The labor market started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and it continued through March.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Layoffs and discharges plunged by 222,000 workers in March from February, seasonally adjusted, to 1.56 million (blue line in the chart below), the lowest since November 2023, and far below the pre-pandemic range, despite the layoffs and discharges at federal, state, and local governments that soared to 107,000 workers, the highest since the end of the Census taking period in late 2020.
These are workers who got fired with or without cause – a common feature of the US labor market – and workers who got laid off for economic reasons. But it does not include retirements, deaths, etc., which are in the category of “other separations.” And it does not include people who quit voluntarily to take a better job elsewhere; those folks are included in “quits” below.
The three-month average, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles and revisions, declined to 1.67 million, the lowest since August 2024 (red line). This data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today is based on surveys of about 21,000 work locations.
Quits soared by 82,000 workers in March from February, to 3.33 million, the highest since July 2024, despite a drop in quits at government work sites.
These are people who voluntarily quit their jobs – not including retirements, deaths, etc. – such as to take a hopefully better job somewhere else.
At just private sector employers (chart below), quits soared by 91,000 workers, to 3.15 million, the highest since April 2024. The three-month average soared to 3.09 million.
A higher rate of quits means workers feel more confident and/or see better opportunities elsewhere.
But quits are still below pre-pandemic levels, as employers succeeded in scaring the bejesus out of their employees by announcing mass-layoffs starting in mid-2022, a strategy with which they attempted – successfully, I would have to say – to calm down the enormous churn in their workforce during the pandemic when employees quit jobs in huge numbers, and employers were forced to pay much higher wages to hang on to the ones they still had, and to hire new workers to fill the slots left behind by quitting employees. This churn got to be very expensive and reduced productivity, and employers began to reassert their power in mid-2022 and got employees to hang on to their jobs and be grateful they even had jobs.
These still lower-than-prepandemic quits means fewer job openings left behind than before, as we’ll see in a moment. And for employers, that’s a good thing.
Hires jumped by 41,000 in March from February, to 5.41 million, seasonally adjusted, the most hires since September 2004.
The three-month average rose by 12,000 to 5.38 million, the highest since November 2024.
Labor turnover, or what creates job openings: Employees quitting their jobs, getting fired, laid off, or discharged for other reasons, such as retirements; and to a small extent, employers increasing the size of their staff (as tracked by the nonfarm payrolls).
In March, there were 3.33 million quits and 1.56 million layoffs and discharges, for a total of 4.89 million not counting retirements and other discharges, versus just 228,000 new payroll jobs created (which was a healthy number).
So a low number of quits, layoffs, and discharges leave fewer job openings behind, which explains the drop in job openings. This is not a measure of new jobs being created, but of churn in the labor force — also indicated in the title of the data JOLTS, where the L and T stand for Labor Turnover. And the churn has calmed down.
Job openings declined by 288,000 in March from February, to 7.19 million, the smallest number since September. This includes government job openings, which dropped month-to-month by 59,000, to 833,000 openings, the lowest since early 2021.
Private-sector job openings declined by 229,000 to 6.36 million (chart below). The three-month average declined by 92,000 in March to 6.6 million job openings.
This JOLTS data of job openings is not based on online job postings (fake or otherwise), but on surveys of about 21,000 private-sector and government work locations.
Regaining momentum: As the above charts of layoffs and discharges, quits, and hires show, the labor market, which had been losing momentum through mid-2024, started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and that turnaround has continued through March.
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I quit…actually retiring in July, so count me out!! Leaving behind “for lease” retail space, adding to CRE vacancy rate. It’s all a numbers game.
Then we had Liberation Day and the soft data has been bad ever since. It’s still less than a month since the bombshell and the uncertainty hasn’t yet crystalised into hard actions. It’s still wait and see, but things can’t go on like this.
The media, from the WSJ to the NY Times, across the political spectrum, the blogosphere, the social media, ALL of them have been LYING to Americans about the tariffs from day one, bombarding them with bullshit and lies and braindead idiocies, ceaselessly fearmongering, every day all day long, in their efforts to sacrifice everything, including the entire US economy, at the altar of high stock prices, fat corporate profit margins, and one-sided globalization. I have never seen anything like that. No wonder everyone is in a sour mood and all the soft data is shitty. But there is an economic reality out there: businesses trying to make their businesses work, and consumers making records amounts of money and spending it, and having fun.
I agree. It’s hard to believe & understand.
Just like it’s hard to believe 55% of Dems would like to see Trump die. Or lots of them get excited when a judge keeps ICE from detaining someone who’s not supposed to be here. Or even people praising Luigi Mangione for killing a UHC executive.
There’s not that makes much sense anymore.
100%. Plus Vance.
Appreciate your comments and insights Wolf, I think you’re spot on.
Keep going
Howdy Lone Wolf. “businesses trying to make their businesses work, and consumers making records amounts of money and spending it, and having fun. ”
AMEN Thank You for that
All is good, Bubba, the sky is blue, stonks are going back up, houses are plentiful, there is a chicken in every pot, Musk is going back to rule Tesla, and you can buy a CyberTruck without a wait.
This is America….remember!
Soft data is soft because it is limp and doesn’t please anyone lol
Wolf – my brain/memory are running behind my coffee and meds this AM, so I hope you’ll forgive a question you’ve doubtlessly answered in the past – is there sub-data in the labor stats reflecting those in service vs.industry vs.other sectors? (not asking for more charts, just curious).
Many thanks.
may we all find a better day.
Yes, there is, in terms of industries. The real weak point is government. That’s now a trend, not a monthly squiggle.
Wolf,
1) The G as weak point may be a trend for the last few *months* but I’d be willing to bet a fair amount that the G was an extremely strong grower (percentage of the whole wise) over the last 3-4 years (especially from mid 2023 until December 2024).
From mid 2023 to December 2024, what percentage of payroll jobs added were at local/state/federal G level (not even including G paid contractor army) or in heavily G subsidized sectors (healthcare, where the G pays about 50% of all sector revenues).
2) “In March, there were 3.33 million quits and 1.56 million layoffs and discharges, for a total of 4.89 million not counting retirements and other discharges, versus just 228,000 new payroll jobs created (which was a healthy number).
I *really* don’t want to start a fight in an area of long standing personal confusion (JOLTS numbers) but I’m honestly just trying to get some clarity here – are those 3.33 million quits and 1.56 million layoffs actual *monthly* numbers (like the new *net* payroll job adds) or are they *annualized* numbers (in which case, why are they placed in the context of the *monthly* payroll adds).
If those *millions* are in fact monthly, that would mean that something like 39 *million* quits happen per year (out of maybe 165 million total jobs) and 19 *million* layoffs occur per year.
That would be an astronomical amount of churn. About 58 million employment turnover per *year) – well over 33% of all jobs.
That just doesn’t seem possible to me.
What am I missing?
cas127,
1. “…are those 3.33 million quits and 1.56 million discharges and layoffs actual *monthly* numbers” like the new *net* payroll job adds) or are they *annualized* numbers…”
They’re monthly numbers, out of 160 million nonfarm payroll jobs. Yes there is a lot of turnover in the labor market. Lots of younger workers change jobs every year or two, during the pandemic more often. Companies have to constantly hire to replace people who left or were fired. It’s a massive constant flow. And it was back in my day of having to deal with hiring.
2. The vast majority of local government employment is teachers. The vast majority of state government employment is in education (state colleges and universities) and healthcare.
3. Federal government employment as percent of total employment has dropped below 1.9% of total nonfarm employment. It’s just a small part of total employment (the spikes are during the Census taking periods):
Sure seems ‘off’ relative to news items. UPS laying off 20,000. Among many other similar, albeit smaller, stories.
Did you microwave your brain this morning??? Read the article whose headline you linked. It says that UPS lost much of the Amazon business over the years, its largest customer, because Amazon has increasingly switched to its own delivery services (mostly handled by contractors). FedEx has the same problem. And I see the Amazon-branded vans (driven by contractors) a lot more than the UPS vans. Contractors also use their own vehicles that are not marked, but often wear an Amazon vest. That’s a UPS problem, having lost its hugest customer, and not an economic problem. Read the articles before you stick braindead headlines into here to spread your narrative, you dufus.
Note to self:
Read the articles to avoid being called a dufus.
😁
Amendment to note to self: Read the articles whose headlines you post into here!
Amazon is more a competitor
to UPS, FedEx, and USPS instead of
a customer. Perhaps the tariffs
will slow their predatory business
practices.
Howdy Sporkfed. Just canceled my Amazon Account. Now if I can only find what I need ” Made in the USA ” May not be buying as much stuff for awhile and will just give more $$$ to the kids…….
Also UPS sucks. I will not order from a company who only ships UPS and I tell them so. I order shoes once in a blue moon from a company that shipped UPS. I told them to change to Fedex because UPS sucks, or I will order from someone else. The rep said they had been getting a lot of complaints about UPS. I ordered shoes a few weeks ago from them and they came by Fedex.
BTW, small typo: “Hires jumped by 41,000 in March from February, to 5.41 million, seasonally adjusted, the most hires since September 2004.” Maybe should be 2024 instead of 2004.
You people seriously latch onto every negative headline.
Thankyou, President Trump. And their will be more great economic news yet to come!
Good, now looking forward to seeing all those tax receipts! The Red Team has full control, they have no excuse for not balancing the budget.
Do you have figures for number of retirements?
The numbers are small. “Other separations,” which includes retirements and deaths (while employed) declined by 15,000 in March from February, to 225,000. Of them, 183,000 were in the private sector, and 42,000 in government. Not seasonally adjusted.
These “other separations” are down about 25% from the peak in late 2021.
Wolf – are there any estimates made by anyone of the effect on the work force of deportations? How much of the workforce is made up by undocumented aliens? Are we facing a labor shortage?