The Condo Bust is spreading, after the most extraordinary Condo Bubble maybe ever.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Fairly steep declines of condo prices have been spreading to more and more cities. Here we’re looking at prices of mid-tier condos in some of the bigger cities.

Condo prices in the markets on this list have dropped by 12% to 28% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each city has its own chart below, with some additional data. Prices through September, seasonally adjusted.

The 23 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 28% from their peaks:

1. Oakland, CA: -28% (2022)
2. Cape Coral, FL: -28% (2024)
3. Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
4. St. Petersburg, FL: -25% (2022)
5. San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
6. Jacksonville, FL: -16% (2022)
7. Tampa, FL: -16% (2022)
8. Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
9. Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
10. Arlington, TX: -15% (2024)
11. Seattle: -14% (2022)
12. Boise, ID: -14% (2022)
13. Reno, NV: -14% (2022)
14. Aurora, CO: -14% (2022)
15. Portland, OR: -13% (2022)
16. Orlando, FL: -13% (2024)
17. Scottsdale, AZ: -13% (2022)
18. Mesa, AZ: -12% (2022)
19. New Orleans, LA: -12% (2022)
20. Phoenix, AZ: -12% (2024)
21. Garland, TX: -12% (2022)
22. Chandler, AZ: -12% (2022)
23. Port Saint Lucie, FL: -12% (2024)

Cities that are too small to be included: Because the list was getting too long, I removed from the list of cities we track here some of the smaller cities in Florida and put them on this new too-small list (and their charts are no longer shown). Florida has some cities that are well-known, high-priced, and are centers of big urban areas; but by population of the city itself, they’re too small to be included here, which complicates the list. So now they’re on the too-small list, which is just a sampling of the many smaller cities with big drops of condo prices.

For example, prices from the peak in prior years:

• Killeen, TX: -42%
• Sarasota, FL: -21%
• Fort Myers, FL: -21%
• Bradenton, FL: -20%
• Naples, FL: -16%
• Lake Worth Beach, FL: -15%
• West Palm Beach, FL: -15%
• Boca Raton, FL: -14%
• Kissimmee, FL: -13%
• Clarksville, TN: -13%
• Greenville, SC: -12%
• Lakeland, FL: -12%

Didn’t make the 12% cut-off: There are many bigger cities where mid-tier condo prices have declined from their respective peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024, but not enough to make the 12% cut-off. Here are some salient examples (year of peak):

• New York City, NY: -11% (2022)
• San Antonio, TX: -11% (2024)
• Plano, TX: -11% (2022)
• Corpus Christi, TX: -11% (2023)
• Houston, TX: -10% (2024)
• Raleigh, NC: -10% (2022)
• Colorado Springs, CO -10% (2024)
• Sacramento, CA: -10% (2024)
• Salt Lake City, UT: -9% (2022)
• Dallas, TX: -9% (2023)
• Stockton, CA: -9% (2024)
• Washington, DC: -8% (2022)
• Atlanta, GA: -8% (2023)
• San Jose, CA: -7% (2022)
• Fort Worth, TX: -7%
• Las Vegas, NV: -7% (2022)
• Nashville, TN: -7% (2022)
• Oklahoma City, OK: -7% (2023)
• Miami, FL: -6% (2023)
• Los Angeles, CA: -6% (2022)
• San Diego, CA: -6% (2023)
• Long Beach, CA: -6% (2023)
• Memphis, TN: -6% (2024)
• Honolulu, HI: -6% (2022)

Year-over-year, prices declined in 22 of the 23 cities here in September. (exception: Boise unchanged), topped off by:

• St. Petersburg: -15.8%
• Cape Coral, FL: -15.7%
• Arlington, TX: -14.2%
• Oakland, CA: -12.8%
• Jacksonville, FL: -10.8%
• Tampa, FL: -10.2%
• Orlando, FL: -10.0%
• Port Saint Lucie, FL: -8.7%
• Garland, TX: -8.6%
• Aurora, CO: 8.0%
• Denver, FL: -7.6%

Condo prices in many of these cities, after running up for years, exploded from early 2020 through mid-2022 by 50%, 60%, 70% or more, in just two-and-a-half years, amidst an astounding FOMO-driven buying behavior and general investor-mania during the Free-Money era which created what was perhaps the most extraordinary condo bubble ever.

In the 10 years to the peak, prices exploded by 180% (Oakland), 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), by 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, Chandler), and 350% (Phoenix, Mesa). And by 500% in San Bernardino, CA, where prices have just started to decline and haven’t made the list yet. This stuff is just nuts.

Now these bubbles are deflating. The charts below, going back to 2003, visualize that process.

In some densely populated cities, such as San Francisco, condos often make up a bigger part of home sales than single-family homes.

Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops in “cities” (not in Metropolitan Statistical Areas) from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The Condo Bust in charts:

In the little tables for each city below, the metrics from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.

Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-28%	-1.3%	-12.8%	153%

Lowest since December 2015, nearly 10 years ago, and nearly back to the peak of Housing Bubble 1: In each of the last five months, prices dropped by 1.3% to 1.8% month to month. That’s steep!

Cape Coral, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-28%	-1.8%	-15.7%	145.1%

Back to where prices had first been in 2005, 20 years ago, below the peak of Housing Bubble 1. Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust.

Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25%	-0.2%	-5.9%	113%

Lowest since April 2021.

St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices
From Oct 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25%	-1.6%	-16%	193%

Lowest since August 2021. Prices had already plunged 1.9% in August, 2.0% in July, and 1.8% in June.

Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-1.1%	-10.2%	266%

San Francisco, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	0.0%	-1.7%	139%

Lowest since March 2015.

Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Nov 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.8%	-10.8%	153%

Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.4%	-7.6%	137%

Lowest since May 2021.

Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2021 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.6%	-3.3%	265%

Lowest since September 2018.

Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.8%	-14.2%	236%

Back to April 2022.

Seattle, WA, City Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.2%	-5.2%	136%

Lowest since September 2017.

Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.7%	-3.6%	246%

Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-1%	-8%	205%

Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2001
-14%	0.2%	0%	221%

Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Jan 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.9%	-10.0%	160.5%

Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.3%	-5.0%	110%

Lowest since June 2016.

Scottsdale, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.2%	-4.9%	196.4%

New Orleans, LA, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	0.4%	-1.2%	100%

Back to mid-2016.

Phoenix, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-5.2%	237%

Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.8%	-8.7%	242.6%

Mesa, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-4.5%	209%

Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.2%	-4.9%	196.4%

Chandler, AZ, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.1%	-3.6%	214.7%

Condos are facing a lot of issues, including:

• Prices that exploded over the past few years, driven by FOMO-addled buyers, including investors, and ended up being way too high.
• Hefty special assessments for long-neglected big repairs.
• Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, in part driven by spiking insurance costs.
• Fannie Mae’s ever-expanding Blacklist of condo buildings that makes financing a unit in one of those buildings very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers.
• The end of Free Money: Mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range.
• Foreign-based owners who’ve had it and want to sell.
• Investors in condos to rent them out are facing stiff competition from a wave of new higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.

And in case you missed it: The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in September 2025

 

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:

WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.