Oakland, Austin, Cape Coral, New Orleans, San Francisco, Birmingham, Fort Myers, Washington DC, Sarasota, Denver, Hayward, Portland, Phoenix, Naples, St. Petersburg.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Prices of mid-tier single-family homes in 15 bigger cities have dropped by 10% to 24% through September from their respective peaks in 2022 or 2024, seasonally adjusted – one more than a month ago, the new addition being St. Petersburg, FL. None of them had set a new high in 2023; it was set either in 2022 or in 2024 (year of peak):

1. Oakland, CA: -24% (2022)
2. Austin, TX: -24% (2022)
3. Cape Coral, FL: -20% (2022)
4. New Orleans, LA: -19% (2022)
5. San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
6. Birmingham, AL: -15% (2022)
7. Fort Myers, FL: -13% (2022)
8. Washington, DC: -13% (2022)
9. Sarasota, FL: -12% (2022)
10. Denver, CO: -11% (2022)
11. Hayward, CA: -11% (2022)
12. Portland, OR: -10% (2022)
13. Phoenix, AZ: -10% (2024)
14. Naples, FL: -10% (2024)
15. St. Petersburg, FL: -10% (2024)

Didn’t make the list: There are many other bigger cities where mid-tier single-family home prices have declined from their respective peaks in 2022 or 2024, but not enough to make the 10% cutoff. None of them had set a new high in 2023.

Four of them have dropped by about 9%; each monthly decline gets them closer to the double-digit zone. Others are still quite a bit away from the 10% line.

Here are some salient examples (year of peak):

• Fort Worth, TX: -9% (2022)
• Mesa, AZ: -9% (2022)
• Glendale, AZ: -9% (2022)
• Aurora, CO: -9% (2024)
• Gilbert, AZ: -8% (2022)
• Seattle, WA: -8% (2022)
• San Antonio, TX: -8% (2024)
• Sacramento, CA: -8% (2022)
• Boise, ID: -7% (2022)
• Memphis, TN: -7% (2022)
• Colorado Springs, CO: -7% (2022)
• Arlington, TX: -7% (2022)
• Tampa, Fl: -6% (2024)
• Dallas, TX: -6% (2024)
• Plano, TX: -6% (2024)
• San Jose, CA: -5% (2024)
• Atlanta, GA: -5% (2022)
• Jacksonville, FL: -5% (2024)
• Spokane, WA: -5% (2024)
• Orlando, FL: -4% (2024)
• Los Angeles, CA: -4% (2024)
• San Diego, CA: -4% (2024)
• Corpus Christi, TX: 14% (2024)
• Miami, FL: -3% (2024)
• Reno, NV: -3% (2024)

In some other bigger cities, prices of single-family homes have continued to rise or have flattened out. My discussion and charts of the price gains and declines in 33 large and expensive metropolitan areas from Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (-23% from peak) to Chicago-Naperville-Elgin (new high, +3.5% year-over-year), is here.

The entire pandemic price spike got wiped out in 4 of 15 cities. But in these four cities, the mid-2020 to mid-2022 price explosion was less pronounced than in other cities.

• San Francisco
• Oakland
• Washington, DC
• New Orleans.

Year-over-year, prices declined in all 15 cities in September, led by:

1. Fort Myers: -10.6%
2. Oakland: -10.2%
3. Cape Coral: -10.2%
4. Sarasota: -9.3%
5. St. Petersburg: -9.1%
6. Naples: -8.0%
7. Hayward: -7.5%
8. Austin: -6.8%

Methodology and data: These prices are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of single-family mid-tier homes in “cities” (not in Metropolitan Statistical Areas, which are much larger). All data here are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The 15 bigger cities with the biggest price declines:

The metrics in each table from left to right: price decline from the peak, month-over-month change (MoM), year-over-year change (YoY), and the remaining increase since January 2000 (for Birmingham, since 2002, which is as far as the data goes back).

Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-24%	-0.8%	-10.2%	277%

Another big month-to-month drop in prices of mid-tier single-family homes after -1.3% in August, -1.5% in July, -1.6% in June, and -1.4% in May!

Back to April 2018. The drop since May 2022 has more than wiped out the entire 24% price explosion from May 2020 to May 2022.

In the 10 years from mid-2012 to the peak in May 2022, prices exploded by 236%, which was obviously unsustainable.

Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-24%	-0.2%	-6.8%	166%

Lowest since April 2021. Prices have given up more than half of the 63% price explosion from mid-2020 to mid-2022.

These kinds of housing charts are absurd, a work of FOMO mania and the Fed’s free money that ended in 2022.

Cape Coral, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-20%	-0.8%	-10.2%	214%

Lowest since October 2021. Between mid-2020 to mid-2022, prices had exploded by 76%.

New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2007
-19%	-0.3%	-2.7%	108%

Back to April 2020. Prices have given up the entire 23% price spike between mid-2020 and mid-2022.

San Francisco, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	0.4%	-0.7%	234%

Back to May 2018.

Birmingham, AL, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2002
-15%	0.3%	-2.9%	32%

Back to June 2021. From mid-2020 to mid-2022, prices exploded by 53%, and have now given up about one-third of that.

 

Fort Myers, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.9%	-10.6%	189%

Lowest since January 2022. Prices had exploded by 62% from mid-2020 to mid-2022.

Washington D.C., Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.2%	-4.5%	272%

Lowest since April 2020, having undone the entire price spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022.

Sarasota, FL, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.9%	-9.3%	227%

Lowest since February 2022.

Denver, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.1%	-4.5%	212%

Lowest since November 2021.

Hayward, CA, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.8%	-8%	274%

Back to July 2021. Prices in this East Bay city spiked by 35% from mid-2020 to mid-2022, and soared by nearly 300% in the 10 years from 2012 to 2022.

Phoenix, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.3%	-4.5%	248%

Lowest since December 2021, only making a dent in the 60% price explosion from mid-2020 to mid-2022.

Naples, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Apr 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.9%	-8.0%	246.6%

Lowest since March 2022. Between mid-2020 and mid-2022 prices exploded by 76%. between mid-2020 to mid-2024, prices exploded by 82%.

Portland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	0.0%	-1.2%	222%

Back to June 2021.

St. Petersburg, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10%	-0.9%	-9.1%	354%

Lowest since March 2022.

And in case you missed it:  The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in September 2025

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.