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US-employment-nonfarm-2023-10-07-labor-force

by Wolf Richter • Oct 7, 2023 • 0 Comments

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Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7%

by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024

Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.

After Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero

by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024

QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.

What Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done”

by Wolf Richter • Dec 20, 2024

Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.

Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million

by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024

Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.

Home Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages?

by Wolf Richter • Dec 19, 2024

Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.

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