Prices fell YoY in 22: Tampa, Austin, Miami, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Seattle… But rose in Chicago, Boston, New York, Philadelphia…
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Prices of mid-tier homes in September declined year-over-year in 22 of the 33 large and expensive metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that we track here, up from 21 in August, and up from 6 at the end of 2024. MSAs are Census Bureau designated large urban areas often with multiple cities.
Prices were down from their peaks in 2022, 2023, or 2024 in 23 of our 33 metros, amid ballooning supply and low demand. The top entry among the 33 metros here is Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX, where prices of mid-tier homes have plunged by 23.4% since mid-2022, and inventory has piled up massively.
Prices continued to skid in these markets because demand for existing single-family homes and condos has plunged while supply has surged.
In a few other metros of our 33 here, prices inched up to new records amid very tight supply. The top entry here is Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN, where prices rose 3.5% year-over-year, the most in this lineup, amid very tight inventory.
Prices declined YoY in September in 22 metros of our 33 metros:
- Tampa, FL: -6.3%
- Austin, TX: -5.9%
- Miami, FL: -4.7%
- Orlando, FL: -4.4%
- Dallas, TX: -3.9%
- San Francisco, CA: -3.8%
- Phoenix, AZ: -3.6%
- San Antonio, TX: -3.1%
- Atlanta, GA: -3.1%
- Denver, CO: -2.9%
- San Diego, CA: -2.7%
- Raleigh, NC: -2.3%
- Sacramento, CA: -2.2%
- Houston, TX: -2.1%
- San Jose, CA: -2.1%
- Honolulu, HI: -1.8%
- Portland, OR: -0.9%
- Los Angeles, CA: -0.9%
- Charlotte, NC: -0.8%
- Seattle, WA: -0.8%
- Las Vegas, NV: -0.6%
- Nashville, TN: -0.1%
Prices were down from their highs in prior years in 23 of the 33 metros.
The peaks of 17 metros were in 2022; Atlanta’s was in 2023, and the peaks of 5 (Miami, San Diego, Charlotte, San Jose, Los Angeles) were in 2024:
Percentage declines from their respective highs in prior years:
- Austin, TX: -23.4%
- San Francisco: -10.9%
- Phoenix: -10.3%
- San Antonio: -8.5%
- Denver: -7.2%
- Sacramento: -7.3%
- Tampa: -7.2%
- Dallas: -6.7%
- Honolulu: -5.3%
- Portland: -4.9%
- Orlando: -4.8%
- Miami: -4.7% (2024 peak)
- San Jose: -4.5% (2024 peak)
- Seattle: -4.0%
- Raleigh: -3.6%
- Atlanta: -3.2% (2023 peak)
- Salt Lake City: -3.1%
- Houston: -3.0%
- San Diego: -2.8% (2024 peak)
- Las Vegas: -2.8%
- Los Angeles: -2.5% (2024 peak)
- Nashville: -1.7%
- Charlotte: -1.0% (2024 peak)
Homebuilders have been taking share away from homeowners trying to sell; they have been building at a solid pace, and their inventories surged, and they have pushed sales by offering deals. For example, Lennar cut its average selling price by 22% from the peak in Q3 2022, bringing it back to 2019 levels. This price competition from homebuilders against homeowners trying to sell is particularly strong in the South and West.
Methodology: All pricing data here for the 33 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) is from the seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released today. The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Zillow’s Database of All Homes also has sales-pairs data.
To qualify for this list of 33 most splendid housing bubbles, the MSA must be one of the largest by population and must have had a ZHVI of at least $300,000 at some point. Some metros that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because their ZHVI has never reached $300,000, despite the blistering surge of home prices in recent years, such as the metros of New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
The 33 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.
In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. In the column furthest to the right: the percentage increase “since 2000.”
| Austin MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -23.4% | -0.3% | -5.9% | 148% |
The lowest since May 2021.
Prices in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA had exploded by 73% from January 2020 through June 2022, illustrating the absurdity that housing markets had turned into under the Fed’s reckless free-money monetary policy until 2022. When money is free, prices don’t matter. And this is what happened, but it’s now getting unwound:
Here is what active listings in Texas look like (data from Realtor.com).
| San Francisco MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10.9% | -0.2% | -3.8% | 282% |
Back to August 2021. From January 2020 through June 2022, prices exploded by 33%.
The San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro includes San Francisco, much of the East Bay (such as Oakland), much of the North Bay, and goes south on the Peninsula into Silicon Valley through San Mateo County. It does not include the San Jose metro, which covers the southern portion of the Bay Area (see below).
| Phoenix MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10.3% | -0.2% | -3.6% | 211% |
Back to January 2022. Prices exploded by 65% from January 2020 through June 2022.
| San Antonio MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -8.5% | -0.1% | -3.1% | 144% |
| Denver MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -7.2% | 0.0% | -2.9% | 203% |
| Sacramento MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -7.3% | -0.2% | -2.2% | 239.2% |
| Tampa MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -7.2% | -0.5% | -6.3% | 254% |
Prices exploded by 60% between January 2020 and June 2022.
| Dallas-Fort Worth MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -6.7% | -0.2% | -3.9% | 184% |
| Honolulu, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -5.3% | 0.1% | -1.8% | 275% |
| Portland MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.9% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 212% |
| Orlando MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From June 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.8% | -0.4% | -4.4% | 224% |
Prices exploded by 48% between January 2020 and June 2022.
| Miami MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Sep 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.7% | -0.4% | -4.7% | 313% |
| San Jose MSA, Home Prices | |||
| Fr Dec 2024 high | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.5% | 0.3% | -2.1% | 328% |
| Seattle MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.0% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 232% |
| Raleigh MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.6% | -0.2% | -2.3% | 152% |
| Atlanta MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.2% | -0.1% | -3.1% | 156% |
Prices exploded 51% between January 2020 and June 2022.
| Salt Lake City MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.1% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 217% |
| Houston MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.0% | -0.2% | -2.1% | 147% |
| San Diego MSA, Home Prices | |||
| Fr Jul 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -2.8% | -0.2% | -2.7% | 327% |
| Las Vegas MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From June 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -2.8% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 178% |
| Los Angeles MSA, Home Prices | |||
| Fr Dec 2024 high | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -2.4% | 0.1% | -0.9% | 325% |
| Nashville MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -1.7% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 215% |
| Charlotte MSA, Home Prices | |||
| Fr May 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -1.0% | 0.0% | -0.8% | 166% |
Prices exploded by 54% between January 2020 and June 2022.
| Washington D.C. MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.0% | 0.9% | 216% |
| Boston MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.2% | 1.1% | 226% |
| Columbus MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.2% | 1.4% | 155% |
| Baltimore MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | |
| 0.1% | 2.1% | 177% | |
| Minneapolis MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.3% | 2.1% | 160% |
| Kansas City MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.5% | 2.5% | 180% |
| New York MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.2% | 3.1% | 220% |
| Philadelphia MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.2% | 3.2% | 209% |
| Milwaukee MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.4% | 3.4% | 151.6% |
| Chicago MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.4% | 3.5% | 119% |
And inventory in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN metro:
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Most of the declines are way too small to approach affordability.
Those declines are not declines compared to long term trends.
You people have been spoiled rotten by cryptos that can collapse overnight. Housing doesn’t do that (but office CRE got close). The last housing bust took 4-6 years, depending on market. Tulsa was in a housing bust for something like 20 years.
Chicago metro with Cook, Will, DuPage, Lake (IL), Kane and McHenry Counties are going to include people moving a few miles within the area, a time-honored tradition. Chicago west and far south sides would have some houses worth next to nothing, but never changing hands. Wonder if Lake County Indiana, just across from Chicago far south side and southeast suburbs is included(?)
So today a Midwest real estate agent who has been around for several years told me that many of the agents are going to AI chat gpt to come up with the description verbiage.
Sheesh.
Yes, Lake County, Indiana, is included.
The Chicago MSA includes these 13 counties: Cook, DuPage, Grundy, McHenry, Will, DeKalb, Kane, Kendall, Lake (IL), Jasper, Newton, Lake (IN), and Porter.
It is good to see deflation somewhere!
It is a disappointment though that the decrease in price of what is the second most essential human need is often not as a positive circumstance.
… I say this while back in my current country of residence there remains no sign of house price deflation on the horizon. (To the detriment of around 35% of the population, but cheered on by the 65% who own their own home.)