And the backlog of unfilled orders remained at record high.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
New orders for durable goods received by manufacturers in the US in April “plunged,” as the headlines had it, by 6.3% in April from March, on “Tariff Uncertainty,” or better yet, “as Trade Policy Swings Rattle Manufacturers,” or whatever, the worst drop since Adam and Eve, etc. etc.
But they’d jumped by 7.6% in March, driven by huge Boeing orders in March, and the plunge in April was driven by the lack of huge Boeing orders, because that’s what aircraft orders do, one month an airline orders dozens of jets, and the next month no airline orders dozens of jets, and then the next month, another airline orders dozens of jets, and huge month-to-month spikes and plunges are normal – and the three-month average irons them out.
And the three-month average of durable goods orders rose by 0.6% in April from March to a record $302 billion (red line).
Excluding Defense and excluding Nondefense Aircraft & Parts. Durable goods orders excluding “nondefense aircraft & parts” (so excluding Boeing among others) and excluding “defense” declined by 1.3% from the record in March to $261 billion. Note the ups and downs in the blue line in the chart below. It always does that. But the three-month average irons out those squiggles.
The three-month average rose by 0.3% to a record $263 billion (red in the chart below).
This is a measure of demand for US-manufactured durable goods that excludes defense and the ups and downs of civilian aircraft orders. It’s an indicator of business and consumer demand for durable goods, other than aircraft, manufactured in the US, such as machinery; motor vehicles of all kinds; fabricated metal products; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; etc.
The historic boom in orders coming out of the pandemic shortages peaked in late 2022, then eased off a little but remained at high levels in 2023, and in 2024 started rising again.
And in March and April 2025, the three-month average set records again.
Orders for aircraft and parts are the biggest source of the volatility in overall durable goods orders. They have massive month-to-month swings as a matter of routine. In February, there were $14 billion in orders, in March $37 billion, and in April $18 billion.
The order backlog remains at record highs, after a big spike in March to $1.41 trillion. Of those unfilled orders, $596 billion are for nondefense aircraft and parts.
Unfilled orders without nondefense aircraft and parts also remain high, unchanged in April at $813 billion. After the surge during the pandemic shortages, manufacturers were expected to be able to reduce their backlog again, but it remains 35% higher than at the beginning of 2020:
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Well shit. I bought 10,000 pounds of squirrel meat for the upcoming recession
Great article 🐺🐺🐺
I bought bitcoin and some radishes from a local peasant kulak. I am bing chillin
Lol
Modest suggestion for the proposed Apple tariffs: Instead of applying the tariff to the final price of the phone, just apply it to the price component added by the Foxcon assembler, at most 25$ per phone. Then the hundreds of billions that have flowed to the US shareholders can continue, and the crumbs flowing to the girls on the final assembly line can continue.
Assume you’re being sarcastic?
This apple tariff might just be Trump being hurt from Tim Cook not going on Middle East trip. Not like Apple is going to manufacture here for anyone that has diced into just how big of investments Apple has made overseas. Hard to even guess what decisions will be made next which of course is what businesses dislike immensely. The US might currently be a larger consumer market but is less than 5% of world population and those consumer markets will grow.
The recession callers lose again.
not sure about recession, but confident that fiat $dollar is losing value daily
the recession is when you have to finance food costs
Yes. The Royal Society for Putting Things on Top of Other Things says business is booming.
May we all find a better day.
I can only assume that Mr. Wolf is smart beyond belief and the talking heads on CNBC are as dumb as rocks. What other explanation can there be?
@Ervin: Jim Cramer confessed a few years back in an interview with Jon Stewart that CNBC is an entertainment channel. So there’s that.
In addition, most of their guests have their own agenda. One example is the professor from Wharton who has his own line of ETFs – so he shills for interest rate cuts so that the market can keep going up.
I think that is a confirmed fact rather than an assumption, which is why I subscribe to Wolfstreet and barely watch CNBC any more except for Shark Tank reruns while I’m on a cardio machine at the gym.
The talking heads on (insert network here) do as they are told by their corporate masters in order to keep their jobs.
All media is entertainment at this point, designed to garner eyeballs in which to advertise to.
Sandy,
The talking heads are hostage to their Corporate advertisers. That’s who pays the bills to the Networks. They will never speak a word against any of them.
“After the surge during the pandemic shortages, manufacturers were expected to be able to reduce their backlog again, but it remains 35% higher than at the beginning of 2020”
My question is sorta two sided:
Why the previous imbalance?
How is it good business to allow it to grow and remain at a new/ higher level?
My thoughts surrounding the possible answers:
The level of backlog seems to have been increasing through 2014. Without previous years’ data, my assumption is that it was related to caution post GFC and the peak in oil prices (then subsequent crash)?
That appears to have been worked down, bottoming out during the pandemic (except aircraft, as it was the end of all travel as we knew it… or not).
Post pandemic, I thought there was trillions of dollars and multiple plans to stimulate onshore manufacturing (presumably already in the works , in order to MAGA1?).
This is now a 5+ year old story, leading to question 2/3: is there any substantial increase in domestic manufacturing? I have seen the articles about the increase in construction, presumably for manufacturing.
Will this spending be effective for lowering the backlog?
remember pre-pandemic
virtually all manufactures(call them assemblers) used JIT systems
so delays caused huge backlogs
and then they had sold off all their warehouses used for inventory
Hmm. Interesting data. There is a fine line between “unfilled orders” and shortages. At least that’s what my depression-era grandfather would say.
The “Pull-Forward” Effect:
Some analysts believe that the pandemic pulled forward a lifetime’s worth of demand for Peloton, leading to a surge that was unsustainable in the long run.
Peloton may have overestimated the long-term growth potential based on the pandemic-fueled demand.
Peloton as a Pandemic Symbol:
Peloton became a symbol of the pandemic era and the shift towards at-home everything.
While the pandemic created a unique opportunity for Peloton, it also set the stage for the challenges the company faced as the world returned to a new normal.
Cut down more trees build more houses, we are short housing the USA. Run out buy a new car before tariffs put them out reach, stock on steaks before they run out at the grocery store. America runs on bullshit, the Shock and Awe economy keeps moving. West Coast Longshoremen needed a raise, now bitching that there is not enough cargo coming into the ports. Russia wants a war? We are deeply dependent on China as our largest trading partner a communist country. You can’t make this shit up.