solar, but always with a lease. And a very expensive lease. I get that a lot of folks can’t afford the up front investment, but leasing allows for a lot of pricing shenanigans. Roof top solar will make financial sense when companies offer to rent my roof to install solar for generating electricity and reselling to the market.
Reuters reported about 2 weeks ago that both the UK and the US discovered undocumented communication devices in inverters and batteries from more than one manufacturer from China.
I know from buying defense equipment that we were super cautious about making sure electronics did not come from China because of the obvious potential for espionage or sabotage. Think about the Hamas cell phones for example. I really think that there’s going to be a market for American made batteries for the BESS systems which are proliferating across North America and the rest of the world right now. At least they would be safe from Chinese espionage
Let’s talk long-term reliability of solar installations.
We have had a 10kW ground mounted array in operation for 15 years now. Four strings of 10 panels each with a single string inverter. This system has been very reliable. We only had a single panel failure (a cell shorted and overheated) in all these years. Panel replacement was easy despite both the vendor and installer being out of business (found a used one with identical dimensions). Overall the reliability of the installation exceeded my expectations.
Today, a lot of installers push panel level micro-inverters or optimizers to gain a few % in efficiency. What people don’t consider is that these electronics live in a very hostile environment. Roof-top temperatures of 130+ deg F are not unheard of. Electronics hate heat. They will fail. Finding and replacing one of these failed microinverters on the roof is difficult. Newer versions of microinverters may not be compatible with older versions and cannot be installed in the same array. Now you get to replace all your microinverters. Of course, should the vendor go out of business you are stuck too.
What to do? My advice, keep it simple. Stay ground-mounted if at all possible, use string inverters vs panel level micro inverters. Design for long-term reliability. Don’t bet on the 20-30 year warranties the vendors advertise.
Here’s a thought. How about solar and wind find their niche in the energy mix. This green hype that everything has to be wind/solar is just driving the bus directly toward a bridge abutment.
The real world results are so predictable. “Investors” losing their arses on this “only wind/solar” mistake is just the financial side. When the output, reliability, and results finally determine their actual place in the energy mix, only then will any true value of these firms and their projects become clear. Just one old man’s opinion.
Thank you. A whole lot of people on either side of the debate fail to grasp that it’s a right tool for the right job proposition. We need ALL of it, just the right energy source for the need. There is no perfect energy source, it all comes with some kind of drawback. That all being said, we are one big innovation in battery energy density and charge times to turn a lot of things on their head.
Investors will find a way to turn anything into a bubble, it’s in their nature and they will follow each other off a cliff for no good reason just to make thirty-five cents.
“utility scale and rooftop solar combined”. It would be interesting to separate the two. I don’t think there is much hope for utilities getting into solar power in a big way. It is too unreliable. However, solar panels can be useful for homes and businesses, who must use utilities’ power when the sun doesn’t shine.
As for energy overall, the best course is the small scale nuclear power plants, natural gas, and coal plants with filtered emissions. Hydro kills rivers, solar only works when it is sunny, and wind only when it is windy (plus wind turbines are very ugly and kill birds).
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/wind-power-bird-deaths
Wind turbines kill an estimated 200,000-1.2 million birds a year in the US.
For reference, cats kill an estimated 2.4 billion birds a year in the US. So, if you’re really worried about birds and not just looking for any excuse to be biased against wind power while claiming to care about the environment, reducing the stray cat population by 0.01% would achieve double the number of saved lives of birds compared to shutting down all of the wind power in the US.
Additionally let’s not pretend coal strip mines, oil and gas drilling etc don’t disrupt the environment of birds and kill them as well. How many sea birds do you think Deepwater Horizon killed?
Texas tried, and failed, to pass legislation requiring any renewable energy installation built would have an equivalent load of on-demand power built or battery storage. That would have provided reliable benefit, not simply intermittent power.