Investors, second-home buyers, vacation-home buyers do some heavy lifting.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Despite inventories of homes listed for sale that have been rising for three months, sales of existing homes – single-family houses, condos, and co-ops – declined for the fourth month in a row, by 0.9% in May, from April, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million homes, to the lowest sales rate since June 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors today. Compared to May 2019, sales were up 10.9%. Homes sales have now mostly unwound the extravagant spike that started last summer (historic data via YCharts):
Investors play a big role.
In May, 23% of the sales were all-cash, often an indication of institutional investors buying, down from 25% in April. In May 2020, all-cash deals were at 17% of total sales, according to the NAR. Heavy buying by investors has caught the attention of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan who pointed at it, and the distortions it causes, as a reason to taper the Fed’s purchases of MBS “sooner rather than later.”
Individual investors and second-home buyers, who also account for a portion of the cash-buyers, purchased 17% of the homes in May, up from 14% in May last year.
Vacation home sales have jumped. The NAR, in a report looking at 323 counties that are identified as vacation home hotspots, found that sales of vacation homes over the first four months of 2021 jumped by 55% compared to the annual rate in 2019, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,500 sales. Work-from-home had likely something to do with it – if you can work from anywhere, why not work in a beautiful vacation spot?
Mortgage applications may be an indication that regular buyers are getting second thoughts about the frenzy: Mortgage applications to purchase a home – not to refinance – have dropped back into the 2019 range, and in the latest week were down 6% from the same week last year and down 1% from the same week in 2019, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, with the entire big boom last year having now been worked off (data via Investing.com):
Inventory of homes listed for sale rose 7% in May to 1.23 million homes, the third month in a row of increases. While still very low, inventories are at the highest level since last November. And supply rose to 2.5 months at the current rate of sales, the highest since October last year (data via YCharts):
New listings are slowly coming out of the woodwork. In May, new listings rose 5.8% from April, and 5.4% from May last year, to 403,000 homes, according to the realtor.com residential listings database, but are still about 140,000 new listings below the pre-Pandemic Mays (the months of May are connected by a green line).
Home buyers that haven’t put their old home on the market after buying a new one because they plan to ride up the massive price gains with both homes for as long as they can, they’re expected to make a large-scale showing in the fall. Keeping a vacant home around has hefty carrying costs, and it only works with the types of crazy price increases we’re seen in many markets recently. The equation falls apart when prices stabilize.
Numerous surveys of homeowners have pointed at pent-up supply of vacant homes waiting in the wings, including a survey of homeowners by the National Association of Realtors and Harris Poll, which showed that 10% of them plan to sell their home over the next 12 months, substantially higher than in a typical year, and over half of them are planning to list their home by the fall.
Crazy price spike continues.
The median price for existing homes spiked by 23.6% from May 2020, and by 25.9% from May 2019, to $350,300. Note how the Pandemic upended the well-established pattern of seasonality (data via YCharts):
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:
Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? Sign up here.
Anecdotal, but: we’re in what’s called the Florida Alps in North Carolina. On our little mountain, the realtors are saying that basically everyone who was going to sell has already sold, and there are very few houses on the market. Two out of every three cars I see here have Florida plates.
Now the biggest challenge is finding a contractor who will show up for the ubiquitous “take this house out of the 80’s” renovation.
It is true that investors and homeowners afraid of the coming hyperinflation are reluctant to sell their investments or homes. Nevertheless, keep in mind that many, many borrowers only qualify for adjustable-rate mortgages.
House prices have risen dramatically while real disposable incomes, based on wages less necessary expenses, have only risen marginally. Thus, many buyers face trying to get financing for homes that have required payments that they either can barely afford or cannot truly afford over the long term.
If inflation takes off, the borrowers who foolishly financed using adjustable-rate mortgages will see their payments rise steeply until the borrowers cannot afford to make them and default as in 2008. Therefore, assuming that some portion of the borrowers can see the handwriting on the wall, it may be that too many potential buyers foresee the financial holes that they will find themselves in, if inflation keeps surging, so they choose not to buy right now.
I do not subscribe to the silly, clearly incorrect, “efficient markets” economic theory but I do believe that most buyers of increasingly expensive real estate can do basic math.
What is the source of your data about ARM percentages?
I don’t think it’s an ARM issue, even if so certainly not like 15 years ago. In fact I believe many loans went into default back then before there was even a loan reset.
My broker friend does report that he is doing mostly 10/1 jumbos these days, and sometimes pressing all the way to 50% DTI. That is really high, not alot of margin to absorb an income shock or unanticipated increase in expenditures (uh, such as may occur due meteoric inflation of, um, just about everything).
You may have misunderstood my comment. I was pointing out that many potential buyers faced with rising prices and a limited ability to get (or service) a huge loan, are choosing not to buy now, e.g., by making higher and higher blind offers by getting a “Jumbo loan” (to finance such offers) to owners not interested in selling, such as I have received. As I pointed out, potential sellers are now often not interested in selling in part due to the expectation of rising inflation: what would they do with the sale proceeds that is more secure?
Jumbo loans are often now lent as ARM loans. The rising prices mean more potential buyers would have to get such “Jumbo loans,” because their down payment is not inflating with the offered price and thereby, the potential loan amount more often exceeds limits in the locality. See fhfa dotgov’s Conforming loan limits.
In California, ARM loans are still only a low fraction of total loans approved, but rising prices mean more and more potential loans may become “Jumbo loans” and thereby ARM loans. That should slow the rise in RE prices eventually.
I just read a story about the real alps, in Italy, someone bought a house for $16,000 in a remote village. Had to fix it up a lot, but hey it was cheap. I would do that.
But I am not buying a house for more than $16,000. I am officially on buyers strike. I believe i am the only person in the USA on buyers strike. Join me if you want to experience life without overpaying for housing.
Nah, I’m on a buyer’s strike too. Only needed food and supplies. No new cars, houses, or toys.
In some places in Italy, one can buy a house for 1 EUR. Some terms and conditions apply though:
One has to become resident there, renovate the place within 3 years, using the proper materials and techniques for the time the home was built. That can be very expensive in Italy which has “archeological” stuff everywhere.
Even after jumping the hurdles, and it turned out to be a cheap home, it is still a home located in a somewhat desolate area with few or no services.
I’ve pulled out of market
over priced lots, lumber out of control
contractors are cancelling bids(accepted) due to force majeure
inventory increasing since we are now VAXXED society
not interested – will continue to payoff loans
see you all end 2022 after reset – if not then we’ll not do it at all
Can’t help think that November time looking better for first quakes of a reset.
Maybe it’s a function of the increased interconnected nature of markets, people, fear, that sentiment change appears much quicker than 2008.
Can’t say for certain, obviously. What does anyone else think?
Nope you are not the only one. I’ve got my family in a tiny two bedroom apartment and I’m not leaving unless prices of homes come down. I’m not buying a dump 80s home with no renovations by a baby boom boom. It’s like how much will this cost to make this dump look decent? We are in a housing shortage and if the government can bail out the entire country due to covid they can bail out this housing fiasco. Or we can all wait until all the old farts die off.
The grass is no longer greener on the other side. People are looking at what they’ve got and seeing that it’s better than what they’d get for the money elsewhere. I’m staying put until something hits the fan, too. And if it never hits the fan, I’ll stay put indefinitely.
Your parents must be proud of you!
I’m the CEO on the imaginary board of BABS, Bay Area Buyers Strike. So happy I’m in great company. New members are always welcome!
Raging Texan. I agree with you! I am on buyer strike as well!!
You can also probably get cheap real estate in Japan. The question is do you really want to live in a remote area with no access to anything. Plenty of places in the USA you can still go for cheap housing if you don’t mind commuting 100 miles to a hospital.
How Bubbles End.
The telling chart here is months supply being at historic lows. It means there’s a seller’s strike, not a buyer’s strike. This causes a bidding war anytime a house comes up for sale.
The bubble will be over when prices start to come down. Sellers will get scared and rush to the exits. This is what we saw in 2008. No sign of this happening now.
At least here, we appear to be on the cusp of that happening and it appears to be the calm before the storm. There are a few properties starting to drop 6 digit with a couple having done that more than once in a couple of weeks. Still no joy for them. New listings are still coming up on high side as though the seller isn’t looking at DOM’s for currently listings to figure out the FOMO died. The strategy only makes sense if they are strictly listening to the media. It will be a wake up call when they don’t sell in the next couple of weeks or see much activity.
I’m waiting for the sellers panic with the rush to the exits. With all the second properties, it seems like a good bet that it will come.
I have been contacted over mail, email, text, phone calls and even door-to-door people who want to purchase my house.
I am firmly on seller’s strike.
I’ve got 50 solicitations from crooks wanting to buy my home and tear it down. I bought 50 blank postcards and sent them out to all 50. I wrote a one line message:
Go F$uck off!
Agreed. That is the key chart and it shows incredibly low supply. That’s why prices are up and are not going to drop much, if at all, anytime soon.
Just cause people want something to happen doesn’t mean it will.
Inventory has been rising for third month in a row, with investors buying and regular homebuyers on strike?
Wolf–it is my understanding that investors who purchase a second home just to get increase in value, and not to occupy it, have a tough time getting insurance on a vacant house.
Yes, a small uptick of which there have been many followed by a another down tick. Supply is at a historic LOW. Prices will cool, but unless a bunch of people lose their jobs I wouldn’t count on a crash any time soon (much as I would like to see one myself). What is more likely to happen is that prices will run up against an affordability wall and that’s where prices will hover.
People have been comforting themselves with their charts since 2014. In the meantime, prices have risen over 50% while they sat on the sidelines and waited in their rental for the crash that never came.
Hopefully the prices will stabilize as well. The last thing we need is a real estate bust.
Is the average price following in the footsteps of the median?
I have been praying for a real estate bust for years now. Nothing would make me happier than metaphorical blood in the streets for all these suckers who bought a home in the last 2 years.
$100 plus oil by mid-summer(oil cartel enriching) and semi companies which are notorious(think cartel memory producers) to limiting supply and keeping prices high will keep throttling production! Hey, and every other biz now can reap huge profits by keeping production in check(lumber cartel and shipping cartel and food producers cartel), you name it! Housing rolling over and FREE $$$ cheese from the gubmint being cut-back!
Sure smells like stagflation!
I to am looking forward to a massive real estate bust. My dream is that I buy a house so cheap from desperate sellers they cry like babies at closing. Then the the real estate agent sobs because there is no money left for the commission. So I smile and hand them a can of soup so they don’t go home hungry.
Good story by James Grant about standing in line to by gold when he was young. He bought his first gold coin at the top. If there is a line of buyers for any asset, you need to think very hard. Best prices are when nobody is interested.
I am rooting for the real estate bust too. I don’t like seeing the average Joe priced out of the housing market, and I have empathy for the older folks who could lose their homes because property taxes start rising from inflated valuations. Also on my wish list is a rise in interest rates so savers can get something other than a metaphorical middle finger in their bank statements. Every time I open mine I see that Johnny Cash picture with him flipping the bird at the camera.
I honestly don’t want anyone being evicted or foreclosed. We really need the government to bail out the housing market. Not very far fetched considering the government bailed out everyone due to covid. I think the housing market is super unhealthy and not enough inventory for where there are jobs.
Rice,
If government bail out the owners , then forget new buyers to be able to afford, prices has to come down, or this country will become a fully socialism economy
My choice of words here was bad. I meant to say I think the government, at all levels, need to work on creating way more housing inventory where it is needed. This would be an investment into the country, and it would alleviate out of control housing costs for everyone.
I think we need both a real estate bust and interest rates suddenly going above 5% :/.
Construction is diaper-case crazy, they are quoting 8 months delivery on windows and doors right now. Everywhere someone are building something, there is an avalanche of super expensive homes about to hit the market in 2022!
“The last thing we need is a real estate bust.”
Speak for yourself.
This is the first thing we need!
But, whether you like it or not, it will happen. If you are an owner and think that your are rich because of your house price is up, then you don’t understand the cyclic economy of the US.
“Hopefully the prices will stabilize as well.”
That’s what the housing bulls are hoping for instead of a painful correction in house prices.
In other words, they probably see house values landing safely on a high plateau to rest before resuming their march upwards.
They are mistakenly viewing housing as an asset class that mimics consumer price inflation– always go up but seldom down (deflation).
Prices in my neighborhood in Naples are up over 50% YOY. I am finally seeing some signs of buyers refusing to pay up for over priced homes. SF listing went from 3,250 to less than 500 in early May. Listings have finally started increasing. We’re closer to 600 today.
Stuff moves crazy fast near me. As far as financing, if people are cashing out of expensive big city markets and moving to Florida or Texas or Idaho chances are they might be an all cash buyer and not need financing so won’t show up in mortgage applications. On top of that, higher middle class and wealthy may have huge stock and investment gains.
Sucks for all of us on the sidelines.
The government is going to continue to pump the assets, bail out the landlords and make the economy look okay even though the future is bleak no matter what. The rulers own a lot of houses and they don’t want the prices to go down.
In San Diego there is no buyer’s strike. Sales volume may be low because of low inventory but not because of lack of buyers. Bidding war going on for even a million dollar shack
Agreed. Also, the entire state has the ADU laws which makes the property more valuable to developers, and San Diego has its own ordinances which have made every single family residential parcel now zoned for four. If you’re within a half mile of a bus there is no limit as to how many ADUs you can build. Developers know this and are pushing prices higher and higher. SB 9 and 10 will make this a statewide thing. Even if regular demand falls developer demand is increasing
ADU law is accelerating the deterioration of quality of life in San Diego
It is becoming unlivable..
Not the city I knew 20 years back
I suggest You watch Not Just Bikes on YT. Suburbs are more or less unsustainable, and ADU laws is probably a necessary evil. Wheather you and me like it or not
I’m seeing a huge blow-off top in Seattle suburbs. In my neighborhood, price per/ft. has jumped up about 30% this past year. Ridiculous.
I see lots of bagholders crying for government support in our future.
A realtor told me it’s driven mainly by millennials with well-paying tech jobs and a bad case of FOMO.
My house went up 23% from jan 2021 and until just now when I sold it. I made more on owning that house this year than I did working.
That felt risky and we decided to downsize. Probably it’ll go up further in price when the new owners renovate it.
So after you sold your house could you find an affordable replacement?
That is a dilemma for sellers wanting to cash in on housing mania and make a killing– their next house is also likely to be very expensive. Near net-zero gain overall.
I’ve heard that people fleeing grossly overinflated housing states like California to other places (like Tennessee) are not getting a big cash windfall in the exchange– they may get a bigger house on more land in Tennessee but their California loot didn’t leave them much cash afterwards.
In Santa Clara County CA(a VERY expressive local to buy a home in) there are roughly 1,160 single family homes on the market currently. That’s not including condos and town homes. It’s a lot, and I’m seeing some of these homes just sitting on the market for months now. Seems like people won’t pay as willingly as they used to. I sure won’t, and besides tech stock money, and people moving up in the market, I can’t see how these homes are anything close to affordable.
*Expensive
Are the houses that are sitting on the market those with non-correctable defects? Many of the unsalable homes hit the market when inventories are low and FOMO is stron. Just saying that there’s “lots of houses” doesn’t mean squat. If they are next to a freeway or stinky industrial area…. that impacts both the desirability and value.
I live in an area that’s beautiful (mountain views and absolute quiet), but 21 miles from the nearest Home Dumpo. There’s exactly 3 houses for sale out of a few thousand available for sale. My cracker shack has “allegedly” increased in value 21% this year.
It’s sheer madness.
Madness.
Plenty of nice homes in nice neighborhoods for sale here. From $500,000 out in the redwoods to $5,000,000 in mountain view. Also my statistic above was only homes for sale up to $1,600,000 beyond that number, look to extend the inventory higher still.
The Fed knows darn well that RE price spikes are very risky, because if prices ever drop, mortgage holders will default, driving much misery for homeowners and the banks.
So why does the Fed feel it is appropriate to be buying MBS at this point in time when home prices are spiking?
This is the type of thing that makes you question the Fed’s true motivations. Are they trying to increase financial instabilities and promote generational theft?Do they operating for the benefit of society, or a chosen few? Based on what we are seeing, it obvious to conclude they are extremely biased toward wealth-holders, callous, short-sighted, and closed-minded.
I imagine if you asked Powell you’d get a bland statement about the wealth effect and rising home prices making people more confident to go out and consume, etc.
My follow up question would be: with supply chains and inflation as the are, and the issue of home affordability aside, do you really think its a good time to stimulate further consumer demand?
He also said “Fiscal policy can do what we can’t, which is to replace lost incomes for people who are out of work through no fault of their own.”
He loves vaunting the the Fed’s noble purpose of economic recovery, and acts as if Fed’s hand was pushed due to the COVID crisis. Implication being, if the crisis never happened, we’d still be at sub 4% unemployment and at a “normal” (i.e. not zero) Fed funds rate climate.
Well if that’s the case, then why didja cut the Fed funds rate in July 2019 when the economy was on fyre, Jerome?
This will be interesting. I’m curious to see what happens to all those sales that have a 6 month possession and wouldn’t close until sometime in the fall. You have to consider the # of purchases that were brought forward, interest rates starting to increase, will employers let workers continue to work remotely enough to support staying in that new location, a smallish buyers striking due to to historic high & unaffordable prices and the summer doldrums. Lots of variable but I’m thinking that the last years WTF spike of 30-50% in the hottest markets will disappear in fairly short order. If it does it will be interesting to see how many mortgages end up underwater from that alone and if it can cause contagion.
Buttered popcorn anyone.
For 20 years you have been able to roll the dice and leverage up to see if you win the asset lottery. It’s been kind of rational as for most the consequences haven’t been that bad if you got it wrong.
But lessons in personal finance are tough because future isn’t like the past.
I believe the the past can help us predict the future. Further, the lessons in personal finance have only been forgotten because of the lengthy and extreme market manipulation. Having said that, I doubt those that were seriously hurt in the ’08 debacle are flying high this time. It’s probably a new set of buyers without that type of experience behind them. We know this from prior busts including the ’30’s and the ’80’s. You don’t forget those lessons as they are just too painful.
Either way, it’s increasingly looking like the buyers are unwilling or unable to continue support these valuations. If that is the case, this could drop or crash or the lunacy of the last year could hang around. The question is who will hold on longer. The buyer or the seller? Will there be white or black swans that get added to the mix? Only time will tell but I sure wouldn’t want to be waiting for a close in the fall market.
Who is “flying high” this time? Millennials just like my son and daughter in law…. who think they’re “wealthy” and cost is no object because she just got a big salary raise and some “stawk”.
However, the stock is in a private company. Anyone with a brain knows that the stock in a private company and that class of stock is only worth what the other majority stockholders say it is. Which could be a penny a share and the dividend is zero……
They sat, all cocky on my couch, telling me how *rich* they were (new job). I just nodded…. it might work out. Might not. Hope they don’t spend it before the check cashes (they are).
Sad.
Interesting comment. Say you did move away from the big city and settled into some place you can’t commute. Then your management informs you that your position is required to be onsite one or more days a week. Dilemma time. Rent the hotel, stay with friends, conversation with management, find a new job or retire
Myself I took a fulltime remote position. The workers at the institution have all been told to return to office in hybrid mode. I have a PASS. For now
Key operating word…. “for now”.
Yup. Had to make a purchase at Moore’s. The manager said that during the pandemic they dropped their prices by 1/2 on suits to try to keep some traffic. Now they are working on raising prices back to pre-pandemic prices and selling out of stock. Haven’t tried to verify what he said but if that is any indication, the whole work from a remote location thing will be short lived.
Just mention that here in the UK, we also have bidding wars for houses. Yes the world, not just the USA, has gone bonkers
Supposedly Canada is the worst according to what I’ve read
The Chinese could in time turn Canada into one big ghost country or turn both the greater Vancouver area and the golden horseshoe into ghost cities.
I am waiting to see what disaster the real inflation rate of 12% does to the bottom 45% . We will see if Fed jawboning and the Congress don’t give a shit attitude can replace food in an empty refrigerator or buy a replacement fridge. The 45% cannot survive 12% inflation very long and I doubt they will quietly suffer. Inflation had better be transitory and fast because there is a tipping point . Free Money had better start sinking to the bottom soon. It is alarmingly quite .
The good news is that ammo prices have dropped dramatically. I wonder if the 45% can still afford that?
You have to wonder if flooding a country w/more guns per capita (by a wide margin) then any other nation on earth might someday prove to be disastrous.
What’s the worst case scenario I wonder?
Lebanon. At least the us military is well trained in bombing Utah :).
Package shrinking may help them lose weight.
The big elephant is still the huge increase in money supply.
Part of that money may be vacuumed up through taxes on the high AGI’s but it still will have a surplus in the lower AGI’s who will continue to push up prices in the things they can buy.
So what then? Stagflation in the prices, some price ranges become more expensive and others not? Some places go up, some go down?
May be things go down this fall but in the long run, it still goes up and the operational cost of 2nd home, if it is just 1-2% yoy is minor compared with that.
What am I missing here?
Hard to say. Japan dept/gdp at 6X, Europe at 5X and USA at 4X all running policies to deal with debt burden. Real economies weighed down by debt and central banks buying time as economies stagnate. Real life problems of shelter, health care, education not getting easier.
We are over the hill as far as more debt helping long term situation. Every time Fed chairman is in front of Congress they say eventually GDP will have to grow debt slower than GDP, but the time is not now.
Still think it will be a fast reset, when the time is right. Maybe an executive order to nationalize IRAs or something.
“Maybe an executive order to nationalize IRAs or something.”
you are right in spirit of the confiscation.
Don’t think an executive order. no need for that. 401k’s are taxed when you take the money so just jack up the progressive tax rate. Social Security will be only for those “without 401k savings” and those in need (never mind if they have ever contributed anything)
The only thing I can come up with to protect yourself is to buy stuff you may need in the future and will never need to sell.
A house is a good one since you want to live in it until the end (and may be a reverse mortgage to drain some funds at the end).
Stocks however is something you want to sell later and with inflation, you will get hammered by the fake capital gains tax (which biden wants to increase to 43% plus happy suckers in California an additional 15% and then the 5-10% extra in Obama Care surtax and whatever else they may come up with).
A friend on mine long time ago installed some solar panels . Surprised since he is someone who only does thing for the real green stuff (those banknotes) . He explained that he just upfront invested in energy so if energy price would skyrocket, he would not be affected. He recently told me he got his money back on the investment but in California (where he lives) , solar panels are a big big big scam these days. It used to be if you generate energy and send it back to the net, you would get a credit for it in kwh when you would later use it. Now they changed it, first you have to pay $25/month for just the ability to send it back to PG&E and then PG&E gives you something like $0.08/kwh. However, when you take the energy, you have to pay the regular price (which is $0.14 for the first 120kwh and then rapidly goes to $0.48/kwh). They also told him to not use energy during the day but at night (which would ensure he would not use his own energy but always sell cheap buy expensive).
Nothing new. Your friend didn’t read the fine print. The connection charge had to do with infrastructure (line maintenance) and cost to provide baseline power (alternative generation from nukes and nat gas plants) when solar/ wind isn’t available and it’s dark or the wind isn’t blowing. (See Texas)
When you do the math on rooftop solar… it doesn’t pencil unless you’re thirteen and you have battery storage.
For emergencies, I have a generator that’s powered by a propane bomb buried in my yard.
MOOSY
That must be a CA thing. Our Scottsdale AZ home never used any grid power and we got a $100 credit or something in January each year – not much, but at least no cost except for the install. I live in 100% solar again now in Prescott AZ (batteries only – complete OTG home) – like your friend, I will have to buy new batteries in 8-10 years, but otherwise, not a slave to monopoly utility jack-ups.
Great times often lead to bad deals. A couple in my SoCal neighborhood just paid $250K over list price, which also happens to be $250K over the last comp. They admit they feel like they overpaid but they wanted the house so they bought it.
A 1600 sq. ft. junker just over the hill closed for almost $1.3 mil. Don’t know the people but someone in the neighborhood told me they are reeling after getting $$ quotes and timelines for remodeling. Home is also on a busy street.
One of the first signs of weakness should be that inferior location junkers will not get bid up but instead will sit on the market. Now I have seen 2 nice houses in my zip code with 6 figure reductions after 10+ days on the market, which is another sign of possible softening. We’ll see. But for the most part, insane prices continue.
I watched a video of the homeless situation in Venice, CA. How can anybody claim houses are still worth millions there, it’s nuts. I wouldn’t live there for free.
There’s definitely some passive-aggressive behavior going on in places like Venice. It’s their way of giving the middle finger to the owners of those multi-million dollar homes.
There’s passive aggressive behaviour going on all over the place. Wondering when the powers that be will notice and care.
Perfect recipe for buyer’s remorse. It never ceases to amaze me how blind some consumers can be. Money literally burns a hole is their pocket…they can’t help it.
The leading story in the Palm Beach Post today is the median price of houses in the county is $475K, fast approaching $500K. The last time I saw this was 2006 and you all know what happened next.
This time is different :-)
You have to count the income and gdp growth over years.
Hurricane season just kicked off too! People have short memories.
So the bubble bursts and you bought your house 6 months ago at these inflated prices, with a sub 3% fixed rate for 30 years. Are you going to walk away from your house only to pay rent at nearly the same rate as your mortgage? I think not, unless you are forced to sell I think most will ride out the market, negative equity or not. I doubt the IRS will not pursue taxable debt forgiveness this time around, following a short sale or foreclosure auction.
Gian, the short-sale-income-forgiveness was actually an act of Congress (ask me how I know!), so the IRS didn’t have discretion. If, God forbid, we have another 70% haircut, it’s hard to imagine the current bunch of even more spineless legislators not doing that again.
A lot of divorces when bubbles burst and then you have to sell or you are stuck living with someone you hope to not see.
Most of the fancy high end houses on the market here have those 3D virtual tours where you can look at everything inside the house. In at least a third of them one half of the walk-in closet in the Master Suite is empty, while the other half just has men’s or women’s clothing. So I think the theory that divorces drive a lot of home sales is true.
Not just divorce but job relocations may split up couples for a time.
I got my California divorce the old fashioned way. LOL!
if fixed rate, who cares if the price of your house drops , you have to live somewhere.
what does matter is that your mortgage will become less “big” over time thanks to inflation (assuming your income is not too sticky).
And for those buying a new house before selling the old: If you bought your original home long ago , pretty likely you have a huge capital gains tax to pay when you sell (that $250k or $500k “free” cap gains is quickly reached with a house that was may be bought 20 years ago for $350k and now is $1400k — that is 1M$ – 500k = 500k cap gains = 200-300k in tax (and as bonus you may be in the super high AGI bracket the year you sell your home so forget any deductable or credit that year)
When the housing market turns down so does a lot of income streams. Here in Northern Virginia tons of brick and mortar storefronts are related to tile, hot tubs, carpet, remodels. Everywhere you see businesses that are feeding off the housing boom. When that slows down, there will be job losses and hard times for some.
That depends. Are you already underwater? Also, what are you going to do when you need to refinance in 1-5 years and interest rates have gone up, possibly to historical norms. Can you handle that? If not, then maybe it’s better to get out of Dodge now.
Using his example of selling a home with price appreciation, odds are the “refi” doesn’t matter unless he/she’s an idiot. Interest rates are at historical (or hysterical) lows. Only a fool refinances their dwelling to buy a bass boat. Or a car. It’s fool’s gold (cash out refinancing).
Let the equity roll. One of my offspring sold her house (and thought she cut a fat hog) 3 years ago… it’s increased in sale value 33% (200K plus) since. She spent part of the equity (the seed corn provided by yours truly) and now can’t get back into the game. She’s angry about it (she lives in an apartment that, while pretty, sucks) and longs for her own digs without ever increasing rents. That ship has sailed.
Too bad. So sad.
Higher home prices mean higher real estate taxes in most states.
People want to buy my home, but not my vacant lot. The city planners have that all tied up. I sometimes think about selling but my instinct tells me, if I saw another lot, just like mine, I should buy it. Then nobody is selling land.
Occasionally someone dies and a land portfolio was sold by the estate. Texas and Florida are seeing the largest influx of new residents.
The apartment vacancy rate was rising according to a recent report I read. They are building concrete block and stucco houses and apartment buildings in my area. In 2012 there were houses with garages for sale for $100,000. as Florida was near the epicenter of the housing crash. It seemed like “For Sale” signs on most streets. Times changed.
Many older workers retired early during the pandemic to avoid risk of death. All sorts of $10/hr jobs open. Florida voters voted to gradually raise the minimum wage to $15/hr.
I love vacant land and lots. I own tons of them. Property taxes are super low because it’s unimproved, I have very little maintenance costs, no renters to deal with, and it’s gone up 5-10% per year. Far better investment than .01% in a savings account and the carrying costs are low. Plus if I ever need to, I can build a house on one, move into it for 2 years, and then sell it tax free.
There will be no RE bust.Excessive housing will be demolished as in 2008-2009 and RE prices will freeze at insane level.
Last year Pritzker (IL Gov) was screaming like banshee “We need $43B ASAP or all or >$100K per year gov retirees will die !!!”
This year not a peep…Problem solved…Same in NY…
Everybody is RE millionaire now.And $20K per year in property taxes is such a small price to pay for being a millionaire – dontcha think ???
I particularly admire that “cash buyers” scam,non-existent phantom buyers driving around with duffel bags full of cash in the backseat,snapping up houses w/o even looking at them…
Even small dope pushers know about civil forfeiture laws and dont drive with more than $200 on them.
Well,as stupid as this “RE cash buyers” BS sounds – it worked like a charm…
Thank you thank you thank you Fed cum Blackrock-the-House-Snatcher for solving the budget woes of our corrupt state governments !!!
Sorry Brent… but you sound naive. It’s unlikely that anyone is driving around with duffel bags full of moola. You can’t even buy a car for greenbacks as the dealer has to fill out a form to the goobermint to narc on you if it’s $10K or more.
Cash buyers can just as easily come from high value markets and move into areas where their equity (or capital gain) makes them eligible to buy for “cash”. All “cash” means is that they could hock their other house for X $ in advance (or after closing) and get the job done. It’s a wire transfer.
Ask me how I know.
When the gang bangers go into the car dealerships with plastic bags full of cash, the dealerships lay it out as payments so the car still gets sold and the money transaction doesn’t trigger flags.
Pellucid plastic bags full of cash literally scream “SEIZE ME ! FORFEIT ME !!!”
Gangbangers use magnetic stash boxes underneath the car.Fat cops who can barely bend dont look there during the routine traffic stops.Only at border crossings they use mirrors on long sticks…
I have a bank account and credit union account. The credit union asks (“It’s a govt. form.”) what any withdrawal over $2500 is for.
The nice, matronly bank teller asks me what to put down.
Me: “This money is for drugs and prostitutes,”
Teller: “That’s funny. What do you really want me to put down?”
Me: “This money is for drugs and prostitutes.”
Teller: “Are you serious?”
Me: “Yes. I. Am. Please write down drugs and prostitutes.”
Teller: “Uhhhmmmmm……”
☺
Well,buying house for cash is not what it used to be in the 60’s…
In the movie “Psycho” a secretary withdrew $40K from the bank, and, instead of delivering it to her house-buying boss,absconded with the money.
“narc on you if it’s $10K or more.”
If it is $10K or less it is “structuring”.
Find a Man first,build a Case around him later.
Maybe not appropriate for this thread, but interesting. From the community FB thread for Driggs, ID (west side of the Tetons):
It is going to be a difficult summer for all of our valleys restaurants and I think I speak for all restaurants in the valley asking for your patience and understanding during this time.
US FOODS a major food distributor to nearly all of us has just cancelled 35 accounts in Teton valley. We all just found out and literally cannot place our orders. We are fighting to get on the elite list of people who now get orders but whether we do or don’t, a lot of our other restaurants will not. We are all short staffed. Everyone is hiring, and nobody is applying. It’s that bad.
Just wanted to make everyone aware of what is going on in the restaurant world. If your favorite menu item anywhere that you eat is not available, there is a deeper issue going on then poor planning or ordering. We’re all trying our best with what we have available to us.
The message implies that people in Idaho prefer government unemployment assistance over work. If we believe the platitudes, Democrats must dominate in Idaho, correct?
over restaurant work, not all work.
Restaurant work is brutal, underpaid,long hours 6 or 7 days a week. Most people have figured out that, and don’t want to work for peanuts doing it.
“Most people have figured out that, and don’t want to work for peanuts doing it.”
That’s funny, people (I did a stint in my younger days) have worked in restaurant trade for countless decades and through all economic situations, and they didn’t figure out your profound wisdom until just now?
What changed their minds, pray tell?
Same thing here – restaurants at half-staff and half-capacity.
Buyer’s strike? Pfff.
Fed eternal QE and ZIRP to the rescue:
WSJ – Blackstone Bets $6 Billion on Buying and Renting Homes
Deal for Home Partners of America, owner of over 17,000 houses in U.S., is latest sign Wall Street believes housing market will stay hot
Yah, working folks go on strike. Fed subsidized hedge funds gobble up homes. Striking working folk and the rest of us as well eventually become slave renters to Fed subsidized “investors”.
It’s all going according to plan.
Timbers, we were both saying the same thing at the same time!
Yep!
timbers,
Read the friggin WSJ article not just the headline!!!!!!!!!!!!
How hard is it to read the first two paragraphs of an article???
This was a portfolio of 17,000 rental homes that were rented out already. The entire portfolio was sold from one big investor to another.
Headline readers that are too lazy to read 2 paragraphs and then post this garbage here drive me nuts.
Back at ya, Wolf…
How hard is it to read the read the first two words in the title of your article?
“Buyers’ Strike…”
If one big investor sold housing to another big investor, how is that a buyers strike?
You miss my point:
“Fed subsidized hedge funds gobble up homes. Striking working folk and the rest of us as well eventually become slave renters to Fed subsidized “investors”.”
Ownership will for the fewer, renting will increase, because of Fed subsidizing.
Blackrock is connected to the Fed.
True
The Fed buys MBSs at rates well under inflation.
True. Why? Who would?
Blackrock is huge in residential real estate.
True.
This is why the Fed should never ever partner with an outside entity….and never has until this.
At the very least, it looks bad, and there is great room for devious behavior, inside knowledge and sway for some that have a great stake in the matter, this case real estate. Undeniable.
historicus,
“Blackrock is huge in residential real estate.”
Nonsense. Blackrock is huge as a mutual fund company and an ETF sponsor. It puts together mutual funds and ETFs, filled with bonds and stocks and some other asset classes.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/22/no-blackstone-didnt-buy-17000-houses-out-from-under-desperate-homebuyers-and-blackrock-didnt-buy-a-whole-neighborhood-but-built-to-rent-is-a-h/
I get your point but wish to add this…I’m gonna take a wild guess the company buying (Blackstone) has better access to Fed largess and the benefits of QE & ZIRP them the seller, which I will guess is Coldwell Banker but it’s hard to tell because crappified Google doesn’t seem to want to say so outright.
In Fountain Hills, AZ, there is an entire SFR rental community currently under construction. They’re nothing more than a crap shack apartment complex without common walls. Reminds me of dog houses.
Can’t wait to see the rent prices when they come to market.
“I’m gonna take a wild guess the company buying (Blackstone) has better access ”
Blackrock is an advisor. They are one cubicle over…could never happen.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/22/no-blackstone-didnt-buy-17000-houses-out-from-under-desperate-homebuyers-and-blackrock-didnt-buy-a-whole-neighborhood-but-built-to-rent-is-a-h/
In the way back part if my mind is this idea that private home ownership is going out the door to be replaced by rentals as the only affordable choice and/or preferred choice by many demographic groups. Little bits and pieces to that and I have been a coastal california realtor since early 2005. I think it could be that only the elites end up owning their homes. The stimmies/camel’s nose under the tent nanny stateitis, , the Fed actions on assets, the mindbending sales activity here on the Monterey Peninsula, the accelerating wealth gap, the investment in new build rental communities/institutional investor activity in residential housing, these are just some of the moving parts that come to mind. Plus that nagging feeling that something is happening that we don’t see.
Agree JWB on that nagging feeling. I’ve known about Blackrock for years…but I cannot help shake this feeling that there’s something coming that we do not see…they know something we do not know.
Amount of monthly rent is ultimately limited by salaries. Rent increases have been appreciating greater than cost-of-living salary increases. I would think, either more people will agree to splitting apartments/houses, or there will be an eventual cap on how much rent can be charged. The benefits to the individuals of being a two-income household is getting absorbed by the overlords…we are back to serfdom.
Nobody pays more steadily than the federal section 8 program. The mega landlords can’t be called out for renting to the poor, minorities, or the homeless. It’s the low rise projects coming to a town near you.
Yep, Section 8 apartments have now made it to The Woodlands, Texas where our Township “leaders” thought that would be unthinkable. Oh, the “waiting list” is a couple of years long too!
All we need now is “the bus line” into Houston. (maybe we already have it, I don’t know for sure)
“I cannot help shake this feeling that there’s something coming that we do not see…”
SCANDAL
A buyer’s strike? Oh that sounds like a demand problem and Fed.gov sure knows how to solve demand problems…
Maybe they’ll announce a program to buy houses that don’t sell 10% over list within one week. Maybe they’ll partner with Blackstone and offer some special liquidity to make sure the housing market remains nice and healthy.
Picketing house buyers shall be thrown into the same pit as the bond vigilantes.
And don’t forget all those hard-working savers they’ve thrown under the bus for the past decade with negative real interest rates on their bank account savings.
Think of it from another perspective. The government is desperate for people to spend money and create a working economy. One of their tools was to lure people to spend what they had in the saving accounts by end-around creating BOOGIE MAN inflation. So if you save you are a fool. Cash is trash. But that seems to have failed. So they helicopter dropped boxes of cash to each and every warm body in the USA that made less that $100k. Just them trying to stimulate the economy
“If you can work from anywhere, why not work in a beautiful vacation spot?”
Indeed.
The locals hate your guts, although that won’t deter you. You overwhelm their internet with your remote work, their police departments with your complaints and complaints about you, and their formerly peaceful natural areas with your UTVs and e-bikes and drones that you feel entitled to run everywhere. You create parking and traffic problems and clog the small post office with your online ordering of useless crap. Your splattered brains and guts overwhelm their EMS systems in your “experience-oriented” thrillseeking, and your garbage and excrement require them to pay more taxes for expanded landfills and new sewage treatment plants. In many places the sales taxes collected are by law allocated to things other than infrastructure.
Most importantly, and to the point of the quote, you take up all their housing with vacation or remote working rentals and drive prices through the roof. The property and business owners who profited and made their fortunes won’t complain, but the non-owning workers who serve you and will never own anything now will spit in your food and steal your $7000 mountain bikes. Good luck with the cops; the good ones leave because of housing issues.
You are the inequality problem, and the locals are smart enough to know that, even if you find enough people exactly like you in your vacation spot (THEIR home) to make it tolerable. Go ahead and tell locals to their faces how hard and brilliantly you’ve worked (and inherited, and of course invested), and how you deserve to screw them out of housing.
All this isn’t discouraging to remote workers who can afford the good life, but if you are one of these people, don’t fool yourself by thinking that you are a wonderful gift to these communities.
Very true and hard hitting !
Just track these people around the neighbourhood with security cameras, and when they go into a service venue with a radio on, have the DJ cue Tom Petty’s “Don’t Come Around Here No More”. Problem solved. Fight technology and creativity with oligopoly insider system!
Just the same where we live…. “It’s so beautiful here. But we need a shopping center, a gas station….”
Funniest complaint of the day: “I left my garage door open and someone came by and stole my (insert item here).”
Newsflash: Stop being so entitled and pick up your own leaves, clean your own house, and fix your own door knob. You invite an element into your neighborhood and then complain that they have “shrinkage” because you’re perceived as rich.
My DIL just bought a Model X…. I could easily afford one, but I drive a Honda. Why? To not draw attention to myself and become a target. She, once challenged, said “I never thought of that”.
Duh.
I read an article the other day about highly paid remote workers from Silicon Valley buying homes on Kauai ( Hawaii) sight unseen. This is the height of foolishness as Hawaii has flying termites that can destroy a house in less than a decade and a huge number of homes on cesspools ( that need to be pumped out every 6 weeks if you can afford to pay the locals who hate you enough to do it). But that is the least of your problems. 20 years ago my sister ( Blackrock employee) tried to live out her dream on Kauai only to find the locals claimed the fruit trees in her yard as their birthright, and her kids got beat up everyday at school. I think the Hawaiians are ahead of the curve and the same treatment is waiting for many of these remote workers gunking up things in flyover america.
Lol, ride with us or collide with us is one of the more popular slogans on the rock. Some clownifornian bought the place next to me sight unseen for 850k a few months ago and just dropped some more coin to build a deck to entertain. They know little about the culture, probably aren’t going to adapt (adapt or get slapped is another popular slogan, lol) so i don’t see them lasting more than a few years. Theres been hundreds more like that the past year, theyll be over it in a few years and move on to tahoe or bend or anyplace with a trader joes.
so many lessons to learn about combatting gentrification in these comments.
why i love wolf street. you’re always learning something.
Based on the people I’ve met from there, Hawaii shouldn’t even be part of the United States.
Don’t forget complaining that the “services” aren’t as good as whatever politically blue place they came from, which places had 10x the taxes.
Sounds like Idaho
In the Swamp, nearly every property we have appraised in the last 2 months has been empty. The owners have moved out of the area or to the suburbs or traded up in the city and are unloading these empty homes as fast as they can. They see the handwriting on the wall. With the low interest rates and the spike in prices this is a good time to sell. This is the shadow inventory we’ve been talking about. Its a race to see whether they can unload all these vacant properties before the roof caves in with a recession, spike in interest rates or some other catastrophe.
Buyers’ strike!?
What? Don’t worry.
America’s Largest Landlord Just Got Bigger: Blackstone Buys 17,000 Houses For $6 Billion
ZH
Such BS. They bought a company that already owned 17,000 rental houses. QUIT posting headlines here from articles you have not read. Good grief!!!
I’m now going to have to write an article to address this BS. It just never ends!
Yes, they bought a company which already owned 17000 rental houses. They own the company and the houses! Just sementics, but again, whom am I at WS!? You win!
When the foreclosures start, the mega landlords will be buying portfolios directly from the banks and GSEs. In the mean time, they have been buying for cash in their favorite locations, FL, NC, TX, GA, AZ, NV, and TN. All the places people can no longer afford.
The owner of amazon just participated in a 37 million funding round for Arrived Homes. So that is one way that investors/investments in SFH rentals could expand
We’re all just trying to get a read on what’s coming down the pike here…
Add Oregon $670k median here in Bend.
sunny129,
Fresh off the press:
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/22/no-blackstone-didnt-buy-17000-houses-out-from-under-desperate-homebuyers-and-blackrock-didnt-buy-a-whole-neighborhood-but-built-to-rent-is-a-h/
Thank you!
I have spent the last four days in my office in downtown SF and words can not describe how surreal the experience. Looking up Market Street, and down Montgomery at Lunch I counted fourteen people where there is usually hundreds if not thousands. We had three people on our floor today, which usually holds two hundred.
The trains are empty, the stores have no customers, and the landlord was in our office today as our owners (PE) are going to cut down on space
The next crash is going to come from the commercial side of the ledger.
I am not well versed in the amount of leverage, who backstops the loans, and where the bonds are placed, but there is going to be blood in the streets when the Commercial crowd starts defaulting and selling.
Hopefully the Fed buys all the defaulted CMBS and makes the lenders whole. There’s no reason they should take any haircut.
The commercial meltdown always leads the residential by a couple of years. Seen than happen here in many any neighborhoods. Good advice, buy when you see commercial picking up. Sell when you see it going down.
wolf,
What do think the ending of the mortgage forbearance at the end of this month will do to these numbers?
We’ll find out.
My wife is in the industry. During an industry conference call yesterday, one of the poobahs said they are gonna extend the moratorium until September. We shall see.
I would have thought that the longer they extend it, the more likely it is that they’ll have to keep extending it. The numbers aren’t going to get any better.
I stole the American dream.
He also stole the ability to SAVE your way to financial stabiltiy.
In fact, he has arranged a mechanism in which saving is punished.
It used to be a virtue, now it is punished by a decision by an unelected person.
Does it make you want to scream?
Muppets don’t scream. Otherwise they won’t be muppets.
Muppets are pretty good playing this game called A Quiet Place ;)
Home owners, the worst is yet to come.
Does anybody remember Armando Montelongo, his brother and their wives on Flip This House around 2005?
That was hilarious!
It’s not buyer’s strike. Bloomberg recently (maybe 2 days ago) had this article about how it’s in everyone’s best interest to have this country turn into a nation of renters. Not April’s Fools guys.
And a week ago, Bloomberg was arguing for war against China and Russia.
Bloomberg is clearly turning into The Onion right in front of our eyes.
I read that. It was an editorial, an opinion piece. It was industry propaganda. It was BS.
Started to see price reductions on land and condos here in San Diego a little while ago. Now seeing price reductions on SFH and more homes that were pending are coming back in the market. Inventory is definitely up. Seems like we are definitely topping.
Never been to San Diego but saw a video of the downtown, by the stadium, a week ago. It’s a wasteland of empty storefronts. Why would anybody pay a high price to live in that town? Upscale real estate means upscale environment and services, not a desert of consumer goods and services.
That’s the old industrial area. Left field at the park is the Western Metal Supply Building. They are in the process of building high end condos right down to the water. San Diego is not the downtown, its the burbs, the 101 along the coast. Nature trails. Riverwalk in Mission Valley. Point Loma and Cabrillo and the beach.
San Diego downtown condos have been pretty much flat in terms of value for many years. There was a craze during the ballpark development era that is long over.
Meanwhile the coastal stretch all the up to the marine base has exploded in pricing. Many feel like SD is in a “new paradigm” and has a new floor on prices that will never come down because “everyone wants to live here” and the area is “special”. Sure.
Personally I know lots of people nationally and internationally and not one ever talks about how they want to move to San Diego because it’s the most amazing place in the galaxy. In fact most shake their heads at high taxes, ridiculous home prices, high cost of this and that, sunshine wages, CA politics, heavy heavy traffic and overcrowding, lack of professional sports and culture, etc etc.
SD feels like one of those places that could get really busted up by a RE downturn. It’s happened a few times already over the past 30 years, probably due for another dose of humility. Oh wait “it’s different this time”, sorry never mind.
The home prices are crazy in San Diego. This has incentivized people to build many ADUs in their backyard which in turn is really bringing quality of life here. Imagine a single family home in small-ish lot size having 3 homes thus 6-8 cars.
This is really the third-world-ization of a nice city it was one time.
Time for the intrepid to move into the hood. Deals can be found. Cities have oodles of houses in lousy neighborhoods. The industrial size landlords don’t want that hassle.
Unlike the FOMO suckers & JOMO losers, I’m waiting for the government to build me a new home…
On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 1.8 million to 1.4 million.
@wolf, what do you think of the JPower’s new speech about not only looking at inflation for rate increase?
Rate increases are fairly far in the future and irrelevant at the moment because what the Fed will do first is taper and end QE. Rate increases come after that. There is consensus at the Fed that this is how it works. The “when and how” of the taper is now being discussed.
Does the Fed really control long term rates? What if they start rising in spite of the Feds actions? How many 10 year and longer Treasury Bonds can they buy before all confidence goes out the window. Seems like this could be a repeat of 1977/1978/1979 before Volcker came in.
The Fed could buy every single 10-year+ Treasury that comes floating by, no problem. The BOJ is doing that. There is no more government bond market in Japan.
Same thing here – restaurants at half-staff and half-capacity.
Check out this recent buy. Bagholder or savvy investor?
4 bd 3 ba 2,770 sqft
14722 NE 61st Ct, Redmond, WA 98052
Sold: $1,465,000. Sold on 06/11/21
Built in 1978. $529/sqft. Lot size: 8,604 sqft.
If I have to wait for the FED to raise rates significant enough to cause a crash in the housing market, I guess I will have to wait another lifetime at least that’s how long it will feel like.
Hopefully this bubble will burst on its own weight before then, would be good to see this market correct close to the means while interest rate is still low and FED still buying MBS..a bust is only meaningful in this environment if the master manipulator truly can’t do squat to course correct.
In looking at all the charts, everything seems to be getting back on the course it was tracking toward before the mania. As inventory starts to pick up, prices will level, but not drop. The leveling will at least be welcomed since people can at least stop and breath instead of having FOMO anxiety etc.
I also think that a factor in this formula is Mortgage requirements are slamming the door on applicants. I have lived in my home for 25 yrs. never missed a payment on anything, 800 + Credit rating. Refinanced twice 2 and the income earner lost it position in the pandemic. So now we’re consulting in the same industry and the same clients. But, Fanny and Freddy require 12 months of income or proof of employment which we are not inclined to do, even though the consulting firm will on-board us.
400k on a 1.5 mil house, and I got shot down on a refi. I can’t imagine what others are going through. The banks do not want to lend money at 2.5 interest rate.
Thanks for sharing. Now I all need financial literacy education, so i can be a investor. Great Post!!
St Francis Wi Shack sold for $320K!