These Crisis Markets Got Crushed… Time to Get in?

America is Ground Zero

J. Spittler, editor of The Daily Dispatch: What are some of your most successful crisis investments?

Nick Giambruno: In 2013, the tiny European island of Cyprus had a banking crisis. Its stock market plunged 98%. It was one of the most significant financial crises in recent memory.

So Doug Casey and I packed our suitcases and boarded a plane for Cyprus. We put our “boots to the ground” and looked through the rubble for incredible bargains.

At the time, there were sound, productive, and well-run businesses in Cyprus making money and paying dividends. Some of these companies were trading for less than 50% of their book value…literally pennies on the dollar.

We recommended eight Cypriot stocks to our readers. One was a resort company that operates luxurious beachfront hotels in Cyprus. We made a 210% gain on that one. We booked a 170% gain on a technology company. We also recommended two consumer goods companies. One of those doubled. The other nearly doubled.

We’ve also had success recently. This month, we locked in a 103% gain on a beaten-up gold stock. I expect other stocks in the Crisis Investing portfolio to deliver even bigger gains.

J. S.: Is there a specific crisis market you’re currently invested in or watching?

Nick Giambruno: Right now, there’s a genuine crisis in the platinum market. Like most commodities, platinum has plunged in recent years. The price of platinum is 44% below its five-year high.

The platinum market is a bloodbath. Still, it wasn’t until recently that I became interested in it. You see, many people call platinum “the richer man’s gold.” That’s because it’s almost always more expensive than gold. There have only been a few times in the last hundred years that the price of platinum has dipped below the price of gold. Today is one of those times.

Right now, an ounce of gold will nearly buy an ounce and a quarter of platinum. That’s a historic anomaly. Priced in gold, platinum is at an all-time low:


At the very least, I expect platinum prices to revert to the mean. Platinum miners could go many times higher. That’s because they’re leveraged to the price of platinum. A small jump in the price of platinum could mean big gains for these stocks.

Certain platinum miners could return 500% or more in the coming years. In the latest issue of Crisis Investing, I told readers the best platinum company to invest in right now. It could easily double as the market “corrects” its historical anomaly.

J. S.: Very interesting… Any others?

Nick Giambruno: I’m also invested in the oil industry.

Oil prices have gotten crushed over the past couple years. At one point, they were down more than 70% since 2014. And these low prices have put the industry in “survival mode.” Last year, at least 67 U.S. oil companies filed bankruptcy. Analysts estimate as many as 150 could follow.

I think the downturn in the oil market is largely a function of the Saudis, who have declared war on the American shale industry.

In the 1990s, the U.S. imported close to 25% of its oil from Saudi Arabia. Today, it only imports 5%. Methods like fracking are a major reason why. These innovations unlocked billions of barrels of shale oil and helped America become more energy independent.

The Saudis have kept pumping oil despite low prices. This has kept prices low. In short, the Saudis have successfully damaged the U.S. shale oil industry, their biggest competitor. And they’ll continue to do damage as long as they’re flooding the market.

The shale industry has more staying power than Saudi Arabia, which is already bleeding cash because of this “oil war.”

The collapse of oil prices has given us a second chance to invest in the American shale revolution. A couple months ago, I told my readers to take advantage of this incredible opportunity. We bought the best shale oil company at a bargain price.

This world-class company is an innovator that was at the forefront of the shale oil boom. It has “trophy assets” in America’s richest oil regions…a rock-solid balance sheet…and some of the industry’s best profit margins. Most importantly, the company is making money. Some of its projects are profitable at as low as $35 oil.

Thanks to the oil crisis, we were able to pick up the world-class company at an incredible price. The stock is up 7% in less than two months and is likely to head much higher. And it’s still on sale today.

J. S.: Thanks for sharing, Nick.

Doug Casey just released his forecast for America. He says in late 2016, the worst financial depression in history will hit… wiping out the savings of unprepared investors. But for those who see the writing on the wall now, it presents a rare opportunity… a chance to make thousands while this crisis transpires. Click here for the full details.

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  50 comments for “These Crisis Markets Got Crushed… Time to Get in?

  1. Petunia says:

    I like the platinum call. Metals with real utility like platinum and silver are better investments than gold.

    • frederick says:

      Thats your opinion however certainly not shared by everyone Remember that Gold is money and nothing else except silver to a lesser degree Once this worldwide credit implosion gets going in earnest İ suspect there wont be much demand for platinum Gold and Silver are the “anti dollar” and will shine when the petrol dollar gets dethroned İMO and by the way Pet the trustee in the chapter 11 case located my stored silver and is getting a court order to return it to me İ guess there is a god

      • Petunia says:

        I don’t know where you get the idea that gold is the only metal considered money. In Latin America the word for money is Plata, silver.

        If you want a glimpse into what you can expect with your silver, in the mint bankruptcy, refer to the MF Global mess.

        BTW, when the credit implosion occurs be sure not to be invested in Hamptons real estate. I expect it will become a grave yard.

    • randombypasser says:

      If i recall right roughly 60% of platinum production is used by manufacturing and the remaining 40% is mainly used in jewelry.

      So if manufacturing sector has been facing some hardships lately then maybe there’s been some effects of this on the platinum demand side.

      One thing which had some hit on platinum was palladium’s increased usage in car catalytic converters as palladium is less expensive and nearly as good as platinum.

      Maybe platinum is good investment, i don’t know, but i wouldn’t recommend anyone investing on any pm’s.

    • Agnes says:

      I like to value what is under- or over- valued by what it can be traded for historically. For hundreds of years a working stiff got paid between a tenth to one ounce of silver PER DAY. Let’s say that silver is 16$/ounce and a person works all day for that ounce. Is silver under- or over-valued? If I did the math right I can buy 3 candy bars for a silver quarter when I used to be able to buy 5(when silver quarters were in circulation).

      .76(percentage Silver ounces by face value)x.25(a quarter)x16$rough price of silver=3$(three candy bars)

      One might of course say that the under- or over- valuation rests with the labor or the candy :) And I think that is fine. Silver can’t be printed though. I dislike thinking in dollars.

      As you said below Petunia, for emergencies it is well to be stocked up. Silver isn’t tasty

    • Pakilolo says:

      OK …so no one here gives a f… about the planet’s ecosystem or how the next generation is going to survive. Platinum mining is very destructive and investing in fossil fuels is saying screw you to the Earth and the human species. I will never invest in the destruction of our home planet.

  2. LG says:

    Right in stagnating global economy there must be something of value! Said the unicorn!

  3. bud says:

    Canned Asparagus has a shelf life of 10 years or more. Toilet paper well that is decades right along with rice.
    Some one will need some when they can’t buy a damn thing with gold, silver, or platinum at the San Francisco or Washington D.C. Safeway food store…just as in Venezuela. When the real…I mean the real shiu hits as so many think, I will keep my Asparagus, rice and TP close to my side.
    You can’t eat metal, but you could wipe your butt with it.

    • Petunia says:

      In Florida, due to the hurricanes, we learned to stock food that doesn’t need cooking like tuna fish and Vienna sausages, and things you could easily cook on a grill, Spam, soup, etc. They came in handy more than once. The most important thing to stock is water, lots of it.

    • EVENT HORIZON says:

      Don’t forget the 2 most valuable things on Earth: Cigarettes and Tampons.

    • polecat says:

      I suppose, in that light, you could consider PMs ‘reusable !! ;’)

  4. Paulo says:

    Shale oil only came to prominence due to $100+ oil prices and 0% interest rates forcing investors to chase yield/hype.

    Buy at your own risk. I wouldn’t touch energy stocks with a 10 foot pole. Then again, I’m not an industry insider. If you are an insider, then great you have a chance to make a few bucks. But retail investors buying on tips are the bread and butter of those with the inside track. And we all know what happens to bread and butter…it gets eaten.

    • Colorado Kid says:

      Here in W. Colorado, land of oil shale riches, one can see huge lots filled to the brim with idle oil rig equipment. Part of my family has been in the oil biz since the 1950s, and my uncle was one of the first drillers on the North Slope in AK. My great-grandparents had oil rigs in Kansas back at the turn of the century. I have a wealthy friend (maybe not so wealthy these days) who owns a large percentage of NW Colorado’s oil leases.

      Would I invest in oil? Not in a million years. It’s too volatile, and if you’re not an insider, you have no idea of what’s really going on.

      My cousin built up a beautiful nonprofit western museum based on ranchers who donated the oil leases to their lands. I talked to him not too long ago and he’s worried about things, as the leases are now almost worthless.

      • EVENT HORIZON says:

        You will do fine in the oil business if you have no debt.

        With no debt, you can lift the oil for you immediate costs and sell it, for what, $10 a barrel?

        Debt is the problem. Not the cost of oil extraction. If investors would buy into the company, with “shares” as they did 200 years ago, then they would make money at any price.

  5. Keith says:

    Gold could always fall and bring the long term ratios in line with Platinum

  6. Colorado Kid says:

    If I had tons of money I would be buying water shares all over the Western U.S.

    • EVENT HORIZON says:

      That is why they called the stock “watered” . You can thank Jay Gould for that.

  7. Valuationguy says:

    Given political and economic backdrop….I highly doubt the premise that the Saudi’s targeted the U.S. shale oil industry.

    While it is true that the shale oil industry has taken the brunt of the blow from the Saudi’s failure to limit production (and its decisions to actually increase it)….the bigger reality is that the Saudi’s have an incredible need for cash flow to pay off the masses in their country as well as pay for the investments and lifestyles that the leadership require.

    I think the Saudi’s (and particularly the inexperienced Crown Prince who took over the reins recently and has bumbled his way from one bad situation to another…making them worse by his passage) totally misread the political and economic situation and the global reaction to their abandoning their strategic gatekeeper role regarding ‘high but stable’ oil prices. U.S. shale oil had very little effect on global oil markets price since the U.S. doesn’t have the facilities in place to export much of it….nor does the U.S. import much oil from the Saudi’s.

    What I read happened was the Crown Prince overplayed his hand with Obama…and got slapped in the face with Obama’s overtures to Iran….the Saudi’s #1 regional rival. The surprise of Obama’s move (which was/is highly controversial) is what cratered oil prices as the world repriced in the return of volume production from Iran. In response the Saudi’s allowed the price to fall (even encouraged it for awhile) on the hopes that it would hurt Iran and lead to regime change.

    Now they are however stuck. Iran was more resilient than predicted (with Chinese and SE Asia support) and oil prices became so low as to engender a cash flow panic within the Kingdom as the country scrambled to attract the (US)$’s they needed to keep their economy going. Thus….despite the fact no one has decreased production, all land-based storage facilities in most oil production areas are at practical capacity, and sea-born storage capacity is a money-loser…..the price of oil has moved back to nearly $50/bbl.

    My personal view is that markets are predicting that both Mexican and Venezuelan oil production is going to be seriously curbed by events and/or lack of investment….in addition to the slowdown in U.S. and Canadian production as there is NO WHERE to send additional oil being pumped without demand picking up…which isn’t predicted. Once you hit the storage barrier….the back-up will quickly become apparent upstream…forcing production cuts…even despite cash flow needs. (I think we are already there…but that the industry press is so afraid of pointing this out that they are remaining relatively quiet…hoping something breaks free to save them.)

    • Petunia says:

      I don’t follow the oil business, but I do follow politics, and the economy will be kept from crashing until the election. After that the gloves are off and que sera sera.

    • EVENT HORIZON says:

      Put import tariffs on imported oil so that the US oil industry can supply us.

      This will shut down Saudi imports, as well as Mexico and Venezuela.

      These are countries that Hate us. Let us HATE them back. Let’s be equal.

      With the tariffs, use this money to DECREASE income taxes for all the middle class….make the income tax “0” for all those making less than about $200,000 a year.

      Then, we can tell the Middle East and Central/South America to “GO TO HELL”. We do not need them. They need us.

      If we Americans got our act together, we would realize there is not a single thing we need to Import. We can have a 1st World Nation all by ourselves. We, really, do not need the world for anything. They need us.

    • d says:


      US Shale was and is, simply enjoyable collateral damage.

      The Saudis wait for the next POTUS and work from there. O bummer sold them out in the Iran deal.

      They are not Happy Camper”s, not Happy AT ALL.

    • nick kelly says:’s a price war followed by a price crash as in at least a dozen times in the last century. Oil hit 10 a barrel in the early eighties- spawning the bumper sticker “Please God send another boom and this time I won’t p*ss it away”
      Similar but worse crash now in iron ore- down 75%.
      Then there was silver’s 80’s crash from 50 to less than 10.
      I don’t know where the author gets the idea that shale has bottomed. We still have to burn through the remaining credit and hedges, which will probably happen in 6-12 months.
      I think a major factor in what has been ‘extend and pretend’ was loan officers being reluctant to fess up. Those days are coming to an end and so probably are a few banks.

      • nick kelly says:

        Guy on Bloomberg this AM (26th) calling for $15 a barrel.

        • Thomas Malthus says:

          If that happens we will not have oil for much longer.

          OIL PRODUCERS NEED $100+ OIL

          Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said

        • nick kelly says:

          TM: the Middle East and Russian fields don’t have dividend programs.
          I think there is some confusion between cost of production and requirements for budgets e.g. Russia ‘needs’ 100 and Saudi or Venezuela ‘needs’ 120 to balance their budget.
          Saudi cost of production- it’s ‘lift price’ from existing wells is under $10- probably closer to five.
          BTW; You can bring up charts showing the cost of oil corrected for inflation back to WWII. The price only got over 10 for the first time after the 1973-74 ME war. It was a reaction to a cartel with Saudi as boss, restricting supply, something like DeBeers creating an artificial shortage of diamonds.
          The oil cartel no longer exists in any operative sense.

          If a bunch of share holders don’t get their dividend or if some majors go bust (Penn West a medium size player seems heading that way) it won’t stop the low cost producers from wanting to eat.
          Saudi. Emirates, Russia, Iran and Venezuela have NOTHING else to sell.

        • Thomas Malthus says:

          The Saudis pay massive divdends — to their people. Literally tens of billions are paid to out – to keep the people from ripping the country and the House of Saud to pieces.

          As for big oil not paying out dividends — forget about finding investors to fund exploration if you don’t pay dividends.

          Think of it this way:

          Let’s say Apple’s cost at the factory are $100 to make an iphone.

          Can they sell for $101 and be profitable?

          Of course not!

          They have a huge number of other costs including R&D, distribution, marketing etc etc etc…

          As do oil producers.

          If you really want to go in depth on this I suggest you read this research report – it was put in front of investment and commercial banks a few years ago – and published by the FT

          THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 58 onwards)

          The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel.

          I used to rant and rave at Bernanke and his ‘insane’ policies.

          And then I read this. And the lights went on.

          I finally understood what was going on – what the central banks were fighting against.

          Oh – and a bought a farm in a remote part of New Zealand and obtained residency in the country soon after.

        • nick kelly says:

          TM: so who cuts production- the only way to increase the price?
          There are all kinds of opinion on this but most agree that Saudi or low cost production will not cut before high cost production- shale and oil sands.
          Slowly this is happening- mostly to shale. And why is shale production falling? Because it can’t pay dividends? Because it can’t afford exploration? Mainly, because the price is below its cost of production.
          BTW: the largess the Saudi’s distribute is not contractual, and has been lower in the recent past. If you’d ever been there you would be less likely to expect popular uprising.

        • Thomas Malthus says:

          Interesting – I guess the shale revolution isn’t going to last 100 years — and the US is not the new Saudi Arabia…

          Funny that

  8. NY Geezer says:

    I would never trust a person who tries to justify a higher price for platinum based primarily its relationship to the price of gold.

    Not too long ago, when oil was over $100, a $12+ natural gas price was frequently predicted based upon the 8 to 1 ratio of oil to gas that had prevailed for years. After half a dozen years, it is safe to say that the ratio is no longer in effect as a basis for predicting much higher natural gas prices, although it might have some validity for predicting much lower oil prices.

    The fact that “there have only been a few times in the last hundred years that the price of platinum has dipped below the price of gold” may not be an indication that platinum is too cheap. It may be an indication that gold is too expensive.

  9. wratfink says:

    I don’t know how Mr. Casey’s outfit operates, but it seems a little strange that he is giving free advice on oilco investing when he charges his subscribers for such advice.

    I actually fall in line with Valuationguy’s scenario more than Mr. Giambruno’s. Perhaps they need to unload some shares that didn’t pan out so they are giving “free” advice.

    Not buying…

  10. Bobcat says:

    Gold to hold
    Silver to spend
    Lead to throw

    – an unknown but astute source

  11. What’s been happening for the past 7-8 years has been the decline of money-making-money … getting that free lunch.

    Anyone paying attention that the key to success has been leveraging the Fed and other central banks. Low interest rates (rigged low interest rates) make assets inviting with large nominal free lunches … for those able to borrow.

    Who gets those? HFT-ers, government ‘friends’, tycoons and those with inside information (tycoons). The rest are dumb-money suckers to be separated from their dough. This is why there are so few retail investors any more. They cannot win … it’s the end of money making money. It is likely going forward that most of the financial assets will wind up becoming worthless. If nothing else, derivative exposure will bankrupt the finance firms trade and hold assets.

    Somebody puts out a newsletter that says you can double your money … I have shares in a nice bridge that might interest you.

  12. Thomas Malthus says:


    That assumes there is a future – and that the future does not resemble ‘The Road’

    Total collapse is baked into the cake.

    Other than a large sack of gold (just in case) I no longer waste my time investing.

    I can’t think of anything more pointless.

  13. Juergen says:

    From my Point of view you can’t predict oil. There’s way too much sentiment in it. If you just compare fundamentals of Jan-2016 and today with Brent prices of 27 USD then and 50 USD today you won’t find NOTHING to justify an almost doubling of prices.

  14. ML says:

    One can only make money in an imperfect market. The more that is known about the market, the more money that is washing around the system, the fewer the imperfections and less opportunity for profit.

    One of the best ways for shrewd operators to get out of markets that are perfecting is to promote to the uninformed that the market is a good one to invest in.

    • nick kelly says:

      True- in a zero sum game like poker, or most trading.
      Then there is innovation- Model T or micro- computer, where the profit to an investor is not someone else’s loss but the surplus the invention creates.

      It would be nice if we could have more of it, and less of the casino you describe. Tuning capitalism to this effect to me is the number one task facing governments in the Western democracies.

      • Thomas Malthus says:

        Given there are no longer any fundamentals I have to wonder if one has a higher chance of making money by heading to Macau – or Vegas — and hitting the casinos.

        If you lose at least you had a good time.

  15. nick kelly says:

    Interesting guy on Bloomberg this AM who’s been trading oil for 20 years says oil is massively over stored- he was calling for 15 a while ago, thinks that is more likely than 50-60

  16. Lee says:


    It would be interesting to have your readers put up two or three ‘investments’ and see how they do over the next couple of years.

    For example, currencies, metals, or shares.

    With the current world mess, all sorts of interesting things could happen………………

    I’d also be interested in seeing what is actually happening in the oil leases market. Years ago there were a number of sites that I had access to that held auctions/sales of these assets. They ranged from small packages of producing wells to company size lots.

    I wonder if the price of leases has followed the price of oil down……….

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Lee, I don’t really have a mechanism by which to track commenters’ investment suggestions in an efficient manner. It’s a good idea, though…

      In terms of oil leases, “Colorado Kid” posted this excellent comment yesterday (note the phrase, “almost worthless”):

      “Here in W. Colorado, land of oil shale riches, one can see huge lots filled to the brim with idle oil rig equipment. Part of my family has been in the oil biz since the 1950s, and my uncle was one of the first drillers on the North Slope in AK. My great-grandparents had oil rigs in Kansas back at the turn of the century. I have a wealthy friend (maybe not so wealthy these days) who owns a large percentage of NW Colorado’s oil leases.

      “Would I invest in oil? Not in a million years. It’s too volatile, and if you’re not an insider, you have no idea of what’s really going on.

      “My cousin built up a beautiful nonprofit western museum based on ranchers who donated the oil leases to their lands. I talked to him not too long ago and he’s worried about things, as the leases are now almost worthless.”

      The value of oil leases has plunged, we know that. By how much? That depends. They may not quite be “almost worthless,” but it’s pretty bad. Bankruptcy proceedings of oil and gas companies show just how little oil and gas assets are bringing. They were used as collateral. And those who thought that they held senior secured debt are finding out the recovery can be small.

  17. Agnes says:

    Tariffs go directly to the government, and do not lower the price of goods to consumers or lower the costs of business to (local)producers. So why do they get proposed over and over? Qui bono.

    • d says:

      Tariffs raise the price of producer state subsidized imported good’s that are being Dumped (Sold below their real production and shipping costs) and unfairly competing with locally produced and other fairly imported and priced good’spriced goods.

      Protecting what is left of the American steel industry, and so America should.

      America needs to aggressively protect what Industry’s it has left or china will destroy them with unfair state subsidized dumping.

      Yes the Tariff funds go to the State.

      They help to cover some of the unemployment expenses caused by chinese dumping and unfair competition in other industry’s.

      Copetition rea dteh english vesion aspplied to commercial practice.

      Thyen consider this

      The chinese understanding of competition is to DESTROY the competitor using all and any mean’s, including: undercutting, state subzidys, sabotage, industrial espionage, Etc. They do this to each other as well a sto teh west.

      The chinese are happy with, and strive for, dominant monopoly’s

      Fair competition is a stupid western insanity that reduces then maximum profit available to the dominant supplier. A very unchinese concept.

      In old china even the Bordellos and Bars in all towns and citys were controlled by a small group under the local Mandarin.

      Monopoly’s in Taiwan under the Nationalist (Fascist) Administration were not something they invented. They are older then the system the mandarins with their crony’s operated in china

      Paper money, Paper Bond’s representing Paper Money or Metals. Excessive money printing, and the financial collapses that go with it.

      Bribery, Corruption, Crony Capitalism, and Monopoly’s, all invented and perfected in china, by chinese long before there was a Roman Empire or possibly even a greek one.

      Bearer Bond’s, enabled the silk road to old Persia. Prior the Persian invasion’s of greece and the surrounding Nation’s.

      over 3000 years ago.

      The corrupt chinese Communists (Probably lasting less than 150years) will end as a footnote in chinas, corrupt, crony capitalist, dictatorial, and oppressive, history.

      • Agnes says:

        Dang I am going to have to think about this a few days d. I will get back to you.

        • d says:

          Thinking is good.

          American produces Good quality steel widget and ships it from his loading dock @ 100.00 USD.

          Chinaman, has State subsided dirty energy, poor garbage disposal. No safety or worker protection standards, Pays no overtime, pays slave labour rates, gets ultra cheap state guaranteed finance as the company is 60% state owned. Buys his steel on long-term interest free credit, from a state company that produces steel in the same way.

          Copies the American widget and makes it at lower quality, that will not last as long. with inconsistent quality control. Carries no spare parts.

          Ship’s it from his loading dock in china @ 60.00 USD.

          Loads a container full of them, pays to have the documents processed though outgoing customs, and have the container Shipped to the Port, loaded on ship, pays freight company to ship the goods to America. . ‘

          In America goods are unloaded from ship customs cleared, Payment is made to reease good from port, goods are the trucked to unloading facility and the container is unpacked.

          So how come chiman charges @ 50.00 USD in America from his unpackers warehouse dock, plus local sales tax. For the widget he sells at warehouse dock in china without all those other expenses @ 60.00 USD.

          Except with steel we are talking a lot more than 16.5% less at the dock in the US, than in china. And they are doing it in the US, India, and The Eu, @ Hundred’s of millions of tons a year.

          Nuts bolts screw’s washer in the Eu hundreds of thousand’s of tons of them, they are undercutting Eu manufacturers by over 50% yet selling in the Eu at less than manufacturers sales price in china.

          In china. Competition, means to utterly destroy the competitor, using any, and all means possible. Fair, Ethical, Moral, and legal. Does not come into the equation.

          Large Tarrifs should have been applied 25 Years ago, then perhaps the West wouldn’t be in the mess it is now.

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