The Condo Bust deepens and spreads to more cities, unwinding some mindboggling Condo Bubbles.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Prices of mid-tier condos in the 24 bigger cities on this list have dropped by 12% to 29% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each of them has its own chart below, with some additional data.

There are smaller cities where prices of mid-tier condos have dropped by 12% or more – including Killeen, TX, where condo prices have collapsed by 44% – but these cities are too small to be included on the list of the bigger cities. So some of them are listed separately here but without charts.

And then there are a bunch of bigger cities where condo prices have dropped, but less than 12%, and so they didn’t make the cutoff, and some of those are also listed separately, but without charts.

The 24 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 29% from their peaks:

1. Oakland, CA: -29% (2022)
2. Cape Coral, FL: -29% (2024)
3. St. Petersburg, FL: -26% (2022)
4. Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
5. Jacksonville, FL: -17% (2022)
6. Tampa, FL: -17% (2022)
7. San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
8. Arlington, TX: -16% (2024)
9. Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
10. Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
11. Seattle: -14% (2022)
12. Reno, NV: -14% (2022)
13. Aurora, CO: -14% (2022)
14. Orlando, FL: -14% (2024)
15. Boise, ID: -13% (2022)
16. Portland, OR: -13% (2022)
17. Scottsdale, AZ: -13% (2022)
18. Mesa, AZ: -13% (2022)
19. Garland, TX: -13% (2022)
20. New Orleans, LA: -12% (2022)
21. Phoenix, AZ: -12% (2024)
22. Chandler, AZ: -12% (2022)
23. Port Saint Lucie, FL: -12% (2024)
24. Fremont, CA: -12% (2022)

Cities that are too small to be included:

Florida has some cities that are well-known, high-priced, and are centers of big urban areas; but by population of the city itself, they’re too small to be included with the bigger cities. So they’re on the too-small list of cities with big drops of condo prices.

For example, prices from the peak in prior years:

• Killeen, TX: -44%
• Fort Myers, FL: -23%
• Lake Worth Beach, FL: -23%
• Sarasota, FL: -21%
• Bradenton, FL: -21%
• Naples, FL: -16%
• West Palm Beach, FL: -16%
• Boca Raton, FL: -14%
• Kissimmee, FL: -14%
• Clarksville, TN: -14%
• Lakeland, FL: -13%
• Hayward, CA: -12%

Cities that didn’t make the -12% cut-off:

There are many bigger cities where mid-tier condo prices have declined from their respective peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024, but not enough to make the -12% cut-off. Here are some salient examples (year of peak):

• New York City, NY: -11% (2022)
• San Antonio, TX: -11% (2024)
• Plano, TX: -11% (2022)
• Corpus Christi, TX: -11% (2023)
• Glendale, AZ: -11% (2022)
• Raleigh, NC: -11% (2022)
• Houston, TX: -10% (2024)
• Colorado Springs, CO -10% (2024)
• Sacramento, CA: -10% (2024)
• Stockton, CA: -10% (2022)
• Salt Lake City, UT: -9% (2022)
• Dallas, TX: -9% (2023)
• Henderson, NV: -9% (2022)
• Spokane, WA: -9% (2022)
• Washington, DC: -8% (2022)
• Atlanta, GA: -8% (2023)
• Las Vegas, NV: -8% (2022)
• San Diego, CA: -7% (2023)
• Memphis, TN: -7% (2024)
• Fort Worth, TX: -7% (2024)
• Nashville, TN: -7% (2022)
• Oklahoma City, OK: -7% (2023)
• Gilbert, AZ: -7% (2022)
• San Jose, CA: -6% (2022)
• Miami, FL: -6% (2023)
• Los Angeles, CA: -6% (2022)
• Honolulu, HI: -6% (2022)
• Long Beach, CA: -6% (2023)
• Vancouver, WA: -6% (2022)
• Madison, WI: -6% (2024)

Year-over-year price declines of the 24 bigger cities.

Prices of mid-tier condos declined year-over-year in 23 of the 24 cities here in October (exception: Boise +0.3%). These are the cities with the biggest year-over-year declines in October:

• St. Petersburg: -16.1%
• Cape Coral, FL: -16.4%
• Arlington, TX: -14.4%
• Oakland, CA: -13.0%
• Jacksonville, FL: -10.9%
• Tampa, FL: -10.3%
• Orlando, FL: -10.2%
• Port Saint Lucie, FL: -9.1%
• Garland, TX: -9.0%
• Aurora, CO: -8.3%
• Denver, FL: -7.3%
• Freemont, CA: -6.4%
• Phoenix, AZ: -5.2%
• Seattle, WA: -5.1%

Condo prices in many of these cities had exploded from early 2020 through mid-2022 by 50%, 60%, 70% or more, amidst mindboggling buying behavior and investor-mania, fueled by Free Money.

In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% (Oakland), 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, Chandler), and 350% (Phoenix, Mesa). And by 500% in San Bernardino, CA, where prices have just started to decline and haven’t made any of the lists yet. Now these bubbles are deflating.

In some densely populated cities, such as San Francisco, condos make up a big part of home sales.

Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops in “cities” (not in Metropolitan Statistical Areas) from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The Condo Bust in charts:

In the little tables for each city below, the metrics from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.

Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-29%	-1.0%	-13.0%	150%

Lowest since October 2015, nearly 10 years ago, and below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in mid-2006, nearly 20 years ago!

Cape Coral, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-29%	-1.7%	-16.4%	140.9%

Back to October 2005, 20 years ago, well below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in mid-2006. Free-fall comes to mind.

St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices
From Oct 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-26%	-1.4%	-16%	190%

Lowest since July 2021. These are massive month-to-month declines.

Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25%	-0.2%	-5.9%	113%

Lowest since April 2021.

Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	-0.9%	-10.3%	263%

Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Nov 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	-0.8%	-10.9%	151%

Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.9%	-14.4%	233%

Back to March 2022.

San Francisco, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	0.5%	-1.2%	141%

Back to mid-2015.

 

Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2021 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.9%	-3.8%	261%

Lowest since September 2018.

Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.1%	-7.3%	137%

Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.5%	-3.8%	244%

Seattle, WA, City Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	0.1%	-5.1%	136%

Back to September 2017.

Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.5%	-8%	204%

Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Jan 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.9%	-10.2%	158.3%

Mesa, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.5%	-4.6%	207%

Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.1%	-4.8%	196.2%

Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2001
-13%	0.3%	0%	221%

Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	0.0%	-4.7%	110%

Back to mid-2016.

 

Scottsdale, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.1%	-4.8%	196.2%

Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-1.0%	-9.1%	239.2%

Phoenix, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-5.2%	236%

New Orleans, LA, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	0.6%	-0.2%	102%

Back to December 2016.

Chandler, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-3.6%	214.2%

Fremont, CA, City, Condo Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.3%	-6.4%	208.5%

Back to mid-2018. Tesla’s first manufacturing plant is located in Fremont.

Condos face some special issues:

• In real estate, and over the long term, the land appreciates, while most buildings depreciate to zero and are eventually torn down. The land some big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner owns 100% of it and benefits fully from any appreciation of the land.
• Prices that exploded over the past few years, driven by FOMO-addled buyers, including investors, and ended up being way too high.
• Hefty special assessments for long-neglected big repairs.
• Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, in part driven by spiking insurance costs.
• Fannie Mae’s ever-expanding Blacklist of condo buildings that makes financing a unit in one of those buildings very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers.
• The end of Free Money: Mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range.
• Foreign-based owners who’ve had it and want to sell.
• Investors in condos to rent them out are facing stiff competition from a wave of new higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.

And in case you missed it:  Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2025

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:

WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.