Inland Empire PMI spikes to highest since early 2021, New Orders spike to record: Private sector is dynamic, but not always in linear ways.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Corporate frontrunning of tariffs is now a big thing. And it’s creating activity in the US goods sector where companies are trying to get goods into the US before tariffs are applied, and where companies in the US are trying to shift more production to their plants in the US, from their plants in Mexico or elsewhere, and to suppliers in the US, which is a strategy that for example automakers are now trying to implement where they can, though it takes time to do that. Providing an incentive to move more manufacturing to the US is what tariffs are all about.
Consumers may also try to front-run tariffs with big-ticket items, which, along with heftier tax refunds this year, may explain why new vehicle sales rose to the highest level for any Q1 since 2019, on hot growth in March, after solid growth in January and February.
These efforts would be a boost for the US economy, as long as they persist. Goods are only a relatively small part of the economy, with services being the vast majority (about two-thirds of GDP), and services are not directly impacted by tariffs. But manufacturing matters a lot for all kinds of reasons, and there are now shifts underway that may not always be simple or linear or predictable.
There’s more evidence of that. The “Inland Empire PMI” tracks companies in the goods-producing and goods-handling sectors in the “Inland Empire” in Southern California, an industrial region that ties Asia via the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to the rest of the US. As with other PMIs, a value above 50 means expansion, the higher the value above 50, the faster the expansion. A value below 50 means contraction.
The overall Inland Empire Manufacturing PMI spiked to 65.7 for March, the highest since the reopening burst of the economy in the first half of 2021, reflecting “robust expansion in the region’s manufacturing sector,” according to the Institute of Applied Research at the California State University, San Bernardino, which produces the PMI.
Quite a reversal from the weakness seen in December (42.5). For comparison, the dotted purple line denotes the national ISM Manufacturing PMI by the Institute for Supply Management. In January, the ISM PMI had seen the first significant expansion since 2022, and in February, it still showed an expansion though at a slower pace. But in March, it fell into a mild contraction (image via the Institute of Applied Research).
The Production Index rose to 67.9, the third month in a row of growth, “signaling a sustained recovery in production activity across the region.” It was also higher than in March 2024 and March 2023.
The New Orders Index spiked to a record 78.6, the third month in a row of sharp acceleration, “signaling robust demand,” the report said.
“However, it remains to be seen whether this level of activity can be sustained,” the report notes perhaps based on the theory that this spike in orders could reflect corporate frontrunning of the tariffs, and frontrunning tends to entail a hangover later. The red dots mark the Marches (image via the Institute of Applied Research):
The Employment Index jumped to 67.9 in March, from 59.4 in February, the third month in a row of accelerating expansion. “The continued upward trend indicates that the recovery in the manufacturing job market is gaining strength,” the report noted. And it added, perhaps with an eye on this frontrunning situation: “While the sharp increase reflects a notable pickup in hiring activity, it remains important to monitor whether this pace of growth will continue in the coming months.”
The Commodity Price Index declined to 67.9, from 75.0 in February, meaning that commodity prices are rising but at a slower pace than in the prior month. And overall input costs remain “elevated.”
The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 57.1 in March, from 50.0 in February, indicating slower deliveries and worsening “supply chain delays” compared to the previous month.
“Economic challenges and emerging opportunities.”
Despite the growth in business, there were a lot of concerns among the executives about the tariffs and trade-policy uncertainty – “top of mind for many respondents,” the report noted – along with worries that the surge in business activity might not last.
“With ongoing tariff uncertainty – particularly affecting the import of raw materials and the export of goods – sectors like logistics, manufacturing, and agriculture are expected to be disproportionately impacted. As a result, the region is likely to face a mix of economic challenges and emerging opportunities, creating a more dynamic business environment,” the report noted.
“While potential policy changes may sound alarming, it may also create new opportunities for specific industries or sectors in the region, capitalizing on them in a sustainable way will require coordinated efforts and strategic long-term planning,” the report said.
The private sector in the US is very dynamic, adjusting to changing situations in myriad ways to make the best of it and take advantage of opportunities. And this kind of dynamic sprinkles some additional cold water on the idea of a looming recession.
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could it be due the anticipation of tariff? I know some factories have been piling parts since Trump won the election. Everyone see the tariff from a mile away. Tomorrow 104% tariff on Chinese products. I think, with almost certainty, we won’t see any made in China products for the next few years at least. Well, maybe if Trump makes exceptions to iPhone.
“could it be due the anticipation of tariff?”
This is a big topic in the article, from the very first line. But there is a lot more to it, so read the article.
Wolf, what happened to “RTGDFA”? Have you become nice?
Yes, regretfully, something unfortunate happened and I’ve become temporarily nice. Doc says take two aspirin and it’ll blow over.
Rob Peter, pay Paul.
I just did it with a pair of shoes, not sure how available they’re going to be going forward, and my old ones are wearing out…
Also I didn’t want to pay an extra 10%-20% or so if prices go up – May not seem like much money, but why throw it away?
Pretty sure there’s a lot of that going on, not just big ticket items.
If you’re pretty sure you’re gonna need something in the next six months or so, may as well buy it now.
1. By increasing demand in this way, you’re pushing up prices. That’s how inflation gets started, and got started last time: a sudden jump in demand (before the tariffs are even implements). It’s your fault, LOL
2. How are we supposed to get a recession when consumers are going out and spending like drunken sailors?
It’s a $90 pair of shoes and I bought them maybe a month or two early.
This feels like an overly broad assignment of blame for me causing inflation.
Worst case scenario it’s a hedge against potentially increasied prices and lack of availability.
Businesses do it all the time, and a hedge is typically a conservative approach, the opposite of what drunken sailors are most frequently known for.
I dont believe a recession is coming. The inflation is here to stay with this unstoppable consumer spending. We may possibly have stagflation though: stagnating economy with rising inflation. Just like in early 1980s.
I bought 5 pairs of high-end shoes in late ’24 which went from circa $120 at the time to $165 now.
I also rushed in for early COVID to stock staples which rose or became unavailable. I am told I feed inflation , but hey, last out of the burning theater pays the price. Somebody will scoop that value, if not me. Being too much of a kind caring person leaves me at the back of a line with shortages. This is the fundamental logic of investing, too. And the swift and motivated in the industrial USA and elsewhere will prevail. Being shell-shocked only makes sense for so long. Good article!
That’s exactly the inflationary mindset that powers inflation. If you’re part of causing inflation, don’t complain about inflation.
The way the Fed deals with this mindset is that it hikes policy rates so high that funding gets too expensive and businesses and consumers cut back, leading to big layoffs, and a large number of unemployed people, who then slash their spending and you, after you’ve been laid off, will not try to front-run the next wave of inflation, and your neighbors and friends see that you’re unemployed, and they get worried and cut back. And demand drops, and companies’ sales drop, and in this environment of dropping sales, they have to cut prices and offer deals to stimulate demand, which ends that wave of inflation. This is why a recession with high unemployment rates can cure inflation. And this is maybe where we’re headed: higher rates by the Fed to whack this inflationary mindset out of your mind.
Frontrunning makes perfect economic sense. It does lead to a binge in buying (looks like drunken sailors), but frontrunning cannot last forever. How much stuff can you buy because you are worried about higher prices ahead? There is a limit. Few people need two new dryers, two new washers. When frontrunning diminishes, demand declines, prices drop.
Yup I’ve been front running a bunch of major purchases in anticipation of this exact moment (tariffs at 104% but remember it’s just a tax of profits?!).
I remember the supply shocks of COVID and not being able to get what I needed. I now have enough of everything made in china to not need anything big for the next year.
Good luck everyone, we have a crazy drunk person at the wheel. Can’t wait to pay the Trump Tax.
Ah yes. China is such an angel of a government
“Don’t waste your money on a new set of speakers
You get more mileage from a cheap pair of sneakers
Next phase, new wave, dance craze, anyways
It’s still rock and roll to me”
The number of people who know what you are quoting is shrinking every day. Good song, brings back memories. You and I are getting old Prairie Rider.
😁
Wonder if the Burger Bar in Redlands (one of the Inland Empire’s tri-cities) is still where the very coolest cars hang out?
Kiddies……
Insolvency please – NASDAQ: OPEN
Are these house flippers STILL in business?
Not just flippers, new home construction spec as well. Close today was $0.97. Good Lord we’re close!
They are still buying where I live, Wake County NC. According to public records, they hold deeds to 179 properties as of today in my county. It’s insane.
Maybe they’re not “still buying.” Maybe they just haven’t been able to sell them yet, and they still hold them, trying to sell them. Because buying at whatever price is a lot easier than selling them profitably, as they have found out, which is why they’re getting wiped out.
To add, from Rocket Housing:
Summary: A total of 1,128 homes were sold or pending in Wake County in March 2025, up by 18.1% month-over-month. Of the 1128 sold homes, 51% were sold under asking, 28% were sold at asking, and and 21% were sold over asking.
-Wake County Housing Market Report March 2025 – Homes
I make no claims to knowing which, if any, narrative this snap shot reinforces.
Recent transactions to OpenDoor from public records:
2014 GRASSY BANKS DR RALEIGH NC 27610 – 3/27/2025
3973 WHITE KESTREL DR RALEIGH NC 27616 – 3/24/2025
I know it’s only two data points, but they appear to still be active.
Their crappy algorithm may be telling them to buy when the transaction price is below assessed value.
My mailbox is full. Cash offers on the back of a postcard but that is distress buying. I don’t think the normal market is doing well at all. In the 1970s distress buyers were all over. You try to sell a car for $500 and ten guys show up offering you $100, and they all say the same thing, I know you lost your job, take this. The 10Y auction yesterday didnt go well (blame the foreigners) the yield curve is steepening, hard, and that foreshadows, if the Fed drops rates then bond yields rise even more. Gold is up 90 dollars today. I am waiting for the Arabs to say no mas, and the lines to queue at the gas station.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will save us. /s
MW: U.S. stocks suffer major reversal, swoon lower as White House confirms 104% China tariff
Dow 37,645.59 -320.01 -0.84%
S&P 500 4,982.78 -79.47 -1.57%
Nasdaq 15,267.91 -335.35 -2.15%
“The private sector in the US is very dynamic, adjusting to changing situations in myriad ways to make the best of it and take advantage of opportunities.”
It’s true, the U.S. has the most dynamic economy in the world, by far. Those who claim China will catch up and surpass America are sadly mistaken. The American behemoth — situated across all sectors, particularly high tech — has simply left lower-value mass manufacturing to the Han Chinese, and there’s no future in this. China wants to abandon the heavily polluting, low-profit-margin manufacturing for First World technology, but you can only steal and pirate so much before you have to innovate. And innovation hasn’t been part of the Chinese psyche since gunpowder and porcelain, centuries ago.
The PRC is already way ahead of the US in many respects and is rapidly headed for being the number one economy in the world.
Dark Sport
“The American behemoth — situated across all sectors, particularly high tech — has simply left lower-value mass manufacturing to the Han Chinese, and there’s no future in this.”
This is stupid BS on many levels. Here is one level: The US is the second largest manufacturing country by value added in the world, behind China, but bigger than the next three countries combined, and produces all kinds of things, even hoodies and T-shirts now in automated manufacturing plants, and you can buy them at Walmart, thank you!
> And innovation hasn’t been part of the Chinese psyche since gunpowder and porcelain, centuries ago.
Buddy, you dropped your calipers.
You are so behind the times it’s actually insane
I’m actually dumbfounded.. I don’t know if you’re trolling or actually that dull
They spent 1000x less money to build AI as good as the ones our firms have built
They are close or almost on par with Quantum tech
And those are just 2 that immediately come to mind
California manufacturing is unusual in that the state has some of the highest labor costs in the country (living expenses are commensurately horrible, too) and salaries are the highest line item on the balance sheet for draining cash away. A better example than California would be Texas, which is intermediate between the Deep South and California in its variables and factors. In Texas, things are looking up after a relatively period of stagnation. The SpaceX project is a high prestige project, and various new factories are scheduled for construction there…
Beer is cheaper in California than Texas.
Health insurance is cheaper in California too. I know when we changed from a Texas plan to a California plan, getting the same Blue Cross high-deductible HSA-compliant plan (not yet Anthem at the time).
Health insurance premiums in California used to be great before Obamacare, I paid $72/month.
Obviously a long time ago but well below other states. Now Florida is cheaper for my insurance than California was after California regulated taxed and Obamacare finally killed it.
We ordered a washer and dryer and a new DJI drone to beat the tariffs.
I bookmarked this report. Assuming the Trump Tariffs hold we will see in the next few months how resilient America’s economy is to the adjustments in world trade that is coming. And will it truly introduce a new golden age?
I’m debating between recession or depression but hey you’d probably get good odds on “new golden age” in Vegas!
Time will tell
As painful as this all might become, de-coupling as much as is feasible from China should be a 90% issue, as it should appeal to almost everyone on the left and the right:
1. Environmental reasons
2. Labor protection reasons
3. Unfair trade practice reasons
4. Intellectual property reasons
5. National security reasons
But alas, everyone likes cheap televisions….
I care only about environmental and labour issues within my country so I can claim credit. China is a communist country, so they have their communist party to look after their workers and farmers.
The problem is that ignoring environmental and labor issues lowers the cost of goods sold when compared to companies in places with stricter environmental and labor laws and regulations. This motivates industry to move to the lowest regulated areas.
Example: In the days before the US had national child labor laws, the furniture industry moved from the NorthEastern US to the Southern states. (No internal tariffs in the US.)
The lesson here is that any free trade agreements should include rules on things such as environmental and labor laws to maintain a fair marketplace. This could have reduced the gutting of the US manufacturing sector.
Bingo. Hard to provide good wages with competition from low cost labor. It’s a race to the bottom.
“any free trade agreements should include rules on things such as environmental and labor laws to maintain a fair marketplace.”
Obama had a Trans Pacific partnership designed to do all that, isolate China, and not kneecap our trading partners. trump attacked it as one of hi9s brilliant (from a propaganda perspective, like birthism) attacks of he era. Hillary whose judgment I never respected backed off it. So now by total autarky we are supposedly winning? Big “maybe.” Like, we import he environmental issues we had earlier externalized. And healthy high-functioning workers here are still very expensive.
Sinking the TPP was one of the better things Trump did. I wrote about that monster (the TPP) at the time it was being finalized. It needed to be sunk. That was the only rational thing to do.
“But alas, everyone likes cheap televisions….”,eh…..,have not had a TV in over 25 years.
I do watch say a movie a week on laptop but that’s about it.
I was very lucky in that me parents gave me the gift of reading at a very young age and has stuck with me thru the decades.
Okay
Thanks for the captivating story
Being a digitally immersed addict is now being repurposed and weaponized against certain populations vulnerable to it. Hiking prices across networks was the kinder gentler form of it. I believe we are just seeing the beginning of this practice. It was always latent in the setup of the technology, and the political possibilities. This has not been duly regulated, so it has escaped its former parameters, in a top-down way from government.
Right-on cacheton!
There are endless interesting things to read. Learning a musical instrument at your own pace, and spending time outdoors, are also very rewarding.
But, most of the cheap televisions are Korean I believe.
Why should we have free trade with a slave state?
I agree on the end goal, but not the method. Going from 0 to 100 is how you cause a crash. It’s impossible to adapt this quickly. If he had rolled out tariffs in a more methodical way, the market wouldn’t be responding like this and we’d be having a much different discussion. For example, “5% today, 10% in 2026, 15% in 2027, 20% in 2028” would give companies time to make plans and adjust.
This. It’s just like Wolf and the Fed’s points about QT. If you do it slower you can go farther. With Tariffs, you can go at a blinding speed, but look where that got us. Slow and steady wins the race. Where’d that stable genius go…
You left out #6. Lawyers, Lawyers and more Lawyers.
Wolf – you BETTER NOT take those two aspirin the doctor suggested. We like the new you. I hope the new personality hangs around. Niceness goes a long way.
I get grumpy too. It’s something I try to work on.
Maybe you can write ‘RMWA’ (read my wonderful article). The new you, that is! 🙂
Perhaps it’s possible with all of the front-running and production shifts there may be a black log of inventory for some goods, actually resulting in price reductions to move the inventory even if it’s only temporary. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Wolf–As best I remember from Econ 101, about fifty years ago, every manufacturing job creates seven service jobs. I wonder if this still holds true?
Sec Lutnick said Sunday that the new factories will be fully automated.
Yes, the engineers will program/repair/adjust the robots and other automated equipment like they always have done in the past. There will be lots of other non-automated jobs in the factory, though.
Some processes cannot be automated.
Take brick laying for example. Construction workers have been dreaming of brick-laying robots for decades, but mortar is such a fine material (a non-Newtonian fluid) that figuring out the force to be applied in order for it to bond just right is close to impossible with sensors. Humans with basic fine motor skills receive far superior feedback from pushing on the brick. Some viral videos have surfaced of brick-laying robots recently, but they appear to be using glue-based adhesive instead of mortar.
Working with cotton and apparel is a similar example – sewing robots are very clumsy compared to 14 year old Bangladeshi girls.
But having been to a few engine factories I’ve never seen one where they could achieve full automation. Pistons always have to be inserted into the engine by a human operator as robots would scratch the cylinder liner and mess things up.
In fact if you closely follow the mechatronics industry you can see that demand for process automation isn’t exactly high, despite labour rates constantly rising. Some experts even say we’ve probably already automated most of the tasks that we were able to and from here on there will only be marginal gains.
Prof. Emeritus
So I just googled: bricklaying robots
And they’re all over the place. Pretty cool to watch those videos. Robots doing dirty work are cool!!! Maybe you should update your knowledge.
Note however, that earthquakes have a field day with classic brick and turn structural walls made of them into sand. So if you ever think you might have an earthquake, use unreinforced brick only for decoration, not structural walls.
They do use them as infill walls nowadays as modern hollow blocks provide great basis for various wiring and piping works that follow in later building stages. It’s also popular on firewalls and many buyers want it for it’s thermal properties.
But filling in a 4x3m plane still takes hours and on a large multi-storey building some form of automation would save dozens of work days. The current crop of construction robots just don’t cut it. However they indeed make satisfying videos – similar to Boston Dynamics.
No need for brick laying when 3D printed houses will probably get rid of most construction labor. Its in its infancy but scaling up shouldn’t be an issue.
What I am seeing in AI development and robotics suggests it will outflank these processes quickly with automation. Yes, some will stubbornly linger, but I’m seeing construction pipelines moving so fast and precisely that humans aren’t allowed in.
In a way. Dad often talked about the hands on labor on the factory floor outnumbering the upstairs office help, 7 to 1 in the 1940’s. When he retired the ratio had flipped by 1990’s…of course the factory was shut down after Rockwell International bought out the stock and transferred all the production, except a few “need it now” orders to Germany. Dad was a skilled die maker/machinist for most of those years. The last few he was a order picker, seniority kept his job. Boy, was he bored.
First timer, I recently discovered this site and like its level-headed takes.
I don’t really understand the big angst about the stock market. There are/were significant problems with the US economy that the stock market never priced in, but now the tariffs are fully priced.
Housing prices are insane, inflation was runaway for 2 years and Powell cut rates way too soon, CRE is f-ed (even safe havens like multifamily). Our debt to GDP ratio is 127% and shows no signs of slowing. We increased spending by 50% during the pandemic and never lowered it.
The biggest risk to the US isn’t tariffs (that’s the biggest risk to wall street). The biggest risk is our debt and interest payments.
yes. we have met the enemy, and he is us.
Eric are right, but the historic rise in debt began in the 1980’s, we as a Nation have had a “debt” since the 1840’s. As far as housing the recession starting in 2006 with over leveraged banks and mortgage holders withdrew some 2+million homes from their owners, with most of them sold to private equity groups for conversion to rentals. It took the new housing builders till 2018 before the same level of new homes by sold price returned to pre-2006. That’s why the mortgage rates have been kept so low so long. Like anything, supply and demand dictate the price. Low inventory for a revitalized economy post recession. The pandemic was a once in a lifetime, if that occurrence, lazy/lax regulation allowed the bank meltdown in 2006.
Remember Enron? A precursor to the bank meltdown, Enron never invented or produced a single product, they just used the system in place. Enron purchased electricity future contracts to sell at a profit. I would worry more about the vast opportunity these tariffs will bring to the wolf in sheep clothing.
Eric I agree with you. The elephant in the room remains unseen and not discussed. Debt of $36 trillion with annual interest payable thereupon in the order of $1 trillion Surely unsustainable?
That ‘room with elephant unseen’ is provided by the Gang of 535 – well-fed, power-drunk, and as loud as the wh0res buying them off.
Last time I checked, it was none of the government’s or the stock market’s business how we spend our money. You are saying that it’s now the government’s job to crash the market in order to stop us spending our own money. Once upon a time the government encouraged us to invest in the stock market to make use of our money for constructive purposes. How times change.
For USMCA compliant companies it’s cheaper to produce in Mexico right now, because Mexico doesn’t have tariffs on raw materials and components like the US does. I’ve heard people discuss moving production from China to Mexico because of this. And if you’re an exporter, it’s a good idea to move production out of the US. US production is for the US, Chinese production is for the rest of the world. The shipping restrictions I’ve heard about being applied in the next few weeks should reinforce this.
Yes we feel like Charlie Brown and the football with this tariff topic.
If the feds want us US manufacturers to close up shop and move to mexico, I wish they would just come out and say it. Their actions are saying it loud and clear.
It seems like they are using Mexico as our lifeboat as we try to decouple from China.
Uncertainty at the US border is compelling people to cancel international travel which is bound to impact the US economy at some point. A retired couple I spoke with yesterday just canceled a trip to Spain and Mexico. My plans to visit Canada and Mexico this year are on hold.
Canadian traffic to Bellingham WA to stock up on goods is down by 50%, severely impacting local businesses. Tourism is about 3% of the US economy.
During my lifetime, threats at the US border that impact tourism have always been from external enemies. Not this time.
I live near the B.C. Border and even when it was closed for 19 months during Covid, I hardly noticed. About the only inconvenience I suffered during Covid was the facial recognition on my phone wouldn’t work with a mask on.
lol. There is no uncertainty at the US border if you have a legal visa
Tourism is an industry that pays crappy wages so people can come up and clog hotels and roads. I lived in Tampa Bay for years and all we really got for focusing on tourism was expensive hotels and traffic.
Orlando to Tampa: “hold my beer, bro.”
OutWest
Last June, we went to Yosemite. It was total utter chaos. Lots of people couldn’t even get in, and those that could get in couldn’t find parking and couldn’t even get out of the car and were just stuck in traffic all day, and the non-moving line of vehicles backing up from the entrance in the afternoon was many miles long (we saw that when we left). It was a horror show. Way too much tourism.
This event forced Yosemite to switch to a reservation system just to get into the park. This is what too much tourism will do. It’s just nuts. Tourism is a low-level economic activity (lodging, car rentals, plane tickets, restaurants), unlike manufacturing.
And worse, the boom in vacation rentals created new demand, took supply off the market, and helped inflate prices for Americans looking for housing (rental or buying). The boom in vacation rentals has distorted the housing markets in touristy locations. It needs to cool off to where hosts put some of those housing units back on the rental or purchase market.
Same situation at Estes Park, Colorado. Traffic is insane, reservations expensive/impossible, and then there are the tourons.
It also impacts nearby attractions like Lilly Lake and Brainard Lake. Reservations required, and last year they were having a heck of a time finding people to staff them. Parking was a nightmare, facilities were poorly maintained, IFthey were even open. Major clusterfudge all around.
The tourons were requesting that the highway department relocate the “deer crossing” signs because too many deer were being hit where they were currently located. You can’t fix stupid!
Mule deer on road to Estes from Boulder…..,sigh!
Years back me friend and I were headed up there,a pack in middle of road(probably get fed by tourists!),me friend she said honk/no movement/so,cranked Motley Crue up to 11!…./still no movement/finally got out and slapped em in ass(lucky I didn’t get kicked)and personally had to herd em off road.
My guess is herding cats the only more challenging job!
Tourism is a major problem with no easy solution. It’s primarily a problem that gets created when people get richer. Lots of people want to go visit places and enjoy them. The only way to stop this is to make them so expensive people can’t go anymore, or to have a hell of a lot more of them. Plus, tourism labor is done of the least productive labor, so you need a lot of workers to operate these places.
the “wealth effect” is the reason people feel richer. knock that out, and watch things return to earth.
The problem here (IMHO) is not too many visitors per se, but the American culture of everyone consuming too way too much space on public roads while driving around in their personally owned automobiles and campers.
Solve this one problem and our national parks (as well as the rest of America) suddenly becomes far more livable.
Agreed Wolf, way back during the last Ice Age, 1998 we drove right into Yosemite, Kings Canyon and camped, reservations were available some 3 months in advance for camping. In 2017 we visited Glacier and Yellowstone National Park, again just a casual drive in, only jams were when Bison were on the road. Post pandemic, the Road to the Sun, in Glacier required a lottery reservation many times as well as camping and accomplishments in park..
Never fear, Great Leader says he will liberate the forests. He has zero appreciation for anything except as a pile of extractable resources and potential walled off luxury hotel to host kleptocrats and house dodgy art pieces that serve a laundry function.
This is a response to the comment below yours not yours
Phleep, you know nothing. You sound like a child. Our wildfires in Colorado were terrible because of overgrown forests and because of beetle kill and because of idiots starting the fires during fire bans.
Actually the state of Colorado actively cuts some of its forests and not a single environmentalist is out there protesting it. So just sit down and shut up
Eric, I have to agree on all your points!
I’d argue we need more national parks to spread out the tourism opportunities. And more staff to support those parts. Ecotourism is well known to be a great economic resource to bring money into rural communities.
Are they crossing illegally? What threats are they facing?
I have friends that have a ranch along the border. They are not letting down their guard….but it has not been this quite on their ranch for along time.
The threat of being disappeared for a few months by ICE if the AI determines (or hallucinates) they have made social media posts critical of Trump, for one.
It’s a low probability, high impact risk that you can’t even really avoid – even burner social media accounts for travel will become targets of suspicion at the border at some point.
Assuming this is for beating tariffs it will be interesting to see future months as well as inventory numbers for businesses who might have consider inventory carrying costs much lower than tariffs.
I feel a lot of the tariffs will go with new negotiations ect.,seems a lot of countries already working on that.
I am a bit of a prepper and thus when see a good deal stock up,got 4 pairs of boots I really like,as daily wear last 2-3 years,I die before then one of me friends scores!I do this with a lot of products that are worth my monies.
Things get very pricey due to tariffs or any reason for high cost learn to do without or find alternatives when I can.
This market action is not going well with Jim Cramer.
JIm Cramer was on CNBC today and was literally sh$tting in his pants (total diarea). trying to explain the recent market action. He had to change his clothes at the break and came back with a different set of pants. His predictions on the stock market have been way off and his charitable trust is getting ready to dump him as their financial advisor. His investment club is going out of business.
There’s an old meme about Cramer. How do you become a millionaire by following Jim Cramer’s stock advice?
Start with billions.
the dow went up by 500 points in the last 12 minutes of trading.
how can any normal person invest in a ridiculous market like this dominated by computers, hft, and algos?
Might I suggest finding something with a historically low valuation, buying it, and then forgetting you own it for the next decade or so?
If you can’t do that, buy t-bills, collect your 4.X percent, and chill?
And for the rest of the time, get back to one’s day job?
You shouldn’t be trading in daily markets anyway
You should be purchasing total market indexes and just let it sit there for ages
If you must listen to Cramer, do the opposite of what he tells you to do.
There was actually an ETF created explicitly to short everything Cramer said buy, and go long everything he said sell. True story.
Unfortunately, the anti-Cramer ETF went into an endless loop when Cramer recommended the anti-Cramer ETF.
Can anyone recommend a mutual fund or ETF (for income) that pays dividend north of 6%? Something like REM maybe (pays around 10% now, monthly I think). REM is in real estate something or other, so not sure how risky that is.
Anyone has any favorites? Thanks in advance!
FKINX ( or a version of it ) it’s paying roughly 6% now but, I would wait for a $2 share price ( it’s 2.22 now ) never missed a dividend since 1948 with an avg total return of roughly 10% over that time frame ; pays divs monthly ; just an idea ; always been a reasonable buy @ $2 a bargain at $1.80 and overvalued @ $2.4 and above – just a thought
PFFA
PBDC also.
REM is mortgage REITs. I think investing in those requires more knowledge and experience because those companies use a lot of debt, so more risky. Just look at long term charts for mreit companies and how massively and sharply they can fall, and never come back. I have several deep in the red.
April 8 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 sold off sharply on Tuesday to close below 5,000 points for the first time in almost a year after it reversed a strong morning rally, while investor hopes faded for any imminent U.S. delays or concessions on tariffs ahead of a midnight deadline. The haircut and shave season is suddenly knocking at the door of swinging dick on Wall Street, the billionaire class is suddenly asking for restraint and reason in system built on uncertainty.
MW: S&P 500 rebound collapses in biggest U-turn since at least 1978. Investors can’t shake tariff jitters.
Meanwhile our president wishes to again strong arm the fed to lower rates. Lets just completely destroy it all. Jeez
Jalopnik: TESLA Sitting On Thousands Of Unsold Cybertrucks; Stops Accepting Own Cars As Trade-Ins…
Where did the one million pre-order deposits for the Cybertruck go??
This article is about March numbers. Ah, we will soon look back on the sunlit uplands of hope and optimism that existed before Liberation Day (… and weep).
The bulk resources markets are predicting a global recession, the stock markets are predicting a global recession, the currency markets are predicting a global recession and the bond markets are predicting no rate cuts. (The Fed will only step in to provide liquidity to small banks when the runs start.)
Well, that’s one viewpoint anyway. We’ll see what CEOs have to say this earnings season.
I know of an American company that imports electronics from China. The company placed an order in December of 2024 to beat the tariffs. The components are now being housed in a warehouse because the demand wasn’t there. They have yet to pay their invoice. Another company I know of is in wait and see mode. They are not ready to build excess inventory just to reduce the added cost of additional tariffs. These two examples are companies that sell products that people can do without if inflation reignites. It would be interesting to know how many other companies face this conundrum.
TNX esta en fuego!
Something must have broken
daily dose of inflation
“Today, the managed care organizations(MCO) that work for the Medicare Advantage (MA) program (also known as Part C) are getting a nice price increase for the 2026 insurance year. This is big business for these companies as over 50% of people on Medicare get their entitled benefits from MA.
MCOs like Humana (HUM:NYSE) are up over 10% intraday (4/8/2025). Medicare-aligned physician group Agilon (AGL:NYSE) is up 30%. Even the big diversified MCOs like Elevance (ELV) and UnitedHealthGroup (UNH) are up 5% and 7%, respectively.”
But it’s not consumer-price inflation because consumers don’t pay this. Many of the Advantage plans are free to consumers, or cost only a small amount per month. It’s just government-pay inflation, LOL
I received notice my annual deductible rose past $4k. I just SMH and threw it in my file box. It’s cheaper to “lease” my wife in order to get pool ACA through the leasing company rather than pay an insane amount for an individual plan. What do working poor do?
In my NY county both Humana and United Health Care dropped their zero premium Advantage plans for 2025.
I expect China to wait it out and retaliate as they have stated. The entire world knows the US politically shifts every four years or so and in the big picture that isn’t a lot of time. They also don’t have to deal with the issues of Western democracies whose primary objective is to get elected. While the US and EU will remain solidly intact militarily, my guess is we see increasing shift in other areas. About time too
They’ll ultimately lose their largest customer then.
Sure but my point was they don’t view time horizons like the US. Policy can shift here every 2 to 4 years and China has 5 years plan that are usually fulfilled. I have no doubt of their ability to meet climate change objectives. Do they face some headwinds? Sure, but who doesn’t.
China didn’t even hesitate a single day to increase tariffs on US goods to 84% and there could be even more coming!
This post really stood out to me, excellent work.
The recession in 2008 was caused by a problem in the financial plumbing that escaped.
As you are showing, the goods producing part of the economy may do well despite tariffs.
But there does seem to be a growing problem with some of the financial plumbing. Perhaps it will escape again. Perhaps we will soon see why the FED has been trying to make room on it’s balance sheet.
Gold recovers almost all of it’s losses (+$114/ounce) since liberation day in 4 hours this morning. And what in the world is the Basis Trade that we should bail out 10 of the largest hedge funds in the world.
“The recession in 2008 was caused by a problem in the financial plumbing that escaped.”
Nope, you’re changing history. The financial crisis was caused by the implosion of the hyper-inflated housing bubble as home prices plunged, which caused mass defaults on mortgages and huge losses for mortgage lenders. At the time, mortgages amounted to $11 trillion. This is not “financial plumbing,” but real-world homes, whose prices deflated, and the debt they carried. That’s what triggered the financial crisis. It then caused an unemployment crisis and the Great Recession, and it spread from there.
But in late 2019, the “financial plumbing” did get clogged up when repo market rates blew out. It didn’t cause a recession or anything else.
“Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that the bar for cutting interest rates is “higher” right now to keep inflation expectations anchored in the face of tariffs — even if the economy weakens and job losses mount.
“In my view, the hurdle to change the federal funds rate one way or the other has increased due to the tariffs,” Kashkari wrote in an essay.
He became the latest Fed policymaker to pour cold water on any hopes for near-term rate cuts amid the market turmoil triggered by President Trump’s trade war.”
i just check the lables on 2 of my prescription drugs that I take once a day. They are made in China. I bet they are making most of the prescription drugs in this country. It’s more than we think. Many of these bottles don’t even list the country of origin.