Amid Canada’s Huge Immigration Surge, Population Growth Hits 3.2%, Fuels 10% Rent Inflation, even as Home Prices Drop by Wolf Richter • Mar 27, 2024 • 81 Comments The record 1.27 million immigrants that arrived last year have to live somewhere.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2024 Update: Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Las Vegas by Wolf Richter • Mar 26, 2024 • 141 Comments 20-City Index drops for 3rd month in a row, forms Double Top. Only Washington DC sets new all-time high.
Prices of New Houses -19% from Peak, Lowest since June 2021. Why Sales of New Houses Held Up, while Sales of Existing Houses Plunged by Wolf Richter • Mar 25, 2024 • 108 Comments Prices of New Houses v. Existing Houses: Price cuts and mortgage-rate buydowns make new houses more attractive.
The Fed’s Liabilities: How Far Can QT Go? What’s the Lowest Possible Level of the Balance Sheet without Blowing Stuff Up? by Wolf Richter • Mar 23, 2024 • 241 Comments Reserves, Domestic ON RRPs, Currency in Circulation, the TGA, and official foreign RRPs determine how far QT can go.
Prices of Existing Homes in Germany Tank 14% so far, as ECB-Fueled Housing Bubble Turns into Housing Bust by Wolf Richter • Mar 22, 2024 • 111 Comments Germany is an example of what interest-rate repression and QE do to home prices, and what happens when inflation causes those policies to be reversed.
Amid Weak Demand for Existing Homes, Active Listings & Price Reductions Jump, Listing Prices Weaken by Wolf Richter • Mar 21, 2024 • 117 Comments “Many potential buyers are postponing their purchasing plans in hopes of securing lower rates. Consequently, lower buyer competitions exerted downward pressure on prices”: Realtor.com
What Powell Said About Slowing the Pace of QT: “By Going Slower, You Can Get Farther” by Wolf Richter • Mar 20, 2024 • 158 Comments They learned a lesson from the mess in 2019, which Powell referred to several times.
Fed Still Sees 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, But 2-Cut Scenario only 1 Participant Short, Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Continues as Planned by Wolf Richter • Mar 20, 2024 • 208 Comments Raises longer-run rate projection (higher for longer), and projections for inflation and GDP in 2024.
Intel to Get $23 Billion in Government Grants & Loans Plus $25 Billion Investment Tax Credits, to Invest $100 Billion in the US, after Wasting $94 Billion on Share Buybacks in 15 Years by Wolf Richter • Mar 20, 2024 • 89 Comments Sure, good industrial and security policy to put semiconductor production on US soil. But these massive government handouts to the richest companies?
Bank of Japan Keeps Making its Loosest-Ever Monetary Policy Slightly Less Loose in Tiny Steps at Slowest-Ever Snail’s Pace by Wolf Richter • Mar 19, 2024 • 85 Comments Which devalued the yen by a Third-Worldish 30% against the USD in two years as other central banks hiked in big increments and started QT.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: National House Prices Flat in Feb., -16% from Peak, Condos Drop Further, on Bank of Canada’s 5% & Massive QT by Wolf Richter • Mar 18, 2024 • 65 Comments Toronto condos drop to 28-month low, Vancouver houses -4% from peak in 2022 but condos near high. Calgary houses set new highs.
Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown Fells another Retailer: Joann Inc. Files for Bankruptcy 3 Years after IPO by Wolf Richter • Mar 18, 2024 • 95 Comments The IPO allowed the PE firm that had acquired Joann via an LBO in 2010 to dump the shares into the lap of the public.
Who’s on the Hook for Multifamily CRE Mortgages? #1 Taxpayers, far ahead of #2 Banks by Wolf Richter • Mar 18, 2024 • 94 Comments Another reason why the Fed can let the CRE swoon rip.
Short-Term Treasury Market Walks Away from Rate-Cut Mania, Inflation Has Upper Hand by Wolf Richter • Mar 15, 2024 • 231 Comments One-year yield rose to 5.05% today, highest since December 12.
What the PPI is Telling us: Disinflation in “Core Goods,” a Hefty Counterweight to Hot Services Inflation, May be Over by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2024 • 186 Comments And that’s very disconcerting.
Higher Forever? Even Yellen Starts to Get it: Higher Inflation & Higher Yields Are Here to Stay by Wolf Richter • Mar 13, 2024 • 201 Comments “It seems unlikely that yields are going to go back to being as low as they were before the pandemic”: Yellen.
Why I Started a Finance Website and other Stuff about Banks, Bailouts, the Fed, and Being Pissed Off by Wolf Richter • Mar 13, 2024 • 50 Comments Wolf Richter with Nick Halaris.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, February: Inflation Saga far from Over, Core CPI & Core Services in Ominous 6-Month Trend by Wolf Richter • Mar 12, 2024 • 236 Comments Core services CPI — 61% of total CPI and infamous for historic head fakes — is approaching 6% annualized six-month average.
Fed’s QT Going Forward: the Treasury Maturity Schedule & Roll-off under Current QT Plan, and How a New QT Plan Might Fit by Wolf Richter • Mar 11, 2024 • 162 Comments Treasury QT will naturally slow in June 2025 when the Fed runs out of T-bills. Fed governors have teased us with interesting options.
The Banks: “Unrealized Losses” in Q4, Securities Held by Banks, Bank Failures, and the Dropping Bank Count by Wolf Richter • Mar 10, 2024 • 129 Comments In 2024, some banks will fail. In 2023, five banks failed. In 1989, over 500 banks failed. Since 1936, there were only 5 years without bank failures.